I have reported in the past on the value of the Friday-Monday effect, whereby the bulk of the year's performance can be had through buying the Friday close in the stock market and then selling the Monday close. Well, I have discovered a further distillation of this phenomenon. During 2010, the S&P 500 rose by 143 points. Some 134 points of this was racked up on the first trading day of each month, some 12 days in total. That is 94% of the entire return for the year.
If can see where this is coming from. Many pension and mutual funds are completely devoid of any real trading expertise. So they rely on a 'dumb' dollar cost averaging models to commit funds. In a rising market, like we had for most of last year, this produces an ever rising average cost. More than a few hedge funds have figured this out, front run these executions at the expense of the investors of the other institutions. And you wonder why the public has become so disenchanted with their financial advisors.
The possibilities boggle the mind. Imagine strolling into the office on the last trading day of each month and committing you entire capital line. You then spend the night hoping that a giant asteroid doesn't destroy the earth. You return to your desk at the next day's close, unload everything, and take off on a 30 day vacation. Every month, you come back for a reprise. At the end of the year you top the performance leagues, and retire richer than Croesus. It sounds like a nice 12 day work year to me!
Is It Time to Trade Yet?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/sleep.jpg199300DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2011-11-25 00:05:592011-11-25 00:05:59The 12 Day Year
?Everybody is a day trader now, and a long term hold is three hours,? said noted bank analyst, Dick Bove, of Rochdale Securities.
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The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is taking a break for the next few days to take Turkey with the expanded family. A 28 pound bird made the ultimate sacrifice, and will be accompanied with mashed potatoes, gravy, stuffing, potato salad, mince pie, and a fine Yamhill Chardonnay. I ate an entire pumpkin pie last night just to give my digestive system an early warning that some heavy lifting was on its way.
I am the oldest of seven of the most fractious and divided siblings on the planet, so attending these affairs is always a bit of a challenge. I bet many of my readers are faced with the same dilemma, and they all have my sympathy. Suffice it to say, that we'll be talking a lot about the only two safe subjects there are, sports and the weather.
I will learn that my brother who runs a trading desk at Goldman Sachs has put his new Bentley Turbo R into storage. It seems some Occupy Wall Street types have been keying it whenever he parks on the street. There is talk that the firm will go private again to dodge all of the onerous regulation of Dodd-Frank and the Volker rule.
My born again Christian sister is freshly invigorated by the Tea Party wins last year, and is hoping that Michelle Bachman will grab the White House in 2012. I am banned from mentioning President Obama?s name in her house, or I face having to wash the roasting pan by hand. Mitt Romney is also a ?no go?, who she regards as a cult leader.
My gay rights activist sister will be assertively arguing the case for same sex marriage and celebrating the victory in New York. For me, that means conference facilities for my strategy lunches and seminars have suddenly become abundantly available in San Francisco, now that the gay wedding business has decamped for the Big Apple.
A third sister married to a very pleasant fellow in Big Oil will be making the long trip from Borneo, where he is involved in offshore exploration. No doubt I will get a big serving of ?peak oil? theory with my salad, along with arguments on why we should deregulate our way to more offshore energy supplies here. Hopefully, the local headhunters haven?t taken a trophy yet.
Sister no. 4, who is making a killing in commodities in Australia, and is up to her eyeballs in iron ore, will grace us with a rare visit. She has been investing her profits in serial real estate holdings. Every year I tell her to dump everything because a crash is coming, and every year I am proven wrong. But past experience has taught me that the relatives who insist that real estate can never go down eventually end up moving into my basement.
My poor youngest sister, no. 5, took it on the nose in the subprime derivatives market, and is holding on for a comeback. She is the only member of the family I was not able to convince to sell her house in 2005 to duck the coming real estate collapse because she thought the nirvana would last forever. At least that is what her broker told her.
My two Arabic speaking nephews in Army Intelligence will again delight in telling me that they can't talk about their work or they'd have to kill me. They are awaiting orders for forward deployment. I tell them not to forget to cash out after four years, because their language skills will be worth a fortune in the private sector.
Another nephew will be back from his third tour in Iraq with the First Marine Division without a scratch, God willing. I will tell him not to ?re-up? this time around, as there is no future in his business.
My oldest son works for one of the major Wall Street commercial banks. He is bringing a suitcase full of books so he can cram for the series 7 and series 66 exams. Hey dad, what kind of bonds can a Farmers Credit Union issue? Are those triple exempt? How do I calculate the net after tax yield to maturity?
We will all be thankful that my youngest son wasn?t arrested in the latest round of Occupy Wall Street arrests in Manhattan. Until economic growth picks up and Wall Street starts hiring again, he will remain stranded on the fringe, along with half of his recent graduating class.
My oldest daughter?s response to these hard times has been to get a second master?s degree, this time in education. But with the cash starved West coast states continuing to slash budgets, she can only hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Reading the riot act to this unruly crowd will be my spritely, but hardnosed mother, who gave up taking any crap from us a long time ago. At 83 can still prop herself up on a cane well enough to knock down 14 out of 15 skeet with a shotgun, although we have had to move her down from a 12 gauge to a 410 because the recoil threatened brittle bones. I am looking forward to my annual Scrabble tournament with her, paging my way through old family photo albums between turns.
My next new research pieces will appear in the Tuesday, November 29 letter. That is, if I survive.
The International Monetary Fund announced a new facility for members to address a short term liquidity crisis. The measure is aimed at beleaguered Europeans girding themselves for a steady worsening of their sovereign debt crisis in the hope of ?breaking the chain of contagion.?? But the measure is more of a squirt gun than a bazooka.
Specifically, the IMF has offered 6 month liquidity of up to 500% of member quotas, and 1-2 year liquidity of 1,000%. This means that governments will have more money to buy back their own bonds to support the credit markets, facilitate interbank lending, or to nationalize banks. The international agency is hoping that this strategy will help halt the decline in European lending and halt the alarming shrinkage of the money supply, all bad for an economy clearly headed into recession.
The problem is that the amounts mentioned, some $345 billion, are a mere drop in the bucket when considering the vast scale of Europe?s problems. You can?t solve a leverage problem with even more leverage. And Europe can?t count on any US participation this time around, as the American mood to bail out anyone these days is greatly diminished.
The news was enough to ignite a one cent pop in the Euro up to $1.352, when it then quickly gave back. That leaves my latest short position in the Euro grinding around slightly profitable levels. Remember, I have been dumping all over this currency since it peaked at $1.60 some 2 1/2 years ago, and again when it topped this year at $1.49.
If we get a nice little post-thanksgiving ?RISK ON? rally, as I expect, then I may have to take some heat on the position, as the Euro will almost certainly rally along with everything else. Those who missed my last trade alert should use this as another opportunity to sell, as the medium term outlook for the continental currency is grim, at best.
It Appears the Bailout is Not Working
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Now it?s time for some cultural edification. I first became aware of ?Margin Call? as a pre-production project two years ago when news leaked out that the principal actors, Kevin Stacey, Demi Moore, Stanley Tucci, and Jeremy Irons, were reading the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader to learn about the industry and get in character.
The plot covers a 24-hour period on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis at a fictitious Wall Street house obviously modeled on Lehman Brothers. A strategic downsizing sacks the firm?s risk manager, Stanley Tucci, who casually mentions to a young associate as he carries his cardboard box down the elevator that the firm is on the verge of getting wiped out in the subprime securities market.
A series of emergency, all night meetings ensue. At the last minute, the CEO, John Tuld, not to be confused with Lehman?s Dick Fuld, alights, godlike, on the roof in a helicopter, obviously clueless about what has been going on in his firm, and the instruments involved. The decision is made to dump their entire position at a huge loss at the market opening, even if it means causing the failure of many of the firm?s clients and counterparties.
When the sales staff rebel, they are offered extra million dollar bonuses if the positions are gone by noon. On orgy of predatory salesmanship ensures, which I have seen myself of trading floors a thousand times. In an hour, prices for some bonds drop 40%. The firm lives on to fight another day, but only at the cost of wiping out reputations and ending careers. The CEO has a laugh and flies away.
Those in the business will uncomfortably recognize many of the hard hearted practices, half-truths, and ethical lapses endemic on Wall Street. It really is only about making money and survival of the fittest.
Despite being a total flop at the box office on a limited release, the film is generating a lot of Oscar buzz, and it is certain to garner a handful of nominations. The acting is incredible. So if you have some free time over the holidays, order the DVD on Netflix.? And hey, Kevin baby, have your people call my people and let?s do lunch when I?m in Beverly Hills in January!
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Kevin_Spacey_Margin_Call.jpg266399DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2011-11-23 00:13:102011-11-23 00:13:10Film Review of ?Margin Call"
?Washington got the wrong message from the debt ceiling debate. They got the message that the downgrade didn?t matter very much when it came to the US Treasury?s ability to float debt. It?s the wrong message. We are watching a major economy like Italy having trouble getting financing from international capital markets. One day it will come to the US,? said Federal Reserve Governor James Bullard.
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The volatility index (VIX) is just not buying this sell off. Even with the Dow down over 300 today, the (VIX) has only managed a meager 3% gain on the day. With a move in equities of this magnitude, you would expect volatility to rise by 15% or more. If traders and investors really believed that the risk markets were really going to crash to new lows, they would be paying through the nose to buy downside protection, which would be clearly visible in a (VIX) spike. These figures prove they aren?t.
Let?s do a quickie cross asset class review here and look at what else on the table. The S&P 500 is precisely at the 50% retracement of the entire 200 point move up from October 4. It could hold this level and keep the bull move intact. While junk bonds (HYG) are down, they are nowhere near the levels suggesting that a financial collapse is imminent. Advance decline ratios are at all-time highs, not exactly an argument for a new bear market. Nor are Treasury bonds drinking the Kool-Aide. Sure they are up today, but not as much as they should be.
It all has the makings of an asymmetric trade for me. That means that the next piece of good news will deliver a larger move up than the next piece of bad news will bring a down one. So a tactical long here will bring an outsized returns. It could well be that the failure of the Super committee is fully in the price, and the mere passage of the deadline might bring a big rally. There are certainly a lot of hedge funds looking to chase yearend performance and value players happy to bottom fish to pull this off.
The bulls also have the calendar strongly in their favor. Not only is the November-December period the second strongest bimonthly period of the year, investors are massively underweight equities. As I never tire in explaining to my permabear friends, most investors can?t sell stock they don?t own. That?s why the Armageddon scenario never kicked in during September. That leaves hedge funds and high frequency trading alone to break the downside supports, something they have so far been unable to do alone.
Which girls will get invited to the next dance? The same ones taken to the last one: commodities, energy, rail, coal, and technology stocks, especially Apple, which is sitting bang on its 200 day moving average today.
Of course I could be wrong about all of this. Conditions in the markets are so uncertain here that there are no real high quality trades to be found. Almost everyone is posting negative returns this year, including some of the smartest people I know. That?s why I have pared back my own trading in order to preserve my own 42% year to date gain. But then, I am 75% in cash, so I can afford to take a relaxed view of things.
Only trade here if your wife is pestering you for a larger Christmas shopping budget. Don?t even think about opening up a new short here, because you have already missed the big, easy move. Then again, you could consider getting a new wife. It might be cheaper.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/bear.jpg488650DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2011-11-21 23:03:332011-11-21 23:03:33Watch Out for the Bear Trap
How unpopular is Congress? Freshman senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, who recently compiled the results of a popularity public opinion poll showing how far in the dumps the Congressional reputation has fallen. Only Fidel Castro is more despised than our august representatives on capital hill.
40% IRS
16% BP during the Gulf oil spill
15% Paris Hilton
11% US reverts to communism
9% Congress
5% Fidel Castro
It hasn?t always been this bad. As recently as 2001, congress boasted an approval rating of 65%. Is your representative really liked less than Paris Hilton? Really?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/paris-hilton-chihuahua2.jpg320221DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2011-11-21 23:03:192011-11-21 23:03:19Two Cheers for Paris Hilton
?Europe is really too far away to get the American family to cancel that trip to Disney World. That is the guts of it,? said Federal Reserve Governor James Bullard.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/10-21-1.jpg238297DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2011-11-21 23:02:522011-11-21 23:02:52November 22, 2011 - Quote of the Day
I am writing this from the back of a taxi in Hong Kong?s Central district. My meetings with assorted bankers, hedge fund managers, Taipans, and the press stretched on longer than expected, with the result that I am now stuck in rush hour traffic on the way to the airport. So I might as well use the time productively and sum up my thoughts on my recent trip to China.
When I first cajoled my way into to the Middle Kingdom in the early seventies, it was in the back of a broken down truck carrying bags of wheat, no doubt destined to a thriving black market. We drove down a heavily potholed single lane road that had not seen serious maintenance since the thirties.
The Communist border guards couldn?t have been more hostile, and sneered at my US passport. Chairman Mao was then constantly railing against American imperialists and capitalist roaders to massive crowds of people wearing green, blue, or grey uniforms chanting with little red books in hand. The Korean War, where China lost 2 million men, had ended only 20 years earlier, and bitter memories were still fresh.
I arrived to find a country in utter chaos. Bands of Red Guards were rampaging through the countryside, lynching anyone with a connection to the West, such as university professors or those with a single foreign possession, like a violin. The lucky were simply made to wear dunce caps and paraded down the street where abuse was hurled upon them. Famine was rampant, and authorities were piling up the bodies of those who had starved, burning them with kerosene. Even getting just a single egg to eat was hard work, no matter how rich you were. My paper money was worthless.
Fast forward four decades, and conditions couldn?t be more different. As I waited patiently for an attractive young immigration official to clear me, I noticed a small voting machine asking if I was satisfied with my experience. It showed 4,734 ?yes? votes for that day. I counted 1,000 people a minute crossing the border, squeezing into packed trains that were leaving every 15 minutes. The sheer scale of this human tide was breathtaking. Welcome to the new China.
On this trip, I approached the country from the end of its long distribution chain and worked my way back towards the source, starting in New Zealand, and traveling on to Australia, Singapore, and Hong Kong. The message was the same all the way down the line: China is slowing. I heard countless stories of cancelled orders, reduced volumes, and thinning shipments.
So it was no surprise to me when, one my first day in Shenzhen, a local developer slashed the prices on new condominiums by 25%. This should come as no surprise, as the Chinese government has been determined to slow the economy for the past two years with no less than eight interest rate hikes and 12 bank reserve snuggings. Local residents were surprised when I explained to them that the 5% they were getting on overnight deposits seemed incredibly generous compared to the zero we get at home.
But slowing is not crashing, contrary to the view argued assertively by some prominent hedge fund managers, like Jim Chanos, who constantly refers to ghost cities of unsold real estate easily visible via Google Earth. Well, I checked out those ghost cities. It turns out that the cities in question change every six months. That?s how long it takes the Chinese to fill one city with people and bring another one somewhere else up for sale.
The Chinese essentially have an assembly line for cities which runs 24/7. They are really building a Rome a day. That?s what you would expect in a country that is attempting to bring another 400 million into the modern economy.
What I think is true is that China is in the midst of permanently downshifting from a blistering 11%-13% annualized growth rate to a more sustainable 8%. This is a good thing, and I saw the Japanese economy go through the same teething process over four decades, first growing at 10%, then 7%, 5%, 3%, and finally bottoming out at 1%. More stability in China will lead to less volatility in the global economy. This will be welcomed with open arms by oil and copper traders whose lives have been shortened by the extreme market moves this year.
The good news for the rest of us is that a China with a GDP today of $5.5 trillion today growing at 8% generates far more GDP growth than it did a decade ago with a $1 trillion economy growing at 10-13%. In fact, a China growing at 8% generates much more new GDP ($440 billion) that a US economy growing at 2% ($290 billion). This means that China is still a great investment for the long term.
What if it starts to grow less than an 8% rate? Senior government officials refer to this as the ?red line? below which the risk of political instability rises. No government fears its own people more than China, which refers to its ?bicycle economy?; it must keep moving forward or fall over. And in China they don?t send retiring political leaders off to putter around at country clubs, they put them in front of firing squads.
Fortunately for the health of the current leadership, they have a lot of resources to head off this worst case scenario. China currently has the largest accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in human history, some $3.2 trillion. During the 2008 crash, they implemented a $500 billion emergency stimulus package, which was three times larger than ours on a per capita GDP basis, and they had a second one on the shelf which they never had to use.
The country now has enough savings to execute six such packages to head off a hard landing, or even a substantial slow down. This is not idle speculation. The budgets have already been drawn up with triggers ready to pull. They involve spreading the country?s impressive modernization inland from the coast to enfranchise more of the population.
Of course, such action would be massively inflationary and require inconveniences like making the Yuan, or Renminbi (CYB), a freely floating and exchangeable currency. Development of a serious secondary renminbi (or people?s currency) bond market would also be a big help. But these liberalizations are eventually going to happen anyway (by 2015?). There is also the additional benefit in that this would help pacify the 2.3 million strong People?s Liberation Army, which is largely recruited from the countryside and is unhappy with the unequal distribution of the country?s wealth. Sound familiar?
This will fundamentally change the investment targets in the Middle Kingdom. Huge fortunes have been made investing in Chinese Internet and export companies. Go no further than my own call to buy Baidu (BIDU) at $12 three years ago, 10% of its current value, by clicking here. In the future the focus will shift to firms capitalizing on the growth of the domestic economy.
None of this makes the Middle Kingdom immune from the ?RISK ON?/?RISK OFF? paradigm that has the world?s financial markets marching up and down in lockstep. As long as the global economic and political scene is jittery, Chinese financial assets are going to trade just as poorly as everyone else?s. But when emerging markets catch a bid that lasts more than a day, China (FXI) will be a good place to be.
Will you Take a 2 Bed, 2 Bath With a Hot Tub?
My hedge fund friends in Shenzhen asked what I needed in a translator and guide to accompany me on my local forays. I said that I required someone who could walk at least ten miles on the city streets on the 90 degree heat, and be prepared to ask the price of everything and everything.
The next morning a diminutive young woman showed up at my hotel wearing an imitation pair of Nike?s and a cheap polyester suit. She told me that she migrated to the city from a small village eight hours away by train after learning English from the radio. I quickly discovered that she free lanced for local hedge funds as a research analyst. Not only did she know where all of my target companies were, she had cousins working at all of them. Talk about a total home run.
At the top of my list was a visit to a fake Apple (AAPL) store. She looked perplexed, and then told me she would not take me to a single store, but an entire city where every business sold the full range of Apple products, from IPhones, to iPods, tablets, and iMacs. Sure enough, I found a building downtown with at least 500 such businesses. They were even offering products that Apple itself hadn?t invented yet. Want a G5s iPhone for $75? No problem.
An iPhone G5? No problem
At one dinner the country?s second largest furniture maker told me of his hugely successful strategy of offshoring manufacturing from China to Vietnam, where labor is one third the cost. This means that the automation and globalization that has decimated America?s labor force was now turning full circle and coming back to haunt Chinese workers. If he can replace 1,000 men with a single high end machine imported from Germany, he will do it in a heartbeat. He then whisked me off to a karaoke bar in his brand new, yellow, Ferrari 360.
As modern as China is, you still stumble across pockets of the 19th century. Prostitution is absolutely rampant, with the hotels posting security guards at the front door to keep them at bay. I will not delve into this topic in any detail so as not to offend my female readers. Suffice it to say that the current market price for virgins is $150, but are probably as authentic as the $75 Apple G5 iPhones.
Not All of China is Modern
On my last evening in the Middle Kingdom, a state dinner was given in my honor thanking me for 40 years of service to the People?s Republic of China. As the evening drew to a drunken close, I thanked my hosts and outlined the broad sweep of my family?s connection with China over the past century.
I once listened with rapt attention as Alice Roosevelt Longworth, President Teddy?s oldest daughter, described the wreckage in the wake of the short-lived 1900 Boxer Rebellion. Senate majority leader, Mike Mansfield, told me of the sweating Chinese coolies who carried bags of coal onto his cruiser when it docked in Shanghai in 1920.
Veteran AP correspondent, Roy Essoyan, riveted younger correspondents at the Tokyo Press Club with a blow by blow account of the Japanese invasion of Shanghai?s foreign quarter in 1937. My dear friend, Al Pinder, head of the OSS in China during WWII, described how children working in sweatshops in China during the thirties dipped tiny, but deeply scarred hands into boiling water to fish out silk cocoons.
My Uncle, Mitchell Paige, recalled his adventures as a young Marine on gunboat duty on the Yangtze in 1935. He later fought off massed waves of Chinese attackers when his First Marine Division conducted its infamous frozen retreat from Chosen Reservoir in Korea in 1950.
The First McDonalds in China
When I came on the scene, the Chinese initially treated me as a capitalist tool and CIA spy, while the FBI viewed me as a communist sympathizer, opening my mail for years. For all I know they still do. When I asked Premier Zhou Enlai about the long term impact of the French Revolution, he responded that ?it was too early to say.? When
I queried Generalissimo Chiang Kai-Shek why he continued his stubborn 50 year battle to wipe out the communists, he responded simply that ?the sky cannot have two suns.? My impudence didn?t prevent him from introducing me to his wife, the lovely Madame Chiang Kai-Shek, one of the Soong sisters famed for being the most beautiful women in China.
I mentioned that the scar on my hip still itched whenever the weather changed. That?s the one left from a slug fired from a Chinese supplied AK-47 in the jungles of Cambodia.
In 1978, I questioned Deng Xiaoping, the father of modern China, when he would allow free emigration. He responded ?Feeding our people is our biggest problem. How many do you want? 20 million? 30 million? I?ll give them to you.?
In the late 1990?s I became an unofficial advisor to the Chinese government on their financial and economic modernization efforts, meeting regularly with friends at the Ministry of Finance and the People?s Bank of China. More than once I responded with ?You want to do what?? as they outlined grandiose plans for a nationwide network of bullet trains, 200 nuclear power plants, the damming of the Yangtze at Three Gorges, and building new cities to accommodate a half billion people. Needless to say, I told any of my hedge fund friends who would listen, this represented the investment opportunity of the century.
I finished by saying that over four decades, I had known the Chinese as both friends and enemies, and definitely preferred the former. It?s better to trade than to fight. I believe they felt the same way. The younger people sitting around the table sat there with their jaws dropped.
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