The telltale signs were suddenly everywhere.

The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) membership cards appeared, unsolicited, in the mail.? People have started giving up their seat to me whenever I ride BART, especially when I need a haircut.

And recently, I have found those never ending TV ads about drugs dealing with arthritis, Alzheimers and erectile dysfunction utterly fascinating.

There is no denying the calendar. Soon, I will be reaching the US retirement age of 65.

For much of my life, retirement was the furthest thing from my mind, given the way I lived it. In fact, many of my friends and family doubted that I would ever make it past 30, when I published my first book.

My life passed before my eyes during multiple mountain climbing accidents in the High Sierras, the Alps, and the Himalayas. Damn those used ropes!

The Vietnamese had their shot when I caught a landmine in Cambodia. Thanks to them, I still set off metal detectors (especially the one at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland).

The assorted tropical diseases I did catch there probably will take decades off my life. Doctors still find my X-rays puzzling.

I certainly thought I had bought the farm while crashing a variety of planes in Paris, Austria and Sicily.

Saddam Hussein had his go when his troops riddled my plane with bullet holes over Kuwait in 1991. It?s a good thing that I crash aircraft better than anyone I know. That?s important, because they don?t let you practice crashing during flight school.

But somehow the Purple Heart I earned doesn?t seem worth it when my heavy backpack reminds me that I?m missing a lower disc. Thank goodness for hot baths and Advil!

Then there was that time last winter at 12,000 feet in the High Sierras when I got caught in the dark, a ferocious blizzard with 80 mile per hour gusts and 10 degree temperatures.

My GPS froze, so I had to navigate my way back down the mountain with infrequent tree blazes and an old fashioned WWII army compass.

I over estimated the effectiveness of my new snow shoes and underestimated my ability to wade through four feet of fresh powder. In the end I was so exhausted that had to fall down the last slope to get to my car.

Then I discovered that my keys were also frozen and I couldn?t get in the car. After sitting on them for 15 minutes, the parking lights suddenly blinked and I barely made it out alive.

But I digress.

Given the approach of The Big Number, I thought it was time to call my accountant.

I love my accountant. For most of my working life he made sure I never paid a tax rate over 14.9%, taking advantage of the ?carried interest? treatment afforded fortunate and well-connected hedge fund managers.

It was only when I got into the newsletter business eight years ago that I had to pay the full ticket 39.5% rate the rest of the masses get stuck with. However, he keeps magically coming up with tax goodies for me.

I got $10,000 worth of tax gifts when I bought my all-electric Tesla Model S-1.

And this year?s tax return promises to deliver a double windfall from my new solar roof panel system. That includes a 30% alternative energy investment tax credit and full deductibility of the interest on the loan used to pay for it (which will be the subject of a future research piece).

And despite many government attempts to do so, he has successful kept me out of jail. Besides, locking me up in a Federal facility would be unkind to the other inmates, not to mention the poor guards.

My accountant has even promised to snow shoe with me in the High Sierras this winter. I'm still waiting.

But now I?m rambling.

So I asked my accountant how best to game the Social Security System once I am eligible. I have done much for the United States government, it would be nice if I got a little something back.

He asked me if I was married. I answered that I wasn?t, but that I could be. What?s it worth to me?

It was then that he told me about the Great Social Security Marriage Loophole.

It is this simple.

I actually qualified for retirement when I was 62. But if I had done so, I would have received discounted benefits. I will qualify for full retirement benefits at 66 1/2.

Since I have paid in my maximum Social Security taxes for my entire life, I will be eligible to receive $24,000 a year, or $2,000 a month. However, if I delay my retirement until 70 1/2, my benefits will increase by 32% to $31,680 a year.

Here comes the good part.

I can retire now, and then immediately ?file and suspend? my benefits. This is a simple one page form anyone can complete on the IRS.gov website.

That will allow me to suspend receiving my benefits, enabling them to continue to increase to the $31,680 maximum over the next five years.

Since I don?t need the money anyway, and $2,000 a month barely buys you a cup of coffee at Starbucks in the San Francisco Bay area, it was a no-brainer.

In the meantime, my ?wife? can apply for her own benefits and receive 50% of the value my benefits immediately, while my own suspended benefits continue to grow.

Not many people know about this benefit. In fact, The Great Social Security Marriage Loophole is one of the best-kept secrets of the entire Social Security system.

So, I asked my accountant how old my future ?wife? had to be to be before she could retire and claim the marriage benefit freebie. He said 62.

I said ?Sorry, that wouldn?t work for me.? For a spouse to keep up with me at 12,000 feet in a blinding snowstorm, she would have to be at least ten or twenty years younger than me.

By the time she retired, I would be 72 or 82, the suspense period long having since expired.

Anyway, I find the prospect of getting married again is somewhat daunting. And as you can well imagine, the pool of 42-52 year old women willing to subject themselves to flying lead, tropical diseases, plane crashes and permanent jet lag is somewhat limited.

You see, I?m not an easy person to be around.

Did he have any other ideas?

He did mention that I could apply for my Medicare benefits three months before I turn 65. If I applied for benefits more than six months after I turn 65, I could be subject to hefty penalties.

Go figure.

Yes, you might conclude that only a complete maniac could live a lifestyle like this and get away with it, and my mother would agree with you.

But how else could I make a piece about obscure Social Security rules interesting?

John Thomas-Vintage CarIn Search of the Lost Benefit

Global Market Comments
March 11, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APRIL 22 NEW YORK GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(SUPER MARIO DELIVERS . . . AND THEN HE DOESN?T),
(FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (IWM),
(MARCH 16 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR)

CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)

Well that went over like a lead balloon!

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi bet the ranch that an aggressive round of quantitative easing would crash the Euro (FXE), (EUO) against the dollar and rescue the continental economy.

He certainly didn?t pull any punches. We didn?t just get one bazooka, we got three.

In a press conference that had the world waiting on pins and needles, the wily Italian announced that deposit interest rates would get cut from negative 0.3% to negative 0.4%. Nope, that?s not a typo.

Central bank bond buying will be ratcheted up from ?60 to ?80 billion a month. Furthermore, the planned life of European QE was extended to April 2017.

And what did the beleaguered continental currency do? After gapping down to the bottom of a multi month trading range, it carried out its large move UP in history, with the (FXE) soaring from $106.10 to $109.70.

Go figure.

Mario Draghi must be tearing his hair out. All of his efforts towards monetary control had the exact opposite of the desired effect.

My European summer vacation just got more expensive.

Some forex participants pointed to Draghi?s ill-advised statement that ?We don?t anticipate it will be necessary to further reduce rates.?

Thanks to my three years of Italian, I can tell you what he really said. ?This is all you?re getting baby. You ain?t getting any more stinking QE.?

A slap across the face with a wet kipper would have been more welcome. So was the crash of the Hindenburg. Thank goodness I only trade foreign exchange part time for laughs.

The stock market didn?t have to be told twice what to do. With volatility that is now becoming all too familiar, it performed a perfect $309 Dow point swan dive.

Of course, I saw all this coming a mile off (I didn?t really), going into the announcement with a quadruple short position in stocks with the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM).

I though Mr. Mario would disappoint with no new QE whatsoever, thus crashing the markets.

Hey, I?ll take a (SPY) $3.69 move in my favor anyway I can get it. Certainly my many new followers appreciate it.

I stopped at the bank this afternoon to get some cash. The branch manager knew I was an international financial wizard in addition to being the most interesting man in the world, so she asked me how negative interest rates work.

I explained that if you deposit $1 million with a bank at a negative 0.4% interest rate, a year later your deposit would be worth only $996,000.

?Really?? she asked.

?Really,? I answered.

I think the message here is that our lives as traders are going to continue dull, mean, and brutish for the foreseeable future, at least until the second half of the year.

The only way to make money is to trade devoid of the thought process.

If its up, sell it. If it?s down, buy it. Over think things, and you will find yourself in a world of sushi.

FXE
SPY
Mario

Mr. Mario Strikes Again

?Just because we removed the word ?patient? doesn?t mean that we are going to be impatient,? said my friend, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. That is pure Janet. I feel like I?m back at Berkeley.

Janet Yellen.

Global Market Comments
March 10, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APRIL 21 BOSTON GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(NINE REASONS WHY VOLATILITY IS SO HIGH),
(VIX), (SPX),
(THE BUY AND FORGET PORTFOLIO),
(SPY), (IXUS), (EEM), (VNQ), (TLT), (TIP)

VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
S&P 500 (^GSPC)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares Core MSCI Total Intl Stk (IXUS)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)

After years of steadily upward grinding markets, we have suddenly seen three stock market shakeouts of more than 10% over the past six months.

The Volatility Index (VIX) has spiked over $50 once and $30 on three separate occasions during the same time period.

What gives?

Is the bull market over? Is it time to don your hard hat and hide out in a bunker? Should we start stockpiling canned food, water, and ammo once again?

Hardly.

Those of us who have been around for a handful of decades have seen all this before. After several years, markets just get tired of going up.

Traders look at their S&P 500 (SPX) charts and think, ?holy moly, the index has just tripled off its $667 bottom! SELL!?

Investors look at their charts and think ?Wow, markets have been going up for seven years now! Isn?t this where a recession usually kicks in? SELL!?

In fact, markets can go down for no other reason than they have been going up for too long, earnings be damned. The bear market becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The problem is that these days, high frequency traders, complex derivatives enabling massive leverage, the rise of ETF?s, the disappearance of intermediaries, and scaredy cat day traders put a turbocharger on every single move.

However, this year we seem to have more than the usual numbers of things to worry about.

I will list them in order of importance. Caution: you may not have heard of several of these.

1) The retirement of 85 million baby boomers is still the biggest drag on risk assets everywhere. Retirement brings a shift in investment preferences away from equities and towards fixed income, and a major downsizing of consumption. They are a huge drag on the economy. This will continue for six more years.

2) The Federal Reserve?s monetary policy of quantitative easing gave us all free money to buy everything, especially stocks. Since it ended in October, 2014 stocks have flat lined within a broad range. Expect this to continue until the next real recession, which could be years off.

3) The hangover of the 2008 crash is still with us. People are so nervous about a return of the bad old days that they are saving more than usual. This is why consumers aren?t spending their gas savings. It?s also why the housing recovery got such a late start. An entire generation of Millennials has deferred family formation and consumption by about five years. Many people will NEVER buy stocks again, similar to what their ancestors did after the 1929 crash.

4) America is almost alone around the world with a reasonably growing economy. The rest of the planet, including Europe, Japan, China, the Middle East, and emerging nations, are all suffering from a slowdown. This acts as a big drag on the US economy, as the demand for our exports shrink.

5) Since this is an election year, some $8 billion will be spent to convince you how terrible economic conditions are. Never mind that the claims are largely false. This IS having a negative effect on investor sentiment. When this onslaught runs out of money in the fall, expect to start hearing about the ?Clinton Rally? that will take stocks to new all time highs. You heard it here first. Oh, and by the way, Donald Trump scares the living daylights out of the entire business and investment community.

6) Have you noticed that sub $2.00 gas at the pump lately? Well, the people who sell us the oil that made that gas don?t have as much money as they used to. How much money? Oh, about $1 trillion. And what do they have to sell to cover their newfound deficits? US stocks, especially bank and technology shares, and of course Apple (AAPL).

7) OK, so you?re one of those people who absolutely HAS to have something to worry about. There is a catch all category of Syria/ISIS/Iran/Libya/Yemen/Somalia that will keep you awake at night and out of the stock market. As a person who is in near weekly contact with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I can assure you that the existential threat to the US from this source is zero. Blame it all on the failure of the Ottoman Empire to reform during the 19th century.

8) Want more reasons to toss and turn at night? You could obsess about the rise of China and a newly aggressive Russia. But do you really think one of these countries is inclined to blow up their largest source of earnings and technology? I don?t think so.

9) A giant asteroid will destroy the earth. Don?t worry, the next big one isn?t due until 2032, by which time I will be retired, and entirely in cash.

$spx
$vix
john

Last Night at 8,000 Feet

?Good fortune is often more fatal than adversity,? said the 18th century German emperor, Frederick the Great.

Frederick the Great

Global Market Comments
March 9, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APRIL 15 HOUSTON STRATEGY LUNCHEON INVITATION),
(SO, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?),

(SPY), (USO), (CU), (GLD), (GDX),
(SLV), (SIL), (FXA), (FXC),
(DIAMONDS ARE STILL AN INVESTOR?S BEST FRIEND),
(NILE)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
United States Oil (USO)
First Trust ISE Global Copper ETF (CU)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar ETF (FXA)
CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar ETF (FXC)

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting in Houston, Texas on Friday, April 15, 2016.

A three course lunch will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too.

Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $238.

I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a private downtown Houston club, the address of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets, click here.

houston_night2

I always encourage readers to send in questions.

My late mentor, CIA chief William Colby, taught me that questions are always more valuable than answers. Knowing what the enemy doesn?t know is more useful that knowing what they do know.

And this is from a guy who organized the French resistance during WWII, so he should know.

So when a follower asked yesterday what to do with our remaining position in the S&P 500 (SPY) April $182 puts, I leapt on him like a mountain lion.

The short answer is that you keep them, and I?ll tell you why.

The answer is to be found in two words:

IRON ORE

Let me tell you about iron ore. It rusts, and once you get it under your fingernails, you never get it out.

Yesterday, iron ore rocketed by 20%. Iron ore never rockets by 20%. A big daily move for the rusty metal is usually 1%. To see a 20% move means that something weird is going on.

It wasn?t just iron ore.

Look at the recent charts for oil (USO), copper (CU), gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX), silver (SLV), silver miners (SIL), the commodity currencies of the Aussie and the Loonie (FXA), (FXC), and they are all virtually identical.

They show a classic inverse head and shoulders bottom followed by a parabolic move to the upside.

You may recall that in my 2016 Annual Asset Class Review I predicted that energy would be the top performing sector of 2016 (click here).

Gosh! I hate being so right.

However, there is a problem with this picture. Some 100% of this frenetic buying has been short covering.

And therein lies the problem.

Short coverers can?t create new bull markets. Once they buy back the securities they bet were going down, they tend to sit on their hands.

That is only enough buying to move the indexes back up to the top of the recent ranges AND NO MORE. There is not enough money to blast prices to new all time highs.

For that you need substantially improving corporate earnings. What we HAVE are flat to modestly growing earnings instead. This is NOT what bull markets are made of.

Let me give you another reason why this is a rally you do NOT want to take home and introduce to your mother.

Take a look at the chart below for the Dow Average, which I fudged from my friend, Dennis Gartman?s, newsletter and you will see that every rally for the past six months has taken place in the face of falling volume.

Now, back to Trading 101.

Rallies that succeed and breakout to the upside do so on rising volume. Rallies that fail and breakdown to new lows do so on falling volume. That?s the kind of rally we have just seen: the bad kind.

Bad rally! Bad rally!

Not only that, every rally we have seen across all asset classes has been the bad kind, except for gold.

That means this rally will fail as well. It?s just a matter of time. I expect we will churn around here for a bit, sucking in the last few remaining short positions.

Then, when there are no more shorts left, it?s time to take the downtown express one more time.

There is a happy ending to this story. I don?t think we are going to new lows this time around. At the very most we will give up one third to one half of the recent move up, or $7 to $20 S&P 500 (SPY) points.

That will set up a tortuous, mind numbing, hair tearing six-month sideways wedge of higher lows and lower highs in the major stock indexes. Like the victim of a Mike Tyson punch, volatility (VIX) will fall and stay down.

Then in August, investors will start to figure out that Hillary Clinton is going the win the presidential election.

What happened the last time a Clinton took over the White House? The Dow Average rose 400% in the following eight years. Remember Dow 10,000 by 2,000? That was them.

And you know what? We will get the same kind of stock performance in the next eight years. At least this is how investors will perceive the opportunity.

All of this is a very long-winded way of explaining why I sold short the Russell 2000 today, at least through April.

In falling markets you want to be short small caps. They get much more beaten up during economic slowdowns, don?t have access to new equity or banks loans, and suffer from poor liquidity.

Just thought you?d like to know.

DJIA
SPY
JOHN

Time to Bring in the Big Guns