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Hot Tips
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Nvidia Earnings Roar, Stock Whimpers.
Maintaining a profit margin at an incredible 75% is unbelievable for a $4 trillion company. But shares can’t go up for the most over-owned company in the world if there are no new buyers. In the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Jan. 25, revenue gained 73% to $68.1 billion. Profit was $1.62 a share, excluding certain items. Analysts had predicted $65.9 billion in sales and $1.53 a share in earnings. Avoid (NVDA) stock, which hasn’t moved in six months.
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Diageo (DGE.L) Dives 13%,
the world’s biggest seller of alcoholic spirits, as the trade war tears its business apart. Weaker demand from North America and China had impacted earnings in its fiscal first quarter. Net sales declined by 4% to $10.5 billion in the six months to December, as the company cited "pressure on disposable income impacting US Spirits. Operating profit was also 1.2% lower at $3.1 billion.
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Rolls Royce Rocks,
on record demand for its aircraft engines. The aerospace giant is targeting an underlying operating profit of between £4 billion and £4.2 billion in 2026, above the midpoint of £3.65 billion as expected by analysts polled by FactSet. It expects free cash flow of between £3.6 billion and £3.8 billion this year, also above expectations. Buy Boeing (BA) on dips, a major engine buyer.
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A Reorienting of Berkshire Hathaway is at Hand.
Berkshire Hathaway's new Chief Executive, Greg Abel, faces numerous challenges as the successor to famed billionaire Warren Buffett. Buffett, 95, stepped down at year-end, concluding six decades in which he transformed a failing textile company into a more than $1 trillion conglomerate that owns several insurers, the BNSF railroad, and dozens of energy, industrial, and retail businesses. A new strategy will be laid out in a general meeting. Avoid (BRK/B) for now.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Come in Flat.
The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased marginally last week, and the unemployment rate appeared to hold steady in February amid a stable labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended February 21, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
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Morgan Stanley Raises Gold Target to $6,300 for 2026.
Spot gold has risen by about 20% this year, hitting a three-week high of $5,248.89 an ounce on Tuesday. It hit a record peak of $5,594.82 on January 29. That followed a 2025 surge of more than 64% in the metal widely regarded as a safe-haven investment. The bank noted that it remains firmly bullish on gold prices through 2026 and still sees a continued structural diversification trend into the metal, which it says has further room to run.
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Mortgage Applications are Flat at 0.4%.
Total mortgage application volume was essentially flat, rising just 0.4% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. High prices and a shortage of inventory are the problems.
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Dump Coders, Buy Builders,
says UBS. The threat to software-backed businesses from artificial intelligence should prompt investors to shift focus from technology to companies that toil in the physical world, like miners, power producers, and industrial firms, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities and chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Wealth Management. They’re called “HALO” stocks.
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China Shipping Data Highlights Record US Tariff Evasion.
Phantom importers, sky-high tariffs, and suspiciously cheap shipping offers are fueling a surge in trade fraud, leaving law-abiding American businesses to foot the bill. Fueled by aggressive Chinese logistics tactics and the highest duties in a century, the suspected evasion is blunting Trump’s trade agenda while penalizing compliant companies.
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Iran Ramps Up Oil Tanker Loadings to China,
to front-run a US war. Exports from Kharg Island from Feb. 15 to 20 were at nearly 20.1 million barrels. That’s almost three times the amount loaded over the same dates in January and the equivalent of more than 3 million barrels a day, far beyond Tehran’s usual daily rate. The increase comes as the US amasses the largest fighting force in the Middle East since the second Gulf War in 2003. Don’t buy oil (USO) on the outbreak of war, it may be the peak.
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Meta Makes Major Investment in AMD,
sending the shares soaring. Meta Platforms Inc. will deploy data center gear based on processors from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. in a deal worth “double-digit billions” of dollars per gigawatt. Meta will buy AMD chips and computers designed to run artificial intelligence models over a five-year stretch, beginning in the second half of 2026, and will receive warrants to buy 160 million AMD shares. The agreement is part of Meta's efforts to "aggressively front-load" computing capacity, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg making AI the company's top priority and pledging to devote hundreds of billions of dollars to the effort.
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AI May Wipe Out Large Swaths of the White-Collar Industry,
causing investors to dump shares in a broad range of sectors. The so-called AI scare trade has become a dominant theme for stocks, with selling spreading beyond software to hit insurance brokers, private credit, and even real estate services. The flight is one of several shifts beneath the surface of a US market that is little changed in 2026 after years of tech-led gains.
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Bitcoin is Headed for New Lows,
breaking $63,000 overnight. A new Golden Age of short selling has begun, with Strategy (MSTR) the most shorted stock in the world, with 12.31% of the float on loan for selling. The company’s strategy depended on an endless supply of unquestioning retail buyers, which has recently evaporated.
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There Will be a Financial Crisis in 2036,
or so says the bond market. longer-term 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields show more modest declines, indicating growing concerns about future federal deficits, despite three Fed interest rate cuts last year. The 10y10y forward rate, now 5.62273%, has risen 0.535 percentage points, signaling increasing long-term fiscal risk and debt concerns. Avoid all government bonds (TLT).
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The US is Looking at its First Population Decline.
In the year prior to July 1, 2025, the US Census reported this week that the population grew by only 0.5%, or 1.8 million people, its lowest growth since the pandemic. The main cause for the significant slowdown was a collapse in net migration to 1.3 million from a peak of 2.7 million in the year prior to July 2024. In that most recent period, there were 519,000 more births than deaths, according to the new Census figures. That surplus is shrinking, however. By 2030, it’s likely to disappear altogether, making the US entirely dependent on immigration for population growth. Mass deportation of immigrants are a major cause. So are the $25,000 a year child costs. Young couples can’t afford to have kids. No new kids now means no consumers or economic growth in 20 years.
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Supreme Court Tariff Decision May be Out on Friday.
If not this Friday, then certainly the next one. If they rule against tariffs, the US economy will be put through a meat grinder once again, and stocks will dive. The US national debt will rocket. Oh, and you, the consumer, are owed $500 million.
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US Trade Deficit Explodes.
The U.S. trade deficit swelled in December, closing out a year in which the imbalance was essentially unchanged despite efforts by the Trump administration to close the wide gap. Closing out a tumultuous year in the global marketplace, the goods and services in December totaled $70.3 billion, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That marked an increase of $17.3 billion from November and was well above the Dow Jones consensus estimate of $55.5 billion.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Plunge.
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with a stabilizing labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,0000 for the week ended February 14, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Last week's drop marked a significant decline in claims since they jumped to 232,000 at the end of January.
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Solar Abandons Silver,
as costs soar. Copper is much cheaper. Solar panel producers are intensifying efforts to replace silver with alternatives such as copper after silver rallied 130% over the past year, squeezing margins already under pressure from production overcapacity, particularly in China. Silver is the greatest contributor to the increased cost of manufacturing solar panels. The cost of solar panels has increased 7-15% over the last 12 months.
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Pending Home Sales Dive.
Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in January, with realtors blaming low housing inventory. The pending home sales index dropped 0.8% last month to 70.9, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, rising 1.3%.
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AI Worries Still Drag on the Market.
US equity futures declined as artificial-intelligence concerns damped sentiment, with Wall Street poised to resume trading after a holiday break. US Treasuries (TLT) edged higher, and gold slid. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 index retreated 0.8%, and those on the S&P 500 dipped 0.4% as all members of the Magnificent Seven US tech stocks declined in premarket trading. A gauge of perceived risk in US high-grade corporate credit reached its highest since Nov. 25. Spot gold dropped toward $4,900 an ounce.
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Silver Dives 2%.
Silver and gold fell in early premarket trading on Tuesday as investors awaited delayed economic data, with little geopolitical news during the holiday-shortened week. Silver ETFs, including ProShares Ultra Silver, were down 7% in premarket, while iShares Silver Trust and ABRDN physical silver fell just over 3%. This is probably the dip you buy, as everything else looks terrible.
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Oil Rises 1%,
as Iran-US nuclear talks continue. Why are we having nuclear talks when the US destroyed all its weapons-grade uranium in a bombing raid? All oil rallies are temporary as massive supply will hit the market on a Venezuela output recovery and a Ukraine peace deal. Avoid all oil plays.
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Airbnb Jumps 5%,
after it became the latest travel company to point to resilient premium demand as budget-conscious customers pull back. Hotel operators Marriott (MAR) and Hilton (HLT), and airlines such as United (UAL) and Delta (DAL) are banking on resilient demand from high-end travelers in 2026, a trend that reflects a worsening K-shaped economy in the U.S.
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Why has Volatility Suddenly Increased?
About 30% of S&P 500 stocks moved over 20% in three months, double the 15% average, despite low market volatility. AI demand boosts chip makers, while software stocks have crashed; commodity miners and some consumer discretionary stocks also have fallen. Increased inflows into hedge funds, with $3.5 billion in stock purchases this year, are exacerbating extreme stock price movements.
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