Archive
Hot Tips
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April 30, 2025
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Massive Put Buy Hits the Market Today,
by the $20 billion JP Morgan Chase as Hedged Equity Fund rolls forward short positions. That may explain the very low opening we got this morning with the volatility spike.
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MicroStrategy Issues 10% Yielding Preferred Stock,
to buy more crypto. The securities are not rated, but if they were, they would be considered low-rated junk. The issue is unprecedented as the company has no earnings to guarantee dividend payments. (MSTR) already owns $40 billion worth of crypto, which has dropped 50% from the November peak and is one of the worst-performing stocks of 2025. This is the biggest Ponzi scheme in history, but it may double first. Sell (MSTR) on rallies.
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Hedge Funds are Still Dumping Technology Stocks,
as they still command big premiums in the main market. The most heavily owned stocks, like Tesla and Nvidia, are falling the fastest. Hedge funds were retreating at a time when the macroeconomic environment suddenly grew less certain. The president's aggressive tariff charges on imports into the U.S. stoked fears of dampened consumer spending, slower economic growth, and even a recession.
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Vaccine Stocks Get Nailed,
as the FDA moves to eliminate the vaccine establishment. Expect stocks to fall and disease to rise. The Food and Drug Administration's top vaccine official, Peter Marks, had been forced to resign, the most high-profile exit at the regulator as the Trump administration undertakes an overhaul of federal health agencies.
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Gold Stocks in Comex Warehouses Hit Record high,
due to the risk of import tariffs curtailing shipments to the United States from other countries. Latest data from Comex, part of CME Group, shows gold stored in its warehouses in the United States at an all-time high of 43.3 million troy ounces worth $135 billion at current prices compared with 17.1 million in November. Spot gold prices surged past $3,100 per ounce to a fresh record high on Monday. Bullion is up 19% so far this year after rising 27% in 2024. Buy (GLD) on dips.
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April 29, 2025
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What were the Three Worst Performing Trump Stocks?
Thank goodness I didn’t recommend any “BUYS” in Decker Outdoor (DECK), which led the S&P 500 down with a 48% plunge during this period. The profit margins were too low for me, even pre-trade war. The Ugg and Hoka maker buys most of its products from China. Robot builder Teradyne (TER) was down 44%, and lithium miner Albermarle (ALB) is off 40%.
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JOLTS Job Openings Report was Unchanged in March at 7.1 Million,
said the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed a little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) were unchanged, and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) edged down.
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Pizza Demand is Collapsing!
Or so says Domino's Pizza, the largest seller of the Italian treat. The company posted a surprise decline in first-quarter same-store sales in its biggest market, as elevated inflation and economic uncertainty hit consumer appetite for restaurant food. Never ignore the pizza index!
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S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Slows to 3.9% YOY,
in February, a sharp slowdown. Home prices are increasingly untenable to potential home buyers. Waning consumer confidence, heightened insecurity over economic uncertainties, and the future of household budgets are impacting the consumer housing market. New York (7.7%), Chicago (7.0%), and Cleveland (6.6%) show the biggest gains, while Tampa showed a (1.4%) loss. Expect real estate to remain a major drag on the US economy, with mortgage rates at 7.0%.
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Amazon May Break Out the Trump Tariffs on Invoices,
to show that the extra tax is going to the government and not them. The White House responded explosively, calling it “a hostile political act.” As for me, I’m all for full disclosure. Amazon already breaks out state sales taxes.
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April 28, 2025
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California is Now the World’s Fourth Largest Nation.
The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook data for 2024 found that California had a nominal gross domestic product of $4.1 trillion, after the US, China, and Germany, but surpassing Japan. Some 40% of all American corporate profits now emanate from the Golden State thanks to its dominance in technology.
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Tops 17% Gain This Year.
The Class A shares, now around $795,000 and near a record, are up 40,000-fold from around $20 in 1965, when Buffett took control of a struggling textile company and began his run as Berkshire’s leader. Berkshire has stood out in a year when many are moaning about losses in their equity portfolios. The stock is up 17%, besting the S&P 500 by 23 points, the widest margin since 2007. Buy (BRK/B) on dips.
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Bitcoin ETF’s Suck in $3.5 Billion Last Week,
as the “Sell America” trade expands. Exchange-traded funds tracking Bitcoin and Ether attracted more than $3.2 billion last week, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) alone seeing a nearly $1.5 billion inflow — the most this year.
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Big Cap Tech Sells Off,
going into earnings. The Q1 earnings will be good, it’s the guidance that traders are terrified about. Apple’s (AAPL) guidance is likely to be apocalyptic.
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Crude Oil Drops on Global Recession Fears.
Brent crude futures were down $1.09, or 1.63%, at $65.78 a barrel, as of 1522 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.15, or 1.82%, to $61.87 a barrel. The U.S.-China trade war is dominating investor sentiment in moving oil prices, superseding nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, and discord within the OPEC+ coalition. Markets have been rocked by conflicting signals from the U.S. over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war that threatens to sap global growth.
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April 25, 2025
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Consumer Confidence Dives on Tariff Fears.
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said on Friday its Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 52.2 this month. While that was an improvement from a reading of 50.8 two weeks ago, the index was down sharply from 57.0 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the final index reading unchanged at 50.8.
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China Relaxes Some Tariffs,
in a modest easing of the trade war. China's government is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment and industrial chemicals like ethane. Authorities are also discussing waiving the tariff for plane leases, as Chinese carriers pay leasing fees to third-party companies to use some jets. Stocks didn’t care.
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New Home Sales Jump,
in March. The median price of a new home sold is down 7.5% YOY, thanks to greater demand for lower-priced homes. Interest rates delivered a short-term dip in March, which they gave back in April. Sales are fading in April as fears over the economy grow.
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Amazon Beats,
after the company topped Wall Street estimates and showed growth in its advertising and search business. The company suggested that it’s too soon to tally the impact of Trump’s tariffs, but the ending of the de minimis loophole could create a “slight headwind” to its advertising business. The interesting number was Amazon's estimate of a potential market size of 4 billion rides a year for its Waymo autonomous driving taxi service.
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Apple to Move All iPhone Production to India.
It is a move that has been underway for some time due to China’s soaring labor costs. Since I began covering China in the early 1970s, China's average annualized income has risen from $300 a year to $16,000, up 5,300%.
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April 24, 2025
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Fed Beige Books Points to Stagflation.
Prices are rising and economic activity has begun to slow across parts of the nation as businesses and households try to adapt to Trump’s erratic rollout of sweeping tariffs aimed at reshaping global trade, a report Wednesday from the Federal Reserve showed. Uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports, the U.S. central bank said.
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Europe Retaliates Against Apple and Meta.
Apple was fined 500 million euros ($570 million) on Wednesday and Meta 200 million euros, as European Union antitrust regulators handed out the first sanctions under landmark legislation aimed at curbing the power of Big Tech.
The EU fines could stoke tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump who has threatened to levy tariffs against countries that penalize U.S. companies. Avoid all big tech for now.
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First Solar Jumps on Dumping Win.
The Commerce Department found that China has been subsidizing companies in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. And the department said those companies have “dumped” solar equipment in the United States, artificially depressing prices and hurting U.S. manufacturers. As a result, the Commerce Department and the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), with its approval, will jointly administer duties on those companies.
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Record Funds are Pouring into Japan.
Overseas investors have bought a net ¥9.64 trillion ($67.5 billion) of the Asian nation’s debt and equities so far in April, according to preliminary weekly figures released by the Ministry of Finance on Thursday. That level is already the most for any month on record, based on balance-of-payments data going back to 1996. What was the only thing Warren Buffet was buying last year? Japanese trading companies.
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Existing Homes Sales Hit 16 Year Low.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell 5.9% in March to an annualized rate of 4.02 million, the weakest March since 2009. The median sales price increased 2.7% from a year ago to $403,700, a record for the month of March and extending a run of year-over-year price gains dating back to mid-2023.
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