Archive
Hot Tips
-
October 29, 2025
-
Mad Hedge Hits New All-Time High,
up +3.07% so far in October, +57.75% year-to-date, and +811.21% since inception. My Trailing one-year return is +80% and my average annualized return for 18 years us +51.14%, about double the S&P 500. The harder I work, the luckier I get.
-
Nvidia Rocks,
taking the stock up 5%. Market cap is approaching $5 trillion. Nvidia is at the core of the global rollout of AI and is striking deals while navigating a U.S.-China trade war that could determine which technology from the two countries is most used around the world. The Santa Clara, California, company's stock has surged 50% in 2025. Its market capitalization closed above $4 trillion for the first time in July. The supercomputers Nvidia is building for the Energy Department will, in part, help the U.S. maintain and develop its nuclear weapons arsenal. The largest of the supercomputers will be built with Oracle and contain 100,000 of Nvidia's high-end Blackwell AI chips.
-
ADP to Publish Private Payroll Weekly,
to help compensate for the loss of all government data resulting from the endless government shutdown. U.S. private payrolls increased by an average of 14,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 11, the ADP National Employment Report's inaugural weekly preliminary estimate showed on Tuesday. ADP said in a statement it would publish a weekly preliminary estimate of the ADP National Employment Report every Tuesday, effective October 28, based on its high-frequency data.
-
Amazon Cuts 30,000 Workers,
in a mass automation of their business. Costs will fall dramatically. Amazon is working to compensate for over-hiring during the peak demand of the pandemic and to limit costs as it enters its crucial holiday selling season. The layoffs offer an early look at the possibly broad effects of AI on workforces. Increased use of tools and agents would lead to more corporate job cuts, particularly through automating routine tasks. The machines are coming for your job!
-
Cameco Rockets,
up an eye-popping 32% in a week, long recommended by Mad Hedge as part of the “New Nuclear” trade. Westinghouse Electric Company, Cameco, and Brookfield Asset Management today announced that the United States Government has entered into a strategic partnership to accelerate the deployment of nuclear power. At least $80 billion of new reactors will be constructed across the United States using Westinghouse nuclear reactor technology. These new reactors will reinvigorate the nuclear power industrial base. Hold your (CCJ) longs and LEAPS.
-
-
October 28, 2025
-
Apple Tops $4 trillion in Market Cap,
with the shares at $269.60. ally comes on the back of stronger-than-expected demand for its latest iPhone lineup, with the iPhone 17 series outselling the iPhone 16 range by 14% over their first 10 days on sale in the US and China. Apple’s ascension to the $4 trillion market capitalization comes just months after Nvidia Corp. became the first company in history to achieve the milestone, and Microsoft Corp. briefly cracked the mark in July.
-
Consumer Confidence at 94.6 in October,
the strongest since August. Expectations came the weakest since June. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions, while optimism about future income retreated slightly.
-
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
at -0.4. from -0.17 the previous month. All three of its component indexes increased. The shipments index increased notably to 4 from -20, new orders rose to -6 from -15, and employment rose to -10 from -15.
-
A Palantir Split is Coming,
in the wake of a robust earnings report. hasn’t conducted a stock split once in its history as a publicly traded company. While the move wouldn’t change the company’s sky-high valuations, it could make shares more accessible to investors after experiencing sharp appreciation in the past year. If Palantir opted for a stock split, it would be following in the footsteps of other AI heavyweights like Nvidia, which conducted a 10-for-1 split in June 2024.
-
Tesla Loses One Million EV Sales,
over Elon Musk’s extremist political views. The Yale University researchers linked the drop to Musk's increasingly partisan behavior, including his roughly $300 million in donations to Republican candidates as well as leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Trump. The drop in international sales has been especially severe. Avoid (TSLA).
-
-
October 27, 2025
-
US Reaches Another Trade Deal with China.
As usual, the details are secret. Never mind if it falls apart in weeks or months. If it gets me a rally in the stock market, that’s fine with me. What happened to the last trade deal? Isn’t one enough? How long until the next one?
-
Copper Hits New High on China Trade Deal.
Copper advanced toward a record as optimism over an imminent US-China trade deal added steam to a rally driven by a slew of disruptions at some of the world’s biggest mines. Prices on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 1.2% to $11,094 a ton, roughly $10 shy of a record reached in May 2024. Buy (FCX) on dips.
-
Soybeans Jump on Trade Deal,
taking (SOYB) up 6% on the week. Soybeans and other grains surged as progress in negotiations between the US and China lifted hopes that the world’s two largest economies were edging toward a deal in their protracted trade war. Temporary for US farmers at last.
-
Don’t Rush Back into Gold Just Yet.
Precious metals and related mining stocks are retreating after a parabolic move up over the past two months. The charts suggest that gold and gold miners are due for a more prolonged period of consolidation to reset their bullish long-term trends. If the gap-based support near $3,927/oz is breached, it would increase near-term downside risk to the 50-day moving average (MA), currently $3,766/oz. and rising over time.
-
Airbnb Ramps Up Anti Party Software,
to eliminate block parties, which tend to destroy the houses. Last year, the company said it prevented about 38,000 people in the U.S. and 6,300 in Canada from making bookings during Halloween weekend. The tech factors in the length of a stay, the distance from a guest’s location, property type, and timing of a booking to block reservations deemed “higher risk.” In 2024, (ABNB) hosted a staggering 491 bookings.
-
-
October 24, 2025
-
CPI Comes in Soft at 3.0%,
sparking a runaway rally in all financials. The certainty of a 25-basis-point Fed interest rate cut next Wednesday is assured. The accuracy of this data point is questionable, as it was cherry-picked at the only government release this week from a skeleton staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What is the current Unemployment Rate?
-
Fed to Overhaul Stress Tests,
in another big win for financials. The program is aimed at preventing banks from blowing up during the next financial crisis, as did Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns in 2008. But meeting the Fed’s restrictions was expensive and limited leverage to 10:1. Please now, blow up later. Buy all financials on dips.
-
2026 Social Security Payments to Rise 2.8%.
More than 75 million Americans receiving Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits will see their monthly payments accelerate from the prior year's increase for the first time in three years. The Social Security Administration announced the annual cost-of-living adjustment to benefits on Friday, less than an hour after the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the CPI for September, which had been delayed by more than a week by the ongoing government shutdown.
-
Weekly Jobless Claims Jump 12,000,
to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended October 18 from 220,000 the prior week, economists at Citigroup and Nationwide calculated. Goldman Sachs estimated claims at 227,000 while JPMorgan put the number at 229,000. The government shutdown is weighing heavily on the market.
-
Ford Soars 13% on Earnings Beat.
Ford posted revenue of $50.5 billion for the third quarter, up 9% from a year earlier. It reported a 45-cent earnings per share for the period , beating LSEG analysts' expectation of 36 cents. The Detroit Three automaker cut its annual outlook for the second time this year, to earnings before interest and taxes of $6.0 billion to $6.5 billion, from $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion.
Ford Motor (F) cut its profit guidance on Thursday, citing fallout from a fire at a critical aluminum supplier that will crimp production of some of its most lucrative vehicles through the end of the year. Avoid (F).
-
-
October 23, 2025
-
Tesla Disappoints,
with an earnings shortfall that took the stock down $18. Tesla's earnings report was a largely disappointing one, with profit missing Wall Street's estimates despite record vehicle deliveries, and operating income plunged 40% in the third quarter. Elon Musk spent the end of Tesla Inc.'s earnings call pleading with investors to approve his $1 trillion pay package and blasting shareholder advisory firms that have come out against the proposal.
-
US Imposes Oil Sanctions on Russia,
spiking prices 5%. The step comes at a time when global supply looks plentiful as nations inside and outside the OPEC+ producer alliance ramp up output amid signs of cooling demand growth. If India does drastically cut purchases — senior refinery executives said the restrictions would make it all but impossible for flows to continue — the question will become whether China is willing to step into the void.
-
Existing Home Sales Hit Seven-Month High,
up 1.5% in September. Supply of previously owned homes surges 14.0% from a year ago. Median house price up 2.1% to $415,200 from the year-earlier period. Home sales jumped 4.1% on a year-over-year basis. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is near a one-year low of 6.27%. Some realtors have also said the shutdown is delaying contract closings. All-cash sales constituted 30% of transactions, unchanged from a year ago.
-
Rivian Announced Mass Layoffs,
as the end of the EV Tax credit on September 30 craters sales. The expiration of a $7,500 U.S. federal tax credit for purchases of new EVs last month is expected to drive up prices and further weaken demand, posing a fresh challenge for automakers such as Rivian already grappling with mounting cost pressures. The EV nuclear winter continues.
-
Beyond Meat Reaches Short Interest Exceeds 100%,
meaning that 100% of its share float has been sold short, and no more selling is allowed. About 109% of Beyond Meat's free float shares were shorted, up from 81.8%, as of Wednesday. Short interest in a stock can exceed 100% of its free float due to the re-lending of borrowed shares, allowing multiple investors to short the same underlying stock. Avoid (BYND).
-
