Archive
Hot Tips
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October 21, 2025
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Gold Dives 5%,
after hitting a fresh peak of $4,381.52 an ounce on Monday, as a strengthening US dollar made precious metals more expensive for most buyers. Haven demand for precious metals has cooled somewhat as the US and China are set to meet next week to iron out their differences on trade. Get ready to buy the dip in (GLD).
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Apple Surges to a new All-Time High,
approaching $4 trillion in market cap. The iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, with the newer models out-selling the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries. My 2026 LEAPS are up 35%.
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Coca-Cola Beats,
and keeps annual sales, profit targets despite challenges. Coca-Cola, which is set to launch its cane sugar trademark soda in the U.S. in the fall season, is planning to offer mini 7.5-ounce single-serve cans, priced at less than $2 in U.S. convenience stores, to target lower-income consumers.
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Silver Coin Bags are Back.
Pre-1965 U.S. coins, containing 90% silver, are an investment option for physical silver, with silver prices up almost 80% this year. $1,000 face value bag of pre-1965 silver coins, containing 715 troy ounces, costs about $38,000, a small premium to spot silver. Silver is up almost 80% this year to $52 an ounce after hitting a record $54 recently. There is also some copper value since the coins are 90% silver and 10% copper. Silver may hit $100 an ounce in 2026.
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Pulte Homes Beats,
with third-quarter earnings of $2.96 per share on $4.4 billion in revenue exceeded expectations, but the home sale gross margin was 26.2%. Home orders totaled 6,638, a 6% decrease from the third quarter of 2024, largely meeting analyst estimates. Buy (PHM) on dips.
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October 20, 2025
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Gold to Hit $5,000 an Ounce in 2026,
according to HSBC, a Hong Kong-based bank. The bull market is supported by elevated risks and the impact of new entrants into the market. Spot gold breached the $4,300 level on Thursday and was headed for its strongest week since December 2008. The bank cited geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty and rising public debt as factors supporting the price. Buy (GLD) on dips.
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China GDP Comes in Line at 4.8%,
versus 5.0% expected. While China is seeing robust growth, the US is shrinking at a 1% rate. The growth of markets outside the US gets the credit. Who won the trade war?
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American Express Takes off on High-End Spending,
on an increase in their annual platinum fees to $840 a year. Buy (AXP) on dips. It’s a play on concentration of wealth at the top and the rich getting richer.
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Worse is Ahead for EV Makers.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a UK-based pricing and data research firm for energy transition minerals, has cut at least a fifth of its workforce in recent weeks. The 11-year-old firm had been rapidly expanding over the past couple of years alongside growing market interest in lithium, copper and other minerals needed for electric vehicles and other clean-energy uses.
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Silver is Pouring in from All Over the World,
to ease the short squeeze in London. The US, China, and India have been major sources. A shortage of available metal in the London market helped drive silver prices to a premium over U.S. Comex futures a week ago, making deliveries by airplane - usually reserved for much more expensive gold - profitable for sellers. Buy (SLV) on dips.
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October 17, 2025
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Mad Hedge AI Market Timing Index Hits Six-Month Low,
at 23. That means any new long you initiate here will have a 77% chance of making money on a one-month view. Any shorts you initiate have a 77% chance of losing money. The market should hit a short-term bottom in one or two days with the Volatility Index ($VIX) at $25.50.
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US Import Taxes Hit $29.6 Billion in September,
an all-time high and up 295% YOY. That is going to have to come out of your pockets and is also driving inflation upward. Interest payments on the National debt have hit a record $970 billion so far in the fiscal year. The piper is going to have to be paid someday.
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The AI Boom is Driving San Francisco Rents Sky-High,
San Francisco’s residential rents have soared the most in the nation over the past year. Apartment prices in the city rose an average of 6 percent in that time, more than double the 2.5% increase in New York City. That now puts the average rent for a San Francisco apartment at $3,315 a month, right behind New York City’s $3,360, which is the nation’s highest.
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Charles Schwab Books Record Profit,
along with all other brokers. Schwab's (SCHW) results offer an insight into the trends in the investment landscape, with its diversified business model spanning across brokerage services, asset management, banking, and other financial services. Buy (SCHW) on dips.
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Apple Clinches US Rights for Formula 1 Racing.
The move would help the tech giant bolster its streaming service with one of the country's fastest-growing sports, following the success of its Brad Pitt-starrer "F1: The Movie". Apple is thought to have paid $140 million a year for the exclusive broadcast deal. Buy (AAPL) on dips.
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October 16, 2025
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October 17 Options expiration is Tomorrow.
All three Mad Hedge positions are expiring at max profit. With options trading volumes skyrocketing, the 4:15 PM EST close out is going to be a thriller.
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Fed Beige Book Comes in Pretty Dour,
reflecting sentiments from their meeting six weeks ago. The outlook changed little. Consumer spending is weakening, EV sales are up ahead of the expiration of the tax subsidies, and international travel is down big. High-end consumers are still spending. Agriculture, energy, and construction are all down. Labor demand is weak. Not exactly a report to run up the flagpole and salute.
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Banking is Entering a Golden Age,
with a major re-rating upward on the way. Credit remains solid. Credit quality is better than expected and improving, so default risk is falling. Private credit exposure remains a risk, which has seen ballistic growth over the past four years. Stocks are at highs, and consolidation is working. Merger approval time has shrunk from 16 months to 6 months. Managements are really positive about the theoretical outlooks. Banks are still 30% cheaper than the S&P 500, and interest rates are falling. Upside momentum lives.
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Apple is Seeing a Modest Turnaround in China,
its most important market, thanks to government subsidies for its lowest-end iPhone 17s. Tim Cook is trying to move as much of its production to India and Vietnam as possible. Only 9 million iPhones a year are coming from China out of 56.8 million sold in Q3. Buy (AAPL) on dips.
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Zions Bank (ZION) Takes a Big Hit,
on fraudulent loans. The shares sank by 6.4% after it disclosed a $50 million charge-off for a loan underwritten by its wholly owned subsidiary, California Bank & Trust in San Diego. These black swans from small banks can hit at any time, which is why I avoid them.
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October 14, 2025
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The Trade War Escalates,
as China imposes a raft of new retaliatory fees. The United States and China on Tuesday began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies. A return to an all-out trade war appeared imminent last week, after China announced a major expansion of its rare earths export controls and President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to triple digits.
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Goldman Sachs Q3 Earnings Rock,
beating all expectations. The firm reported $2.66 billion in investment banking fees, a 42% surge on the same period last year, and revenue of $15.18 billion, its largest haul for that quarter in its history. The firm reported $2.66 billion in investment banking fees, a 42% surge on the same period last year, the bank said Tuesday. That pace beat rivals and helped the company as a whole report revenue of $15.18 billion, its largest haul for that quarter in its history and its third highest overall for all quarters. Buy (GS) on dips.
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JP Morgan Earnings Beat.
Morgan beat analysts' estimates for trading and investment-banking fees, driven by a pickup in dealmaking and underwriting, with markets revenue climbing 25% and investment-banking fees rising 16%. The bank added $810 million to its reserves for potentially soured loans, citing loan growth and updates to macroeconomic variables, with most of the addition tied to card services. Buy (JPM) on dips.
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The Oil Glut Worsens,
as a long-anticipated oil surplus is finally starting to emerge and is likely to depress prices, some of the world’s top commodity traders said. Brent oil has slumped 11% since late last month as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — as well as nations outside the group — pour barrels into a market that’s widely viewed as facing an excess. The forward curve that traders use to gauge market strength is also painting a bearish picture in the US next year. Avoid (USO).
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IMF Raises Global Growth Forecast,
from 3.2% for 2025, 3.1% for 2026. Firms are coping with substantially higher tariffs better than expected, despite rising inflation. The U.S.-China tariff war escalation is a 'significant risk' to global growth-IMF chief economist.
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