Archive
Hot Tips
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November 3, 2025
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Amazon Rockets an incredible 10%,
with $209 billion in Q3 revenues. Store revenues were $67 billion. Adds grew by 22% to $17 billion YOY. The company announced a $38 billion deal with OpenAI for the ChatGPT developer to access hundreds of thousands of Nvidia's (NVDA)’s AI chips through its cloud computing infrastructure. Buy (AMZN) on dips.
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Netflix Announced 10:1 Share Split,
sending the shares up $45. When you own great companies, all the surprises are to the upside. Investors were suddenly reminded that the company is still growing at a prodigious rate. The streaming giant previously split its stock 2-for-1 in 2004 and 7-for-1 in 2015.
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US Manufacturing Falls for 8 Consecutive Months,
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased 0.4 points to 48.7, according to data released Monday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the measure has been stuck in a narrow range for most of this year.
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Kimberly Clark Buys Kenvue,
maker of Tylenol, for $40 billion. Kimberly-Clark shares dropped sharply after the announcement, while Kenvue jumped 17.5%. The company is paying a hefty 46% premium for the former Johnson & Johnson unit that has had a turbulent year. Kenvue ousted its CEO in July and has been under fire from the White House over unproven claims that Tylenol use during pregnancy can cause autism in children. Avoid (KMB) as it is a low-margin business.
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Tesla Sales Resume Fall in October,
in a number of European countries, including Spain, the Netherlands, and Nordic markets, the latest sign that the U.S. electric vehicle maker's struggles on the continent continue. Tesla had seen sales rise in a number of European markets in September after falling for most of this year due to increasing competition to its aging lineup from newer EV models. Avoid (TSLA).
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October 30, 2025
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Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points.
More importantly, the Fed is ending quantitative tightening or letting its existing bond holdings mature without replacing them with new buys. Weirdly, it was a data-free statement due to the government shutdown. Let the money printing begin!
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Alphabet Beats,
taking the stock up 5%, Meta and Microsoft disappoint. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) reported third-quarter revenue and earnings on Wednesday that surpassed Wall Street's expectations following several AI deals involving its cloud segment. The stock jumped more than 5% Thursday morning following the results. Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) shares dropped after earnings because expenses are rising faster than revenues due to their massive AI capex.
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Home Prices are Lagging Inflation,
which means that homeowners’ net equity is falling. Home prices nationally rose 1.5% in August compared with the same month last year, down from the 1.6% annual gain recorded in July, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. While home prices aren't yet falling, they're weakening — rising at a slower pace than the current 3% rate of inflation. That means that housing wealth eroded in real terms for the fourth consecutive month, according to the index.
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Pending Home Sales Rise were Flat
in September, on a signed contract basis and up 0.9% YOY, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales rose in the West. Inventories climbed to a five-year how as the market is held back by a rising Unemployment Rate.
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US Nuclear Generation Set to Soar.
As surging demand driven by data centers strains grids across the country and a wave of tech companies signs deals to source power from the zero-carbon resource. The consumer brownouts are coming. A flurry of announcements in nuclear energy investments - most recently an $80 billion U.S. government partnership with the owners of Westinghouse Electric - underscore the rising interest in the sector. The power industry is grappling with increasing electricity demand from energy-intensive data centers, rising temperatures, and electrification. Buy (CCJ) on dips.
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October 29, 2025
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Mad Hedge Hits New All-Time High,
up +3.07% so far in October, +57.75% year-to-date, and +811.21% since inception. My Trailing one-year return is +80% and my average annualized return for 18 years us +51.14%, about double the S&P 500. The harder I work, the luckier I get.
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Nvidia Rocks,
taking the stock up 5%. Market cap is approaching $5 trillion. Nvidia is at the core of the global rollout of AI and is striking deals while navigating a U.S.-China trade war that could determine which technology from the two countries is most used around the world. The Santa Clara, California, company's stock has surged 50% in 2025. Its market capitalization closed above $4 trillion for the first time in July. The supercomputers Nvidia is building for the Energy Department will, in part, help the U.S. maintain and develop its nuclear weapons arsenal. The largest of the supercomputers will be built with Oracle and contain 100,000 of Nvidia's high-end Blackwell AI chips.
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ADP to Publish Private Payroll Weekly,
to help compensate for the loss of all government data resulting from the endless government shutdown. U.S. private payrolls increased by an average of 14,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 11, the ADP National Employment Report's inaugural weekly preliminary estimate showed on Tuesday. ADP said in a statement it would publish a weekly preliminary estimate of the ADP National Employment Report every Tuesday, effective October 28, based on its high-frequency data.
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Amazon Cuts 30,000 Workers,
in a mass automation of their business. Costs will fall dramatically. Amazon is working to compensate for over-hiring during the peak demand of the pandemic and to limit costs as it enters its crucial holiday selling season. The layoffs offer an early look at the possibly broad effects of AI on workforces. Increased use of tools and agents would lead to more corporate job cuts, particularly through automating routine tasks. The machines are coming for your job!
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Cameco Rockets,
up an eye-popping 32% in a week, long recommended by Mad Hedge as part of the “New Nuclear” trade. Westinghouse Electric Company, Cameco, and Brookfield Asset Management today announced that the United States Government has entered into a strategic partnership to accelerate the deployment of nuclear power. At least $80 billion of new reactors will be constructed across the United States using Westinghouse nuclear reactor technology. These new reactors will reinvigorate the nuclear power industrial base. Hold your (CCJ) longs and LEAPS.
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October 28, 2025
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Apple Tops $4 trillion in Market Cap,
with the shares at $269.60. ally comes on the back of stronger-than-expected demand for its latest iPhone lineup, with the iPhone 17 series outselling the iPhone 16 range by 14% over their first 10 days on sale in the US and China. Apple’s ascension to the $4 trillion market capitalization comes just months after Nvidia Corp. became the first company in history to achieve the milestone, and Microsoft Corp. briefly cracked the mark in July.
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Consumer Confidence at 94.6 in October,
the strongest since August. Expectations came the weakest since June. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions, while optimism about future income retreated slightly.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
at -0.4. from -0.17 the previous month. All three of its component indexes increased. The shipments index increased notably to 4 from -20, new orders rose to -6 from -15, and employment rose to -10 from -15.
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A Palantir Split is Coming,
in the wake of a robust earnings report. hasn’t conducted a stock split once in its history as a publicly traded company. While the move wouldn’t change the company’s sky-high valuations, it could make shares more accessible to investors after experiencing sharp appreciation in the past year. If Palantir opted for a stock split, it would be following in the footsteps of other AI heavyweights like Nvidia, which conducted a 10-for-1 split in June 2024.
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Tesla Loses One Million EV Sales,
over Elon Musk’s extremist political views. The Yale University researchers linked the drop to Musk's increasingly partisan behavior, including his roughly $300 million in donations to Republican candidates as well as leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Trump. The drop in international sales has been especially severe. Avoid (TSLA).
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October 27, 2025
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US Reaches Another Trade Deal with China.
As usual, the details are secret. Never mind if it falls apart in weeks or months. If it gets me a rally in the stock market, that’s fine with me. What happened to the last trade deal? Isn’t one enough? How long until the next one?
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Copper Hits New High on China Trade Deal.
Copper advanced toward a record as optimism over an imminent US-China trade deal added steam to a rally driven by a slew of disruptions at some of the world’s biggest mines. Prices on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 1.2% to $11,094 a ton, roughly $10 shy of a record reached in May 2024. Buy (FCX) on dips.
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Soybeans Jump on Trade Deal,
taking (SOYB) up 6% on the week. Soybeans and other grains surged as progress in negotiations between the US and China lifted hopes that the world’s two largest economies were edging toward a deal in their protracted trade war. Temporary for US farmers at last.
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Don’t Rush Back into Gold Just Yet.
Precious metals and related mining stocks are retreating after a parabolic move up over the past two months. The charts suggest that gold and gold miners are due for a more prolonged period of consolidation to reset their bullish long-term trends. If the gap-based support near $3,927/oz is breached, it would increase near-term downside risk to the 50-day moving average (MA), currently $3,766/oz. and rising over time.
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Airbnb Ramps Up Anti Party Software,
to eliminate block parties, which tend to destroy the houses. Last year, the company said it prevented about 38,000 people in the U.S. and 6,300 in Canada from making bookings during Halloween weekend. The tech factors in the length of a stay, the distance from a guest’s location, property type, and timing of a booking to block reservations deemed “higher risk.” In 2024, (ABNB) hosted a staggering 491 bookings.
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