Hot Tips Archives

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 29, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 29, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) That Jay Really Has a Way with Words. By saying that we are close to a neutral rate, the Fed Governor implied that there will be one more rate rise in December and then NO MORE. Happy president. But the historical neutral range is 3.5% - 4.5%, meaning there is room for 2-6 X 25 basis point rate hikes to keep the bond vigilantes at pay. Such a card! Thread that needle! Click here.

2)October New Home Sales Were a Complete Disaster, down a stunning 8.9%, and off 12% YOY. These are the worst numbers since the 2009 housing crash. I told you not to buy homebuilders! They can’t give them away now! Click here.

3) Weekly Jobless Claims Soar 10,000 to 234,000, a new five-month high. Not what stock owners want to hear. THE JOBS MIRACLE IS FADING. Click here.

4) Tiffany Stock dives on Failing China Sales. Talk about unintended consequences of the trade war. If you can’t sell bling at Christmas time, when can you? Click here.

5) November Consumer Sentiment Falls Off a Cliff, down a hefty 2.8 points, and it wasn’t just the election. The monthly survey of 500 consumers has been falling since March. Another pre-recession indicator. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(SHORT SELLING SCHOOL 101),

(SH), (SDS), (PSQ), (DOG), (RWM), (SPXU), (AAPL), (VIX), (VXX), (IPO), (MTUM), (SPHB), (HDGE)

(SALESFORCE KNOCKS IT OUT OF THE PARK)

(CRM), (AAPL), (PYPL), (ADBE), (TWLO), (MSFT), (AMZN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 28, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 28, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Traders Are Getting G-20 Fever. Will the Friday Buenos Aires meeting suddenly solve all our problems? Click here.

2) Trump Bashes the Fed Again, attempting to talk down interest rates. He’ll likely have the opposite effect as the Fed tries to prove its independence. Governor Jay Powell may provide some clarity at today’s speech at the Economic Club of New York, or he may not. After all, he is the boss. Click here.

3) Salesforce (CRM) Earnings Rock, and the stock soars 7%. Finally, a positive stock move after a positive earnings release. It a good thing that the Mad Hedge Technology Letter is long. Click here.

4) S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Price Rise Hits an 18-Month Low, at 5.5%. With housing in free fall nationally, further price declines are to come. With mortgage rates up a full point in a year and affordability at a decade low, who’s surprised? Click here.

5) Q3 GDP Drops to 3.5%, Down From 4.2% in Q2. Was Q2 a one-hit wonder? The stock market certainly thinks so. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHAT I TOLD MY BIGGEST HEDGE FUND CLIENT)

(SPY), (AAPL), (AMZN), (MSFT)

(TRUMP'S TARIFF THREAT FOR APPLE))

(AAPL), (BABA), (EBAY), (WMT), (FB), (MSFT), (AMZN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 27, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Trump Says Apple “MAY” Get Hit With 10% Import Duty, on iPhones made in China and the stock dives $5. Would add about $10 to the price of each phone. He never misses an opportunity to ratchet up the pressure. Click here.

2) The Market is Struggling to Form a Bottom Here, if only the president would keep his mouth shut. The market is spring loaded for a massive short covering rally. A 14.9X price earnings multiple brings in a ton of value players and there are still $100 billion in share buybacks to go.

3) Airbnb is Ramping Up Its 2019 IPO, which could value the home sharing startup at $31 billion. The San Francisco startup is now the biggest hotel in the world by far. Click here.

4) Cyber Monday Sales Hit a New All-Time High, up to $7.3 billion with Amazon (AMZN) taking far and away the largest share. Click here.

5) 2019 Recession Calls Are Multiplying Like Rabbits. Nothing like closing the barn door after the horses have bolted. I wish you told me this in September. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE QUANTUM COMPUTER IN YOUR FUTURE),

(AMZN), (GOOG),

(THE WORST TRADE IN HISTORY), (AAPL)

(ONLINE COMMERCE IS TAKING OVER THE WORLD)

(AMZN), (ADBE), (WMT), (KSS), (TGT), (LOW), (EA), (ATVI), (TTWO), (ETSY)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 26, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

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1) Oil is Trying to Bottom Here, and So Are Stocks. The two are now joined at the hip. Watching the (USO) for the right timing to re-enter the long side on stocks.

2) Black Friday Sales Up 4.5% YOY, to $23 billion, and I’m sure my kids accounted for at least half of that. The recession takes a day off.

3) General Motors Closes 3 Plants and Lays Off 15,000, as trade wars wreak havoc on old-line industries. It looks like Millennials would rather ride their scooters than buy new cars. Click here.

4) Markets Have Given Up Half the Valuation Gain of the Past Decade in only 7 Weeks, with price earnings multiples plunging from 20X to only 14.9X. The 2009 low was 9.5. Could this mean stocks are cheap?

5) Microsoft Now Tops Apple as the World’s Most Valuable Company. A 25% drop in the stock in seven weeks will do that. And the Mad Hedge Technology Letter thinks (MSFT) has the better growth prospects from here. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or ARE WE IN OR OUT?)

(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (NFLX), (GOOG), (SPY), (TLT), (USO), (UNG), (ROM)

(WILL THE FAANGS FINALLY KILL OFF TELEVISION?)

(AMZN), (DIS), (FOX), (ROKU), (FB), (AAPL), (GOOGL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 21, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 21, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Tech is Now 20% Cheaper than the February Low because earnings have risen by 20% since then. Tech is now cheaper than Consumer Staples which means the 20% a year growers are trading at a discount to 2% a year growers. Yes, tech is cheaper than toilet paper! Click here.

2) Suddenly, Recession Warnings are Everywhere. Airline tickets are at their low of the year, an average of $220 despite this being the busiest season. Predatory pricing rules supreme. Click here.

3) October Durable Goods Down a Stunning 4.4%. For some reason, China has quit buying our airplanes. Maybe that’s why Boeing shares (BA) have just cratered by 25%. Click here.

4) Weekly Jobless Claims Hit 224,000, continuing a grind up to a 4 ½ month high. Is the employment miracle ending? Click here.

5) Goldman Sachs Says Growth to Drop Below 2% in 2019, well below Obama era levels. Maybe that’s what the stock market crash is trying to tell us. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(TRADING THE KENNEDY ASSASSINATION)

(FIVE TECH STOCKS TO SELL SHORT ON THE NEXT RALLY)

(WDC), (SNAP), (STX), (APRN), (AMZN), (KR), (WMT), (MSFT), (ATVI), (GME), (TTWO), (EA), (INTC), (AMD), (FB), (BBY), (COST), (MU)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 20, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 20, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) NASDAQ is Trying to Bottom Here at the February low of 6,700. Still, I cut my highest risk positions by half anyway to live to fight another day. I’m too old to start over as an entry-level trainee at Morgan Stanley again. Click here.

2) The Bitcoin Crash Continues, down an incredible 16% today to $4,200. I always thought that this was an asset class created out of thin air to absorb excess global liquidity. Remove that liquidity and Bitcoin goes back to being thin air. Click here.

3) Another Old Friend Goes to Jail, with the arrest of Carlos Ghosn, the legendary CEO of Nissan. Always be nice to people on the way up because you meet them again on the way down. The auto industry mourns. Click here.

4) US Housing Starts Rise Slightly in October, in a rare glimmer of hope, with almost all of the action in apartment buildings. Can you blame the builders now that purchases of single-family homes have ceased which saw starts fall? The recession is now already priced into some homes for sale. Click here.

5) Oil Gets Crushed Again, down 4%, as recession fears run rampant. Panic dumping of wrong-footed hedge fund longs still destroying the market. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(TRADING FOR THE NON-TRADER),

(ROM), (UXI), (UCC), (UYG),

(CATCH MY ALL ASSET CLASS REVIEW ON “INVEST LIKE A BOSS”)

(A LESSON IN BLITZSCALING)

(UBER), (LYFT), (GRUB), (DPZ), (AMZN), (BABA), (SQ), (PYPL), (NFLX)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 19, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 19, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Chinese Stocks Hit a One Month High, on hopes that a deal gets cut at the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires on November 29. Do they know something we don’t? Click here.

2) The Housing Market is Effectively Closed, with new sales grinding to a complete halt. NAHB Housing Market Index crashes from 67 to 60, the biggest drop in four years. Some brokers haven’t done a deal in three months. Click here.

3) Salesforce Stock is Trashed $8, on protests over running illegal immigrant databases for the US government. Buy the dip. Click here.

4) Tech Gets Trashed Again, but won’t hit new lows this time. Another chance to get in before the yearend rally. Click here.

5) Hedge Fund Blowup Takes Natural Gas Down 20% in a Day. James Cordier got away with naked call selling for years until he didn’t. All investors completely wiped out. I have always told followers to avoid this strategy for years. It’s picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Same for naked puts too. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or MASS EVACUATION)

(SPY), (WMT), (NVDA), (EEM), (FCX), (AMZN), (AAPL), (FCX), (USO), (TLT), (TSLA), (CRM), (SQ),

(ROKU’S UNASSAILABLE LEAD)

(TIVO), (ROKU), (NFLX), (AMZN), (CHTR), (DISH), (FB), (AAPL), (GOOGL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 16, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 16, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) NVIDIA Disappoints, Stock Down 20%. The former darling of Silicon Valley gets her comeuppance. Blame it all on crypto mining which has completely disappeared, thanks to the Bitcoin crash. Still, I’m buying. Down 45% in six weeks, the stock has suffered enough. Click here.

2) Was That an Inverse Head and Shoulders that Set up for the (SPY) yesterday? We were loading the boat with technology stocks yesterday and caught the full 500-point rally in the Dow sparked by China rumors. It all paves the way for a nice year-end rally. Click here.

3) Wal-Mart Beats, but the Stock is Trashed Anyway. They really ARE trying to become the next FANG but management has to learn how to turn on a PC first. Click here.

4) Volkswagen Is Spending $50 billion on Electric Cars, hoping to bring them up to one-third of total sales. Tesla (TSLA) can’t keep this market to itself forever. But after the “clean diesel” fiasco, will anyone ever trust them again? Click here.

5) China Eases Trading Rules, allowing Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) to pop. Don’t get sucked in too soon before the trade war ends. Still, at these levels, they’re a long-term steal. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(RISK CONTROL FOR DUMMIES),

(SPY), (AMZN), (TLT), (CRM), (VXX)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 15, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 15, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Bitcoin Crashes, plunging to $5,433, down 10%, crushing five-month support. It’s all blamed on a software upgrade. Yah, sure. I told you it was a Ponzi scheme! Click here.

2) Oil Crashes Too, hitting a lowly $55 a barrel. Are all these crashes telling us we are already in a recession, or is it just the Fed’s shrinkage of the money supply? Click here.

3) The British Government is on the Verge of Collapse, taking the stuffing out of the pound. A new election is now possible. I never thought Brexit would happen. It would mean Britain committing economic suicide. Click here.

4) US Retails Sales Soar, in October, up a red hot 0.8% versus 0.5% expected. Don’t tell the stock market or oil which think we are already in recession. Click here.

5) PG&E May go Bankrupt in the Aftermath of the California Wildfires. If their downed wires get blamed for the cause, the Golden State’s largest public utility will have to declare chapter 11….for the second time. Thank goodness, I went all solar a year ago. The electricity price hikes to cover this cost are going to be enormous. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(ARE YOU IN THE 1%?)

(SNE), (HMC)

(DUMPING THE OLD ASSET ALLOCATION RULES)

(AVOID THE HOUSING DATABASE LANDMINES)

(Z), (RDFN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for November 13, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
November 13, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Amazon (AMZN) Picks New York and Virginia, for HQ 2 and 3 in a prelude to the breakup of the once trillion-dollar company. The stock holds up well in the wake of another administration antitrust attack. (AMZN) Click here.

2)November 29 G-20 Meeting in Buenos Aires. Trump could announce a pretend agreement that might be worth 1,000-point rally in the Dow until people figure it out. (INDU) Click here.

3) General Electric Hits New Lows, down to an eye-popping $7.60, but the new CEO promises they won’t go bankrupt. First, it will sell its Baker Hughes oil subsidiary, its one good call. (GE) Click here.

4) Courts Block Keystone Pipeline. The Canadians are going to have to find another way to get their shale oil to China. (USO) Click here.

5) Who Says Sexual Misconduct Doesn’t Pay?Steve Wynn was fired as CEO in March so he dumped his $2.1 billion worth of stock in (WYNN). Since then, the shares have cratered by a breathtaking 54%, thanks to the China trade war where the company earns the bulk of its profits. That saved him $1.13 billion in losses. Maybe he can now afford a better plastic surgeon. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(NO BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR FOR WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 14)

(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)

(NO BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR FOR WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 14)

(WHY I HATE CHIP STOCKS)

(AAPL), (CY), (TXN), (LRCX), (KLAC), (LITE), (QCOM), (MU), (SWKS), (LSCC)