Let me make this clear. These are not forecasts, predictions, or prognostications. They are not even guesses. They ARE events which have a very low probability of occurring, but which can have an extremely large market impact if they do. That is the textbook definition of a ?Black Swan?, a concept created by my friend,
Your background is very impressive and intriguing. You definitely have a lot of valuable and unique experience. I read your most recent post on activist investing and couldn't agree more. I have always been a fan of activist strategies because even under an assumption of efficient markets, activism can still generate alpha in theory. I
Global Market Comments July 26, 2016 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 27 BASEL, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE BULL MARKET IN AMERICAN COLLEGE DEGREES), (TESTIMONIAL)
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Basel, Switzerland on Wednesday, July 27, 2016.A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period.I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals,
Global Market Comments July 25, 2016 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHAT?S ON YOUR PLATE FOR THIS WEEK?), (SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (USO), (FCY), (BLAME IT ALL ON THE RISK PARITY TRADERS!), (VIX), (SPY), (TLT), (TESTIMONIAL) SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond GLD SPDR Gold Shares USO United States Oil FXY CurrencyShares
The summer doldrums are back! That is the only conclusion one can draw after observing the market action last week from my mountain lair in Zermatt, Switzerland. Try as I might, it is impossible to flee this connected world, unless the power is cut off by an avalanche and your batteries die. As I expected,
?The fundamental argument against gold is so fundamentally one-sided that it is almost comical,? said options trader, Jim Iuorio, of TJM Institutional Services.
Global Market Comments July 22, 2016 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 27 BASEL, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE VOLATILITY BOTTOM IS IN), (VIX), (VXX), (XIV), (SVXY), (REPORT FROM THE ORIENT EXPRESS) ^VIX VOLATILITY S&P 500 VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN XIV VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN
I was awoken from a dead sleep in the middle of the night in my suite on the Orient Express by a juddering halt and the smell of burning brakes in the air.We were somewhere high in the Swiss Alps, and every single passenger on the first class only train had to be thinking that
?To get rich is glorious!? said Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese general who launched the country?s modern economy in the seventies.
Global Market Comments July 21, 2016 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TUESDAY, JULY 26 BADEN-BADEN, GERMANY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WATCH OUT FOR THE AUGUST STOCK MARKET CORRECTION), (SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (SLV), (GGP), (AMLP), (UUP), (THE BLOCKBUSTER READ IN THE HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY) SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond GLD SPDR Gold
Urgent business with the German government requires me to be in the Fatherland for an extra day. It seems that someone high up wants to know about the long-term economic impact of Brexit (terrible), the possibility of avoiding it (excellent), and what to do with one million refugees.?Apparently, no one else but me can put
I have a prediction to make. When Donald Trump takes the podium to accept the Republican nomination for the presidency this week, he will not talk about how much money he has made in the stock market over the past seven years. Nor will he mention how the value of his real estate portfolio has
Global Market Comments July 20, 2016 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 22 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR), (IS AIRBNB YOUR NEXT TEN BAGGER?)
Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, July 22, 2016. The guests and I will engage in an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and
I was not surprised to hear that the home sharing app, Airbnb, was given a $30 billion valuation in the latest venture capital funding round. The big question for you and me is: Will the valuation soar tenfold to $300 billion, and how much of a piece of that will you and I be allowed
?There are just not enough human buyers in the market,? lamented Eddie Perkin, chief investment officer at Eaton Vance.
Global Market Comments July 19, 2016 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 20 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (WHY WATER IS ONE OF 2016?S BEST SECTORS), (CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VEOEY), (TTEK), (PNR), (WHY ACTIVISTS HAVE THE UPPER HAND), (JCP), (NFLX), (HLF), (AAPL), (TESTIMONIAL) CGW Guggenheim S&P Global Water ETF PHO PowerShares Water Resources ETF FIW First Trust ISE
I bet you didn?t know that water infrastructure plays have been one of the top performing stock sectors in 2016. In fact, shares of this little known industry are up more than 25% since the February market bottom. If you think that energy is scarce, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis.
Having been in this market for yonks, ages, and even a coon?s age, I have seen trading strategies come and go.First, there was the nifty fifty during the 1960?s. Junk bonds had their day in the sun. Then portfolio insurance was all the rage.Oops!While the dollar was weak, international diversification was the flavor of the