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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 14, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 14, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2023 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-14 11:04:102022-10-14 13:13:05October 14, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 14, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“If markets were rational, I would be washing dishes for a living,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/warren-buffet2.png 298 396 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-14 11:00:542022-10-14 13:12:24October 14, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 13, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 13, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BUY the JP Morgan (JPM) January 2025 $175-$180 out-of-the-money
vertical Bull Call spread LEAPS at $0.50 or best)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-13 09:04:522022-10-13 15:29:09October 13, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

BUY the JP Morgan (JPM) January 2025 $175-$180 out-of-the-money vertical Bull Call spread LEAPS at $0.50 or best

Diary, Newsletter

Opening Trade

10-13-2022

expiration date: January 17, 2025

Number of Contracts = 1 contract

JP Morgan Chase is now trading at a price earnings multiple of only 8X, lower than the worst days of the pandemic low and the 2009 crash low. In order words (JPM) is the cheapest that it has been this century.

The banking sector has been beaten like the proverbial red-headed stepchild this year. However, it should be at the core of any long-term LEAPS portfolio.

The best time to pick up this position will be during a market meltdown day when the (SPX) is trading under $3,500 and the Volatility Index is over $34.

If you are looking for a lottery ticket, then here is a lottery ticket.

While the chance of winning a real lottery is something like a million to one, this one is more like 2:1 in your favor. And the payoff is 12:1. That is the probability that JP Morgan shares will double over the next two years and four months.

(JPM) is the class act in the global banking sector, and CEO Jamie Diamond is the best CEO in the country. Not only that, with rocketing interest rates, we are just entering the golden age of the banking sector.

I believe that massive government borrowing and spending will drive US interest rates up through the roof. Banks love high interest rates because they vastly improve profit margins.

And here is the sweet spot. Fears of a recession increasing loan default rates have knocked $66, or 39% off the $170 high in (JPM) shares this year. We are now only $20 above the 2020 pandemic low. When recession fears fade in 2023, interest rates will still remain historically high and (JPM) profits and share price should rocket.

To learn more about the company, please visit their website at https://www.jpmorganchase.com.

I am therefore buying the JP Morgan (JPM) January 2025 $175-$180 out-of-the-money vertical Bull Call spread LEAPS at $0.50 or best.

Don’t pay more than $1.00 or you’ll be chasing on a risk/reward basis.

January 2025 is the longest expiration currently listed. Please note that these options are illiquid, and it may take some work to get in or out. Executing these trades is more an art than a science.

Let’s say the JP Morgan (JPM) January 2025 $175-$180 out-of-the-money vertical Bull Call spread LEAPS are showing a bid/offer spread of $0.50-$1.50, which is typical. Enter an order for one contract at $0.50, another for $0.60, another for $0.70, and so on. Eventually, you will enter a price that gets filled immediately. That is the real price. Then enter an order for your full position at that real price.

Notice that the day-to-day volatility of LEAPS prices is miniscule since the time value is so great. This means that the day-to-day moves in your P&L will be small. It also means you can buy your position over the course of a month just entering new orders every day. I know this can be tedious but getting screwed by overpaying for a position is even more tedious.

Look at the math below and you will see that a 73% rise in (JPM) shares will generate a 900% profit with this position, such is the wonder of LEAPS. That gives you an implied leverage of 12:1 across the $175-$180 space.

(NVDA) doesn’t even have to get to a new all-time high to make the max profit. It only has to get back to $180, $10 higher than it traded last March.

Only use a limit order. DO NOT USE MARKET ORDERS UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. Just enter a limit order and work it.

This is a bet that JP Morgan will not fall below $180  by the January 17, 2025 options expiration in 2 years and 3 months.

Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:

Buy 1 January 2025 (JPM) $175 calls at………….………$3.00

Sell short 1 January 2025 (JPM) $180 calls at…………$2.50

Net Cost:………………………….………..………......….….....$0.50

Potential Profit: $5.00 - $0.50 = $4.50

(1 X 100 X $4.50) = $450 or 900% in 2 years and 3 months

 

 

 

If you are uncertain on how to execute an options spread, please watch my training video by clicking here.

The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.

Don’t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.

Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices at best. After the alerts go out, prices can be all over the map.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-13 09:02:282022-10-13 15:28:31BUY the JP Morgan (JPM) January 2025 $175-$180 out-of-the-money vertical Bull Call spread LEAPS at $0.50 or best
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 12, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 12, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(I STILL HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-12 10:06:052022-10-12 11:52:43October 12, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

I Still Have an Opening for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge

Diary, Newsletter

I seem to have a recurring problem.

People make so much money from my concierge service that they retire early, and I never hear from them again.

September was particularly egregious because we went into the last crash with 100% cash and then nailed the bottom 100% fully invested.  

That trade brought my 2022 year-to-date performance to +72.93%, a new high. The Dow Average is down -22% so far in 2022. It is the greatest outperformance on an index since Mad Hedge Fund Trader started 14 years ago. My trailing one-year return maintains a sky-high +81.35%.

As a result, I still have one remaining Mad Hedge Concierge place open. I limit the service to only ten clients at any one time.

The goal is to provide high-net-worth individuals with the extra degree of assistance they may require in managing diversified portfolios. Tax, political, and economic issues will all be covered.

It is also the ideal service for the small and medium-sized hedge fund that lacks the resources to support their own in-house global strategist full time.

The service includes the following:

1) Emergency access to John Thomas 24/7 through his personal cell phone number so he can act as your investment 911.

2) A risk analysis of your own personal portfolio with the goal of focusing your investment in the highest return sectors for the long term.

3) A monthly phone call from John Thomas to update you on the current state of play in the global financial markets.

4) Personal meetings with John Thomas anywhere in the world once a year to continue our in-depth discussions, ever the pandemic ends.

5) Early releases of strategy letters and urgent trading information.

6) More detailed recommendations on LEAPS, or two-year call options on the best high-growth names.

7) Access to a dedicated Concierge website listing complete All LEAPS investment portfolios.

The cost for this highly personalized, bespoke service is $12,000 a year.

To best take advantage of my Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, you should possess the following:

1) Be an existing subscriber of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader who is already well aware of our strengths and limitations.

2) Have a liquid net worth of over $250,000.

3) Possess a degree of knowledge and sophistication of financial markets. This is NOT for beginners.

To subscribe to Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, please email Filomena at customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. Please put “Concierge Candidate” in the subject line.

I look forward to hearing from you.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/mr-john-thomas-1-e1595422688475.png 567 450 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-12 10:04:432022-10-12 11:52:26I Still Have an Opening for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

Dear Major Thomas,

Congratulations on your appointment.

I absolutely loved and was fascinated with the latest concierge information. I remember discussing this with you on the phone a month and a half ago and to watch it become reality and read what is happening is a level of involvement that normally I would not be party to.

Of course, it helps make BETTER commercial and personal decisions--- for which I am grateful and thankful.

 It is so great that your expertise has been not just noticed and appreciated by the American government--- but that they are actually listening and acting–– Thank you from all of us

Rodney
Sydney, Australia

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/john-thomas-pilot.jpg 308 432 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-12 10:02:342022-10-12 11:52:00Testimonial
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 11, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 11, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(DINNER WITH BEN BERNANKE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-11 09:04:212022-10-11 13:39:27October 11, 2022
MHFTR

Dinner with Ben Bernanke

Diary, Newsletter

You would never guess Dr. Ben Bernanke was once one of the most powerful men in the world, indeed in all of human history.

There he sat across the table from me in a popular San Francisco Italian restaurant wearing a poorly made grey suit and a cheap pair of shoes, with rubber soles.

Only the occasional interruption from an autograph seeker belied his true importance.

I managed to snare Ben for a couple of hours on his national book tour promoting his just released “The Courage to Act.” Out only days, it was already at the top of the New York Times Best Seller list.

Ben is a different guy now. For a start, you can now call him “Ben” instead of “Governor.”

Remember those carefully parsed, measured, and deliberate words he used to use to explain Federal Reserve monetary policy and his future intentions? That guy is long gone.

The new Ben is funny in a subtle but wickedly clever manner. He is also instructional, thoughtful, even professorial. At the end of the day, Ben Bernanke is now your favorite university faculty member.

Ben’s big revelation to me was that there were no potential triggers out there for another 2008-09 type financial crisis.

American banks have been recapitalized to the extent that they now have a stronger safety net with which to weather any future volatility. US banks are bigger and more profitable than ever.

The big global concern right now is with emerging markets, where trillions of dollars worth of US dollar-denominated debt have been borrowed, collateralized by depreciating local currencies.

Another worry is the perceived “Fed put,” which allowed investors to get complacent with their risk-taking, at least until 2021.

Bernanke believes that rising income inequality is the biggest structural problem we face. It means that not all are benefiting from an improving economy, a goal of Fed policy.

This has been unfolding for 40 years, and won’t be solved in a day, as several presidential candidates are promising.

As a result, the “Horatio Alger” effect, whereby the poorest can rise to success through brains, hard work, and thrift, is now much less likely to occur than in the past.

Bernanke himself is a perfect example of that phenomenon.

Ben and I spoke at length about the dark days of the 2008-2009 crash, and he remembered the daily emails I used to pepper his staff with proposing fixes or patches on an almost daily basis.

Regulation dating from the 1930s had become outmoded and was woefully out of touch with modern-day finance. It was far too lax in the run-up to the crisis.

For example, insurance giant AIG was monitored by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which was utterly clueless when it came to pricing mathematically complex derivatives.

Bernanke warned President Bush as early as 2005 that real estate prices were getting too high and that a crash was coming.

His predecessor, Alan Greenspan, had cautioned during the 1990s that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had a flawed business model that would eventually blow us and take down the financial system with it.

In the end, every major financial institution was tottering on the edge.

Bernanke had the benefit of completing his PhD thesis on the causes and mistakes of the Great Depression, once an arcane area of economic study.

Thanks to the laissez fair philosophy of the 1920s, the Fed let the money supply collapse, and one-third of all banks went under, some 8,000 in total. This froze the entire credit system.

Eight decades later, Ben therefore saw the answer to another looming depression in an inflated money supply, which we saw with QE 1, 2, 3, and 4.

He also helped engineer the $700 billion TARP that bailed out the 20 biggest banks, which he described as the “the most successful, but most hated government policy in history.”

When it was wound down, the US Treasury made an enormous $15.3 billion profit on the program by selling its big bank shares. Bank shareholders picked up the tab through the dilution of their ownership.

Part of the problem in selling the TARP, and later, president Obama’s 2009 $831 billion stimulus budget, was that while the crisis started in New York, Washington, it was slow to reach the hinterlands.

One Republican congressman in Iowa called local car dealers in his district and asked what the big deal was. Ben said, “Just wait,” and General Motors filed for bankruptcy months later.

I asked Ben who was his favorite president, as he was appointed by both George W. Bush and Barrack Obama. He confirmed that he liked working for the two men, but that Bush was the natural practical joker.

When Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Bernanke was required to give a weekly briefing on the state of the economy. Once he committed the grievous sartorial error of wearing tan socks with his trademark grey suit.

Bush complained, stating that the White House had dress standards to maintain.

Bernanke answered that he thought the Bush administration was one of fiscal responsibility, and that he had bought a four-pack of the controversial socks at the Gap for only $10.

When Ben attended the next meeting a week later, he wore the required grey socks with his grey suit. He couldn’t help but notice that everyone else at the meeting was wearing tan socks with their navy suits, including the president.

When Bush met Bernanke to discuss his appointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006, he asked if he had any political experience.

Bernanke replied that he had served two terms on the Montgomery County, Maryland Board of Education in rural South Carolina. Bush said, “that was fine.”

Bernanke is an extremely intelligent man. You can almost hear the wheels whirring when he is thinking.

I asked him my “gotcha” question.

Wasn’t quantitative easing just a means of bridging the demographic chasm of the 2010s, when 85 million baby boomers are retiring? Isn’t it just a way to pull growth forward from the 2020s?

He paused for a moment, and then changed the subject.

Finally, I had to ask if Bernanke ever got a chance to read The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader while Fed Chairman. He diplomatically responded that the “Fed takes great pains to take in all views.”

Touché.

To learn more about Ben Bernanke’s amazing “only in America” rise from obscurity, please click the following links for “Who Is Ben Bernanke,” and “Why Ben Bernanke Hates Me.”

To buy “The Courage to Act” at discount Amazon pricing, please click here.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Ben-Bernanke-story-3.jpg 313 250 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2022-10-11 09:02:432022-10-11 13:38:59Dinner with Ben Bernanke
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 10, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 10, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or EATING YOUR SEED CORN),
(SPY), (TLT), (PANW), BRKB), (JPM), (MS), (V),
(USO), (MU), (RIVN), (TWTR), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-10 09:04:282022-10-10 12:11:20October 10, 2022
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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