Global Market Comments
September 16, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADING FOR THE NON-TRADER),
(ROM), (UXI), (UCC), (UYG)
Global Market Comments
September 16, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADING FOR THE NON-TRADER),
(ROM), (UXI), (UCC), (UYG)
Global Market Comments
September 15, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IS USA, INC. A SHORT?)
(TESTIMONIAL)
What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was losing $3 trillion a year and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion?
Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, unfriend me from your Facebook account, and delete me from your Twitter network.
Yet, that is precisely what my former colleague at Morgan Stanley did a few years ago, technology guru Mary Meeker.
Now a partner at venture capital giant Kleiner Perkins, Mary has brought her formidable analytical talents to bear on analyzing the United States of America as a stand-alone corporation.
The bottom line: the challenges are so great they would daunt the best turnaround expert. The good news is that our problems are not hopeless or unsolvable.
The US government was a miniscule affair until the Great Depression and WWII when it exploded in size. Since 1965 when Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society” began, GDP rose 2.7 times, while entitlement spending leaped 11.1 times.
If current trends continue, the Congressional Budget Office says that entitlements and interest payments will exceed all federal revenues by 2025.
Of course, the biggest problem is with healthcare spending, which will see no solution until healthcare costs are somehow capped. Despite spending more than any other nation, we get one of the worst results, with lagging quality of life, life spans, and infant mortality.
Some 28% of Medicare spending is devoted to a recipient’s final four months of life. Somewhere, there are emergency room cardiologists making a fortune off of this. A night in an American hospital costs 500% more than in any other country.
Social Security is an easier fix. Since it started in 1935, life expectancy has risen by 26% to 78, while the retirement age is up only 3% to 66. Any reforms have to involve raising the retirement age to at least 70 and means testing recipients. If you make $1 billion a year, you don’t need a monthly social security check.
The solutions to our other problems are simple but require political suicide for those making the case.
For example, you could eliminate all tax deductions, including those for home mortgage deductions, charitable contributions, IRA contributions, dependents, and medical expenses, and raise $1 trillion a year. That would only make a dent in our current $3 trillion a year budget deficit.
Mary reminds us that government spending on technology laid the foundations of our modern economy. If the old DARPANET had not been funded during the sixties, Google, Yahoo, eBay, Facebook, Cisco, and Oracle would be missing today. Tech generates about 50% of all the profits in the US today.
Global Positioning Systems (GPS) were also invented by and is still run by the government and has been another great wellspring of profits. (I got to use it during the 1980s while flying across Greenland when it was still top secret. The Air Force base that ran it was called “Sob Story”).
There are a few gaping holes in Mary’s “thought experiment”. I doubt she knows that the Treasury Department carries the value of America’s gold reserves, the world’s largest at 8,965 tons worth $832 billion, at only $34 an ounce, versus an actual current market price of $1,861. By the way, the stash has only been seen once in 50 years.
Nor is she aware that our ten aircraft carriers are valued at $1 each, against an actual cost of $10 billion each in today’s dollars. And what is Yosemite worth on the open market, or Yellowstone, or the Grand Canyon? These all render her net worth calculations meaningless.
No, the USA is not a short. In fact, it is a long term scream long. The arguments as to why show up in the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader every day of the year. During the publishing run of this letter, I have seen the Dow Average soar from 600 to 30,000.
How could I think otherwise?
Mary expounds at length on her analysis, which you can buy in a book entitled USA Inc. at Amazon by clicking here.
Thanks to both of you for taking the time to answer me back. I am going to hang in there.
I like your newsletter because the unbiased perspectives you share and the way in which you look at market opportunities in a realistic, factual manner. I am just hoping to turn that advantage into profit and learn.
I don’t like financial advisors as they open your account, offer canned advice, and disappear after they take your money. I want to have the independent skills needed to manage my own wealth, as I grow old.
I don’t expect that to happen overnight or without advice, but I am hoping that your newsletter is something above par not just in appearance, but in results.
Time will tell.
Thank you again for returning my emails. That says a lot.
Best,
Ryan
Hammond, New York
Global Market Comments
September 14, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON FOR SEPTEMBER 14-16),
(REMEMBERING 9/11)
A collection of the 27 best traders and managers in the world, or eight a day, each giving an educational webinar. Back-to-back one-hour presentations are followed by an interactive Q&A. It’s a smorgasbord of trading strategies, so pick the one that is right for you. Covering all stocks, bonds, commodities, foreign exchange, precious metals, and real estate. It’s the best look at the rest of 2021’s money-making opportunities you will get anywhere. Oh, and we’ll be giving away $100,000 in prizes too. To view the schedule and speakers and register NOW, click here.
Global Market Comments
September 13, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON FOR SEPTEMBER 14-16),
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or VENTURING INTO THE METAVERSE
(SPY), (TLT), (VIX),
Watch out for the term “Metaverse.”
It refers to the virtual world where all things exist in a virtual world.
And here is the great thing about the metaverse. The real world can only grow at an analog rate and is finite. The virtual world can grow at an exponential, viral rate and is infinite.
Infinite markets with infinite customers? That is something that companies and share prices really like to hear about.
We’re getting a peek into the Metaverse right now with the movement of many companies to a virtual world triggered by the pandemic. With employees working at home, a headquarters at a PO Box in Montana to meet regulatory minimums, selling digital services to a digital market, these companies effectively exist only in terms of electrons and bytes.
But suddenly, costs have plunged by 40%, productivity has improved by 40%, and profits have increased tenfold. These are companies you want to own.
No wonder the stock market is going up almost every day. It’s because companies like this are worth more, a lot more overnight!
It's how Silicon Valley leaped from having 80 unicorns to 800 in the span of two years. The future is happening fast.
If you are an old fart who doesn’t want to bother with all this computer mumbo jumbo, invest a few minutes playing Facebook’s (FB) Oculus Rift with your grandkids. Then sit down and watch the 2018 science fiction/fantasy movie Ready Player One. There is a sequel in the works. The second sequel will be you and me.
We have now just suffered the worst trading week since February, with the (SPY) off by a mere $8.5, or 1.9%. We may have a shot at another long-awaited 5% correction this week. If we do, I’ll put half my cash in the market. I’ll put the rest in at a 10% correction.
I highly doubt that stocks will fall by more than that given the massive weight of liquidity in the financial system, even though it’s September. My $475 (SPY) target for end of 2021 still stands and I’m sticking to it. You’re going to have to pry my cold dead fingers off of my forecast.
The only question is which sectors will lead. My bet is on domestic recovery stocks like banks, brokers, hotels, casinos, airlines, cruise lines, and railroads. Delta peaked two weeks ago and is now falling precipitously, especially in the south.
That sets up a second post-Covid recovery trade with the same sector leading the first time.
The way the pandemic ends is that the US gets to 90% immunity, where Covid becomes an annual flu shot. California is already there with 80% of the population vaccinated and 10% getting the disease. Alabama may get there with 60% vaccinations and 30% getting sick. But in a year, the whole country will be at 90%.
Then, we can get on with the rest of our lives.
The August Nonfarm Payroll Report Bombs, coming in at only 235,000 versus an expected 720,000, a huge miss. The headline Unemployment Rate fell 0.2% to 5.2%, a new post-pandemic low. Mysteriously, both stocks and bonds hated it. Manufacturing was up 37,000, while Leisure & Hospitality was zero and Retail at -28,000. Education LOST -25,000 during the back-to-school season. Average Hourly Earnings rose an astonishing 0.6% MOM, or 4.3% YOY. The U6 long-term unemployment rate fell to 8.8%. Goodbye taper. A shortage of workers was to blame, but the economic data has been worsening for a while now. Delta is taking a bigger bite than we thought.
JOLTS comes in at a blockbuster 10.9 million in July, a new record high. This is the number of job openings in the private sector. Anyone who wants a job can get a job. Blame the education gap. The problem is that there is demand for 10.9 million website designers, computer programmers, and internet marketers, and an endless supply of waiters and other restaurant workers.
The Fed says growth downshifted during the summer, thanks to delta and a worker shortage according to the Beige Book release. We already knew that, and a five-point selloff in bonds is telling us that Covid is declining and growth is back on.
Europe tapers, cutting back monthly Eurobond purchases 160-170 billion a month. Governor Christine Lagarde believes any inflation is temporary and the time for emergency stimulus is over. Can the Fed be far behind?
Seven million lose Unemployment Benefits. This should make available more workers whose shortage have been a drag on the economy. Accelerating growth can only be good for stocks.
El Salvador launches Bitcoin as a national currency, creating a national wallet, and offering every citizen $30 to open an account. Most of the accounts will be accessed via cell phones. The central bank bought 400 bitcoins worth $20 million as part of the rollout. The country’s president is helping to sort out technical glitches. Is Bitcoin the next global currency? Bitcoin dropped 10% on the news.
Tesla to make its own whips in a dramatic response to a structural global chip shortage that could last years. The news was good for a $30 pop in the stock this morning. Tesla is already one of the world’s largest chip users, and their needs are expected to jump 50-fold in the next ten years. The move justifies a much larger premium for the stock. It’s all about training the neural network.
Will a Bitcoin ETF approval spike the Market? There are a dozen applications with SEC for the first US-approved crypto ETF. When approved, billions of new cash will pile into Bitcoin off the back of the new improved legitimacy. Buy before the IPO, it’s a classic trading strategy.
My Ten-Year View
When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!
My Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch is down 1.09% in September, thanks to a shortage of low-risk/high-return trading opportunities. My 2021 year-to-date performance soared to 77.48%. The Dow Average was up 13.10% so far in 2021.
That leaves me 60% in cash at 40% in short (TLT), and long (SPY) and (DIS). My last two positions expire in four trading days.
Although we have maxed out the profits with these two positions, I’ll keep them as there is nothing else to do. I’m keeping positions small as long as we are at extreme overbought conditions. The Volatility Index (VIX) now over $20 shows that an entry point may be near.
That brings my 12-year total return to 500.03%, some 2.00 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period and a new all-time high. My 12-year average annualized return now stands at a new high of 42.85%, easily the highest in the industry.
My trailing one-year return popped back to positively eye-popping 115.05%. I truly have to pinch myself when I see numbers like this. I bet many of you are making the biggest money of your long lives.
We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 41 million and rising quickly and deaths topping 670,000, which you can find here.
The coming week will be slow on the data front.
On Monday, September 13, at 12:00 noon, US Inflation Expectations are released.
On Tuesday, September 14, at 8:30 AM, US Core Inflation is published, now the second biggest number of the month.
On Wednesday, September 15 at 9:15, Industrial Production for July is disclosed. At 9:30 AM, we get the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for September.
On Thursday, September 16 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. We also get Retail Sales for August.
On Friday, September 17 at 8:30 AM, we learn the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is disclosed.
As for me, one of the great shortcomings of San Francisco is that we only have a theater district with two venues and it is in the Tenderloin, the worst neighborhood in the city, an area beset with homeless, drug addicts, and prostitution.
I was walking to a parking lot after a show one evening when I passed a doorway. Three men were violently attacking a blond woman. Never one to miss a good fight, I dove in, knocking two unconscious in 15 seconds (thank you Higaona Sensei!). Unfortunately, number three jumped to my side, pulled a knife, and stabbed me.
The attacker and the woman ran off, leaving me bleeding in a doorway. I drove over the Golden Gate Bridge to Marin General Hospital, bleeding all over the front seat of my car, where they sewed me up nicely and put me on some strong drugs.
The doctor said, “You shouldn’t be doing this at your age.”
I responded that “good Samaritans are always rewarded, even if the work is its own reward.”
Fortunately, I still had my Motorola Flip Phone with me, so I called Singapore from my hospital bed for a market update. I liked what I saw and bought 100 futures contracts on Japan’s Nikkei 225. This was back in 1999 when anything you touched went straight up.
Then, I passed out.
An hour later, I woke up, called Singapore again and bought another 100 futures contracts, not remembering the earlier buy. This went on all night long.
The next morning, I was awoken by a call from my staff who excitedly told me that the overnight position sheets had just come in and I had made 40% on the day.
Was there some mistake?
Then I got a somewhat tense call from my broker. I had a margin call. I had also exceeded the exchange limits for a single contract and owned the equivalent of $200 million worth of Nikkei. I told them to sell everything I had at market and go 100% cash.
That was exactly what they wanted to hear.
That left me up 60% on the year and it was only May.
I then called all of the investors in my hedge fund. I told them the good news, that I wouldn’t be doing anymore trades for the fund until I received my performance bonus the following January and was taking off on a long vacation. With a 2%/20% payout in those days, that meant I was owed 14% of the underlying assets of the fund at a very elevated valuation.
They said that’s great, have fun, by the way, how did you do it?
I answered, “Great drug selection.” No further questions were asked.
Then I launched on the mother of all spending sprees.
I flew to Germany and picked up a new Mercedes S600 V12 Sedan at the factory in Stuttgart for $160,000. I then immediately road-tested it on the Autobahn at 130 mph. I made it to Switzerland in only two hours. After all, my old car needed a new seat.
Next, I bought all new furniture for the entire house, each kid selecting their own unique style.
Then, I took the family to Las Vegas where we stayed in the “Rain Man Suite” at the Bellagio Hotel for $10,000 a night, where both the 1988 Rain Man and 2009 The Hangover were filmed.
I bought everyone in the family black wool Armani suits, plus a couple of Brioni’s for myself at $8,000 a pop. For good measure, I chartered a helicopter for a tour of the Grand Canyon the next day.
At the end of the year, I sold my hedge fund based on the incredible strength of my recent performance for an enormous premium. I then left the stock market to explore a new natural gas drilling technology I had heard about called “fracking.”
Four months later, the Dotcom Crash ensued in earnest.
I still have the scar on my right side, and it always itches just before it rains, which is now almost never. But it was worth it, every inch of it.
It’s all true, every word of it and I’ll swear to it on a stack of bibles.
Global Market Comments
September 10, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SEPTEMBER 8 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (PLTR), (TSLA), (FCX), (PYPL), (TAN), (FSLR), (SPWR), (GBTC),
(ETHE), (BRKB), (USO), (UNG), (HD), (IBM), (SQ), (AA), (UBER), (UROY)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the September 8 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from the safety of Silicon Valley.
Q: Do you think we’ll see the under $130 in the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) before January 2022?
A: I don’t think so; I think we could go below $140, maybe below $135. But $130 would be a brand new low in the move and would be a stretch. We basically lost 4 months on this trade due to the countertrend rally, which just ended. I would come out of your (TLT) $130-$135 vertical bear put spreads right here while they still have time value, but keep the $135-$ 140s, the $140-$145’s, and especially the $150-$155’s. The idea was that you just keep averaging up and up until the market turns, and then you make back any loss. We move into accelerated time decay on those deep out of the money put spreads in December, so I would take the money and then offset it with the gains you made in those positions.
Q: Does Palantir (PLTR) look like it’ll hit $100 by year-end?
A: No, the stock has been dead, and management has not been doing anything to promote it. We did get a move up to $45 but it failed. It’s still a great long-term idea as they are growing at 50% a year. Also, they did buy $50 million worth of gold bars as a hedge. But as a short-term trader, Palantir isn’t working. If you have an options position on that I would probably get out of it or roll it forward to 2023.
Q: PayPal (PYPL) is fluctuating up and down with Bitcoin. Do you like PayPal?
A: Absolutely, but it obviously is being dragged down by Bitcoin. It is a temporary down move caused by a one-time-only event in El Salvador. Buy the dip in PayPal. It is a leader in the whole move into a digital financial system.
Q: When is Freeport McMoRan (FCX) likely to move up?
A: As soon as we shift out of the tech trade into the domestic recovery trade, which could be in weeks or months at the latest. We’ll switch from one side of the barbell to the other.
Q: Where do you see Tesla (TSLA)?
A: It keeps going up, so my guess is we top $800 by the end of the year, and maybe $850. The big news here is that Tesla has gone into the chip business, making its own chips in-house which is easy for them to do in Silicon Valley. But it does make them the first global car maker that is also a chip maker, and therefore the stock deserves a higher premium. The stock went up $30 on the news and is great for all Tesla holders. I hope you have the 2023 LEAPS.
Q: Too late to buy Tesla LEAPS?
A: Unless you’re really deep in the money, with something like a $600-$650; but the return on that will only be about 50% in 2 years.
Q: The Biden administration just set a goal of 45% solar by the end of 2050. Which solar stock should I buy here?
A: The problem with solar is as soon as Biden started winning primaries, every solar stock took off like a rocket, figuring he’d win, which he did. All of them went up 6-fold or more as a result of that, then gave up one-third of their gains and are now moving sideways. So if you look at the charts, the classic one to buy here is the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), a basked of the top solar companies. All of these peaked in February and have been doing sideways “time” corrections since then, which means they eventually want to go higher. The other two that have charts that look like they’re finally starting to break out to the upside are First Solar (FSLR) and SunPower (SPWR) after 8 months of consolidation.
Q: Why is the second half of September almost always bad? Is it due to institutional repositioning?
A: Not really, the cash comes into the market at certain times of the year, like end of the year, beginning of the year, and end of each quarter. September seems like the month where they kind of just run out of money. But there's actually also a historical reason for that. For most of American history, we had an agricultural economy. Farmers were more than half the population, and the period of maximum distress for farmers is September, where they put all the money into seed and fertilizer and labor into the field, but they haven't harvested it yet. So, traditionally, they always did a lot of borrowing in September, which caused a cash squeeze and interest rate spike, and a stock market panic as a result. So that's the history behind weak Septembers and Octobers. Once the farmers get the crops in and sell them, that resolves the cash squeeze, interest rates fall, and it’s straight up for stocks for the rest of the year most of the time.
Q: SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) seem to be losing interest. Do you recommend any or stay away?
A: Stay away—they’re all rip-offs and are simply a means by which managers can increase their fees from 2% to 20%. That's what they did with virtually all of them. This will end in tears.
Q: What's your feeling about satellite internet phone service replacing current internet cell service in the future?
A: It’s in the future, but it may be 10 years off in the future. If it happens sooner, it’s because Elon Musk was able to deliver cheap rocket service. He already has 20,000 satellites in the sky for his own Starlink global cell phone service for internet access.
Q: How does one buy a Bitcoin stock?
A: Well first of all, I highly recommend you buy the Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter, which you can get in our store. But there's also the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which allows you to buy a Bitcoin proxy very easily. I’ll even honor the discounted $995 price for my Bitcoin Letter for another day by clicking here.
Q: Is Warren Buffet and his value philosophy something I should be following, or is he outdated?
A: I have to say, buying stocks cheap with high cash flow will never go out of style. Currently, Warren’s big holdings are domestic industrials, banks, and Apple. All of those look like they will do well moving forward. Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) has a built-in barbell element to it and is the subject of one of our LEAPS recommendations which has already been hugely successful.
Q: Is Home Depot (HD) at $330 a bargain?
A: Well, we just had a selloff and it bounced hard, and now we’re waiting for the domestic post delta recovery. It's hard to imagine both Home Depot and Lowes not doing well in this scenario.
Q: What will happen to tech when interest rates rise?
A: My bet is they go sideways to down small until you get another peak in interest rates (the next peak will be at 1.76% in the ten year US Treasury bond, the 2021 high) and once you hit that, then tech will take off like a rocket again, and in the meantime, you play the domestics while interest rates are rising. That is the game and will continue to be the game for a couple of years.
Q: Should I buy IBM (IBM) on a turnaround story?
A: No, I've been waiting for IBM to turn around for 10 years. They just don’t seem to get it. What they do is whenever a division starts to make money, they sell it and get cash like they did with the PC division and this year with its infrastructure business called Kyndryl. So, they’re not leaving any growth for the actual IBM holders.
Q: Do you like Square (SQ) at $256?
A: Yes, and that would be a great 2023 LEAPS candidate. All of the digital settlement payment systems are going to do well in the Bitcoin future. They also own quite a lot of Bitcoin. They are leading the charge into a digitized financial system.
Q: What’s a good Ethereum ETF?
A: The Greyscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is just the ticket.
Q: So you avoid energy, meaning oil and gas?
A: Yes, alternative energy we like, but it’s had an enormous run already so after a 7-month time correction it’s probably safe to get into solar. Traditional oil and gas (USO) is in a long-term secular bear market that started 13 years ago and will eventually go to zero. Last year’s visit to negative futures prices is just a start. Since 2020, the energy market weighting has gone from 15% to 2%.
Q: Is Natural Gas the only rational core fuel for the grid?
A: No, natural gas (UNG) still produces carbon even though it’s only half the amount of oil. This all gets replaced by solar in the next ten years. That’s why I tell people to stay away from energy like the plague. Would you rather buy natural gas at $4.50/btu or get solar electricity for free? Those are basically going to be the choices in ten years.
Q: Who is the biggest Aluminum producer?
A: Alcoa (AA) which we are a buyer on dips. By the way, if we do have to build 200,000 miles of long-distance transmission lines to cover the electrification of the US energy supply, all of that has to be made of aluminum. You don't use copper for long distances, you use aluminum (aluminum for you Brits).
Q: Would you buy Uber (UBER) at $40 today?
A: Probably, yes; it had a nice 40% correction. However, you are buying into the battle over gig workers—whether they should be treated as full-time or part-time workers. That is going to be a continuing drag on the stock until they win.
Q: What do you think of meme stocks?
A: You're better off buying a lottery ticket. Even with a low payoff, you get a 1:10 chance of winning on a $1 lottery ticket. Meme stocks could double or go to zero with no warning whatsoever—there’s no logic to this market at all.
Q: What do you think of Uranium?
A: Three words come to mind: Chernobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island. I think uranium's time has passed, even though China is building a hundred nuclear power plants. It’s just too expensive to compete against solar on a large scale and impossible to insure. If you still like Uranium though, the Uranium Royalty Corp. (UROY) has had a nice pop recently. But the issue is that nuclear technologies can’t keep up with solar and digital. And they blow up.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
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