"We are still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession. I would have to put the likelihood of a double-dip recession now up to 50%," said my old UC Berkeley economics professor, Robert Reich.
Global Market Comments
July 6, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BE CAREFUL WHO YOU SNITCH ON),
(COULD YOU QUALIFY TO BECOME A U.S. CITIZEN?)
Buried in the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are massive financial rewards for turning in your boss. The SEC is hoping that multimillion-dollar rewards amounting to 10% to 30% of sanction amounts will drive a stampede of whistle-blowers to their doors with evidence of malfeasance and fraud by their employers.
If such rules were in place at the time of the settlement with Goldman Sachs (GS), the bonus, in theory, could have been worth up to $500 million. Wall Street firms are bracing themselves for an onslaught of claims, legitimate and otherwise, by droves of hungry gold diggers looking for an early retirement.
Don't count on this as a get-rich-quick scheme. Government hurdles to meet the requirement of a true stoolie can be daunting. The standard of evidence demanded is high and must be matched with the violation of specific federal laws. Idle chitchat at the water cooler won't do. Litigation can stretch out over five years, involve substantial legal costs, and often lead to a non-financial settlement with no reward.
Having "rat" on your resume doesn't exactly look good either. Just ask Sherron Watkins, the in-house CPA who turned in energy giant Enron's Ken Lay, Andy Fastow, and Jeffrey Skilling just before the company crashed in flames. Nearly a decade later, Watkins earns a modest living on the lecture circuit warning of the risks of false accounting, and whistle-blowing.
Global Market Comments
July 5, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADING FOR THE NON-TRADER),
(ROM), (UXI), (UCC), (UYG)
Global Market Comments
July 3, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TAKING OFF FOR EUROPE),
(JOIN ME ON THE QUEEN MARY 2 FOR MY JULY 11, 2018 SEMINAR AT SEA),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Terrorist attacks, trade wars, and crashing airlines all spell one thing to me.
Travel bargains!
Of course, my first choice for a vacation destination this year was the civil war in Syria, so I could find out on the ground what is really happening there. In addition, I could shop for a refugee camp in Jordan for one of my nonprofits to help support.
Unfortunately, my family was not too hot on this idea, not wishing to buy me back from kidnappers at an inflated price, again (the last time was Cambodia in 1976).
The Joint Chiefs were not too thrilled either. At my advanced aged, I simply know too much to fall into the wrong hands. They said I would last a day.
So I compromised. This summer will find me crossing the Atlantic on Cunard's Queen Mary 2 where I will be conducting my Seminar at Sea for a few lucky subscribers.
Then, I'll be camping out at the Hemingway Suite at the Ritz Hotel in Paris for Bastille Day, sailing in a steamboat on the placid waters of Lake Geneva to view the Alps, retreating to my chalet in Zermatt, Switzerland, to climb the Matterhorn for the sixth time, and then passing through Amsterdam to eat some raw herring.
Three tuxes and my white dinner jacket are packed, the five-star hotels are booked, and soon the limo will be waiting outside. The Cessna is fully fueled and the flight plan filed. I am taking off for my 2018 European Strategy Luncheon Tour.
I have worked the hardest in my life the past year, and it is time for a break. I have also put myself through the most grueling training regimen, hiking 2,000 miles and snowshoeing another 600, all with a 60-pound pack.
Every year it seems to get harder to keep the calendar at bay.
Along the way I will be meeting with other hedge fund managers, senior government officials, CEOs at major banks and Fortune 500 companies, large institutional investors, and a Nobel Prize winner or two.
Getting out into the real world and soaking up new data and opinions is invaluable in shaping my own global view, and your performance benefits from it.
Since I don't stumble across these people in my living room, I have to travel the world to seek them out. You can soak up all the online data you want, but nothing beats contact with the real world.
In New York I'll board the Cunard Line's Queen Mary 2 at the Brooklyn Cruise Terminal to take residence in the owner's suite. If the ship's satellite link cooperates this year, I will be filing live reports along the way.
As we pass over the wreck of the Titanic on the second day out, we'll throw a bouquet of flowers as a mark of respect.
I'll then board the Orient Express for Venice, where the dinner is black tie only. Hopefully, there won't be any murders this time.
If a new Brioni suit and pair of Gucci shoes throw themselves upon me while I stroll through the Galleria in Milan I may be unable to resist.
In Geneva I'll be consulting with the representatives of several Middle Eastern royal families while they vacation in the Alps.
One afternoon will be devoted to taking the paddle wheel steamer on Lake Geneva to the Chateau de Chillon in Montreux where Lord Byron used to live, sipping fine Swiss white wines along the way.
The grand finale will be my annual assault on the Matterhorn at Zermatt, which at 14,692 feet is higher than anything we have in the continental U.S. After training all year for this, it's now or never.
I spend my evenings there at public steam baths where afterward I roll around in the snow and beat myself with birch branches. It is invigorating, to say the least.
I will be traveling with my laptop and keeping touch with the markets. While 18th century Internet service is passable, the bandwidth can be snail like. So, unless I see something extraordinary, I will cut back on new Trade Alerts.
After running up a 304% return in 8 1/2 years and beating 99.9% of the hedge funds in the industry, I deserve a break. I need to spend some time alone on a mountaintop, communing with the spirits, attempting to discover the new long-term market trends through the mist.
While on the road, I will continue writing my newsletter, giving you my daily dose of market insight. I will also be re-running some of my favorite research pieces from the past when my travel schedule does not allow Internet access.
This is to expose my thousands on new subscribers to the golden oldies, and to remind the legacy readers who have since forgotten them.
I will be back in San Francisco in early August, glued to my screens once again for another year of toil in the salt mines. In the meantime, please feel free to email me.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter author Arthur Henry and Mad Day Trader Bill Davis will be working straight through the summer. No rest for the wicked!
In the meantime, I shall be raising a glass to all of you at dinner, the loyal readers of The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Salute! Prost! Kampai, and Cheers! Thanks for making this letter a huge success!
If you want to take the opportunity to meet me in person, please find my strategy luncheon schedule below. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click here https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/category/luncheons/ and choose the country and city of your choice.
Wednesday, July 11, 2018: Queen Mary 2 Seminar at Sea
Monday, July 16, 2018: Paris, France Global Strategy Luncheon
Friday, July 27, 2018: Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar
Friday, August 3, 2018: Amsterdam, The Netherlands Global Strategy Dinner
I'll Meet You on Top
My Plug Adapters Are Ready to Go
Come join me in the grand appointments of the Cunard Line's flagship, the elegant and spacious Queen Mary 2, on an eastbound transatlantic cruise.
The Ship departs New York at 10:00 AM on July 6, 2018 and arrives at Southampton on July 13. There I will be conducting the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Strategy Update, a three-hour discussion on the global financial markets.
I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate. I'll highlight the best long and short opportunities. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be tossing a few surprises out there, too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $300 for the seminar only.
Attendees will be responsible for booking their own cabin through Cunard. They offer everything from an inside stateroom from $999 per person to $26,780 for Q1 deluxe two-bedroom apartment with its own gym.
Just visit Cunard's website or call them directly at 800-728-6273 to make your own arrangements.
The weather this time of year can range from balmy to tempestuous, depending on our luck. A brisk walk three times around the boat deck adds up to a mile. Full Internet access will be available, for a price, to follow the markets.
Every dinner during the voyage will be black tie, so you might want to stop at Saks Fifth Avenue in Manhattan to get fitted for a second and third tux. Don't forget to bring your Dramamine and sea legs, although the 151,400 tonne, 1,132-foot-long $900 million ship is so big I doubt you'll need them. The Queen Mary 2 just completed a major refit in Germany so everything is new.
The event will be held at a luxurious penthouse suite on the ship's highest deck, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation. To instill us all with a proper sense of humility, I will conduct the seminar as we sail over the wreck of the Titanic. The ship will give a blast of its horn three times as a salute as we pass the site.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the seminar alone, please click here.
I can't tell you how much I enjoy your blog. It is the first place I go every morning, and I miss you on the weekends.
I stumbled upon your site about four months ago and have been addicted to it since day one. I really appreciate not only your insight into the markets, but also your global and historical perspectives.
All of this served up with your great sense of humor makes it a must read! Thanks for all your hard work.
Chip
"It doesn't take Herculean assumptions to get to $170 for S&P 500 earnings this year. Slap a 17.5 multiple on that, and you get 3,000 for the index," said Brian Jacobsen of Wells Fargo Asset Management.
Global Market Comments
July 2, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR THE FUTURE IS HAPPENING FAST),
(HOG), (TLT), (ROM), (MU), (NVDA), (LRCX),
(SPY), (AMZN), (NFLX), (EEM), (UUP), (WBA),
(THE WORST TRADE IN HISTORY), (AAPL)
