Global Market Comments
November 17, 2017
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY ENERGY WILL MAKE YOUR 2018 PERFORMANCE),
(USO), (XOM), (CVX), (OXY), (EPD), (AMLP), (MPLX),
(WHY YOUR OTHER INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER IS SO DANGEROUS)
Global Market Comments
November 17, 2017
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY ENERGY WILL MAKE YOUR 2018 PERFORMANCE),
(USO), (XOM), (CVX), (OXY), (EPD), (AMLP), (MPLX),
(WHY YOUR OTHER INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER IS SO DANGEROUS)
I have traveled in the Middle East for 50 years.
When I first hitch hiked across North Africa in 1968, camels were everywhere, and most of the population was barefoot.
These are the things I recall when dictator Muammar Gaddafi was deporting me from Libya.
When I grew up a few years later, I covered the neighborhood wars for The Economist magazine during the 1970's.
While representing Morgan Stanley in the firm's dealings with the Saudi royal family in the 1980's, I paused to stick my finger in the crack in the Riyadh city gate left by a spear thrown by King Abdul Aziz al Saud when he captured the city in the 1920's, thus creating modern Saudi Arabia.
They only mistake I made in my Texas fracking investments is that I sold out too soon in 2005, when natural gas traded at $5 and missed the spike to $17.
By now, the only camels you ever see are tourist rides at the foot of the pyramids, the racing camels of the Gulf Emirates.
So let me tell you about the price of oil.
It's going up.
No matter how much oil there is in the world, it is tough to beat a global synchronized economic recovery.
China, Europe, and Japan all running hot at the same time. I bet you didn't know that all of these economies are currently beating America's 3% growth rate, in some cases by miles.
Giving a bow to my new long term forecasts, I don't see the end of global quantitative easing until October 2018. The current bull market in stocks should end in mid 2019, and the next recession won't hit until 2020.
So there is ample room to get one more trade here in oil.
You should do well buying majors like Exxon Mobile (XOM) or Chevron (CVX). You can probably beat those returns through investing in Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
But I'll tell you where the real money will be made:
Master Limited Partnerships, or MLP's.
I always find it a useful exercise to sift through the wreckage of past investment disasters. Not only are there valuable lessons to be learned, sometimes decent trades emerge.
I have been doing that lately in the energy sector, a hedge fund favorite these days, and guess what?
MLP's are back. And no, I'm not talking about the Maui Land and Pineapple Company (MLP) (yes, there is such a thing!).
But these are not your father's MLP's.
With overnight cash yields still at a paltry 0.50%, the allure of high yielding MLP's is still there.
Let me start with my investment thesis.
It is always better to invest in an asset class that has its crash behind it (energy) than ahead of it (equities, bonds).
And lets face it, the final bottom in oil at $25 is in.
We may bounce around in a $45-$60 range for a while. But eventually, I expect a global synchronized economic recovery to take it higher.
And while I have never been a fan of OPEC, they are showing rare discipline in honoring the production quotas negotiated in late 2016.
That eliminates much of the downside from MLP's for the next 18 months and makes it one of the more attractive risk/reward trades out there.
The fact is that the energy revolution in the U.S. remains very much intact.
Keep a laser like focus on the weekly Baker Hughes rig counts, as I do, and you see that we have been on a relentless upturn for nearly two years.
Except that this time it's different.
Thanks to hyper accelerating technology (yes, there's that term again), new wells employ a fraction of the labor of the old ones, and are therefore more profitable.
That means they can function, and even prosper, with a much lower oil price.
Since everything is political these days, I would remiss in not bringing this unsavory issue up.
To say that the new administration is friendly to the oil industry would be the understatement of the century.
Look no further than the Keystone pipeline, which after languishing for eight years, saw approval from the new president during his first week in office.
That means lower taxes, more subsidies, and less regulation of the business, all profit boosting measures.
There is another angle too.
By now, you should all be experts on inflation plays, since you read my opus on the subject in my newsletter only yesterday.
Oil is a great inflation play. As prices rise, consumers can pay ever-higher prices for energy.
The great thing for MLP investors is that many revenue streams are inflation-linked according to fixed formulas, much like TIPS, (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities).
But you have to be clever by half to take advantage of these new trends.
Thanks to the crash, the surviving MLP's are now a much better quality investment.
Balance sheet quality has improved as a result of deleveraging in the last three years, and the worst of the ratings downgrade cycle is behind us.
Importantly, some $50 billion- $60 billion worth of growth opportunities for MLPs are expected during FY2017-2020.
That makes the industry one of the great secular growth stories out there today.
As an old fracker myself I can tell you that the potential of the revolutionary new technology has barely been scratched.
Thanks to technology that is improving by the day, a Saudi Arabia's worth of energy reserves remain to be exploited, and maybe two, turning the US into an energy-exporting powerhouse.
Industry experts expect MLP distributions to grow by 3%-5% annually over the coming years. Few other industries can beat this.
That means avoiding upstream Exploration and Production companies; where there is still a ton of risk, and placing your bets on midstream companies that operate pipelines.
And by midstream I don't just mean pipelines, but also processing facilities for natural gas liquids and storage and terminal facilities.
You especially want to look at companies with high barriers to entry and attractive assets in high- growth and low-cost production regions.
Companies with a sustainable cost advantage, operated by experienced management with proven geological prowess are further pluses.
MLP's also stack up nicely as a diversifier for your overall portfolio.
Over longer time periods MLP's have generated similar returns to equities, with similar to slightly higher levels of volatility.
Historically they have traded at lower yields than high yield bonds, but currently they are yielding 250 basis points more.
And now for the warning labels.
This is not a new story.
As you can see from the charts below, MLP's have been rallying hard since oil bottomed in January, 2016.
Still, with yields in the 7%-10% range, a certain amount of pain is worth it.
Still interested?
Take a look at the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) (6.11%), the Global X MLP Energy Infrastructure ETF (MLPX) (6.11%), and Valero Energy Partners LP (VLP) (4.72%).
By the way, can any readers tell me if my favorite restaurant in Kuwait, the ship Al Boom, is still in business? The lamb kebab there was to die for.
Don't Throw Out the Baby With the Bathwater
Global Market Comments
November 16, 2017
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(STANDBY FOR THE COMING GOLDEN AGE OF INVESTMENT),
(SPY), (INDU), (FXE), (FXY), (UNG), (EEM), (USO),
(TLT), (NSANY), (TSLA)
Global Market Comments
November 15, 2017
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NVIDIA REPORTS...STOCK ROCKETS, AGAIN),
(NVDA), (IBM), (HPQ), (TSLA), (DVMT),
(IS USA, INC. A "SELL")
Last year, whenever anyone asked me for a stock most likely to double in 2017, I uniformly responded with the same name: NVIDIA (NVDA).
For me, it was a no-brainer.
The processor manufacturer occupied the nexus of the entire movement towards machine learning and artificial intelligence, and then was still relatively unknown.
I lied.
The stock didn't double, it more than tripled, from $67 to a high of $219.
These days, I am being asked the same question.
But this time, I'm going to be boring. Believe it or not, the name to double again in 2018 is (NVDA).
You would think I am MAD to be chasing the big winner of 2017.
But take a look at their blockbuster earnings announced last week first, which blew away the street's most optimistic expectations.
Q3 revenue leapt 54% to just over $2.64 billion, and net profits of $1.33 a share, up 33% YOY, and 41.5% greater than expected.
Their gross operating margin is an eye popping 59.7%.
It is dominating in the fastest growing sectors of the technology space, including AI, virtual reality, and fast data processing.
Every automobile company is basing its self-driving technology on its XP computer.
And now there is a new game in town.
(NVDA) is a major beneficiary of the exponential growth of cryptocurrencies, whose need for processing power is growing voraciously.
At this point, the company has a huge installed base of users on which to build on.
Look at the spec sheets of anything you buy these days and you will find NVIDIA parts somewhere in the guts.
I bought a Dell Alienware Area 51gaming PC to run the Oculus Rift virtual reality hardware for my kids this Christmas (they don't read this letter on a daily basis). It came with a state of the art NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 graphics card.
I also happen to know that NVIDIA chips are lurking somewhere in my Tesla (TSLA) Model S-1 and Model X.
Most companies have only one or two artificial intelligence experts. NVIDIA has over 1,000.
While the stock is priced for perfection, it is continuing to deliver just that. The shares actually fell on the earnings announcement.
But let's face it. The momentum of this stock has been unassailable.
However, the company is so far ahead of its competitors it is actually increasing its lead. Nobody has a chance of catching them.
The company is managing an industrywide migration of processing power from the CPU to the GPU. You have to use their architecture, or you will go out of business.
This is why every PC manufacturer, including Dell (DVMT) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ), are partnering with them. IBM (IBM) is using their chips in their high-end machines.
This is because (NVDA) is now first to market with everything important.
Nvidia's dominance of the high-end GPU market is allowing it to soak up all of the spending that would normally have been at least somewhat split between itself and AMD.
Gaming was the big revenue booster for Nvidia, which now accounts for 59% of sales.
Sales of Nvidia's flagship product, the passively cooled 16GB Tesla P100 GPU, is being ravenously consumed by data centers around the country, and should double again in 2018.
And the company has just started to ship its new Volta-based Tesla V100 GPU, which offers a tenfold increase over previous generations.
Hold one of these dense, wicked fast processors in your hand and you possess nothing less than the future of western civilization.
Over the long term, the picture looks even better. It should continue with annual earnings growth of at least 20%-30% a year for the foreseeable future.
At a minimum, the shares have at least another double in them. If I'm wrong, they'll only go up 50%.
Not a bad choice to have.
To learn more about Nvidia, please visit their website by clicking here.
For those of you who did the trade at the beginning, or better yet, bought deep out of the money one year option LEAPS, well done!
I am hearing of 800% returns, or better.
What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was losing billions of dollars a year, and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion?
Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, unfriend me on Facebook, and unfollow me on Twitter.
Yet, that is precisely what my former colleague at Morgan Stanley, technology guru Mary Meeker, did.
Now a partner at venture capital giant, Kleiner Perkins, Mary has brought her formidable analytical talents to bear on analyzing the United States of America as a stand-alone corporation.
The bottom line: the challenges are so great they would daunt the best turnaround expert. The good news is that our problems are not hopeless or unsolvable.
The US government was a miniscule affair until the Great Depression and WWII, when it exploded in size. Since 1965 when Lyndon Johnson's "Great Society" egan, GDP rose by 2.7 times, while entitlement spending leapt by 11.1 times.
If current trends continue, the Congressional Budget Office says that entitlements and interest payments will exceed all federal revenues by 2025.
Of course, the biggest problem is health care spending which will see no solution until health care costs are somehow capped. Despite spending more than any other nation, we get one of the worst results, with lagging quality of life, life span, and infant mortality.
Some 28% of Medicare spending is devoted to a recipient's final four months of life. Somewhere, there are emergency room cardiologists making a fortune off of this. A night in an American hospital costs 500% more than in any other country.
Social Security is an easier fix. Since it started in 1935, life expectancy has risen by 26% to 78, while the retirement age is up only 3% to 66. Any reforms have to involve raising the retirement age to at least 70 and means testing recipients.
The solutions to our other problems are simple, but require political suicide for those making the case.
For example, you could eliminate all tax deductions, including those for home mortgage interest, charitable contributions, IRA contributions, dependents, and medical expenses. That would raise $1 trillion a year, and more than wipe out the current budget deficit in one fell swoop.
Mary reminds us that government spending on technology laid the foundations of our modern economy. If the old DARPANET had not been funded during the 1960s, Google, Yahoo, EBay, Facebook, Cisco, and Oracle would be missing in action today.
Global Positioning Systems (GPS) were also invented by and are still run by the government. They have been another great wellspring of profits (I got to use it during the 1980s while flying across Greenland when it was still top secret).
There are a few gaping holes in Mary's "thought experiment". I doubt she knows that the Treasury Department carries the value of America's gold reserves, the world's largest at 8,965 tons worth $576 billion, at only $34 an ounce versus an actual current market price of $1,280.
Nor is she aware that our ten aircraft carriers are valued at $1 each, against an actual cost of $5 billion each in today's dollars. And what is Yosemite worth on the open market, or Yellowstone, or the Grand Canyon or the Grand Tetons? These all render her net worth calculations meaningless.
Mary expounds at length on her analysis, which you can buy in a book entitled USA Inc. at Amazon by clicking here.
"The rule of thumb is to do your homework, do your analysis, don't give up prudent risk management for the sake of certain fads. Look for real valuations, and stay true to your time frames," said Marc Chandler, the global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
Global Market Comments
November 14, 2017
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(I HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE),
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (AAPL), (TLT),
(THE FAT LADY IS SINGING AGAIN FOR THE BOND MARKET)
We have the good fortune to have an options position left that expires on Friday, November 17 and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
This involves:
The US Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) November 2017 $127-$129 vertical bear put spread
Provided that we don't have a monster "RISK OFF" move in the market over the next few days (war with North Korea?), which cause bonds to rally big time, the (TLT) position should expire at its maximum profit point below $127.
In that case, your profits on this position will amount to 12.32% in 13 trading days, or $1,232.
We got a real gift last week thanks to the Republican mishandling of the tax bill.
A proposal to delay corporate tax cuts into 2019 triggered the sharpest one day selloff of 2017.
This happened the day after I doubled my short position.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don't have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long $129 put position to cover your short $127 put position in the October (TLT), cancelling out the total holding.
The profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning October 23, and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee per leg for performing this service.
If you don't see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally mistakes do occur. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
I don't usually run positions into expiration like this, preferring to take profits two weeks ahead of time, as the risk reward is no longer that favorable.
But we have a excess cash right now, and I don't see any other great entry points for the moment.
Better to keep the cash working and duck the double commissions. This time being a pig paid off handsomely.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so.
In the unlikely event that we approach the upper $127 strike in the (TLT) spread, we may have to do some finessing going into expiration.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration.
This is known in the trade as the "expiration risk."
One way or the other, I'm sure you'll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be.
This expiration will leave me with a 70% cash position.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It's all about getting that "Buy low, sell high" thing going.
I'm looking to cherry pick my new positions going into yearend.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Or use it to pay your upcoming 2017 income tax bill.
It's probably going to be a big one, given how much money you made trading this year.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
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