You would think having a real estate guy for president would be good for real estate.

That is not necessarily so.

Remember that Donald Trump went bankrupt four times with his property ventures. You may lack his skills in extricating himself from these misadventures, let alone reap a billion dollars in tax benefits.

Suffice it to say, it?s complicated.

This is important because most people's best performing investment over the past five years has been their home.

Depending on where you live, and the amount outstanding on your mortgage, the return could be as much as 1,000%.

There is no doubt that the initial impetus a Trump economy will have on residential real estate is positive.

The magnitude of deficit spending that Trump is talking about with jobless claims at all times lows is highly inflationary. Trump wants to throw gasoline on the fire and toss in a few sticks of dynamite for good measure.

Real estate is the best inflation hedge out there.

What?s more, rising incomes will increase purchasing power in what is already a supply constrained market.

As a result, home prices should break free from the current sedentary 5% annual increases to 10% or more, for at least the first couple of years.

The dark side of Trump?s economic policies is that interest rates have taken off like a rocket.

This was already a work in progress as the entire world was already expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at their December 14th meeting.

The Trump win put a turbocharger on this trend.

Yields on ten-year Treasury bonds have leapt from 1.33% in July to 2.30% today, a near record increase of nearly 1.00% in less than four months.

The initial phase of any rate hiking cycle creates a stampede, as buyers rush to beat interest rate hikes and lock in low 30-year rates.

This is a big deal.

For the past five years, I have been advising readers to refinance their homes with ultra low interest rates offered by 5/1 ARMS or adjustable rate mortgages.

The assumption then was that rates would remain lower for longer under a Clinton administration, and that you could always refinance again at near zero rates during the next recession.

That assumption has gone into the ashcan of history, so I changed my mind.

In the Trump world, you want a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. While the rates here have jumped from 3.45% to 4.01% since July, this will appear laughably low in three years.

Despite the recent pops in rates, they are coming off 200-year lows for the US, and 5,000 year lows for the rest of the world. They have a lot more to run.

Higher interest rates bring a stronger US dollar, so the inward flood of foreign investment from abroad, primarily from China and Europe should increase.

But it won?t go into New York penthouses, the kind that Donald Trump sells, because new anti-money laundering statutes have created a cloud over this market.

Instead, foreigners will flock to commercial real estate, or the McMansions that have recently proved so popular.

Trump has also promised to repeal the Dodd-Frank financial regulation bill. This will make it easier for banks to lend, especially to low income families with lower FICO scores.

Subprime is about to make a big comeback.

If you are planning to sell your home, definitely delay the closing into 2017. While no specifics have been mentioned (as with everything else), the reduction of long-term capital gains taxes has long been a Republican panacea.

Delaying a sale by a few weeks could cut your tax bill by hundreds of thousands of dollars.

That appears to be the new game -? avoiding taxes.

One potential threat to housing would be the demise of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

These two quasi-governmental bodies recycle home loans from the private sector and went into receivership after the 2008 crash.

The United States is the only country in the world that engages in this kind of activity which has delivered a long term push on home prices upward.

Trump surrogates have promised to eliminate these two entities, or at the very least, privatize them. If that occurs the bulk of conforming mortgages will lose their de facto government guarantees.

That would bring much higher long-term interest rates, possibly 100-200 basis points, a definite buzz kill for residential real estate.

Unfortunately, this story does not have a happy ending.

While short-term stimulus will deliver a higher high in real estate prices, a lower low will follow when the stimulus ends.

Boom and Bust, that has been the never ending cycle since real estate was invented. Even Donald Trump can?t repeal the Law of Supply and Demand.

While the next bust is probably at least a couple of years off, the seeds of the next financial crisis are being sewn as I write this.

Rape, pillage, and plunder, that is the new investment strategy.

Just don?t forget to sit down when the music stops playing, as millions did in 2008.

Only if you were living on a small desert island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean with no Internet connection did you miss the horrific selloff in technology stocks since the presidential election.

I knew they would become target number one by an incoming Trump administration.

When tech shares briefly rallied on the morning of November 9th, I couldn?t believe my good luck, and dumped everything I owned. They cratered shortly afterwards.

The wreckage has been widespread.

Apple (AAPL) performed an 11.86% swan dive off its October high. Alphabet (GOOG) pared back 10.67%. Facebook (FB) shed 15.03%. Amazon (AMZN) puked an astounding 16.35%.

Is technology dead? I don?t think so, but to find out why not, you must read on.

President-elect Trump certainly made no secret of his displeasure with the tech sector, attacking several specifically by name.

He said he would demand that Apple manufacture its iPhones in the US which would force it to raise prices fivefold. If iPhone production stays in China, it would be subject to Trump?s 45% import duty.

He specified that Amazon, which accounted for 25% of the growth in retail sales this year, would have antitrust problems.

Facebook now finds itself squarely in the middle of the ?fake news? scandal which the Trump campaign so adeptly mastered.

More than any other sector of the US economy, technology was a beneficiary of the globalized economy.

Many companies obtain more than half of their earnings from abroad. Apple intends to obtain a significant portion of its future sales from China.

There is now a great black cloud hanging over these expectations, especially if there is a trade war with the Middle Kingdom.

We now have the greatest anti-globalization president of all time.

It gets worse.

Promises of massive deficit financed domestic spending have sent US interest rates soaring and the dollar along with it.

That immediately diminishes the value of technology?s foreign earnings when translated back to the greenback.

There is also the ATM effect. Investors are realizing long-term capital gains in their technology positions in order to finance purchases of what I call the ?New World Order? stocks in the beaten down sectors of financials, commodities, health care, construction and defense.

This has been exacerbated by the fact that every portfolio and hedge fund manger expected a Clinton win and were positioned to profit from it.

That left them overweight technology in a Trump world.

Indeed, I had friends loading up on Facebook the day before the election, expecting it to take off like a rocket the moment the results were out.

Oops!

It will take months, if not years, for large funds to reallocate their positions to reflect the new era.

And let's face reality here. Technology CEOs were, to a man, Clinton supporters. No overnights in the Lincoln bedroom here!

However, I don?t believe that it is the end of the world for technology companies. Armageddon it is not.

For a start, as the most profitable companies in America, they stand to become major beneficiaries of the cut in the corporate tax rate to 25%.

Furthermore, they are the largest owners of the $2 trillion in profits stashed abroad. Any kind of tax holiday on repatriation would enable them to bring these funds home at last.

And what will tech companies do with the better part of $2 trillion in cash? They don?t need the money, as they are massive cash flow generators.

My bet is they use it to buy back their own stock. I have already seen one report expecting an increase in company share buy backs of 30% in 2017. This is on top of existing gigantic share repurchase plans.

This virtually assures that any further draw downs in tech share prices from here on will be limited, and will be used as buying opportunities by the companies themselves.

And here is the most important reason of all.

There is a hyper acceleration going on which will lead to the intertwining of maybe two dozen different advanced technologies.

This will lead to a renaissance of the technology industry, a new Golden Age for America, and a second Roaring Twenties for the stock market.

Dump your technology stocks here, and you may be forced to buy them back ten times higher in a decade.

Here?s another prediction. No matter who is in power in a decade, I bet they?ll take credit for this revolution, even if they had nothing to do with it.

The basic fact here is that even a Trump driven economy needs iPhones, software, and connectivity.

They may not earn as much as before, but the companies that provide these products and services are still looking at rivers of profits going forward.

The final outcome of the 2016 election may not be a political one, but an investment one.

We will get a chance to buy the best quality earnings stream on the planet at earnings multiples not seen since the 2008 crash. They have already given back 15% in valuations. The haircut could reach 30% before the carnage ends.

This is why I have been telling readers to unload technology for the short term, but to keep them for the long term, especially if they are held by tax advantaged retirement plans like IRAs and 401ks.

And while the outlook may be bleak now, it could appear dramatically better in four years.

This is a sector that ALWAYS comes back.

Is Technology Dead?