Featured Trade: (JULY 18 BARCELONA, SPAIN STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (TIME TO TAKE ANOTHER RIDE WITH GENERAL MOTORS), (GM), (F), (TM), (TESTIMONIAL), (QUANTITATIVE EASING EXPLAINED TO A 12 YEAR OLD)
General Motors Company (GM)
Ford Motor Co. (F)
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-08 01:07:462014-07-08 01:07:46July 8, 2014
The blockbuster nonfarm payroll on Friday, coming in at a heady 288,000 has certainly removed any doubt that the US economy will reaccelerate in the fall. Earlier months were substantially revised up.
Monthly job growth of 200,000 plus now seems to be the new norm, after five consecutive months of such prints.
The headline unemployment rate plunged to 6.1%, a new six year low. American H2 GDP growth of 4% or more now seems to be firmly back on the table.
The gob smacking data has left many hedge fund managers confused, befuddled, and questioning the meaning of life. Loads have been playing the short bond, short equity trade all year, to the unmitigated grief of their investors.
Is smart now the new dumb?
As for me, I have been on the long equity side for almost the entire year, except for a few fleeting moments of mental degradation here and there. After spending most of June unwinding a sizeable US equity position into the rally, I now have little choice but to slap some new positions back on.
Still, there is a way to stay invested in the market and sleep at night. That is to focus on sectors and companies that, so far, have been left at the station during the 2014 bull market.
This is why I charged into a long in General Motors (GM) on Friday, the stock, until now, weighed down by past management?s unfortunate proclivity for killing off their customers.
The housing stocks (ITB), inhabitants of the doghouse for the past year, also look pretty interesting here. May pending home sales came in at a robust 6.1%, the best in four years, while pending home sales (contracts signed) leapt a positively eye popping 18.1%, a six year apex.
Revival of a moribund housing market is another piece of the puzzle that gets us to 4% GDP growth this year.
Bonds seemed to sniff out the great things coming by rolling over two days ahead of the June payroll news, diving some two points. Did they have advance notice, or are bond guys just smarter than we dullards in the equity world (true!)?
Rising US interest rates, a byproduct of a strengthening economy, will certainly lead to one thing: a more virile Uncle Buck and a sagging Euro. Interest rate differentials are the primary driver of foreign exchange movements.
So, you always want to be long the currency with rising rates (ours), and short the one with falling rates (theirs). So I am happy to sell short the beleaguered European currency here.
We saw the multi month selloff in the Euro going into the European Central Bank?s announcement of interest rate cuts and quantitative easing last month. Since then we have seen a classic ?buy the rumor, sell the news? short covering rally that has taken the euro up a counterintuitive two points.
The second move is just about to run out of steam.
Weakening data from the European economy, which is trailing that of the US, Japan, Australia, and even China, suggests that the Euro zone will see more easing before it experiences a tightening.
In proposing the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) August, 2014 $136-$138 in-the-money bear put spread, I have been devious in the selection of my strikes. The near $136 put strike that I am shorting here against the long $138 put is exactly 50% of the move down from the double top at the March and May highs.
It also helps that the (FXE) was firmly rejected from the 50 day moving average on the charts.
We are getting a further assist from the calendar, which is giving us an unusually short monthly expiration on August 15. Most of Europe will be closed until then, not a bad time to be short Euro volatility.
I was also in a rush to get these out before the long July 4 weekend sucks out what little premium is left in the options market.
For those who don?t have options coursing through their veins, the ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (EUO) makes an ideal second choice. This 2X leveraged fund rises when the Euro falls, not by two times, but enough to make it worth the trouble. Or you can just sell short the 1X Currency Shares Euro Trust ETF (FXE).
Finally, if you are looking for another way to slumber like a baby with your long equity position, you can use a short position in the Euro to partially hedge your stock portfolio as well. US stock market weakness generally triggers a strong dollar and a weak Euro, as financial assets rush into a flight to safety mode.
The Time to Dump the Euro is Here
The Time to Dump the Euro is Here
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Euro-Symbol.jpg306329Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-07 09:22:002014-07-07 09:22:00The Time to Dump the Euro is Here
So, I?m sitting here in my Turkish redoubt, fighting off unusually aggressive flies and going over my charts. It?s further proof that no matter where in the world you travel, work follows you.
There is truly no rest for the wicked.
As a respite, I have the Best of the Guess Who playing on iTunes.
I noticed that the market priced our Caterpillar (CAT) July, 2014 $97.50-$100 in-the-money bull call spread at $2.50 at last night?s close. This is despite the options still having ten days left to the July 18 expiration. This means that the market is effectively pricing the inverse, the Caterpillar (CAT) July, 2014 $97.50-$100 in-the-money bear put spread at zero.
It?s not just Caterpillar that is doing this. I see this happening across the market, where downside protection is being thrown away for nothing. I see anomalies like this happening from time to time, but not very often. Think of it as complacency in the extreme, on adrenaline and with a turbocharger.
It always ends in tears, but who knows when? I priced the alert at $2.48 just to allow two cents for you to get an execution done. This should add 1.04% to your total return for 2014. If some high frequency dummy is willing to work for pennies, that?s fine with me. Nobody works for free.
If you don?t get done today, then re-enter the order on Monday. You will almost certainly get taken out after they remove the long weekend time decay.
Taking profits here does give you some black swan protection. We could have a flash crash at any time, if not in the main market, then certainly in single names. It also removes a 9/11 type risk. Sure, you say, this is all very improbable. But then, 9/11 was viewed as an impossibility on 9/10.
This has been a bang up trade for us in an otherwise detestable trading environment. We caught a nearly 10% rise in the shares in a market that was otherwise quiescent. I managed to do this with a half dozen other names as well.
It?s not that I have suddenly fallen out of love with the maker of heavy construction and mining equipment. I think (CAT) will continue to appreciate for the rest of 2014, possibly rising to $120-$130/share.
I have been following this company for 40 years and it is one of the most solid, best-managed companies out there. And I love their cool, yellow baseball caps.
(CAT) has finally crossed the wide desert and will continue from strength to strength (there goes those Middle East metaphors again!). And if China manages to engineer a recovery, then it will be really off to the races. So will the rest of the entire industrials sector for that matter.
The other problem with taking off a trade here is that there is nothing to replace it. Zero premiums mean there is not another risk-controlled position to replace the outgoing (CAT) position.
So don?t expect a lot of joy from me on the Trade Alert front until August.
I always take this as an invitation to say, ?Thank you very much, Mr. Market? and take a profit. It is also a sign of how far volatility has fallen, and by implication, option premiums.
Thank you, Mr. Caterpillar!
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Caterpillar-Tractor.jpg295494Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-07 09:21:402014-07-07 09:21:40Taking Profits on Caterpillar
Yes, I know that the presidential election of 2016 is another two years off. But if you already know the outcome of that contest you can use it to your advantage trading the markets today.
You don?t want to get caught out like many conservatives did in 2012, who were forced to dump stock in a hurry to beat a surprise jump in capital gains taxes after an unexpected Obama win, triggering a 10% market correction.
By the way, that was the last 10% correction we got. It has been straight up from there.
If you have any doubt that Hillary Clinton will be the slam-dunk winner in 2016, take a look at the table below. According to a poll conducted by Quinnpiac University in New Haven, Connecticut, the former Secretary of State beats every Republic front-runner in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio, often by huge margins.
Notice that the more conservative the candidate, the bigger the losing margin. I have always believed that the United States is a fundamentally moderate, middle of the road country.
Whenever either party leans towards extremes, they are sent to the woodshed, where they are punished severely by the voters. At the end of the day, most Americans just wish that the government would go away.
In another poll I saw Clinton is leading by 60%-40% with Republican women. Democrats are counting on many to cross party lines to vote for the first woman president, as they did for the first black one in 2008. Most other leading, non-partisan polls are reaching the same conclusion.
You can forget about Senator Ted Cruz from Texas because he was born in Canada, with a Canadian father. After carping about Obama being from Kenya for eight years, the last thing the Republicans will do is run another foreigner for president.
So what will President Hillary mean for the market? There?s no point in asking her. Officially, she is not even running yet. She is on the lecture circuit now earning $225,000 a pop. But I have been in touch with some of her recent and past staff people, and the answer seems to be not much.
With our Middle Eastern wars done, Al Qaida a distant memory, the economy going great guns, unemployment down, and the US energy independent, Clinton should inherit a country that is in pretty good shape.
With the economy reaccelerating back to a 3%-4% growth rate, and no new wars, the budget should be close to balancing. The dollar will be endemically strong.
We should be at the threshold of a Pax Americana. In these goldilocks conditions stock portfolios should rise by 10% a year, and 13% with dividends, and inflation will stay under control. Bonds will slowly grind down and interest rates up, but no by much. That works for me.
So, social issues will be the top legislative priority. You can expect to hear a lot about gun control. Assault rifles, especially military ones like the AR-15, and high capacity magazines will become history. You can also count on federal restrictions on the resale of firearms and closer tracking of convicted criminals.
Immigration will be another hot button item. Expect measures to permit the 10 million illegals currently in the country to gain access to citizenship, subject to strict conditions. This is the umpteenth time we have done this in my lifetime.
Clinton will also make an effort to roll back restrictions on voter?s rights now rampant in red states. Ten-hour lines to vote in black neighborhoods in Miami should become a thing of the past. The same will hold true for state restrictions on abortion, such as mandatory ultrasounds.
President Obama did the heavy lifting with financial regulation through Dodd-Frank and with health care in the Affordable Care Act. It will be up to Hillary to implement and enforce existing law, a far easier task. Who knows? The website might even be working by 2016?
The same will be true with tax reform. Obama delivered the big hit when the federal income tax rate jumped from 35% to 39.50%. Clinton will probably only nibble at the edges. It will be hands off for the middle class.
Target number one: the ?carried interest? treatment that assures that most hedge fund managers, like me, pay no more than a 15% annual rate. Capital gains could also see another 5% move.
But with the federal budget balancing, there shouldn?t be any need to raise taxes, unless you want to pay off the $17.5 trillion national debt faster. In any case, that will happen by 2030 under current law, and with improved growth outlook.
Big earners can expect to see their favorite deductions whittled back as well. Home mortgage interest deductibility will get capped at mortgage values of $250,000-$500,000. Limits will be placed on tax-free charitable donations. Company provided health insurance will become fully taxable as regular income, and will eventually get blended in with Obamacare.
The really big impact President Clinton will have on the future of the country will be with her Supreme Court appointments. It is likely that at least one conservative justice will retire or die before the end of her second term in 2024.
That will enable her to shift the 5-4 convective majority to a liberal one for the first time in 50 years. That assures a liberal bent in the Court?s decisions until 2064. After that, I will be long dead, or 112, so I won?t care what happens.
A rapid succession of legal challenges will follow that will eventually bring to an end of gerrymandering of congressional elections and anonymous corporate campaign donations. That will turn Texas, Arizona and several other states into blue ones. Gay rights will reach full equality, if it hasn?t already happened by then.
This has already happened in California. What was the outcome? Radicals on both the right and left were abandoned in droves, as there was no longer any mileage there. Everyone suddenly became a moderate and pragmatist. Gridlock ended, and the government returned to doing the people?s work. Ratings on cable TV talk shows fell.
Who will Hillary bring into her cabinet? I suggest former presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, as the next Secretary of Health and Social Services. He is the only person who has every gotten government provided health care to work in the US, with his highly successful Massachusetts program.
I think it will take ten years to fully implement Obamacare and for it to become actuarially sound. In the end, Obamacare should cost the government nothing, and reduce the cost of health care for the rest of us. That?s how the Lloyds of London insurance exchange functions. A private equity guy should be able to deliver that, right?
So who will be Hillary?s first appointment to the Supreme Court? President Obama will be only 55 when his second term ends and is a constitutional law professor with a proven track record. The kids are already placed in local schools. The only thing he will be need is a new residence. What else is an ex president supposed to do?
The bigger question will be what to do about Bill? Will he be the first husband, the dude, or just another Mr. President.
Mr. and Mrs. President? The possibilities boggle the mind.
Looking for a Replay
Are You Ready for President Hillary?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Hillary-Clinton.jpg386307Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-04 01:04:172014-07-04 01:04:17The Markets and President Hillary
Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 19.74% GAIN IN 2014), (GOOGL), (TLT), (CAT), (IBM), (SPY), (VIX), (MSFT), (POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (RJA) (THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)
Google Inc. (GOOGL)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Teucrium Wheat (WEAT)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
Teucrium Soybean (SOYB)
ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agri ETN (RJA)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-03 01:06:092014-07-03 01:06:09July 3, 2014
I am writing this to you from the ancient city of Bodrum on the southwest coast of Turkey. Coming here, I had to set my watch ahead ten hours, then back 3,000 years.
As I sit here on my balcony, a flotilla of yachts, both large and small, motor by with the Greek island of Kos hovering in the background in the haze. Smoke from the gurgling water pipes below waft in my direction.
The carnage in Syria goes on 400 miles to my east and worse in Iraq another 300 miles in the distance. The security forces are on a nervous alert and machine guns held by jumpy, sweating teenagers are everywhere. My five star hotel is eerily vacant, even though it is peak season, but the service is great.
Despite these ominous signs, I am happy to report that the industry beating performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service has punched through to a new all time high.
The total return for my followers so far in 2014 has reached 19.74%, compared to a far more feeble 1.4% for the Dow Average during the same period. June came in at a robust 4.32%.
I managed to pull this off during some of the most difficult trading conditions in market history. Turnover across all asset classes is hitting decade lows (see chart below), and volatility has crashed through the floor. Most of the rest of the hedge fund industry is getting destroyed.
The three and a half year return is now at an amazing 142.24%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 36%.
That brings my averaged annualized return up to 39.7%. Not bad in this zero interest rate world. It appears better to reach for capital gains than the paltry yields out there.
This has been the profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was first launched in 2010. Thousands of followers now earn a full time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud of.
Like most of the industry, I expected May and June to be poor months for risk assets. The market has had a tremendous run over the last two years, and the spring historically heralds a period of seasonal weakness.
Wrong!
One of the toughest things to do in this business is to admit you blew it, and then execute an immediate risk reversal in your portfolio.
In the end, the failure of the market to fall meant that it could only go up. We got additional help from month end window dressing, calming events in the Ukraine, and a 7:1 share split at Apple.
Another particularly vexing challenge is that the principal market driver has shifted from economics to geopolitics. The global economic recovery continues, but at a pace so modest that it hardly moves the needle on the volatility front.
The world is waiting to see whether the US can deliver a second half GDP growth rate of 4% per annum?.. or not.
In the meantime, a megalomaniac in Russia and terrorists in the Middle East are determining the short-term direction of asset prices. No hedge fund trader has any edge here, so calls on the coming price action are little more than educated guesses and wishing.
Good luck outperforming in that environment!
I played June predominantly from the long side, accumulating a basket of positions in old technology and traditional industrial names like IBM (IBM), Google (GOOGL), Caterpillar (CAT), and Microsoft (MSFT). I then opportunistically laid out hedging shorts in the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Treasury bond market (TLT).
As the market has tortuously ground up, I have whittled back my portfolio. I figured out that the way to make money trading in this market was not to trade, to ignore the day-to-day counter trend moves.
As a result, almost every day in June was profitable for my followers.
Quite a few were able to move fast enough to cash in on the move. To read the plaudits yourself, please go to my Testimonials Page . They are all real, and new ones come in almost every day.
My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, was no slouch either, dodging in an out of the raindrops to make money on an intraday basis.
What would you expect with a combined 85 years of market experience between the two of us? Followers are laughing all the way to the bank.
Don?t forget that Jim clocked an amazing 2013 with a staggering 374% trading profit. That was just for an eight-month year!
The Opening Bell with Jim Parker, a quickie but insightful webinar giving followers an instant snapshot of the market opening every day, has been an overwhelming success. Many customers have already reported dramatic improvements in their trading results.
Watch this space, because the crack team at Mad Hedge Fund Trader has more new products and services cooking in the oven. You?ll hear about them as soon as they are out of beta testing.
Our business is booming, so I am plowing profits back in to enhance our added value for you. Next out will be the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Channel on YouTube that will enable me to post videos from my frequent travels around the world.
The coming year promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere by the end of 2014.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011, 14.87% in 2012, and 67.45% in 2013.
Our flagship product,?Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO, costs $4,500 a year. It includes my Global Trading Dispatch?(my trade alert service and daily newsletter). You get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous research database, and live biweekly strategy webinars. You also get Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service and?The Opening Bell with Jim Parker.
To subscribe, please go to my website at?www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the?Global Trading Dispatch??or ?Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO??box on the right, and click on the blue??SUBSCRIBE NOW??button.
Hello from Istanbul
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/John-Thomas.jpg363456Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-03 01:05:492014-07-03 01:05:49Mad Hedge Fund Trader Sets New All Time High with 19.74% Gain in 2014
President Barrack Obama certainly arrives at a party like a rock star.
Three silver GM Suburban?s flanking a hulking, armored black Cadillac limo screech to a halt with lights flashing. All of the roads in the immediate vicinity are closed to traffic.
A dozen sunglasses bedecked Secret Service agents leap out, immediately scanning the perimeter. The president bounds out and briskly walks to the plush home of a wealthy supporter.
I managed to briefly touch base with the president during his recent fund raising swing through the San Francisco Bay area. There, I received a sweaty handshake and a thank you from the former South Chicago community organizer.
It was all part of a broad swing through the Western states to rally the faithful, and to top off the DNC's coffers, which has raised a record $50 million in California this year. Perhaps Obama just wants to be among friends. While his national job approval rating languishes at 47%, it is 55% here, and an eye popping 72% among Democrats.
Since the 2012 election, some 6 million millennials, generation Y's, or echo boomers have gained the right to vote. Have you spoken to your kids lately? The only issues they care about, the environment, global warming, gay rights, and ending the war, are overwhelmingly Democratic ones. Another 4 million immigrants have also joined the voter rolls.
Sure, only 30% of these groups vote at all. But when election results swing on majorities that can be counted in the hundreds, think Florida in 2000, Ohio in 2004, and Minnesota in 2008, they could make a decisive difference.
The polls we see reported daily are only taken of participants with landlines. So they may be undercounting both cell phone addicted, texting millennials, and immigrants. How many of your kids have landlines? My bet would be none.
Now, let me throw one big unknown out there. Thanks to the Supreme Court's Citizens United vs. the Federal Election Commission decision, the most recent election was the first to see unlimited anonymous corporate donations since the sixties. As a result, the number of election ads disclosing donors has fallen from 97% in 2006 to 32%.
California's proposition 23 was a perfect example of what this means. Billed as the 'Save California jobs bill,' the measure was placed on the ballot and promoted by $6 million in financing from Texas base energy giant Tesoro Petroleum (TSO). And what is the company's plan to create California jobs? Suspend the state's stringent environmental regulations so it could build a new oil refinery in nearby Martinez.
In every postwar election, the party in power has lost an average 27 House seats in the midterm elections. Obama knew this the day he walked into office. That is why the most radical parts of his agenda, like health care, were front end loaded. Expect to hear much about the President's surprise, Clintonesque move to the middle, which was in fact, planned two years ago.
Yes, I know, I should stick to my day job of calling every turn in the market. But sometimes, that profession and making political prognostications become one in the same. Knowing who the next president is going to be is an immensely valuable piece of market information, as the economic philosophies of the two parties are so radically different.
Do you think the White House situation room has a ladies room?
You Look Pretty Safe to Me
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Obama-with-Security.jpg328398Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-02 01:03:302014-07-02 01:03:30Drinks with the President
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