Global Market Comments
February 27, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY I?M SELLING SHORT THE MARKET)
(SPY), (TSLA), (NFLX), (FB), (PCLN), (YELP), (XLF), (XLE),
(REPORT FROM NEW ZEALAND),
(ENZL)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Facebook, Inc. (FB)
priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN)
Yelp, Inc. (YELP)
Financial Select Sector SPDR?? (XLF)
Energy Select Sector SPDR?? (XLE)
iShares MSCI New Zealand Capped (ENZL)
Let me give you my thinking here. I am a long-term bull, expecting the S&P 500 to be up 10% or more to over 2,000 by yearend, and possibly 20,000 by 2030. But yearend is a long time off (even though every year seems to go by faster). We have just had a massive 11 point pop in the (SPY) during my two week trip to Australia. So a period of digestion is called for.
My (BAC) $15-$16 bull call spread is now naked long, so a little bit of downside protection is justified. Keep in mind that this is only a partial hedge, not a full one. But the additional potential profit from this SPDR S&P 500 March, 2014 $189-$192 bear put spread does lower the breakeven price of the (BAC) position by a respectable 46 cents.
The present dynamics of the market favor this trade. All of the action is now in speculative, momentum driven names like Tesla (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX), Facebook (FB), Priceline (PCLN), and Yelp (YELP), which are not even in the (SPY) index. The big leadership names, like financials (XLF) and energy (XLE) are pretty much dead in the water. As long as this is the case, don?t expect any big moves in the (SPY).
And with a short dated March 21 expiration, we only have 15 trading days where we need to be right on this.
As a rule of thumb, don?t chase this spread trade if the price has already moved more than 2% by the time you get the Trade Alert. Just put in a limit order and if it gets done, great. If not, wait for the next Trade Alert. There will be plenty of fish in the sea.
The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the trade to come to you. The middle market is the halfway point between the bid and the offered prices that you see on your screen with your online broker.
The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous. Don?t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices only. Spread pricing can be very volatile especially on expiration months farther out.
Global Market Comments
February 27, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DIVIDEND HIKE COULD SEND BANK OF AMERICA FLYING),
(BAC), (XLF), (SPY),
(PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(IS USA, INC. A ?SELL?)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Financial Select Sector SPDR?? (XLF)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Bank of America (BAC) certainly was the chief whipping boy of the financial crisis. Since 2008, it has paid out more than $50 billion in fines and lawsuit settlements for every transgression under the sun.
After getting a bail out from the US Treasury, it was forced to cut its dividend payment to a token one cent. Do any Google search on the company and you are inundated with a flood of bad news.
All that is now ancient history. The entire banking industry is now moving into the sweet spot in the economic cycle. This is because rising interest rates mean that they will be able to charge more for leans, while their cost of funds (deposits and equity) remains low. This rising spread falls straight to the bottom line.
With the 30 year bull market in bonds now at an end, substantially higher rates in the near future are now included in virtually every economic forecast out there. Since the beginning of 2014 the ten-year Treasury yield has rocketed from 3.05% to as high as 2.58%, pummeling bank shares.
What happens next? They go from 2.58% back up to 3.05%, then a lot more. Bank shares will ride on the back of this bull.
The jungle telegraph is now ringing with the prospect of a dividend hike by the company, from a penny to five cents. The implications of such a move are broad.
For a start, the company would have to get the permission of the Federal Reserve to do so. If it pulls this off, it is only because of renewed confidence by the government in the improved financial condition of the country. After several capital raises and the liquidation of the wreckage of the 2008 crash, US banks are now the healthiest in history, with balance sheets of bedrock stability.
If (BAC) can get this first dividend hike through, more will follow. To get the dividend yield on the shares up to industry standard of 2.5%, the company really needs to raise its dividend to 40 cents. If certainly has the cash flow to do this. In 2013, (BAC) reported net income of $11.4 billion, more than four times to amount needed to cover such a payout.
Needless to say, this is all great news for the share price. The prospective return of increasing amounts of capital to shareholders should suck in new and wider classes of shareholders. It won?t be just about hedge fund punters anymore.
Take a look at the charts below, and it is clear that such a move is setting up. (BAC) is reaching the end of a classic triangle formation, which traditionally resolves itself to the upside. You can find more dry powder in the chart for the Financials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), which clearly rejected a complete breakdown at long term trend support in early February.
Finally, take a gander at the chart for the S&P 500. New life from the financials will be the adrenaline shot this market needs to break it out of its current low volume sideways consolidation, taking it to new highs.
This is why I popped out the trade alert to buy the (BAC) March $15-$16 call spread on Monday. Thanks to the denial of service attack on our email provider, AWeber Communications, it has taken me until now to get this update out.
It is all another reason to sign up for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s text alert service, which readers around the world received within an incredible ten seconds of the original issue of the Trade Alert. I saw it work its magic when I was in Australia, and it is a sight to behold.
Global Market Comments
February 26, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY APRIL 4 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(ANOTHER HOME RUN WITH NATURAL GAS),
(UNG), (DGAZ), (UNL),
(GET READY FOR YOUR NEXT BIG TAX HIT)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
VelocityShares 3x Inv Natural Gas ETN (DGAZ)
United States 12 Month Natural Gas (UNL)
It looks like I hit the nail on the head once again with a major short position in the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG).
After my followers bought the July, 2014 $26 puts at $2.16 on Monday, the (UNG) suffered its worst trading day since 2007, the underlying commodity plunging a breathtaking 11%. The puts roared as high as $3.05, a gain of 42% in mere hours. I wish they were all this easy!
If the (UNG) returns to the February low of $22.50 in the near future, you can expect these puts to soar to $5.00. That?s an increase of 130%, and would add 6.53% to our 2014 performance. Please pray for warmer weather, and dance your best weather dance.
It took a perfect storm of technical and fundamental factors to trigger this Armageddon for owners of the troubled CH4 molecule. One of the coldest winters in history produced unprecedented demand for natural gas.
This happened against a backdrop of a long term structural conversion from coal and oil fired electric power plants to gas. Not only is natural gas far cheaper than these traditional carbon based fuels, burning it generates half the carbon dioxide and none of the other toxic pollutants.
The result for traders was one of the boldest short squeezes in history. The incredibly $6.50 Monday opening we saw in natural gas, and the $28 print for the (UNG) was purely the result of distressed margin calls and panic stop loss covering.
At one point, the February natural gas futures, set to expire in just two days, were trading at a 40% premium to the March futures. Extreme anomalies like this are always the father of great trades.
The extent of the industry short position is evident in the cash flows in the underlying exchange traded notes (ETN?s). As prices rose, the long only (UNG) saw $366 million in redemptions, about 36% of its total assets. The Natural Gas Fund (UNL) has lost more than a third of its capital.
On the flip side, the Velocity Shares 3X Inverse Natural Gas Fund (DGAZ) pulled in some $449 million in new investors. Since the rally in natural gas started in November (DGAZ) has cratered from $18 to $2.5. This is why I never recommend 3X leveraged ETF?s.
This all adds currency to my argument that the natural gas revolution is bringing the greatest structural change to the US economy in a century. The industry is evolving so fast that you can expect dislocations and disruptions to continue.
The current infrastructure reflects the state of the market a decade ago and is woefully inadequate, with a severe pipeline shortage evident.? Gas demand is greatest where supplies aren?t. Infrastructure needed to export CH4 abroad is still under construction (see my piece on Chenier Energy (LNG) by clicking here).
The state of North Dakota estimates that it is losing $1 million a day in tax revenue because excess natural gas is being flared at fracking wells for want of transportation precisely when massive short squeezes are occurring in the marketplace. Needless to say, this is all a dream come true for astute and nimble traders, like you.
The question is now what to do about it.
I just called friends around the country, and it appears that a warming trend is in place that could last all the away into March.
It is time to get clever. It would be wise to enter a limit day order to sell your $26 puts right now at the $5.00 price. Since the first visit to these lower numbers usually happens on a big downside spike, the result of stop loss dumping of panic longs accumulated by clueless short term traders this week, you might get lucky and get filled on the first run.
These happen so fast that it will make your head spin, and you won?t be able to type an order in fast enough. If you don?t get filled keep reentering the limit order every day until it does get done, or until we change our strategy.
This has been one of my best trades in years, and it appears that a lot of followers managed to successfully grab the tiger by the tail.
Good for you.
Now We?re Cooking with GasGlobal Market Comments
February 25, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IM BACK FROM THE LAND DOWN UNDER),
(FEBRUARY 26 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER LEAPS AHEAD WITH A 9.31% 2014 RETURN),
?(UNG), (BAC)
(BUDGET CUTS HIT THE WILD ANIMAL MAKET)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
I?m half mad with jet lag, and I haven?t pooped in three days. But I?m back from the magical Land Down Under.
It was another one of those incredible, once in a lifetime, bucket list type trips. The highlight was flying my own plane out to a small speck of a coral island 40 miles at sea in the Great Barrier Reef National Park.
There I spotted electric blue starfish, snapping moray eels, a pod of dolphins, rode the back of a giant sea turtle, and swam with giant manta rays and reef sharks. Strangely, I felt right at home with the sharks, perhaps a byproduct of my day job?
I planned to ease my way back into the market, waiting for the next sweet spot to get my feet wet. But what did I get? Natural gas (UNG) opened on a spike at $28. To quote William Shakespeare, ?They must be out of their F?? mind.? Out went the Trade Alert to buy the July puts, this time at the $26 strike. They promptly obliged by rocketing 20% in value in hours, adding an immediate 100 basis points to our performance this year, taking me to yet another new performance all time high. Well, maybe Shakespeare really didn?t say that, but I did.
I followed up with another aggressive long in Bank of America (BAC). After that, a denial of service attack took down our email distribution provider, so that was it for the day. Welcome back to the fast lane.
I will write at greater length in the near future about my adventures in the Antipodes, of which there were many. Until then, I will be working with Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker, on the Wednesday strategy webinar. Suffice it to say that I am now singing Waltzing Matilda in the shower every morning.
Wine Tasting in New Zealand
The red hot performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service has maintained its blistering pace from last year, picking up another 9.31% profit in the first seven trading weeks of 2014.
The Dow Average was down 2.3% during the same period, pegging my outperformance of the index at a stunning 11.6%. Since the beginning of 2013, I am up 76.8%. 2013 closed with a total return for followers of 67.45%.
The three-year return is now an eye popping 131.8%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 36%. That brings my averaged annualized return up to 41.7%.
This has been the profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was launched in 2010. It all is a matter of the harder I work, the luckier I get.
The hot streak continues.
The smartest thing I did in the past year was to let all of my options expire on January 15, and then moved to an 80% cash position. That spared me the angst, the soul searching, and the sleepless night caused by the 10% correction that followed in the Dow Average.
This set me up to cherry pick the most extreme market moves. But this time was different. Instead of returning to call spreads, I adopted an outright put option strategy.
This paved the way for me to pick up highly leveraged short positions in Treasury bonds and natural gas, while risking only 5% of my capital with each. Don?t people know that polar vortexes only come in pairs? I guess no one studies physics anymore. When the markets broke, a sharp rise in volatility also contributed to the P&L.
My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, was no small part of this success. Since the market became technically and momentum driven, I have been confirming with him before sending out every Trade Alert. Together, out success rate is 100%.
What would you expect with a combined 85 years of market experience between the two of us? Followers are laughing all the way to the bank.
Don?t forget that Jim clocked an amazing 2013 of a staggering 374%. That is just for an eight-month year! Followers are laughing all the way to the bank.
The coming year promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere in 2014.
The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy. Please join me on the gravy train. You will never get a better chance than this to make money for your personal account.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011, 14.87% in 2012, and 67.45% in 2013.
The service includes my?Trade Alert Service?and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars.? Upgrade to?Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO?and you will also receive Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service.
To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? box on the right, and click on the blue ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.
In case you missed it, the second hand animal market has crashed. Forced to slash budgets by cash starved municipalities, the nation?s public zoos have been paring back their collections of living exhibits.
The Washington Zoo is trying to offload a 7,000 pound hippopotamus; while the San Francisco Zoo is short some tigers after one ate a visitor and had to be shot. The Portland Zoo was able to liquidate a portfolio of lemurs only because of the popularity of the recent DreamWorks? ?Madagascar 3? animated film.
When zoos are forced to economize, they downsize the big eaters first to save on feed costs; hence, the absence of elephants in San Francisco (Could this be a political gesture?). In fact, zoo staff were recently busted for illegally harvesting acacia on private property, a favorite food of giraffes, which grows wild here after its introduction a century ago.
The hardest to move? Baltimore has been trying to sell its snake collection for two years now. Talk about an illiquid market. Maybe they should try AIG. Snake derivatives anyone?
Pink Slips for Tony?