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Report From New Zealand

Newsletter

I am writing this report from the Duke of Marlborough Hotel and Pub in remote Russell, off the east coast of New Zealand?s North Island. One known as ?The Hell Hole of the Pacific?, in 1835, no less an authority than Charles Darwin claimed this 19th century whaling port was populated with ?the refuse of humanity.?

It has since been cleaned up, gentrified, and turned into a tourist mecca. It is much like Lahaina on Maui, Hawaii was in the early seventies, before the blighting high rise hotels and condos went up.

The Residents of Russell Were Most Welcoming

Others Had Different Opinions

The bar is packed to the gunwales with drunken and riotous rugby fans screaming their lungs out in support of their team in the world cup quarter finals. When Wales won, I bought a round of drinks for the house, but first had to arm wrestle a deeply tanned and craggy faced Welshman for the right to do so. I hope my credit card doesn?t get cancelled when the bill comes through for NZ$1,046.29. ?Thomas? is a Welsh name, isn?t it?

The trip started auspiciously at SFO when I found myself checking in behind a group of heavily tattooed, bulked up Maoris. First class was entirely occupied with older, but very large, white males all wearing an assortment of rugby juries. I arrived to find a country in the grip of rugby fever, every car and structure sporting the silver fern flags of the All Blacks home team, famous for their pregame ?hakka? war dance.

Perhaps a Distant Kiwi Cousin?

The rental company was out of cars, thanks to the games, but managed to come up with a battered old Toyota Camry with bald tires, breaks well past their prime, and leaking fluids from every orifice. In other words, it was a lot like me. I was OK with the left hand drive, having lived for 20 years in Japan and England.

But the stick shift certainly made things interesting. I can?t tell you how many times I turned on the windshield wipers instead of the right turn signal. I headed north from Auckland hoping to find better weather, picking up hitch hikers along the way to absorb the local lore.

My dad was here 70 years ago with the Marine Corps, training for the invasion of Guadalcanal, and always remarked how friendly approachable the women were. I found them friendly, yes, but not so approachable. Maybe this is because he was a combat ready 19 year old, and I am a combat ready, but aging 59 year old fart.

The countryside was incredibly lush and green, mountainous, and covered with massive ferns and kauri trees ensnarled by choking vines. Cleared grazing lands were dotted with sheep. The Maori are ever present, accounting for a substantial part of the rural population. Every town name seems to start with the letter ?W?, as in Whangaparaoa, Whangarei, and Waipu.

One of the most interesting conversations that I have had this year was with an aged Maori historian and Shaman at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds. When I told her I was part Cherokee, Sioux, and Delaware Indian, she opened right up and let loose for two hours. It turns out that tribal groups around the world are cooperating and coordinating legal attacks on establishment land ownership around the world. Everyone from the Maori?s to Hawaiians, Navajo?s, Australian, Aborigines, and Finish Laps are involved, and are getting legal aid from the United Nations.

The Maori?s have been especially successful, scoring a $170 million payoff from their government. The money went into community centers and education in the most Maori dominated parts of the country. It isn?t often that I get to discuss the global economic with a Neolithic tribal representative, and I relish the opportunity. I am always looking for the new view, and I?m sure there is much we can learn from 8,000 BC.

When I checked into the Pahia Beach Hotel and Spa, I did what I always do when I visit the Southern hemisphere. I flush the toilet, watching with satisfaction as the water disappears in a counterclockwise fashion, thanks to the Coriolis force. In the Northern hemisphere is goes down clockwise. If you don?t believe me, go try it. That night I found the Southern Cross, the only one of 88 constellations not visible at home.

We all thought New Zealand was toast when Great Britain cut the economic umbilical coat by joining the European Community in 1973, leaving the land of the kiwis out in the cold. A radical series of reforms saved the country in 1984. The financial system was deregulated and exchange rates were freed. Agricultural subsidies were cut, forcing farmers to become more efficient and globally price competitive.

Through a series of fortunate historical accidents, it then entered the sweet spot of the global economy. It was too small to have its own car industry, so it had nothing to lose when Japan took over that business. The same occurred with manufacturing, which China swallowed whole in the past decade. Today, services and tourism account for 70% of GDP. With a per capita GDP of $27,130, New Zealand ranks 33rd in the world, behind the US at $46.810 (7th), but well ahead of China at $7,544 (94th).

Kiwis Will Sell You Anything

Today, the World Bank ranks New Zealand as the most business friendly country on the planet. It has the lowest taxes in the developed world, and an unemployment rate at an enviable 6.6%. People are happy and the cities bustle. This makes all of the country?s assets long term buys, including the New Zealand dollar (BNZ), the stock market (ENZL) and a ten year government bond that yields a generous 4.65%. Use the big dips to take positions.

And Never Throw Anything Out

Well, I have to go now, or I?ll miss the last ferry back to Pahia on the mainland. Besides, that waitress across the room is starting to wink at me.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Picture-14.jpg 336 445 madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com2011-10-28 02:10:582011-10-28 02:10:58Report From New Zealand
madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com

The Bull Market in Mustangs

Newsletter

The Western US has found a new wrinkle in the housing collapse, where homeowners are desperately struggling to cut living costs to meet the next doubling of their adjustable rate mortgage payments on their underwater houses.

Raising horses can cost more than children, so Nevadans are turning them loose to join herds of wild mustangs, to dodge the $30,000/year it costs to board and care for these voracious animals. Local populations are exploding, eating local ranchers out of house and home, who depend on public grazing lands to feed commercial livestock.

Recently, the Bureau of Land Management held hearings on where to place 25,000 excess animals. Mustangs are the feral descendants of horses which escaped the conquistadores, and there are now thought to be 30,000 running wild, down from a 19th century peak of 2 million. The BLM has another 30,000 in pens, and is making 10,000/year available for adoption at $125/each.
The problem is that many adopt ?pets? who then flip them to Canadian slaughterhouses, which cater to the odd French taste for horseflesh. To see how this works, watch Clark Gable, Marilyn Monroe, and James Dean?s last film, The Misfits.

Madeleine Pickens, the wife of famed oil trader T. Boone Pickens, has offered to take the BLM?s entire herd and put them out to pasture at an undisclosed million acre location. If there is anyone who could have an undisclosed million acres, it is Boone. I have frequently run into majestic and beautiful mustang herds over the years while camping in the remote desert (no, I don?t go to Burning Man). Reminding me that there is still some ?wild? in the ?West?, I will miss them when they are gone.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/image03.jpg 440 615 madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com2011-10-27 03:20:002011-10-27 03:20:00The Bull Market in Mustangs
madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com

The New War on Hedge Fund Managers

Newsletter

Yang Yanming was slowly led from his cell by two burly uniformed guards in Beijing?s central prison to a waiting van in the courtyard guards, his hands cuffed behind him and his head bowed. Once in the vehicle, he was strapped to a gurney, hooked up to an IV, and given a highly concentrated injection of sodium pentobarbitol. Minutes later, a technician checked his pulse, and pronounced him dead. He then pulled out a scalpel, made a long vertical incision down Yang?s abdomen, and deftly harvested his organs. Placed in ice chests, they were rapidly sold off on China?s booming organ market.

The unfortunate Yang was a former stock trader convicted of embezzling $9.52 million from Galaxy Securities during 1997 to 2003. Once arrested, his trial, conviction, and execution were carried out in rapid fire succession in a matter of months. No hanging around death row for decades here, as is common practice in the US. Yanming never revealed where the money went, according to the Beijing Evenings News, possibly because he never committed the crime. We, and Yang?s family, will never know.

The move was part of a broader effort by regulators in Beijing to crack down on rampant corruption in the securities industry. Still, the more people they execute in the Middle Kingdom, about 10,000 this year, the more they remain the same. Great for the human organ business, but not so good for white collar crime prevention.

During the last three decades, a series of politically inspired ?get tough on crime? campaigns in the US, started by Ronald Reagan, has produced one of the biggest lock ups is human history. Inmates held by federal and state penal systems has soared from 500,000 to 3 million, and the numbers are growing my 200,000 a year. The American prison system has grown so large that it rivals the old ?Archipelago? in the Soviet Union during the 1930?s. The urban legend about the government building a vast secret complex of concentration camps is true.

One out of 100 Americans is behind bars, and one out of 35 is either in jail, or on probation. The cull has been particularly severe among ethnic minorities, with one out of three African Americans either in prison, on probation, or related to someone who is.

There has been a vast expansion in America of the definition of criminality. For example, tax evasion only became an imprisonable offence in 1984. A Supreme Court ruling extended the meaning of ?cocaine? to include crack swooped up tens of thousands. Widening the scope of old laws lowering the bar for conviction has also occurred in firearms ownership, hate crimes, the environment, pornography, the collection of Indian artifacts on federal land, and of course securities offenses. The closure of dozens of state hospitals around the country has also dumped large numbers of the mentally ill into the penal system, making prisons the new de facto mental hospitals.

There has also been a huge bull market in retribution that has contributed to the upsurge. Thanks to three strikes laws, an offender who stole a 95 cent cassette tape from a Seven Eleven in California got 30 years. The judge said his hands were tied. Teenaged children in Florida, not old enough to drive, are getting life sentences. Bernie Ebbers and Ken Lay might have gotten away scott free in the seventies, or at worst, caught five year sentences. Today 25 to life is standard for such offenses, an effective life sentence for a CEO or senior hedge fund manager. Madoff?s 150 year sentence seems pointless. It is not going to get people their money back.

Law enforcement experts, social workers, and even mathematicians all agree that this ?get tough? stance is having absolutely no impact on crime prevention. For a start, no one commits a crime with the intention, or even the remote expectation of getting caught. You can raise sentences to 1,000 years and it will still make no difference.

Many, like Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, who ran the Bear Stearns hedge funds, are not even aware that their activities might be perceived as illegal. The war on drugs has been a complete failure, with prices lower, narcotics more available, and more kids addicted than 30 years ago, despite DEA budgets running in the tens of billions. With state and federal prosecutors now on the warpath against hedge fund managers, bankers, and aggressive deal makers in real estate, the realm of the illegal is about to undergo yet another enormous expansion. But try telling that to a politician running for office in a borderline district. Crooks are not allowed to vote.

Demographics are the true origin of crime. The number of young males in the population peaked in the early seventies and has been on a downtrend ever since, along with crime rates. Crime is even immune to the economic cycle. You may not have noticed that crime went down last year, even though we were facing the worst economic and employment crisis in eight decades.

Some attribute the fall off in male population to the legalization of abortion by Roe v. Wade in 1973, which led to an immediate drop in newborns tossed into dumspsters, raised by the state, and living a life of crime. Malcolm Gladwell even has a pet theory that falling crime rates are due to the removal of lead from gasoline, also in 1973, which caused lead poisoning, mental illness, and a propensity for violence.

The big problem with the war on crime is that, while generating no tangible results, it is massively expensive. Some $80 billion will be spent incarcerating America?s state and federal prisoners this year, a figure that is bleeding cash starved state and municipal governments white. California spends more on prisons than on teachers. Governor Jerry Brown has tried to cut corners by packing prisons to 300% of their legal capacity, offloading inmates to unwilling counties, and by offering health care that a Federal judge has ruled ?cruel and unusual punishment.? Most prison gyms and libraries have been converted to dorms packed with three bed bunks end to end. In a desperate measure, the state is freed 20,000 nonviolent prisoners because it can?t afford to house or feed them.

If we adopted Chinese style crime and punishment, we?d save the $65,000 a year it costs to lock up miscreants like Bernie Madoff in high security facilities. Just execute the sons of bitches. The US could recover leadership in the human organ business, and we could convert unused prisons into schools, killing three birds with one stone.

There is another alternative to locking people up and throwing away the key. How about reforming the legal system? Take punishment out of the hands of politicians and bring them more in line with the offense. Perhaps 20% of the Golden State?s 270,000 inmates are serving long terms for possessing small baggies of pot that would earn them at worst a traffic ticket in most other Western countries, or nothing at all. It might also be worth investing in some education for inmates to reduce the appalling rate of recidivism from the current 70%. Prisons officials now give released inmates $25, dump them on a street corner in a crummy neighborhood, and tell them ?See you when you come back.? Shorter prison sentences and longer probation might be another economical answer.

This would all require some brave political leadership around an unpopular issue. Don?t hold your breath. In the meantime, check out this cool link to the used kidney market. The next kidney up for sale may be yours.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Screen-shot-2011-10-27-at-4.36.55-PM.jpg 334 438 madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com2011-10-25 05:00:472019-03-19 12:00:37The New War on Hedge Fund Managers
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 24, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“The brave may not live forever, but the cautious do not live at all,” said my friend, Sir Richard Branson on the successful inaugural flight of his spaceship.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/richard-branson.png 452 452 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader0202-03-24 10:00:432022-03-24 16:54:39March 24, 2022 - Quote of the Day
MHFTR

April 27, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"Freedom of the press is only true if you own a press," said A.J. Liebling, a famed journalist for the New Yorker.

 

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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