Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 31, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(APPLE OUTSHINES THE REST)
(AAPL)
I'll give credit when credit is due.
Apple CEO Tim Cook pulled off a quarter to remember.
And yes, I've been hypercritical of his lack of innovation, but I can't question the way he’s insulated the company from being exposed to softness in mainland China.
Analysts expected $88 billion in revenue and Apple easily surpassed this number by posting $91 billion.
When you look under the surface, there are usually some chinks in the armor.
But this time around Apple's quarter was practically flawless albeit with some frosty guidance.
It's no secret that the quality of a Chinese smartphone has picked up and now rivals some of Apple's best products.
However, Apple turned a weakness into a strength and sales of iPhones was one of the highlights of an outstanding quarter.
In fact, it was the iPhone 11 that carried the load this time.
In total, iPhone Revenue rose 8% to almost $56 billion and they shipped 72.9 million units.
The outperformance doesn't just end there.
Wearables have become a meaningful revenue driver in itself.
Specifically, ear buds and the Apple watch have captivated Apple customers who are scooping up these products in droves.
In the prior quarter, 75% of people who bought the Apple watch were first time buyers.
This added up to wearables clocking in $7.3 billion in revenue this past quarter.
Apple’s outperformance dovetails nicely with my overarching theme of the FANG group plus Microsoft separating themselves from the other tech companies in 2020.
The network effect that these companies possess is unrivaled and the longer they stay in business, the stronger these effects seep in.
If there was a negative part of the quarter, Tim Cook failed to delve into the new Apple streaming product and avoided giving too much detail.
Fortunately, Apple has not bet the ranch on streaming and have stuck to what they know best.
Ultimately, Cook struck a lukewarm tone, especially with the spread of China’s coronavirus threatening to shut down production operations for several manufacturers.
The company has restricted employee travel and shut one store due to the outbreak.
Looking forward, management said “there will definitely be an impact on China in terms of consumption.”
Apple is slated to release its first 5G phone later this year which has been the catalyst for the price appreciation in shares.
Apple continues to be a multiprong revenue machine and any dip should be bought.
This is the type of company that should be part of any multi-asset portfolio.
“I love museums but I don't want to live in one.” – Said CEO of Apple Tim Cook
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
January 30, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO EXECUTE A MAD HEDGE TRADE ALERT)
"In the US you, had ten bad years in a row (during the Great Depression) and it still turned out to be a pretty good century," said Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs.
DOCU has made a nice run since since the position was initiated a week ago and it is now a bit overbought in the short term.
I suggest you close the position into the strength.
Here is how you close the position:
Sell to Close February 21st - $75.00 call @ $4.10
Buy to Close February 21st - $80.00 call @ $1.35
Net credit will be $2.75 per spread. The position was initiated with a debit of $1.75 per spread, so the cash profit will be $500 in total if you traded the suggested 5 lot.
The return works out to 71% for a week.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 29, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE NEW NORMAL FOR THE INTERNET)
Russia can now “unplug” from the internet, is this a sign of things to come?
Since 2010, the internet has become the de-facto global cock pit.
A breaking up of the internet is heavily negative for American tech companies who vie for overseas revenue.
The more unified the internet is, the easier and more cost effective it is to scale up a business and sell software and hardware to the customer.
The advent of the Russian intranet could lay the groundwork for other sovereign nations to build their own version of an intranet.
This could lock out foreign companies from doing business or only allow them access if they play by unfair rules.
There is also the dual objective of keeping close tabs on local dissidents and controlling the media which countries like Iran have found convenient and mightily effective.
The internet is not a simple place anymore.
Cross border digital transactions and cooperation of it is diminishing at a rapid pace.
Take for instance Russia’s third-largest internet company Rambler which sued Amazon-owned Twitch platform for 180 billion rubles ($2.87 billion) over illegal streams of soccer matches from the English Premier League.
Russia is the third-largest user of Twitch worldwide which could eventually lead to a ban of the service.
Where does this eventually stop?
Next on the chopping block could be Google search and then YouTube.
Many of these free services make money by serving up ads and revenue would be seriously hit if a wide swath of usership are taken offline.
The announcement merely noted that Russia successfully tested a country-wide alternative to the global internet, but the devil is usually in the details.
Either way, pulling out the rug from underneath Russian netizens is a serious option for the Kremlin.
The results will now head to the higher ups to conclude when and how the new Russian intranet will be implemented.
There are still loose ends that Russia needs to sort out like integrating a separate DNS system.
A new system connecting the physical infrastructure directly to the rest, which at present must do so through international connections. And that’s just to create the basic possibility of a working Russian intranet.
Russia has taken comfort in knowing that China has its own version of the internet aptly named the Great Firewall, but China has not cut off access to abroad merely focusing on pressure points and content not supportive of its government.
Authoritarian countries want to rule with an iron fist, and this will help them do so, the added bonus is stonewalling American capitalism inside their border in digital form.
How would a domestic internet work?
By bottlenecking the points at which Russia's version of the net connects to its global counterpart.
Domestic ISPs [internet service providers] and telcos would need to route the internet only within the digital border of Russia.
This would require close partnership with domestic ISPs which would be easy to facilitate since state-owned firms have oversized clout inside of Russia.
The more networks and connections a country has, the more difficult it is to control access.
Countries receive foreign web services via undersea cables or "nodes" - connection points at which data is transmitted to and from other countries' communication networks.
These would need to be blocked too.
Then Russia would need to create something new from scratch.
In Iran, the National Information Network allows access to web services while policing any digital content and is operated by the state-owned Telecommunication Company of Iran.
A “walled garden” would nullify the usage of virtual private networks (VPNs).
At this point, netizens can still tap outside internet sources by connecting to different servers abroad through VPNs.
Russia already has an army of tech talent it can employ through heavyweights Yandex and Mail.Ru.
The handful of entrenched behemoths would benefit greatly from Russia shutting off itself to the outside world.
Russia has even banned the sale of smartphones that do not have Russian software pre-installed and this is just the next step.
The Russian government has had their hand in online censorship before, such as its failure to block Russians from accessing encrypted messaging app Telegram.
The state-owned Tass news agency reported the tests had assessed the vulnerability of internet-of-things (IoT) devices as we step into the era of 5G.
The cybersecurity element of this cannot be diminished, and what this tells us is that your smartphone and smart home devices aren’t safe at all.
Even though American tech companies won’t be widely affected in 2020, foreign revenue will start deteriorating in piecemeal fashion.
This will likely turn into a whack-a-mole problem with American companies hoping to plug the gaps but helpless if wide audience purges ruins numerous digital audiences.
There is a reason why YouTube isn’t successful in China and there is a reason why Mail.Ru isn’t the main internet provider in the U.S.
