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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2020 - MDT Alert (KEX)

MDT Alert

Today, I would like to make a suggestion on a stock that I believe should continue to get a bounce and follow through to the upside.

The stock is Kirby Corp.(KEX).

I would like to use the same structure as the trade we just closed
out on NTAP.

That is the unequal straddle.

KEX does not report until April 30th, so there is no scheduled earnings event in the near future.

KEX is trading around $75 as I write this.

The suggestion will be an unequal straddle with a bullish bias.

The idea will be buy 2 calls for every 1 put.

Buy to Open (2) March 20th - $75.00 calls @ $2.60. The 2 calls will cost $5.20.

Buy to Open (1) March 20th - $75.00 put @ $3.10

The total debit will be $8.30 per position.

Based on the nominal portfolio, limit the trade to a 2 lot or a total of $1,660. This is a 1.6% risk based on the nominal portfolio.

The end result if you trade the suggested position size is that you will own (4) March 20th - $75 calls and (2) March 20th - $75 puts.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-05 11:40:022020-02-05 11:53:49February 5, 2020 - MDT Alert (KEX)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 5, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO TRADE THE CORONAVIRUS)
(APPL), (MSFT), (TSLA), (MU), (WDC), (ZM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-05 10:04:592020-02-05 09:55:30February 5, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Trade the Coronavirus

Tech Letter

Like a powerful mule, I believe the American tech sector will muscle through the shock of the China coronavirus.

The tech sector will do what it does best, take the lead and put the entire American economy on its back and carry it through when doubts of decelerating global growth are asked of it.

I quantify this as an opportunity for the American tech sector.

Let’s look at some of the short-term contagion American tech companies are absorbing, as well as some opportunities in tech delivered by this sad pandemic.

Apple (AAPL) has made the decision to shutter all Apple stores in mainland China.

Their corporate offices have also gone into sleep mode and that means 10,000 people will need to make do with work stoppages which also include the component makers that supply Apple.

The stoppage is until February 9th, but only if the coronavirus has been effectively thwarted.

The Chinese populace isn’t willing to go out on the street and have barricaded themselves inside their apartments to avoid catching the virus.

Quarantining large areas is an unprecedented move from the Chinese communist party highlighting the poor handling of the situation in the early stages.

China is a critical revenue driver for Apple constituting 15% of revenue.

The delay in manufacturing will result in 3% of iPhone unit shipments being pushed out from March to June.

However, if the lockdown spills into late February or March, then there will be a major hit to the Chinese consumer which could muddy Apple’s bottom line.

Apple’s supply chain could get up-and-running if the shutdown lasts a few weeks but if we are talking months then project dates could get put on the permanent back burner.

Apple is arguably the most prominent American tech company to be affected deeply by the coronavirus but there are others.

The Chinese communist party has put the operation of the new Shanghai Tesla (TSLA) factory on ice which will delay the company’s production of the Model 3 there.

The ramp-up of the Model 3 production will be delayed by a week and a half and the shutdown may “slightly” impact the company’s profitability in the first quarter of 2020, said Tesla’s finance chief Zach Kirkhorn.

As of now Tesla has estimated a 10-day delay to the Shanghai-built Model 3s due to a government-required factory shutdown and the facility will remain locked until February 9th.

Tesla have been churning out cars at its Shanghai factory only since the end of 2019.

The deliveries are an emerging revenue driver as Tesla hopes to gain a foothold in China, the world’s largest market for electric vehicles.

Fortunately, Shanghai-produced Teslas only make up a tiny part of Tesla’s overall revenue, meaning there will be minimal impact to the financials.

The outbreak could have a positive effect for some domestic semiconductor companies.

The chaos resulting from the virus will likely upset operations at Wuhan-based Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. and Wuhan Xinxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., who have been stealing market share from their American competitors.

Yangtze Memory Technologies is China’s leading NAND flash memory producer.

NAND chips are the flash memory chips used in USB drives and smaller devices such as digital cameras as opposed to DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, the type of memory commonly used in PCs and servers.

Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WFC) could swoop in to meet the extra demand.

Another company that could seize a great opportunity because of the coronavirus is Zoom Video Communications (ZM).

The CEO of Zoom Video said, “If you cannot travel ... you need to have a very reliable secure tool like Zoom” and product usage “is very, very high since the last of the month, last week. Almost every day - that’s a record usage.”

Since Chinese tech workers are barricading themselves indoors, Zoom has been the tool of choice to collaborate with coworkers who are in the same situation.

Not that the video conferencing software company needed help, I have recommended this company as a solid buy and hold since the stock dipped to $62.

This new boost will pour gas on the flames and the stock price reacted in lockstep by rocketing 15% in just one trading day.

When the likes of Alphabet’s Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, and Ford Motor are ordered to work from home, videoconferencing, online meetings, chat and mobile collaboration services shoot through the roof.

Video conferencing will become a $43 billion total addressable market in the coming years, and I believe Zoom is easily a $150 stock.

In short, the coronavirus will hurt some tech companies short-term, benefits others, and have no effect on tech firms with negligible China exposure.

Facebook is a stock that I recently executed a call spread on, and they are blocked from operating in the mainland and will feel no difference from this virus outbreak.

Looking even deeper into the matter, the short-term hit to revenues will only be temporary unless this virus wipes out most of China.

The most likely scenario is that less than 1,000 people will eventually die from this and 99.9% of that will be deaths in mainland China.

Investors should look at buying on any substantial dip – the tech narrative is still unbroken.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/coronavirus.png 377 899 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-05 10:02:572020-05-11 13:12:07How to Trade the Coronavirus
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn't matter to me. Going to bed at night saying we've done something wonderful, that's what matters to me.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/steve-jobs.png 254 277 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-05 10:00:552020-02-05 09:54:34February 5, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Douglas Davenport

February 5, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2020-02-05 09:20:482020-02-05 09:23:54February 5, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 5, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(MSFT), (TLT), (BA), (GOOGL), (SPY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-05 04:04:522020-02-05 10:40:18February 5, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 4, 2020 - MDT Alert (NTAP)

MDT Alert

Because NTAP does report next week and the stock had the bounce that I expected, I am going to suggest you take the profit on the trade.

I don't want to run the risk of it pulling back and we can always put the trade back on if it does.

Sell to Close (2) February 14th - $54.50 calls @ $3.10. The 2 calls will net $6.20

Sell to Close (1) February 14th - $54.50 put @ $1.38. The put will net $1.38.

If you traded the suggested 2 lot allocation, the total gross will be about $1,516.

With a cost of $1,240, the trade will net $276 for one day.

The return for that day will be 22%.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-04 13:40:522020-02-04 13:40:52February 4, 2020 - MDT Alert (NTAP)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 4, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 4, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ABBVIE’S BIG CORONA VIRUS PLAY)
(ABBV), (RHHBY), (GILD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-04 09:36:102020-02-04 09:52:53February 4, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

AbbVie’s Big Coronavirus Play

Biotech Letter

Two major issues are in the root of the panic caused by every new infectious disease.

The first is because of the uncontrollable spread of the virus, affecting thousands of people in a short span of time. This consequently pushes the public to question the capacity of their government to provide the proper healthcare to every patient, causing further confusion, alarm, and eventually, economic upheaval.

The second is the overpowering uncertainty that looms over not only the people directly affected by the disease but also the rest of the world as we feel like sitting ducks, wondering who the virus will infect next.

Both effects have become apparent with the news of a new coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, which originated in Wuhan, China.

The public’s reaction has come so close to mass hysteria, especially since the virus has already taken over 400 lives and infected more than 20,000 people worldwide.

The speed by which the disease is spreading is also alarming. The 2019-nCoV getting transmitted from one person to another almost as fast as the highly transmissible flu, which was not the case for its slower-moving cousins Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

In response to this alarming situation, the Chinese government along with the medical community has turned to unconventional means to find a cure — and giant biotechnology company AbbVie (ABBV) is at the forefront of these efforts today.

One measure taken by the health experts is using AbbVie’s off-label HIV drug, called Kaletra (aka Aluvia), to treat 2019-nCoV patients.

Kaletra has two components valuable in battling the coronavirus: lopinavir and ritonavir. Both have the capacity to block HIV viral replication.

The twice-a-day Kaletra regimen comprises taking the HIV drug and undergoing infusions of interferon, a protein that triggers the immune system.

Although the AbbVie drug has yet to be officially declared as an approved cure for the 2019-nCoV, more and more health experts in China are already using it.

The belief on this treatment’s efficacy stemmed from the statement of the head at Peking University First Hospital, who shared that he contracted 2019-nCoV but cured himself by taking Kaletra.

This Chinese doctor is currently part of the national team of experts sent by the Chinese government to tend to those in Wuhan. Aside from him, Shanghai authorities disclosed that they have already adopted the HIV treatment in handling their own patients.

However, this isn’t the first time that Kaletra was deployed as a treatment against a coronavirus.

In 2004, Kaletra was used to cure the patients of SARS-CoV. This is promising since SARS, which is also caused by a coronavirus, bears a close resemblance to the 2019-nCoV. Experts tested the drug to help treat MERS patients as well.

A roadblock for the Kaletra cure is the scarcity of the drug in China.

A lot of health professionals disclosed that they have been struggling to get their hands on the AbbVie off-patent product. In response, AbbVie donated approximately $1.5 million worth of Kaletra to help contain the 2019-nCoV.

Other biotechnology behemoths have followed AbbVie’s lead of donating funds to help with the research in China. The list includes Roche Holding (RHHBY) and Gilead Sciences (GILD).

Meanwhile, this piece of promising news is not lost in the market. In fact, AbbVie shares pushed higher the moment Kaletra’s efficacy against the 2019-nCoV was revealed.

Apart from that, this development has reminded investors of AbbVie’s promising growth lately.

Unfortunately, most of the company’s growth came from acquisitions — a path where AbbVie has an abysmal track record. More often than not, investors fear that the company overpays in deals that fail to reap the promised rewards.

Case in point: AbbVie’s hefty $63 billion acquisition of Botox maker Allergan, which is due to be finalized early 2020.

In moving to acquire a company that only has one consistent blockbuster product, experts believe that AbbVie might have pulled the trigger too soon without considering other options.

While this high-profile agreement has been such a hot topic in the investing community, I think it’s a good move towards diversifying AbbVie’s sales and injecting additional growth.

Remember, AbbVie is in desperate need for a new outlet in light of the dwindling Humira sales. Adding a high-selling and established industry leader like Botox to the mix would make AbbVie more diversified than ever, making it safer.

More importantly, AbbVie ensured that the $63 billion acquisition doesn’t run the company to the ground — and its precautionary measures showed.

The company has been consistent in its net income, reporting over $5 billion annually in the past three years. It also raked in $12.8 billion in free cash flow in 2018, proving that AbbVie is well-positioned to acquire more companies and be more creative in looking for growth targets.

Hence, I view this biotechnology stock as an underrated buy that would appeal to bargain hunters willing to hang onto it for the years to come.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-04 09:34:422020-02-04 09:53:53AbbVie’s Big Coronavirus Play
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 4, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-04 09:29:052020-02-04 09:29:05February 4, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
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