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DougD

Trade Alert - (SPY) May 20, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-20 12:31:182016-05-20 12:31:18Trade Alert - (SPY) May 20, 2016
DougD

May 20, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-20 09:17:002016-05-20 09:17:00May 20, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

May 20, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 20, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAY 25 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(THE FLIP FLOPPING FED STRIKES AGAIN!),
(SPY), (GLD), (ABX), (GDX), (XLU), (XLF),
(PRESIDENT HILLARY?S COMING TAX HIT)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU)
Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-20 01:09:552016-05-20 01:09:55May 20, 2016
DougD

The Flip Flopping Fed Strikes Again!

Diary, Newsletter

Boy, the Federal Reserve must really hate traders.

Once again, a flip flopping Fed has reversed its message to the market, suggesting that interest rates will rise as soon as its June 17 meeting.

The news came out with the release of its April Open Committee Meeting minutes. It?s clear that as soon as financial markets stopped crashing, a rate rise was back on the table.

The revelation pulled the rug out from traders who were expecting no move on interest rates until December at the earliest.

Markets were stunned senseless by the surprise for a few minutes. Then, the lower interest plays, like gold (GLD) and utilities (XLU) started to crater, while rising rate plays, such as the banks (XLF), had a banner day.

This was a big problem, as most hedge funds had overweight positions in the yellow metal, one of the top performing assets of 2016. Those long gold stocks (GDX), (ABX) particularly took it in the shorts.

Fortunately, I made more than ample profits on my short positions in the S&P 500 (SPY), the Russell 2000, and the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS) to offset any losses in the barbarous relic.

That is why the word ?Hedge? is in the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. I?m sorry, but I?m spoiled. I like to make money ALL the time!

Yesterday?s developments still left our May performance at an envious 10.62%. The 2016 year-to-date number stands at 11.83%. Our five-year gain stands at 204.08%.

These are numbers any manager would kill for in this tempestuous trading year. The harder I work, the luckier I get.

The great irony here is that I don?t believe the Fed will raise rates in June. The numbers from the economy don?t justify it. A US Q1 GDP growth rate of a piddling 0.5% is nothing to write home about.

And even the Fed won?t believe in a rate rise if the UK leaves the European Community, a distinct possibility on June 23.

That means stocks will continue to discount a rate rise for another month, and then not get it. That translates into selling every rally in stocks until then and then covering your shorts mid month.

The 200-day moving average beckons at $199.68, then the February 11 low at $181.20.

The problem is that central banks have been known to make mistakes, especially ours.

SPYXLUGLDXLF
Janet Yellen

Will She, or Won?t She?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Janet-Yellen.jpg 300 534 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-20 01:07:282016-05-20 01:07:28The Flip Flopping Fed Strikes Again!
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

President Hillary?s Coming Tax Hit

Diary, Newsletter

At long last, Hillary Clinton has started to make public key planks of her post election policies, which may become law if she is successful in her 2016 presidential bid.

Until now, her run for the Democratic nomination has largely been about what she had for breakfast, her hairstyle, how nice her mom was, or how tough her dad was.

I have known Hillary Clinton for more than 20 years, since not long after she moved into the White House. It is no secret what she stands for, and none of her proposed policies should come as a revelation to anyone.

If you are a member of the ?1%? you are in for some bad news. You are target number uno.

If you own a home, work for a large company, save for your retirement, earn money from capital gains, and toss in a check when they pass the dish around at church every Sunday, you are the biggest beneficiary of the current tax system, by miles.

Therefore, you are about to take a big hit.

I have been compiling data for this piece for months, piecing together conversations with her staff and policy wonks, as well as pulling from her public speeches.

The tax policies will do nothing less than remake the United States of America over the coming decade, beyond all recognition.

The implications for your trading and investment portfolio are huge. I have outlined a summary of coming tax changes below, along with her (not my) rationale behind them.

1) Energy

Moving capital out of carbon based energy sources and into alternative ones will be a big priority for the new President Clinton. The elimination of century old tax breaks for the oil industry will be used to finance a massive expansion into alternative energy, primarily solar.

Her big goal is the oil depletion allowance, long despised by environmentalists, which diverts about $60 billion a year from the US Treasury onto the bottom lines of oil companies.

This measure, pushed through by a Texas senator during the Great Depression, permits energy investors to write off all capital expenses during the first year, while realizing the income over the full life of a well, usually 20-30 years.

After all, why should we be subsidizing more production during a burgeoning oil glut?

Call it a carbon tax by another name.

Hillary? ultimate goal is to increase America?s share of alternative energy production from the present 7% to 33% by 2030. Add in nuclear power, and that raises non-carbon energy to 50% of the US total. She has specifically mentioned installing 500 million solar panels in a decade.

Gee, do you know anyone who has been pounding the table about solar stocks, like Solar City (SCTY) and First Solar (FSLR)?

2) Capital Gains

Hillary?s proposal to raise capital gains rates, effectively taxing all short term gains as regular income will have major implications for all traders and investors alike.

Profits realized on investments held for more than 365 days are currently taxed at a 20% rate for those couples earning over $466,951. This special treatment of investment profits also dates back to the 1930?s. President Carter lowered it to 20%, then George W. Bush took it down to 15%..

Clinton wants to treat short-term gains as ordinary income, thus boosting the tax rate to 43.4%. She also wants to extend the minimum holding period to qualify for long-term gains from one year to two.

Her attack on what she calls ?quarteritis?, the excessive focus by corporate America on short-term results at the expense of long term goals, is laudable.

It could also deal a deathblow to high frequency traders, never popular people, whose holding period of securities rarely extends beyond a nanosecond.

These measures are expected to raise $36 billion a year in new revenues for the federal government.

3) Carried Interest

Instituted by President Carter during the late 1970?s to encourage venture capital investment, the use of the carried interest loophole has grown far beyond its original intention.

It essentially enables hedge fund and private equity managers to convert high tax ordinary income into long-term capital gains, thus creating the famed 15% maximum tax rate for the wealthy.

Carried interest does not have a big impact on federal revenues. Its elimination will raise only about $25 billion. It is more of a ?fairness? issue, targeting the 1%, and leveling the playing field for the middle class.

If you don?t believe that ?fairness? is such a big deal, remember that the American Revolution was ignited over exactly this kind of matter, the preferential treatment of British importers over US ones.

4) Home Mortgage Deduction

Should renters be subsidizing homeowners? Kiss that home mortgage interest deduction goodbye for high-end properties. Ditto for the real estate market as a whole.

Hillary wants to limit home mortgage interest deductibility to loans of only $500,000, half of the present $1 million.

This will have the effect of taxing the coasts, east and west, where the expensive homes are, to the benefit of cheaper housing in the Midwest. That great ocean view is about to get more expensive.
?
Ironically, it will funnel cash from blue states to red states. Is Clinton cutting off her nose to spite her face?

Still, it is another ?fairness? issue. It is also a biggie. The move would raise $100 billion in new federal revenues.

5) Ending the Tax Deductibility of Charitable Contributions

Should those who don?t go to church subsidize those who do? Should the public be financing extremist, toxic political campaigns? That?s what ending the tax deductibility of charitable contributions would prevent.

In fact, some 90% of this money currently goes to the fine arts patronized by the well off. Think of this as another tax the rich measure. Universities, churches, and political fund raising will go begging.

But this is another elephant, picking op a further $100 million a year for the feds.

6) Ending 401k Contributions

Should those without savings subsidize those salting away money for retirement? This is the argument that will be made to end tax deductibility of 401k contributions.

Originally engineered by the Reagan administration as a get rich quick scheme for Wall Street, it has proved wildly successful.

Such a measure would boost government revenues by $55 billion a year, and would act as another income leveler for the middle class.

However, don?t expect this to get much traction with the public. A trial balloon was sent up for this a few years ago, and the hue and cry were deafening.

7) Phase Out the Stepped Up Cost Basis

Another Reagan measure, the stepped up cost basis allows surviving spouses to mark their homes to market and use that as their new cost basis, this avoiding punitive capital gains taxes.

It was enacted because high inflation during the seventies and eighties was raising home values so fast that widows and widowers had to sell their homes when bereaved because they couldn?t afford the estate taxes.

I must admit that I cashed in on this when my own spouse passed away, effectively earning millions from the great California property bubble tax free.

The measure will create some $40 billion in new government income. She doesn?t need that McMansion without you anyway.

8) Tax Dividend Income as Regular Income

Guess who this one targets? Approximately 80% of all stocks are owned by Republicans. Treating dividends as ordinary income would raise the rate from 20% to 43.4% for high-income earners.

If you are still breathing, you can now pick yourself up off the floor so I can add a few conditions and provisos.

It will be politically impossible for President Clinton to get any of these changes through a divided congress.

While recapturing th
e Senate is a slam-dunk in 2016 thanks to a friendly calendar, Democratic control of the House is an open issue, thanks to extensive gerrymandering. It really all depends on how much air time Donald Trump gets.

Maybe he should host ?Wheel of Fortune? to boost his numbers?

A divided congress means that only one of these measures might get through as a quid pro quo for Republicans to get one of their favorite tax breaks through.

The most likely candidate would be to allow corporations to bring their $2 trillion stash of foreign profits home tax-free.

I want to end on an upbeat note so you don?t run away and jump off the nearest bridge.

None of these hikes would be necessary if the economy grew at a 4% real rate instead of the present 2-2.5%.

This is exactingly what I have been predicting in my many research pieces, thanks to a massive demographic tailwind that begins during the 2020?s (click here for Get Ready for the Coming Golden Age).

Think goodbye 80 million retiring baby boomers who are a drag on the economy, hello 85 million free spending millennials.

That would balance the federal budget very quickly and thus eliminate the need for any tax increases whatsoever.

A new administration with no tax hikes! That would be one popular president!

Taxing Capital Gains

Hillary Clinton

You Play, You Pay

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Hillary-Clinton-e1438113280262.jpg 251 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-20 01:06:152016-05-20 01:06:15President Hillary?s Coming Tax Hit
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (GLD) May 19, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-19 10:01:532016-05-19 10:01:53Trade Alert - (GLD) May 19, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (ABX) May 19, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-19 09:47:332016-05-19 09:47:33Trade Alert - (ABX) May 19, 2016
DougD

May 19, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-19 09:13:412016-05-19 09:13:41May 19, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

May 19, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 19, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(10 REASONS WHY STOCKS ARE ABOUT TO ROLL OVER),
(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (VIX),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(WELCOME TO THE DEFLATIONARY CENTURY),
(TLT), (TBT)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-19 01:09:182016-05-19 01:09:18May 19, 2016
DougD

10 Reasons Why Stocks Are About to Roll Over

Diary, Newsletter

I hate to be a Debbie Downer here, but the writing on the wall couldn?t be more clear.

The Fed minutes, released at 2:00 PM this afternoon, greatly increased the probability of a Fed rate rise in June. That set the cat among the pigeons.

Higher interest rates are terrible news for stocks, except the long-suffering financials.

It focused a great, bright spotlight on the many reasons shares should go down, including:

1) Talk of an interest rate hike from my former Berkeley economics professor, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, is ramping up. If they pull the trigger, you can chop 10% off of the stock market in a week. Yes, central banks DO make mistakes.

2) Corporate earnings are falling. Look no further than the disaster that are retail stocks (M), (TGT), (JCP).

3) At 19 times 2016 earnings, stocks are at decade highs in terms of valuations. Fear of heights anyone. Don the oxygen masks!

4) The calendar is hugely negative. No one ever makes fast money investing in May. Buy stocks today, and you may not break even until next year. Try explaining that one to your boss, your investors, and your next executive outplacement professional.

5) A monster rally in the bond market is predicting an imminent ?RISK OFF? move in global risk assets. Try whistling past the graveyard.

6) So is the near straight line rally in gold stocks (ABX), (GDX), (GLD).

7) Only a rare coincidence of global supply disruptions, like in Canada, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela, has gotten oil up this high. When production comes back on stream, watch Texas tea roll over to test new lows, taking stocks with it.

8) If England leaves the European Community after its June 23 ?Brexit? referendum, you can kiss the global economy goodbye, including ours. Last time I checked, the polls were 43% to 42% in favor of staying, far too close for comfort. Book that European vacation now before the continent implodes.

9) Turn on the TV or open your Twitter account and you get a hand grenade thrown at you from a presidential candidate. Stocks would rather hide out in a bomb proof bunker.

10) According to my vintage Rolex wristwatch, this bull market is seven years, two months, nine days, four hours, three minutes and 47 seconds old. Sounds pretty geriatric to me.

SPYQQQIWM$VIXjohn

Watch Out! They Bite!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/john.jpg 386 272 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-19 01:08:412016-05-19 01:08:4110 Reasons Why Stocks Are About to Roll Over
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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