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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 26, 2025

Jacque's Post

 

(THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF THE MARKET)

 

February 26, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

Tesla stock is plunging.

Why?

Worldwide criticism for his role in the U.S. DOGE service cancelling contracts and slashing staff in the U.S. government.  And the way he has gone about this - slash and burn approach – has raised the ire of the population.   Furthermore, his activity on X has been disturbing to say the least.  Championing polarizing far-right world figures has raised some eyebrows, and that’s putting it mildly.

Leading up to Germany’s election last Sunday, Musk magnified the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party on X, post about the party and its leader more than 70 times to his 218 million followers.

Musk has also published opinion columns praising the party, and has spoken at party rallies, where he reportedly told Germans to move beyond “past guilt” over Nazi history.

The country’s conservative Christian Democrats won Sunday’s election.

But are Musk’s ideas and actions the only reason for Tesla’s slide?

We can actually point to a confluence of factors.  There is rising competition in the electric vehicle market, and we are also seeing a slowdown in the rate at which electric vehicle sales are rising. 

Chinese automaker SAIC Motor sold 22, 994 cars last month in the E.U., U.K, and EFTA, compared with Tesla’s 9,945. 

 

 

Will the decline in Tesla be permanent?  It is too early to tell, but Musk’s political involvement and his blatant association with the far right is unlikely to be considered a positive for Tesla.

Has Musk damaged the Tesla brand?

Maybe. 

Some of his Tesla employees and investors have indicated that the company would be better off if Musk resigned.

David Bailey, a business economics professor at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, said Musk is now seen by some consumers as “toxic.”

 

 

 

Palantir has collapsed after a huge rally.

Palantir had a very strong rally in 2024 that stretched in early February 2025.  But after that momentous climb, the stock has crashed down to earth, losing 30% in less than two weeks.

At its peak on February 18, Palantir shares had surged 65% in 2025 alone, with a 23% single-day jump following the company’s blockbuster earnings report on February 3.  However, a confluence of events changed the mood.  News that the company’s chief executive sold $1 billion worth of stock and warnings about cutbacks in government spending (on which the firm heavily relies), sent shares sharply lower.

After its big decline the stock is trading in fairly valued territory, however it would be advisable to tread with caution around Palantir, as the stock could continue to be subject to wide swings as investors continue to assess the market for Palantir’s analytical software products.

Palantir may find a floor around $73 before its volatility retreats.

 

 

QI CORNER

 

 

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-26 12:00:012025-02-26 12:56:01February 26, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 26, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 26, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY TRADERS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-26 09:04:332025-02-26 11:07:21February 26, 2025
MHFTR

The League of Extraordinary Traders

Diary, Newsletter

I never cease to be impressed with the readers of this newsletter.

I was reminded of this once again in Salt Lake City, Utah a few weeks ago.

Readers seem to fall into three categories.

1) Entrepreneurs whose businesses become so successful that they are throwing off plenty of excess cash to invest. This led them to an online search (they are also technically very savvy) that brought them to my Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

One of my guests runs a manufacturing business that builds drones. In five years, his one-time hobby grew from gross revenues from $400,000 a year to $40 million, and with big military contracts coming he says the best has yet to come.

Ten years ago, the Federal Aviation Administration predicted that there would be 1,500 drones in the air by 2020. Today, there are millions.

Interestingly, he says he is now besieged by constant foreign takeover offers. These are from European and Asian firms that have gone ex-growth and are desperately searching for new profit streams at any cost. So far, he has rebuffed all comers. More than a few friends have sold their companies to Germans lately.

2) Financial advisors who have been following my long-term macro and trading advice and who have also become very successful. Rampant cutting in their world means dumping expensive research analysts. Winning financial advisors always have new clients and cash coming which they need to know how to invest. All of my clients seem to have this problem.

3) Young men and women in their twenties and thirties who dropped out of the mainstream economy and taught themselves to become professional full-time traders. They keep begging me to go back into Bitcoin research, which I abandoned three years ago as too theft-prone.

Perhaps several hundred earn a full-time living just off of my own Trade Alerts alone. This business took a quantum leap with my introduction of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.

My first-hand observation of the current inflation rate is that it is taking off again, and it is not just eggs at $10 a dozen….if you can find them.

Airplanes going anywhere are all full and ticket prices are soaring, while service is shrinking. The airports are packed. The cost of overnight parking in San Francisco has risen by 100% to $50 a day. The free electric charging stations, of which there are now over 50, are always full.

Mt favorite Pendleton store in Monterey, CA no longer has sales. It’s full price for everything all the time now. People have plenty of money to spend.

Stores are stocking more expensive, higher margin profits, and offering imaginative displays.

Placing your goods on top of worn-out industrial heavy machines is a popular new marketing approach. I spend more time analyzing the machines than the goods for sale.

The irony is rich.

Restaurants are more expensive too, always are full, and are also making the grab for higher margins. They now offer food that is gluten-free, locally grown, and “artisanal.” There are only five items on the menu at twice the prices and many restaurants no longer open for lunch.

When I ordered a steak, I was informed that it was hormone and preservative-free. I asked if I could have one WITH hormones and preservatives, as they put hair on my chest and preserve me as well.

No wonder everyone thinks I’m Mad.

Yet there is evidence too of the failed America, the people who got left behind. At one stoplight, I encountered a family of four holding a big sign in the freezing weather “We need money.”

They had recently been evicted from their home. All had serious health problems and were morbidly obese. They looked legit. Maybe it was a healthcare-induced bankruptcy?

I asked no questions, made no judgments, and gave them $20. They reacted like they had won the lottery.

The country clearly is not perfect.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/John-thomas-sandown-sable.png 592 636 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2025-02-26 09:02:182025-02-26 11:07:08The League of Extraordinary Traders
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 25, 2025

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
February 25, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(WALL STREET'S MYOPIA IS YOUR OPPORTUNITY)

(REGN), (RHHBY), (AMGN), (AZN), (ABBV), (LLY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-25 12:02:212025-02-26 11:06:11February 25, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Wallstreet's Myopia Is Your Opportunity

Biotech Letter

While preparing my presentation for this week's Online Traders Conference, I came across a pattern that made me stop cold. You see, I've been gathering examples of how institutional investors quietly accumulate positions while retail traders are looking the other way.

And there it was, right in front of me - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), displaying exactly the kind of setup I'll be warning traders about starting February 24.

You see, while everyone's been obsessing over the latest AI darlings, Regeneron has been quietly crushing it. Their Q4 revenue hit $3.79 billion, up 10.5% year-on-year.

But here's where it gets interesting - they beat consensus estimates by $43 million, and that's with their flagship eye drug Eylea taking a hit.

Speaking of Eylea, let's address the elephant in the room. Its sales dropped 11% to $1.19 billion, thanks to Roche's (RHHBY) Vabysmo muscling into their territory and Amgen's (AMGN) biosimilar crashing the party.

Four more biosimilars are waiting in the wings, held back only by patent disputes. Normally, this would send investors running for the hills.

But here's what the panic-sellers are missing.

Despite Eylea's challenges, Regeneron's non-GAAP EPS still climbed to $12.07, beating analyst expectations by 88 cents.

In fact, they've been playing jump rope with analyst estimates, leaping over them in 10 of the last 12 quarters. Yet their stock price has been doing its best impression of a sleeping cat - just lying there, barely moving.

As someone who's spent decades watching market cycles, I recognize this pattern.

We're in what technical analysts call an “accumulation phase.” While retail investors yawn and look elsewhere, institutional money is quietly building positions.

It's like watching a spring being compressed - boring until it isn't.

But here's what really got my attention: Regeneron just joined the dividend club. Starting March 20, they're paying $0.88 per quarter. Sure, the yield won't make income investors swoon, but that's not the point.

It reminds me of how AstraZeneca (AZN) played it - first, dominate growing markets, then gradually turn on the dividend spigot to attract the steady-money crowd.

They're also backing up the dividend with a $3 billion share buyback program.

With $9 billion in cash and short-term investments, they've got more dry powder than a Revolutionary War armory.

In Q4 alone, Regeneron spent $1.23 billion buying back shares - up 64.1% from last year.

And here's where it gets even more interesting. Their oncology franchise, led by Libtayo, is looking like a dark horse winner. Libtayo sales jumped 50.4% year-over-year to $367 million.

While that might not sound earth-shattering compared to cancer drug heavyweights like Merck's (MRK) Keytruda, Libtayo just pulled off something remarkable.

In their Phase 3 C-POST trial for high-risk skin cancer patients, Libtayo reduced death and disease recurrence risk by 68% compared to placebo.

Even better? Merck's competing trial for Keytruda in the same indication fell flat on its face. In this business, that's like watching your main competitor trip at the Olympic finals.

Looking ahead to 2029, I'm seeing revenue hitting $20.4 billion - think high single-digit growth each year. That would bring their price-to-sales ratio down from 5.12x to 3.53x.

Their non-GAAP EPS should hit $76.5, implying double-digit growth most years. With the stock currently trading at just 14.76x earnings - below most peers like AbbVie (19.06x) and Eli Lilly (64.96x).

On top of these, 2025 is packed with potential catalysts - clinical trial results and FDA decisions that could light a fire under the stock.

Analysts' average target is $929.37, suggesting about 38% upside. But in my experience, when you combine strong fundamentals, multiple growth drivers, and a market that's sleeping on the story, those targets often end up looking conservative.

Remember, the market loves nothing more than a comeback story.

With Regeneron, we might just be watching one unfold in slow motion. The question is: will you be holding shares when the spring finally releases?

For those who want to learn more about spotting these kinds of opportunities, I'll be diving deeper into institutional accumulation patterns at the Online Traders Conference running February 24 through March 1.

But don't wait for my presentation to take a serious look at Regeneron - the smart money isn't.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-25 12:00:202025-02-26 11:05:47Wallstreet's Myopia Is Your Opportunity
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 25, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 25, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(WHY YOUR OTHER INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER IS SO DANGEROUS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-25 09:04:062025-02-25 09:19:47February 25, 2025
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 25, 2025 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"As successful as solar has become, there was a bloody road of corporate carnage to get there," said Joel Makower, chairman of the GreenBiz Group.

Auction Signs

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Auction-Signs-e1430770931215.jpg 200 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2025-02-25 09:00:312025-02-25 09:19:58February 25, 2025 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 24, 2025

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 24, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(AI IS IN QUESTION)
(ELON MUSK AND OPEN AI)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

AI Is In Question

Tech Letter

Elon Musk wants to buy OpenAI and that partly has to do with the vendetta he has against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

This fiery feud isn’t going away anytime soon.

My bet is that it will burst into the open and OpenAI is actively attempting to put the governance in place to block Musk from seizing the company.

The issue Musk has with OpenAI is that it was founded as a non-profit from capital Musk gave.

It was responsible for doing what is right for humanity, but Altman’s attitude to the industry shows the inverse of that.

It appears to the outsiders that Altman is hellbent on driving the price of AI up for the consumer and delivering profits to big tech that have invested into his “non-profit.”

Musk’s recent attempt at an unsolicited takeover was rejected by CEO Sam Altman and OpenAI's nonprofit board.

Now the creator of ChatGPT reportedly wants to make sure that there are indirect poison pills associated with any outsider takeovers.

All of that will take some maneuvering by OpenAI’s board members and Altman, all of whom are defendants in a lawsuit from Musk that seeks to block OpenAI from converting to a for-profit business.

Right now, investors like Microsoft are not equity holders in OpenAI but instead hold limited profit interests in OpenAI's for-profit subsidiary. Once OpenAI is profitable, Microsoft is entitled to 75% of profits until it recoups its $13 billion principal investment. The other 25% of profits go to employees and early investors, up to specified profit caps.

Once Microsoft’s principal is repaid, it is entitled to 50% of its profits until it reaches a profit cap of $92 billion.

OpenAI said it wants to convert its nonprofit parent to a Delaware public benefit corporation (PBC) that would issue ordinary shares of stock.

Charitable organizations aren’t typically targets for hostile takeovers, especially not the type that Musk had in mind — an unsolicited $97.4 billion bid for OpenAI’s estimated $157 billion in intellectual property and other assets.

Musk's lawsuit seeking to prevent OpenAI's conversion to a for-profit enterprise centers around Musk's initial $45 million donation to fund the startup, which he claims was contingent on OpenAI remaining a nonprofit organization.

If Musk ever acquires OpenAI, I believe he will put on his DOGE hat and cut the costs of doing AI.

The genie is now out of the bottle and the Chinese have proved that AI doesn’t need the bloat.

AI can run on cheaper and older chips while not needing the same amount of data centers.

My belief is that Musk wants to democratize AI and make it cheap for everyone and that would be bad for tech shares specifically Nvidia and Microsoft.

Big tech has the incentive to make the price of AI high just like the supermarkets have an incentive to place higher prices in the supermarkets.

Don’t believe in this mumbo jumbo of supermarkets operating on thin margins when they do produce a lot of their own house brands.

Musk wants to take a samurai sword to AI and make it applicable to the average American.

He doesn’t want to see a situation in which AI is used by executives at corporations to fire everyone, and the readers should know that we are barreling right down the path of replacing workers with robots right now.

If Musk ever gets into the position of neutralizing OpenAI, sell your tech stocks right away, because there will be less peaks and more valleys in tech share prices after that.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-24 14:02:512025-02-24 14:51:28AI Is In Question
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (JPM) February 24, 2025 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-24 12:38:302025-02-24 12:38:30Trade Alert - (JPM) February 24, 2025 - BUY
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