?Taxes are what we pay for a civilized society,? said Oliver Wendell Holmes, a Supreme Court justice servicing at the time of the enactment of the tax code in 1913. The slogan is inscribed in huge letters on the face of the IRS headquarters in Washington DC.
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.
Further Update to: Trade Alert -(AAPL)
Buy the Apple (AAPL) February, 2014 $460-$490 bull call spread at $26.85 or best
Opening Trade
1-28-2014
expiration date: 2-21-2014
Portfolio weighting: 10%
Number of Contracts = 4 contracts
Let me tell you my thinking here.
More than 51 million iPhones sold is good enough for me, 3.2 million more than they moved a year ago, and they are more expensive devices. iPads leapt from 22.9 million to 26 million, including the five high end ones I bought.
The earnings announcement wasn?t that bad, with record quarterly YOY revenues of $57.6 billion reported. Earnings per share jumped a middling 5%, from $13.81 to $14.50, partially in response to the company?s own massive buyback program.
Gross margins came in at 37.9%, which would be gigantic if Apple were in any other industry but technology.
The dividend was nailed at $3.05 per share, setting the yield today at 2.43% annualized, a mere 30 basis points below ten-year Treasury bonds.
However, I think that traders have become so conditioned to selling on the news that the stock wasn?t going to take a dump no matter what the company said. This is why I went into the release flat on Apple this time. It?s too early in the year to lick wounds. At today?s low of $502, we were down $73 from the recent high, or 12.7%.
If you look back at the collapse after the September, 2012 $706 peak, it took two months for the shares to fall $100. For us to lose money on the Apple February, 2014 $460-$490 bull call spread, it would have to fall twice as fast as back then, and it has to do it in only 17 trading days. Sounds like a good bet to me.
We are also getting huge valuation support down here, with an ex cash multiple of 9, versus a market multiple of 16. Investors are going to hold a gun to the head of their portfolio managers to get them to average up in this neighborhood.
You also have corporate raider, green mailer, and former Manhattan neighbor of mine (activist, to be polite) Carl Icahn Twittering away about how cheap the stock is, and buying another $500 million worth of shares today to cash in on the plunge. You can see him coming in every time the stock takes a run at $507. Carl was not a factor in the last melt down.
For your edification, I have included a proprietary chart from my colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, showing huge technical support at the $470-$480 level. It is days like this that Jim is worth his weight in gold. Too bad he isn?t heavier.
The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous. Don?t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit.
Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices only. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months further out.
Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:
Buy 4 February, 2014 (AAPL) $460 calls at????.$50.65
Sell short 4 February, 2014 (AAPL) $490 calls a?$23.80
Net Cost:????????????....??..?.?......$26.85
Profit: $30 - $26.85 = $3.15
($3.15 X 100 X 4) = $1,260 ? 1.26% for the notional $100,000 model portfolio.
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Global Market Comments
January 28, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY FEBRUARY 14 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH),
(WHAT THE MARKETS ARE DOING FROM HERE),
(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (FXY), (TLT), (TBT), (XLF), (XLY),
(TURKEY IS ON THE MENU),
?(TUR), (TKC)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR (XLY)
iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR)
Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC)
For the last couple of nights, I have left my iPhone logged into the Argentina peso market, one of several troubled currencies igniting the emerging market contagion. Whenever the peso losses another handle to the US dollar, an alarm goes off. That gives me a head start on how American markets will behave the next day.
I have not been getting a lot of sleep lately. My poor phone has recently been sounding off like a winning slot machine at a Las Vegas casino.
Take a look at the long-term chart for the peso, and it?s clear that some traders have not gotten any sleep for five years, when the peso cratered 50% against the greenback. An imploding currency, soaring national debt, and sliding economy promise to send it lower.
Incompetent leadership doesn?t help either. You know that things are bad when your ships get seized by creditors when they land at foreign ports.
When I wrote my all asset class forecast for 2014, there was only one thing I knew for sure: this year would be harder than last. That has been my best prediction for 2014 so far.
The guaranteed shorts, those for the Japanese yen (FXY) and the Treasury bond market (TLT), have been rocketing to the upside since the opening bell rang on January 2. The no brainer longs, like financials (XLF) and consumer discretionaries (XLY), have been plummeting.
The heart wrenching 4.3% correction we saw for the S&P 500 (SPY), and the 5% hit for the Dow average this month, the worst weekly draw down in two years, has predictably brought the Armageddon crowd out of the closet once again. All of a sudden, a 10% correction best case, and Dow 3,000 worst case, are on the table once again. Do they have a leg to stand on?
Not really.
To achieve these big numbers on the downside, your really need a global systemic financial crisis. There isn?t one remotely on the horizon. Yes, there are difficulties in Argentina, the Ukraine, and Turkey. But they are locally confined.
Together, these countries account for less than 1% of global GDP. If they disappeared completely, they would barely make a blip in world GDP. They certainly are not important enough to panic you into emptying your ATM at the local mall on your next lunch break.
You also need excessive leverage. But that has been banned by prime brokers since the 2008 crash. An aggressive long today is 20% net long, not 200% as in the bad old days of yore. Nothing systemic there.
Sure, we aren?t getting the juice that we used to from the Federal Reserve. It is likely that they will further reduce the taper from $75 billion to $65 billion of bond buying per month at their 1:00 PM Wednesday press release.
If there were a one in a million chance that this would trigger a real market meltdown, my friend, Fed governor Janet Yellen, would run that release through the shredder as fast as you could say ?Go Bears?, sending markets flying.
Others are accusing a looming financial crisis in China as another culprit. Yes, the economic data has been soggy of late, to be sure. However, that is just the continuation of a four year old trend. You can safely forget about that one.
No country in history ever suffered a financial crisis with $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves on hand, including over $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds close to all time highs in value. In fact many of the emerging markets said to be in trouble also boast large reserves, the product of running massive trade surpluses with a hyper consuming West for the past decade.
So if we can?t blame emerging markets or the taper for the downside, then what is causing the January swoon? You can blame it all on the hedge funds.
I have seen this time and again. Whenever too many people crowd into one end of a canoe, it rolls over. When the majority of funds have identical positions, they are guaranteed to fail. That is why we have had a looking glass market performance since the beginning of this year.
Except that this time we got a turbocharger. The peaking of concentration in the most popular trades perfectly coincided with the big New Year reallocation trade, taking prices to greater extremes. Much of the selling you are seeing down here is from latecomers who bought stock only three weeks ago and are now puking them out.
Of course, I saw all of this coming a country mile off. This is why I cut my net long from 100% 10 days ago to only 10%. It is why I am maintaining a year to date performance of +5.13%, compared to a Dow that is down -5%. It is one of my best gains relative to the index over a short period ever.
The same is true of my colleague, Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker. He is almost all in cash and is also well up on the year. He stuck his toe in the water with a small position in some calls on the (TBT) last week, but it got bit off by a shark almost immediately. So he quickly stopped out, as is his way. Of course, we have been comparing notes and sharing input throughout the selling. It appears that great minds think alike.
Jim?s proprietary in-house analysis predicts that the (SPX) will bottom out just above 1,730, the market close on the November 15 options expiration. If correct, that would give us a total start to finish correction of only 6.7%, which is in line with every other correction for the past two years. But the bottoming process could last a few weeks, and provide several more gut churning dumps. Fasten your seat belt.
When will this end? Watch for the parallel confirming cross market trends. The Treasury bond market is a big one, which appears to be peaking already, right at its 200 day moving average and the top of a six month trading range.? Announcement of the next taper could spark the selloff we need there. The Japanese yen is also important. A top here could signal a return to the carry trade and ?RISK ON?.
Since Emerging markets were the instigator of the crisis, look there as well for the first signs of a turnaround. Scrutinize the chart below, and you gain some heart.? It shows that we are a scant 70 cents from setting up a potential multiyear triple bottom at $37, and worst-case $36.
More specifically, you want to see Turkey (TUR), another instigator of this crisis, recoil from $39. Expect it to bounce hard there, as long as the world is really not ending.
Then it will be off to the races once more. I?ll be keeping my powder dry until then. Watch this space.
The Argentine Peso Against the US Dollar
Time To Keep Your Powder Dry
I am building lists of emerging market ETF?s to snap up during the current sell off, and Turkey popped up on the menu.
The country is only one of two Islamic countries that I consider investment grade, (Indonesia is the other one). The 82 million people of Turkey rank 15th in the world population, and 16th with a GDP of $960 billion. Furthermore, 25% of the population is under the age of 15, giving it one of the planet?s most attractive demographic profiles.
The real driver for Turkey is a rapidly rising middle class, generating consumer spending that is growing by leaps and bounds. Its low waged labor force is also a major exporter to the modestly recovering European Community next door. The present collapse of the Turkish Lira increases that advantage.
I first trod the magnificent hand woven carpets of Istanbul?s Aga Sophia in the late sixties while on my way to visit the rubble of Troy and what remained of the trenches at Gallipoli, a bloody WWI battlefield.
Remember the cult film Midnight Express? If it weren?t for the nonstop traffic jam of vintage fifties Chevy?s on the one main road along the Bosphorus, I might as well have stepped into the Arabian Nights. They were still using the sewer system built by the Romans.
Four decades later, and I find Turkey among a handful of emerging nations on the cusp of joining the economic big league. Exports are on a tear. Prime Minister Erdogan, whose AKP party took control in 2002, implemented a series of painful economic reform measures and banking controls, which have proven hugely successful.
Foreign multinationals like General Electric, Ford, and Vodafone, have poured into the country, attracted by a decent low waged work force and a rapidly rising middle class. The Turkish Lira has long been a hedge fund favorite, attracted by high interest rates.
Still, Turkey is not without its problems. It does battle with Kurdish separatists in the east, and has suffered its share of horrific terrorist attacks. There is a risk that it gets sucked further into the Syrian civil war. Inflation at 7.4% is a worry, but that?s down from 8.88% a year ago.
The play here has long been to buy ahead of membership in the European Community, which it has been denied for four decades. Suddenly, that outsider status has morphed from a problem to an advantage.
The way to get involved here is with an ETF heavily weighted in banks and telecommunications companies, classic emerging market growth industries like (TUR). You also always want to own the local cell phone company in countries like this, which in Turkey is Turkcell (TKC). Turkey is not a riskless trade, and has already had a great run, but is well worth keeping on your radar.
I See A Trade Setting Up HereWhile the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.