While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Global Market Comments
September 13, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS ANOTHER NEW ALL TIME HIGH),
(FXY), (YCS), (FCX), (AAPL), (FXA),
(LOADING UP ON AUSTRALIA),
(FXA), (EWA), ($SSEC), ($BDI),
(UPDATE ON FREEPORT MCMORAN) (FCX)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
iShares MSCI Australia Index (EWA)
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC)
Baltic Dry Index ($BDI)
It looks like I?m Waltzing Matilda again. I am going to use the two-cent drop last night to scale into a long position in the Australian dollar. This is a dip in the (FXA) that gives up one quarter of the four-cent move off of the August 88 cent bottom.
The decline was triggered by dismal employment data showing that 10,200 jobs were lost in August. Many analysts had been expecting job gains. To give you some perspective, this is equivalent to the US getting a nonfarm payroll of (minus) -150,000 out of the blue when everyone had been expecting an improvement of a similar amount. Yikes!
The problem with this analysis is that employment data is a lagging indicator, sometimes a deep one. A few things have happened since these numbers were collated. The China hard landing has been taken off the table, emerging markets (EEM) have been screaming, and there have been massive short covering rallies across the entire hard asset space. Looking at just this single data point is the equivalent to driving ninety miles an hour and only looking at the rear view mirror.
You wanted a dip to buy? This is a dip.
The steadily improving China data puts not just the Aussie in a fresh new light, but all Australian assets. If it is sustainable, then Australian stocks also look great down here as well. The Australia iShares ETF (EWA) has told you as much, rocketing some 16% off the August lows, triple the gains seen here in the US. Australian bonds are the only security you want to walk away from, which are likely to see further losses matching those in the US.
You?ve gotta love Australia. It is the low cost producer of a whole range of economically sensitive commodities, including iron ore, copper, natural gas, coal, tin, gold, wool, wheat, beef, and others. Get it right and you make a fortune. It is the leveraged play on an improving global economy. Call it a call option on the world. If you have any doubts about the attractions of the Land Down Under, just spend a free summer afternoon strolling Sydney?s Bondi Beach.
If you want some independently confirming data on the likelihood of this turnaround, look at the chart below of the Baltic Dry Index, which reflects the cost of chartering dry bulk ships to carry stuff like iron ore and coal. It has been absolutely on fire, blasting up by 100% in the past four weeks.
This morning?s unbelievable 31,000 drop in weekly jobless claims to 292,000, a new five year low, reaches the same conclusion. It is a far more contemporaneous data set, and reflects a return to a normal economy. The Australian jobs data is so old it has hair growing in it.
The unfortunate aspect of this Trade Alert is that (FXA) options are fairly illiquid, and trade at double the normal spread found in the foreign exchange options market, so execution here is crucial. Put in a limit order for the spread that works for you. If you don?t get done, just walk away and wait for the next Trade Alert, of which there will be many.
Or you can just buy the (FXA) outright, given that the August low on the charts is looking pretty solid. Buy some Australian shares (EWA) too, while you?re at it, and throw a couple more steaks on the barbie!
Suddenly, Australia is Looking Very Attractive
Those who bought my Trade Alert on the Freeport McMoRan (FCX) October $28-$30 bull call spread at $1.68 or best two days ago will be thrilled to see the charts below. They were prepared by my friends at Stockcharts.com, who offer a very reasonable subscription technical analysis product (click here for their site http://stockcharts.com ).
After testing $26 three times over the past two years, the stock has forged a major long term bottom that appears unassailable. This almost perfectly matches the chart for the Chinese stock market, which is demonstrating almost identical strength. Conclusion: higher prices for copper and the rest of the commodity space.
Just thought you?d like to know.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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