“This could be the beginning of the end of the bond market,” said my friend, the legendary hedge fund manager, David Tepper.
“This could be the beginning of the end of the bond market,” said my friend, the legendary hedge fund manager, David Tepper.
For generations, securing a loan, particularly a mortgage, has been synonymous with lengthy delays, mountains of paperwork, and nerve-wracking uncertainty. Borrowers traditionally faced weeks, sometimes even months, navigating a complex process involving manual data entry, extensive document checks, and subjective underwriting decisions. But this cumbersome reality is rapidly fading as Artificial Intelligence (AI) injects unprecedented speed and efficiency into the lending world, compressing approval timelines from weeks into mere minutes and fundamentally reshaping how credit is accessed and granted.
The Drudgery of Traditional Lending
The traditional loan approval process was notoriously slow and fraught with potential bottlenecks. It began with applicants submitting piles of documents – pay stubs, tax returns, bank statements, and identification. Loan officers or processors then manually sifted through this information, painstakingly entering data into disparate systems. This stage alone was ripe for errors and delays.
Next came verification, requiring cross-checking submitted details against various sources, often involving phone calls or further documentation requests. The core of the process, underwriting, relied heavily on human judgment to assess creditworthiness based primarily on credit scores, income, and debt-to-income ratios. While experienced underwriters brought valuable expertise, this stage could be subjective, prone to unconscious bias, and time-consuming, especially during peak application periods. For borrowers needing swift financial decisions, whether for a home purchase, a small business expansion, or an emergency, these protracted timelines often led to missed opportunities and significant stress. Industry estimates suggest closing a mortgage in the U.S. traditionally took anywhere from 30 to 60 days – a lifetime in today's fast-paced digital economy.
AI Steps In: The Mechanics of Accelerated Approvals
Artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning (ML) and associated technologies like Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Optical Character Recognition (OCR), tackles these traditional bottlenecks head-on.
Tangible Results: Efficiency Gains and Market Impact
The impact of AI on lending speed is not merely theoretical. Financial institutions implementing these technologies are reporting significant improvements. FORUM Credit Union, using automated underwriting, estimated it could process up to 70% more loans compared to purely manual methods. Research published on ResearchGate indicated banks using AI-driven document automation saw loan approvals processed 70% faster. Fintech lenders, built from the ground up with AI, often provide decisions almost instantaneously, setting a new standard for customer expectations.
This speed translates into increased capacity, allowing lenders to handle higher volumes without compromising quality or needing to proportionally increase staff. It also accelerates loan funding, a critical advantage in competitive markets like auto loans offered through dealerships.
Beyond Speed: Enhanced Accuracy, Fairness, and Experience
While speed is the most dramatic benefit, AI offers other significant advantages. By minimizing manual data handling, it drastically reduces costly human errors. The ability to analyze diverse datasets, including alternative data, holds the potential to make lending more inclusive, providing access to credit for individuals with "thin" or non-traditional credit files, such as recent immigrants or young adults.
AI also enhances the customer experience. AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants provide 24/7 support, answering borrower questions instantly and guiding them through the application process. AI can personalize loan offers based on individual profiles and financial situations, providing tailored solutions rather than one-size-fits-all products.
Navigating the Hurdles: Bias, Privacy, and Regulation
Despite its transformative potential, AI implementation in lending faces critical challenges.
The Future is Fast: What's Next for AI in Lending?
Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, AI's role in lending will only deepen. Trends include hyper-automation, where AI orchestrates end-to-end processes with minimal human touch. Generative AI is poised to further enhance customer interaction through more sophisticated chatbots and to automate the generation of reports and summaries. We may see greater integration with blockchain for enhanced security and transparency in transactions. The focus will continue to be on using AI not just for speed, but for creating highly personalized, seamless, and fair borrowing experiences. Financial institutions, both traditional players and fintech disruptors, recognize that leveraging AI effectively is no longer optional but essential for staying competitive.
Conclusion: A New Era of Lending
Artificial intelligence is irrevocably changing the loan approval process. By automating tasks, analyzing data at scale, and enabling near-instantaneous decisions, AI delivers the speed and efficiency demanded by modern consumers and businesses. While significant challenges around bias, privacy, and regulation must be carefully managed, the benefits are undeniable. The transition from laborious, weeks-long processes to streamlined, minutes-long approvals marks a profound shift, promising a future where accessing credit is faster, potentially fairer, and more accessible than ever before.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 5, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(COST OF DIGITAL CONTENT ON THE RISE)
(NFLX), (DIS)
A torpedo has just hit the world of digital content.
The cost of digital content is about to skyrocket as Washington D.C., plans to levy a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the states.
Actually, this is one of Hollywood’s dirty little secrets and a big way they cut costs by outsourcing film production to Eastern Europe or Southeast Asia.
Budapest, Hungary, has become a major hub for studios to geoarbitrage production, and a massive studio has sprouted up in this part of Europe.
Millions of expenses have been saved by not making movies in the United States, and so much has been outsourced that the administration has created a new tariff to get the movie business back in the United States.
I would not say this is anything like a national security threat, even to the point that I would say that Hollywood is more or less socially irrelevant in 2025.
However, corporate entertainment content still moves the needle even if people don’t watch it anymore.
It also keeps people employed, and this is a specific attempt to force whoever is making these movies to return to the United States instead of hiring cheaper Hungarians to make our movies.
Imposing a 100% tariff on all films produced abroad that are then sent into the United States will negate most of the cost savings.
A bombshell like this will hurt employment in the industry, causing companies to fire staff much like tech has been doing for the past few years.
Movie and TV production has been exiting Hollywood for years, heading to locations with tax incentives that make filming cheaper.
Governments around the world have increased credits and cash rebates to attract productions and capture a greater share of the $248 billion that will be spent globally in 2025 to produce content.
All major media companies, including Walt Disney (DIS), Netflix (NFLX), and Universal Pictures, film overseas to increase profits.
Film and television production has fallen by nearly 40% over the last decade in Hollywood’s home city of Los Angeles, because of the outrageous cost of doing business in the state of California.
The January wildfires accelerated concerns that producers may look outside Los Angeles, and that camera operators, costume designers, sound technicians, and other behind-the-scenes workers may move out of town rather than try to rebuild in their neighborhoods.
Ultimately, this tariff is devastating to digital content.
This is also on the heels of China limiting Hollywood to only 10 movie imports into China per year.
The city of Los Angeles is about to face a rash of job losses as digital content companies will turn to AI to fill out the rest of the production.
Much less content will be made if these large budget productions of over $20 million cannot be outsourced to cheaper global south employees.
In general, the cost of creating digital content will increase and be painful for the average content maker.
Who does this favor?
Those individual YouTubers who go around filming on a selfie stick while simultaneously editing their own content.
Any digital content company masquerading as a global Titanic will need to shrink accordingly and get leaner.
Americans will need to think twice whether to develop production outside of the United States with this new steep cost.
Companies that will be hurt from this are Netflix, Disney, Amazon, and Comcast.
If these executives don’t pay the tariffs, they could even find themselves locked up in Alcatraz.
Who would have thought that a few days ago?
“Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.” – Said CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
(THE RETAIL INVESTOR & WARREN BUFFETT ARE POLES APART)
May 5, 2025
Hello everyone
WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR
MONDAY, MAY 5
9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (April)
9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services final (April)
10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (April)
Previous: 50.8
Forecast: 50.6
Earnings: Clorox, Palantir Technologies, Ford Motor, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Diamondback Energy, Coterra Energy, Zimmer Biomet Loews, Tyson Foods, ON Semiconductor
TUESDAY, MAY 6
8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (March)
10:00 a.m. Canada Ivey PMI
Previous: 51.3
Forecast: 51.2
Earnings: Arista Networks, Wynn Resorts, Electronic Arts, Devon Energy, Advanced Micro Devices, TransDigm Group, Marriott International, IQVIA Holdings, Fastenal, Duke Energy, American Electric Power, Gartner, Marathon Petroleum, Global Payments, Fidelity National Information Services, Constellation Energy, Archer-Daniels-Midland
WEDNESDAY, MAY 7
2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting
Previous: 4.5%
Forecast: 4.5%
2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound
3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit SA
Earnings: Paycom Software, Fortinet, Skyworks Solutions, Axon Enterprise, Occidental Petroleum, DoorDash, Corteva, EF Industries Holdings, Rockwell Automation, Uber Technologies, Emerson Electric, Walt Disney.
THURSDAY, MAY 8
7:00 a.m. UK Rate Decision
Previous: 4.5%
Forecast: 4.25%
8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (04/26)
8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (05/03)
8:30 a.m. Unit Labour Costs preliminary (Q1)
8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q1)
10:00 Wholesale Inventories final (March)
Earnings: Expedia Group, Insulet, TKO Group Holdings, Paramount Global, Microchip Technology, Akamai Technologies, Warner Bros. Discovery, ConocoPhillips, Tapestry, Molson Coors Beverage, Match Group.
FRIDAY, MAY 9
8:30 a.m. Canada Unemployment Rate
Previous: 6.7%
Forecast: 6.7%
8:30 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams speaks on Taylor Rules in Policy, Stanford University.
10:00 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of Research and Head of the Statistics Group Kartik Athreya speaks on NY State Large Credit Unions CEO Roundtable.
10:15 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams speaks on Reykjavik Economic Conference, Iceland.
All Eyes on The Fed This Week
The Federal Reserve Meeting will be a key focus this week – traders will be awaiting crucial updates on interest rate projections and the Fed’s assessment of the US economy. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged, but they will likely stress that the economic outlook is uncertain, thanks to tariffs, federal layoffs, & stricter immigration. It will be interesting to see if the US dollar can continue its bounce.
The Average Investor and Warren Buffett – like chalk and cheese
It could be argued that Warren Buffett’s results came from reputation, privilege, access and hard-fought strategic advantage, and not simply buying and holding undervalued stocks.
For most of the last 60 years, Buffett has operated from a position of scale, influence and privilege, that’s completely inaccessible to retail investors. Many of his most lucrative deals weren’t found in the bargain bin of the stock exchange – they were created in private conversations with CEOs, Treasury Secretaries, and Presidents. His returns weren’t solely fuelled by patience, discipline and astute stock selection – they were turbocharged by exclusive deals, regulatory favour and reputation-fuelled access.
So, let’s check out Buffett’s advantages –
Firstly, you and I invest our own money which we need to earn first and then pay taxes on.
Buffett invests other people’s money, for free, pre-tax, and pockets his share of the gains.
That’s thanks to the “Insurance Float Advantage” – this has helped him grow wealth faster than any average investor ever could hope to aspire.
Secondly, Buffett prefers not to pay dividends, allowing Berkshire Hathaway to retain earnings and compound wealth tax-efficiently.
The average investor mostly cannot afford to compound their returns over a 60-year investment career without having to take any out to live on.
Thirdly, many of Buffett’s deals included warrants and preferred shares with terms that provided Berkshire Hathaway with significant upside but very limited risk – structures not available to retail investors who instead must invest in riskier common stock. Billions of Buffett’s profits were accumulated in this fashion.
Next, we can understand Buffett’s additional advantage in having direct access to policymakers and financial government agency officials that the average investor couldn’t even hope to have. Since the 1980’s, Buffett’s companies, such as BNSF and his utilities, have benefited from policies shaped in part by industry lobbying. Berkshire has influence in Washington and Wall Street circles far beyond the average investor’s reach.
Of particular significance is Buffett’s access to private placements and preferential treatment since 1967. For example, Buffett was involved in the rescue of GE Capital in 2008, when he invested $3 billion in preferred GE stock yielding 10% annually, with added warrants. Ordinary investors got none of these protective features.
It is arguable that Buffett’s greatest returns were made decades ago, and that his post-1990s returns were heavily reliant on reputation, access, and scale – not just investment skill.
The average investor has no chance to be like Warren Buffett. Yes, we can be patient, and buy cheap stocks, and hold them, but we certainly don’t have proximity to policymakers and government officials, nor do we get special deals or preferential treatment.
My advice: do not compare yourself to Warren Buffett. Instead, keep educating yourself, and keep buying stocks through turbulent times and when the market is rallying.
MARKET UPDATE
S&P 500
The index has broken above key resistance at 5475/85. The price action could be part of a period of limited ranging, with an upside bias – though don’t expect large moves to the upside. This could last for the next few months.
Resistance: 5700/5780/5885
Support: 5570/5475 area
GOLD
Gold has moved lower from the April 22nd high at $3500. Bearish technical argue that we may have seen the top for at least a month, and potentially much more.
But when topping occurs, we must remember that it is common to see periods of ranging, rather than a one- way decline.
Resistance: $3265/70 and $3367
Support: $3200/$3160/$3049
BITCOIN
Bitcoin has hit 97.9k – that 109.4k peak remains in view. However, some consolidation may be seen for the next few weeks before we see more strong moves to the upside.
Resistance: 97.9/100.5/101k
Support: 95.3/95.8k and 92.7/88.5k
CURRENT TRADES
Take profits in the (IBIT) and (MSTR) options spreads expiring in May. Monitor (MSTR) option spread expiring in July and your (IBIT) expiring in June. It was up to each individual how many contracts they entered for each trade.
(IBIT)
(IBIT) Price = $48.14 on March 17, 2025
1/ Sell 1 May 16, 2025, (IBIT) $55 call
Buy 1 May 16, 2025, (IBIT) $50 call
Max Profit = $337
Max Loss = $163
Cost = $1.63
Sell 1 June 20, 2025(IBIT) $65 call
Buy 1 June 20, 2025 (IBIT) $55 call
Max Profit = $815
Max Loss = $185
Cost = $1.85
(MSTR)
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Price = $297.49 on March 17,
Sell 1 May 16, 2025 (MSTR) $320 call
Buy 1 May 16, 2025 (MSTR) $310 call
Max Profit = $630
Max Loss = $370
Cost = $3.70
Sell 1 July 18, 2025 ((MSTR) $325 call
Buy 1 July 18, 2025 (MSTR) $315 call
Max Profit = $647
Max Loss = $353
Cost = $3.5
MicroStrategy Daily Chart (March 17, 2025)
(MSTR) May 2, 2025
(IBIT) Daily Chart (March 17, 2025
(IBIT) May 2, 2025
HISTORY CORNER
On May 5
QI CORNER
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
Nicole Lapin
NYT bestselling author
Money News Network founder
Cheers
Jacquie
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information on what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
May 5, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD or EXPENSIVE AGAIN),
(SPY), (TSLA), (MSTR), (NVDA), (NFLX), (SPY), (GLD)
Legal Disclaimer
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