Page 1919 - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Bottom is in for the Ags

Take a look at the drought monitor below, and you?ll see that it looks exactly like the one we saw a year ago. Yes, that?s the one right before we saw prices double for corn (CORN) and most other agricultural products.

The global warming trade may be about to return with a vengeance. If the weather so far this year is any indication, the trading pits in Chicago could break out in riots at any time. This winter, hurricane Sandy ravaged the east coast, tornadoes decimated Kansas, and California suffered its driest winter in 20 years. Water rationing on the west coast is now almost a certainty. Extreme weather is breaking out everywhere.

Regular readers are well aware of my predictions of major global food shortages in the years ahead (click here for ?Is Food the New Distressed Asset??).

The basic problem is that the world is making people faster than the food to feed them. Rising emerging market standards of living are increasing their food consumption at the expense of poorer countries.? If everyone in China eats one extra egg a day, the entire continent of Africa has to starve.

The global population is expected to rise from 7 billion to 9 billion over the next 40 years, and half of that increase will occur in countries that can?t feed themselves today, largely in the Middle East.

Global fresh water supplies are shrinking fast. Throw global warming into the mix, and a crisis will unfold sooner than later. These are all arguments to use a major dips in the food ETF?s, (CORN), (SOYB), (DBA), and (WEAT), to pick up long positions. And we have just witnessed a nine month long sell off in the sector. In addition, my technical trading pro, Jim Parker, The Mad Day Trader, loves the charts. It?s time to go shopping in the cereal section of your local stock exchange.

Time to Go Long Corn

The One Economic Indicator You Can Rely On

Diary, Newsletter

There is no end to which I am willing to go to understand the future direction of the world economy. So when I learned that the price of Brazilian bikini waxes was going through the roof, I had to sit up and take note. Last month, the price of the popular beauty treatment soared by 16.6% to 35 Reals, about $22.

This is no joke. The Brazilian government includes the removal of unsightly body hair in the most strategic of places in a basket of consumer services that it uses in calculating the country?s inflation rate, now estimated at 6.49%. An economist in Rio de Janeiro assured me that this has nothing to do with the opposite sex. It is one of the few measures they track, which can?t be clouded through the surreptitious altering of its quantity or quality. You either get it, or you don?t.

The big picture here is that inflation is worsening, not only in Brazil, but other emerging markets, like China, India, and Vietnam. This is why the yields on one year Brazilian debt are sky-high, a hedge fund favorite.

What can I say? An economic indicator in the hand is worth two in the bush? And I won?t even get into the implications of ?Stealth? inflation. This certainly gives new meaning to the term ?market bottom.?

The Latest Economic Indicator?

An Evening With Malcolm Gladwell

Evening VIP

I spent an evening with the New Yorker magazine columnist, Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point, Blink, and Outliers, and probably the most prolific publisher of original, consensus challenging ideas today.

Half English and half Jamaican, the preeminent challenger of clich?s and stereotypes was himself a clich? and a stereotype. He wore the standard issue New York intellectual?s blazer, pressed shirt, blue jeans, and loafers, to compliment his gaunt face and conspicuous afro.

His latest book challenges the myth of meritocracy, that luck is a bigger factor in success than privilege or education, and that, in fact, all meritocracies are rigged. Bill Gates built Microsoft not by being brilliant, but by having the good fortune to be raised by a family who could send him to one of the few Seattle high schools that then had a computer program. The Beatles made it only because they practiced more than any other group in history.

The falling crime rate since the seventies was not the result of a series of new, tough anti-crime laws, but the removal of lead from gasoline in 1973, which literally drove young inner city dwellers violently insane. Successful hockey players are almost exclusively born during the first three months of the year, enabling them to beat the crap out of younger, smaller competitors in their junior years.

It is cheaper to deal with the homeless than ignore them, because of the massive drain they create on the public health system. He cited the infamous example of the drunk, ?Million dollar Murray,? who single handedly drained the budgets of Reno, Nevada?s emergency rooms. Gladwell?s arguments may not be accurate, or even right, but he certainly forced you to look at problems from a new perspective. This I value highly.

May 30, 2013 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone,? said the legendary economist, John Maynard Keynes, founder of the modern monetary system.

May 29, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 29, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(RECOLLECTIONS OF A MARINE),
(THE BLACK SWAN SOLUTION TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS)

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $209.

The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

Recollections of a Marine

Diary, Newsletter

As the son of a Marine who served on Guadalcanal in 1942, I had an unusual childhood. The memories all came flooding back to me as the HBO program, The Pacific, which aired once again over this Memorial Day weekend.

Every scene in the ten-hour series I had already heard about around campfires, at veteran?s reunions, or in officers clubs around the world. At five, I learned how to open a coconut by tapping around the three eyes with a bayonet. At ten, I could shinny up a palm tree with a belt wrapped around my ankles.

I learned that you can shoot down a Japanese zero fighter by leading with four hand widths and aiming high. A tank can be disabled by ramming a log into its tracks. There was the survival training; practicing how to find water in the desert, setting a snare trap to catch small animals to eat, and starting a fire with only flint and steel. All the sniper training was fun, but was fortunately never put to use.

I can still thrill the kids by hitting a quarter taped to a tree 50 feet away with a Winchester lever action 30-30. We outfitted ourselves with surplus WWII equipment from the ?Supply Sergeant? for camping trips, which you could buy for a couple dollars. Now, you only find these things in museums. We ate left over C-rations.

Perhaps it was dad?s explanation of how to make highly alcoholic hooch out of canned peaches that led to my degree in biochemistry. In the end, I had my own Marine career as a pilot in Desert Storm. There you learn the true meaning of ?gung ho.? At 61, I stay in boot camp shape. This week, I am hiking 100 miles in in the High Sierras over 8,000 feet in eight days. I am carrying a 60-pound pack, and living on only 500 calories a day entirely composed of fruit and nuts. I love every minute of it.

Watching the series, I was reminded how feeble and meaningless my profession is, toiling away all year just to create a spreadsheet full of numbers, and how the men of seven decades ago were made of sterner stuff. Buying a dip on a bad day just doesn?t equate to ?take out that machine gun.? How times have changed.

You can buy the Hugh Ambrose book the series was based at Amazon on by clicking here.

May 29, 2013 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?When asked how he manages the time to be chairman of Microsoft, run the world?s largest charity, and raise three kids, Bill Gates answered ?I don?t mow the lawn.?

May 28, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 28, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAY 29 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(ANNOUNCING THE RELAUNCH OF HEDGE FUND RADIO),
(SKYBRIDGE CAPITAL?S ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI ON HEDGE FUND RADIO)
(SPY), (EWJ), (DXJ), (TLT), (FXY),
?(YCS), (IDX), (EWM), (EWS), (GLD)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (IDX)
iShares MSCI Malaysia Index (EWM)
iShares MSCI Singapore Index (EWS)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

Announcing the Relaunch of Hedge Fund Radio

Diary, Newsletter

I often get asked by readers to share the industry contacts that enable me to make such timely and insightful market calls. Now you have the opportunity to do so.

Hedge Fund Radio is the online radio program for the true investment professional. There, you can hear me roll out my 40-year accumulation of trading contacts from across the width and breadth of the financial industry. It will enable you to match my own trading performance, which has catapulted me to the top of the hedge fund industry.

My guests will include legendary hedge fund managers, research analysts, senior government officials, specialized niche managers, industry experts, and the occasional world leader. To make these as interesting and informative as possible, I?ll be drawing on my ten years of experience as the radio correspondent British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in Tokyo.

My goal is to further enhance your understanding of the global financial system through these one-on-one interviews, which will last 30-60 minutes. It will give you the opportunity to find out who the figures that shape our markets really are. You can obtain all of this for a mere $4.95 per show, which you can order one at a time.

Purchasing a download of the entire interview for $4.95 is very simple. Just go to the HEDGE FUND RADIO menu tab and click on the pull down menu for RADIO SHOW (click here ). Click on the green BUY NOW button and complete the order form. A blue link will appear telling you to ?click here to proceed?. Then click on the small blue box with the question mark inside to download. Hit the PLAY arrow to listen. You can pause, fast forward, or rewind at any time.