Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 24, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE FUTURE IS HERE)
(NO CODE)
The future is here.
No code or low code will bring a raft of new innovative tech companies to market, and we are in the early innings of this transformative development.
What is no code?
No-code is an approach to designing and using applications that requires zero coding or knowledge of programming languages.
This type of software hits us at a perfect time when the home office is beginning to become ubiquitous.
The self-service movement that empowers business users will support the creation, manipulation, and employment of data-driven applications.
If we turn back the pages of history, companies need an army of software programmers to develop even the measliest application.
That was then and this is now.
Fast forward to today and automated technology doesn’t only include cutting-edge industries like automotive cars, but also software on laptops that can be rejigged by individual entrepreneurs.
That’s right, one person with no coding experience will be able to design, develop, and offer a real-life application with meaningful business value without the help of expert programmers.
The research data backs up my thesis with research firms projecting a 23% increase in the global market for this type of technology.
During the pandemic, low-code/no-code tools saw steady growth due to their effectiveness in addressing some of tech’s most complicated challenges.
The essential need to digitize workflows and enhance customer and employee experiences will be a boost to the efficiency of commercial and operational teams.
No-code platforms have evolved from just facilitating mundane tasks to making it possible for a broader range of business employees to truly own their automation and build new software applications with no coding while increasing organizational capacity.
A few risks that larger companies might consider is that even for remote developers building new applications, governance is paramount.
IT staff will need to install guardrails and have those built into low-code/no-code platforms to maintain consistent levels of security across the organization.
Cybersecurity solutions need to be integrated into this workflow by training every employee at the organization on security behavior and using compartmentalization and limited access to prevent opportunities for mistakes.
Hard landings are hard to recover from and some can be crippling to the business model.
For no-code companies, harmonizing workflows is a key requirement for success.
In a low-code/no-code organization, departments should be able to work without silos and communicate freely across functions.
Elevated performance enabled by low-code/no-code tools will mean that the number of useful apps hurling toward the marketplace will be more and merrier than ever before.
Higher performance will no doubt usher in a new renaissance of efficiency and even better performance.
This also puts a 3 or even 4-day workweek squarely in play.
Many of the best tech minds in the world have supported the concept of working smarter instead of working harder.
A low code/no-code standard will allow for these achievements to take place.
The cratering of costs to start and run a tech firm is affected too.
Deploying startup capital to pay for other expenses will make it easier for successful incubation.
This will ultimately mean that this new type of tech company will need to embrace the fusion of IT and business staff, empowering them with composable applications to speed up the time to market for new solutions.
Low-code/no-code, APIs, and other tools are enabling companies to integrate new applications into their existing tech stack in a more seamless manner with a lift-and-shift approach vs. a rip-and-replace.
At the entrepreneur level, individuals will be able to harness the technology to build $100 million companies with a snap of the fingers when it wasn’t possible to do it before.
This is finally a chance for the little guy to recapture their moxie in the vast and sometimes overwhelming business world.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
(CONSUMERS ARE BEING SWINDLED IN THE BANKING WORLD)
July 24, 2024
Hello everyone,
Savings account traps: why billions are disappearing
Research shows that Australian adults are losing an average of $1500 per person every year through using the wrong savings accounts.
The research paper by financial services technology company Upworth says consumers collectively miss out on about $30 billion in interest annually, often because of confusing accounts, information overload, or overconfidence.
It says cash deposits currently pay between 0% and 5.75%, and almost three-quarters of bonus interest savings accounts do not pay the bonus rate because savers don’t meet the conditions required.
Upworth illustrates the fact that complex product design often makes it hard to compare products. The headline interest rate is a very different concept from the effective interest rate an individual earns. Base rates, bonus rates, and introductory rates all come in the mix.
Upworth co-founder Maxime Chaury said people with deposits were lending money to their banks, and banks were trying to minimize their borrowing costs.
Chaury points out one of the easiest ways to do this is to make their product offering confusing and have as many low-interest-rate savings accounts as possible and as few high-interest-rate savings accounts. And what that does is increase the chances you will end up with a low-interest rate account.
Chaury says that people had psychological biases that resulted in them earning less interest.
This included overconfidence, loss aversion, and preferring the status quo. Information overload also played a role. We all know that when we are faced with too many options and an overload of information, we are typically overwhelmed. And rather than engage with any complexity, we are likely to default to inaction. And the banks are counting on that behaviour.
Chaury said conditions attached to many accounts – such as minimum monthly deposits or limited withdrawals – could drastically reduce interest, while introductory interest rates were only temporary, typically three to six months.
Banks understand many people will never change their savings account, despite the rate dropping significantly after the introductory period.
Savings rates are littered with fine print (that many people never read), designed to limit the amount of interest a bank has to pay its customers, from balance-based rate tiers, age minimums and maximums, and monthly bonus rate conditions.
There are millions of big bank online saver customers who signed up for an introductory rate five or ten years ago, which gave them a higher interest rate for the first few months or so and have now been earning next to nothing for years because they haven’t been bothered to switch to a more competitive account.
Australians aren’t the only ones confused about their Savings Accounts.
The largest cybersecurity breach in Australian history
Cybersecurity experts say the highly sensitive data of 12.9 million Australians, stolen from eScripts provider Medi Secure, has already been sold on the dark web and is up for sale again.
MediSecure confirmed in May it was the victim of a ransomware attack in 2023 and last week revealed the scale of the breach, which puts it among the largest in Australian history.
Data stolen includes names, phone numbers, addresses, and Medicare numbers, as well as sensitive medical information such as which drugs people had been prescribed and why they were taking them. It was previously unclear if the data had been sold, but cyber threat intelligence analysts say there’s a strong indication that at least one sale has taken place.
Cheers,
Jacquie
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
July 24, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHAT AI CAN AND CAN’T DO FOR YOU)
(AAPL), (GOOGL), (AMZN), (AMZN), (TSLA), (NVDA), (MU)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 23, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DON'T SLEEP ON THIS BIOTECH SLEEPER)
(ATHA), (BIIB), (LLY)
To date, 6.7 million Americans over 65 are already wrestling with Alzheimer's, a number set to double by 2050.
It's a demographic disaster, a slow-motion train wreck that Big Pharma's been slow to recognize.
Companies, including Biogen (BIIB) and Eli Lilly (LLY), working on this are still fiddling with amyloid plaques and tangled proteins, like a plumber trying to fix a leaky nuclear reactor with duct tape.
But one scrappy biotech outfit, Athira Pharma (ATHA), is taking a different tack. They're not chasing the same old tired targets.
Instead, they're looking at the brain's own repair mechanisms, trying to kickstart the engine instead of just patching up the exhaust. It's a high-risk, high-reward play, but isn't that what makes this game so damn exciting?
Athira targets the neurotrophic hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) and its sidekick, the MET receptor. Don't let the fancy names fool you - these little fellas are the unsung heroes of your noggin.
Think of HGF and MET as the brain's maintenance crew. They're not just sitting around twiddling their thumbs. They're constantly on the job, patching up neurons and keeping the lights on upstairs.
Athira's betting the farm that if they can juice up this dynamic duo, they might just be able to slow down the Alzheimer's wrecking ball, or heck, maybe even throw it in reverse.
It's a bold move, I'll give 'em that. While everyone else is trying to sweep up the mess Alzheimer's leaves behind, Athira's aiming to stop the party before it even starts.
If they're right, it could be like discovering fire all over again in the world of neuroscience.
Speaking of which, Athira's lead drug, fosgonimeton (try saying that three times fast), just hit a milestone that's got Wall Street perking up its ears. They've wrapped up dosing in their Phase 2/3 LIFT-AD trial for mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's.
We're talking about 315 patients who've been getting daily shots of this stuff (or a placebo) for 26 weeks. It's like a six-month-long neuroscience party, and we're all waiting to see who's left standing when the lights come on.
Interestingly, Athira's playing it smart with their ongoing Phase 2/3 LIFT-AD trial. They're using something called the Global Statistical Test (GST) as their primary endpoint. It's like they're giving themselves better odds at the casino.
This GST is designed to catch even the slightest whiff of a clinically meaningful treatment effect. It's like using a finely-tuned bloodhound instead of a myopic poodle to find your car keys.
And here's another thing that caught my attention: 85% of the folks from their trials signed up for the after-party - the open-label extension study. That's like people sticking around to help clean up after a rager.
When was the last time you saw that kind of enthusiasm for anything, let alone a clinical trial?
But Athira isn't content with just one target. They've also got fosgonimeton in the ring against Parkinson's with their SHAPE trial.
This Phase 2 slugfest has already shown some positive jabs on cognitive measures for patients with Parkinson's disease dementia and Dementia with Lewy bodies.
And because apparently two fights aren't enough, Athira's also thrown fosgonimeton into the ALS arena. This early-stage trial is like watching a fighter warming up in the gym - we don't know how it'll play out, but the potential is intriguing.
So, what’s next? Well, we’re now staring down the barrel of what could be the biggest shakeup in Alzheimer's research since... well, since we started researching Alzheimer's.
Athira's betting big on their HGF/MET approach, and if it pays off, we might be looking at the medical equivalent of striking oil in your backyard.
Mark your calendars for the end of Q3 2024. That's when we'll find out if fosgonimeton is the real McCoy or just another pie-in-the-sky biotech dream. And don't forget the fireworks show in Madrid this October - Athira's set to strut their stuff at the Alzheimer's conference, and you can bet your bottom dollar I'll be watching.
Global Market Comments
July 23, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SOME SAGE ADVICE ON ASSET ALLOCATION)
Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day, which I absolutely cannot answer.
The reason is simple: no two investors are alike.
The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $1 billion, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, are in the top or the bottom tax bracket, and so on.
This is something you should ask your financial advisor if you haven’t fired him already, which you probably should.
Having said all that, there is one old hard and fast rule, which you should probably follow.
It is prudent to own your age in bonds. So, if you were 70, you should have had 70% of your assets in fixed-income instruments and 30% in equities.
That’s a lot easier to do today because 90-day T-bills yield an astonishing 5.4% while ten-year bonds bring in 3.6%.
You can also add high dividend-paying stocks for bonds. You can get 5% a year or more in yields these days, and get a great inflation hedge, to boot. Crown Castle International (CCI) is now paying a 5.5% dividend and last time I checked they are still building 5G cell phone towers, (CCI)’s specialty.
You will also own what everyone else in the world is trying to buy right now, high growth US stocks, the big FANG’s.
You will get this higher return at the expense of higher volatility. So just turn the TV off on the down days so you won’t get panicked out at the bottom.
That is until we hit the next recession. Then all bets are off.
I hope this helps.
John Thomas
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
It's Time for the Wakeup Call