(AAPL) Archives

Is an Apple Short the Trade of the Year?

When Apple (AAPL) made its three day, $50 move up last week, it created $55 billion in new market capitalization. That 72 hour addition alone would rank it as the 100th largest company in the world besides Boeing (BA), Union Pacific Railroad (UNP), and Nike (NKE). Trading volume in Apple calls is has smashed all records. The action has been more frenzied than seen in any single name since the height of the dotcom bubble 12 years ago.

I tried to take a bite out of Apple, selling 20% deep out of the money, front month calls. It looked clever for exactly two weeks. Instead, Apple took a bite out of me. When the appreciation suddenly accelerated on no news specific to Apple, implied volatility for the options popped from 30% to 40% in an hour, and I got stopped out.

Moves like this are unprecedented in the history of the options market. I know people who are doubling their money every week, buying out of the money Apple weekly calls, and rolling their way all the way up, knowing full well that their last trade will result in a total loss.

So that got me to thinking. Is the greatest shorting opportunity of the year setting up here? I started playing around with some numbers when Steve Jobs? creation hit $600 a share yesterday. I looked at the April, 2012 put series, which expire in 25 trading days, on April 20. Then, the $500 puts were trading at $2.00. What would happen if the stock fell? I did some back of the envelop calculations and came up with the following:

Apple Option
Fall??? Price?????? % Gain
$10??? $2.50???????? 25%
$20??? $3.25???????? 62%
$30??? $4.50???????? 125%
$40??? $6.00???????? 300%
$50??? $8.00???????? 400%
$60??? $10.50?????? 425%
$70??? $13.75?????? 587%
$80??? $17.75?????? 787%
$90??? $22.25?????? 1012%
$100? $27.50?????? 1275%

I thought ?well, that?s pretty interesting?, and set to write up a Trade Alert to buy the $500 puts. But by the time I finished writing it, Apple fell $25 and the puts doubled. I missed the entry point so I decided to wait.

I love Apple stock, and it now looks like it will hit my long term $1,000 target sooner than later. I have been filling up my house with Apple gadgets as fast as I can, like everyone else, picking up an iPhone, a MacBook Pro, and a MacBook Air. The ecstatic people on TV this morning piling into Apple stores at the crack of dawn to buy the new iPad behave like they?re just won the lottery.

But I also know what a parabolic stock move looks like on the charts, and I have never seen them end in anything but tears. At some point they end, falling back down to a trend line, even if that trend remains up. The volume on the downside is even greater than on the upside. I image that quite a lot of the recent buying has been on margin or with huge leverage. Apple stock is cruising for a bruising, and no one would be surprised to see a sudden $100 sell off.

I?ll tell you when to put on this trade. Wait for the next three day, $50 spike, and then commit 1% or 2% of your capital, no more. You are looking to risk 1% to make 10%, not 100% to make 1,000%. I frequently get resumes from those who tried the later and are now unemployed, and believe me, you don?t want to try this.

Of course, it is possible that the final $50 spike is behind us, in which case this entire discussion has been academic. But it is still a good exercise to carry out to learn what is possible. And since St. Patrick?s Day is upon us, you might want to down a quick shot of Irish whiskey first, neat, if you end up doing the trade.

Sign of a Top?

The Looking Glass Market

Diary

If you feel like this market has sucked you down a rabbit hole, you have plenty of company.

I have never seen such a profusion of contrary cross market indicators. Traders are running up shares prices while companies are cutting earnings forecasts. Economists are raising GDP forecasts as rising energy prices are taking them the opposite direction. Natural gas is crashing as oil spikes up.

The bond market has gone catatonic, with billions pouring into bond mutual funds to keep them on life support. Dr. Copper, that great leading indicator of global economic activity, has gone to sleep, with investors pouring money into the entire spectrum of risk assets. An increasing share of the buying in equity markets is focusing on a single stock, Apple (AAPL), the world?s largest company.

They say the market climbs a wall of worry. This one is climbing the Great Wall of China. You have to assume that the people buying stocks here are doing so only for the very long term, Warren Buffet style, and are willing to look past any declines we may see this summer. They don?t care if the market drops 5%, 20% (my pick), or 50%.

In my new year Annual Asset Class Review I thought that markets might peak in January. I lied. Thanks to a global quantitative easing program, it is increasingly looking like 2012 will be another ?sell in May and go away? year, the fourth in a row. You might as well book that Mediterranean super yacht, the beach house in the Hamptons, or the bucolic chalet in Switzerland now to beat the rush.

Another ?looking glass? element this year is the extent that last year?s dogs became this year?s divas. Just look no further than Bank of America (BAC), which did a 67% swan dive in 2011, but has soared a blistering 51% this year. This is a stock with a PE multiple of 812 and more investigations underway than Al Capone every saw.

It goes without saying then that those who did terrible in 2011 are looking like stars today. Look no further than hedge fund titan John Paulson, whose flagship fund was down 50% at the low last year, thanks to a big bet on financials. This year it appears his super star status is restored. Other funds that made big bets last year on European stocks and sovereign bonds have been similarly revived. If MF Global had only lasted two more months, John Corzine would be looking like a genius today, instead of a goat.

When I realized that this could be a ?dogs of the Dow? year with a turbocharger, I quickly reviewed by own money losing trades in 2011. That prompted be to rush out but puts on the Japanese yen, which doubled in short order, and haven?t looked back since. Now you really have to ask the question, will my other 2011 losers perform similar turnarounds? What?s at the top of the list? The (TBT), my bet that long term Treasury bonds would go down, which inflicted my biggest hickey last year.

By the way, I?m kind of liking the volatility ETF (VXX) here. If the markets keep going up forever you might lose 10%. If they don?t, you will make a quick 30%, and 100% if volatilities return to the highs seen in October. The cost of carry is modest, there is no time decay as with options, and there is no contango. In fact, near month volatility is trading at half the levels of long term volatility. That is the kind of risk/reward ratio that I am constantly looking for.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Long Term Model Portfolio

Diary

I am frequently asked to propose a long term portfolio that investors can just buy and forget about. They have no interest in sitting on the edge of their seat waiting for my next trade alert, staying up all night to catch the European opening, or scanning every wire service headline to glean a momentary trading edge.

I have put together a model portfolio that achieves exactly that. It focuses on the major trends sweeping the global economy that should run for a few decades or more. Regular readers of this letter are already well aware of these themes, and probably mumble them in their sleep.

Rising standards of living in emerging markets are certain to lead to major shortages in every type of commodity. These include food, precious metals, base metals, and all forms of energy. There is no way to avoid this shortfall, as the population is growing faster than our ability to bring on new sources of supply, which often take five years or more.

I have a big slug of exposure to specific emerging markets where GDP growth rates are triple or more than America?s own pathetic 2% rate. There is also a heavy weighting in America?s premier technology companies. Since the industry is literally on my front door step, it is clear to me that technological innovation is accelerating and will have a leveraged effect on our future, and that the US has an overwhelming lead. If you don?t believe me, then just try to hire an engineer in Silicon Valley, or find a reasonable rental in Palo Alto or Mountain View.

This would be the ideal portfolio for those who intend to lock it up for a long time. It would be a great use of funds that will not be needed for college educations that are 18 years into the future, or a retirement that is 40 years out on the horizon. It has an aggressive growth element to it, so it is ideal for the younger investing class.

I am not by any means suggesting that you run out and buy this portfolio today. Wait for a substantial sell off in the markets before sticking in your toe. One of the reasons that I keep high cash positions is so that I can buy names like these on the big dips. October 4, 2011 would have been a great day to load the boat, but only if you went into that day with cash coming out of your ears.

The portfolio is only available to paid up members of Global Trading Dispatch or my daily premium newsletter. To download the excel spreadsheet with the names, ticker symbols and asset class weighting, please click here, and enter your user ID and password.

Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011. The service includes my Trade Alert Service, daily newsletter, real time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea data base, and live, biweekly strategy webinars. To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com , find the Global Trading Dispatch box on the right, and click on the lime green ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.

No, I?m Not Telling You What?s in the Portfolio

Use Apple Timing to Short Bank of America Stock

Diary

There is a method to my madness.

It?s all about Apple (AAPL). A disproportionate share of the market volume has been pouring into Apple shares for the past two weeks. The higher it went, the more people wanted to buy. Just in the past week, the company has tacked on a staggering $75 billion in market capitalization. The action in the call options has been absolutely explosive.

The focus of the US stock market distilled down to not just a single sector, but a single stock. This kind of concentrated price action is a classic indicator of a market top. When Apple rolls over, the rest of the market will follow it down. Apple has pulled this off while virtually every other asset class is showing their own topping formations, including most other stocks, the euro, the yen, copper, gold, silver, and even the ags.

When I started my February 15 webinar at 12:00 noon EST, Apple was going gangbusters, up $15 to $525. By the time I finished, it had plunged $15, suggesting the short term top is in for the sizzling, innovative company. A rumor swept the market that Apple?s weighting in the NASDAQ would be diluted once again, which would be highly negative for the share price.

So am I going to sell short Apple stock? Heavens no! I love Steve Jobs? creation. I still think it will hit my long term target of $1,000 sooner than later. In fact, I just bought a new solid state MacBook Pro with all the specs maxed out and I am picking up my IPhone 4s on Friday.

Instead, I am going to use Apple as the signal for my cross market timing, and then short a stock I hate, Bank of America (BAC). This is one of the top performing stocks of 2012, soaring some 50%, in six weeks. Despite that move, it is still trading at a huge discount to book, meaning that traders think the company is lying through its teeth about the true extent of its loan losses.? Its shares are beating Apple by an almost 2:1 ratio this year, which has jumped only 28%. How perverse is that? The two companies are almost mirror images of each other. Think future versus past, booming versus broke, good versus evil, $525 versus $8.

The best run hedge funds use this type of cross market signaling all the time. I saw it constantly on the trading floor of Morgan Stanley. It is a great way to capture laggards and move into the highest beta names when a market reversal is imminent.

When I am in a selling mood, I want to sell the most expensive stock in the market that has had the most blistering recent gains. That describes (BAC) to a tee, which is nowhere near solving its structural problems and still has a declining real estate market to deal with.

I chose to buy puts on (BAC) instead of the (SPY) because you always get much greater volatility in individual names than an index has a whole. Look at (BAC)?s performance this year. A 7% rise in the (SPY) brought a 50% gain in (BAC). That kind of volatility works on the downside too. A single stock will outperform a basket every time. That?s how you maximize your bang per buck on the put options.

Check Out Bank Of America?s New Logo

Watch Out for the Bear Trap

Diary

The volatility index (VIX) is just not buying this sell off. Even with the Dow down over 300 today, the (VIX) has only managed a meager 3% gain on the day. With a move in equities of this magnitude, you would expect volatility to rise by 15% or more. If traders and investors really believed that the risk markets were really going to crash to new lows, they would be paying through the nose to buy downside protection, which would be clearly visible in a (VIX) spike. These figures prove they aren?t.

Let?s do a quickie cross asset class review here and look at what else on the table. The S&P 500 is precisely at the 50% retracement of the entire 200 point move up from October 4. It could hold this level and keep the bull move intact. While junk bonds (HYG) are down, they are nowhere near the levels suggesting that a financial collapse is imminent. Advance decline ratios are at all-time highs, not exactly an argument for a new bear market. Nor are Treasury bonds drinking the Kool-Aide. Sure they are up today, but not as much as they should be.

It all has the makings of an asymmetric trade for me. That means that the next piece of good news will deliver a larger move up than the next piece of bad news will bring a down one. So a tactical long here will bring an outsized returns. It could well be that the failure of the Super committee is fully in the price, and the mere passage of the deadline might bring a big rally. There are certainly a lot of hedge funds looking to chase yearend performance and value players happy to bottom fish to pull this off.

The bulls also have the calendar strongly in their favor. Not only is the November-December period the second strongest bimonthly period of the year, investors are massively underweight equities. As I never tire in explaining to my permabear friends, most investors can?t sell stock they don?t own. That?s why the Armageddon scenario never kicked in during September. That leaves hedge funds and high frequency trading alone to break the downside supports, something they have so far been unable to do alone.

Which girls will get invited to the next dance? The same ones taken to the last one: commodities, energy, rail, coal, and technology stocks, especially Apple, which is sitting bang on its 200 day moving average today.

Of course I could be wrong about all of this. Conditions in the markets are so uncertain here that there are no real high quality trades to be found. Almost everyone is posting negative returns this year, including some of the smartest people I know. That?s why I have pared back my own trading in order to preserve my own 42% year to date gain. But then, I am 75% in cash, so I can afford to take a relaxed view of things.

Only trade here if your wife is pestering you for a larger Christmas shopping budget. Don?t even think about opening up a new short here, because you have already missed the big, easy move. Then again, you could consider getting a new wife. It might be cheaper.

Goodbye Steve Jobs, Hello Dividend?

Newsletter

Analysts continue to be stunned by the rate at which cash is rolling into Apple (AAPL). At current cash flows, the company?s hoard is expected to grow from $81 billion to $120 billion by next June, an increase of nearly $200 million a day!

So far, the company has resisted every entreaty to part with some of this dosh, either through a share buyback or a dividend. Now some are speculating that the passing of founder, Steve Jobs, and the succession of new CEO, Tim Cook, could lead to a loosening of the purse strings.

Let?s face it. Apple has had a great, decade long run. Hundreds of my readers, many of them Apple employees, are faced with the enviable problem that, having ridden the stock up from $4 to $400, they have too much of their wealth concentrated in a single asset. That is never a good idea from a risk control point of view. But every time I look for reasons to sell Apple, I find three more reasons to buy it. It?s a case of the grass being greener on my side of the fence.

Let me list just a few avenues for continued meteoric performance:

*As the Apple generation reaches the ranks of senior management, more Fortune 500 companies will begin to support their products. Thousands would love to quit carrying around a Blackberry for business and an incompatible IPhone for personal use, with the associated chargers. (note to self: short (RIMM) on the next rally).

*Despite this torrid growth, the stock trades at a discount to the S&P 500 at 12 times earnings.

*The Apple of today is essentially a spanking brand new, high growth company. The company?s only decrepit product is the IMac. The IPhone is only 5-6 years old, while the Ipad and Ap Store are only 1-2 years old and still in their infancy. The potential near term growth of these products is huge.

*IPhones only have a 5% penetration of the world market. Past market leaders like Nokia (NOK)? and Motorola (MOT) have reached market shares well into double digits.

*Apple is just scratched the surface in China, where it only has six official stores (but lots of fake imitators), and is already the premium product.? The growth opportunities there are massive. Everyone there wants an IPhone, and they are traveling to Hong Kong to get them.

*There was always a fear of what would happen to Apple stock after Steve Jobs was gone. That is now behind us. In the wine bars around the company?s futuristic Cupertino, California headquarters at One Infinite Loop, I am hearing that Steve left behind enough new product ideas, improvements, upgrades, and direction to keep Apple forging ahead for another five years. The vast, interlocking, synergistic ecosystem he envisioned is still maturing.

It all reinforces my view that Apple shares will reach my long term target of $1,000 sooner than anyone thinks. It is already trading places with Exxon (XOM) as the world?s largest company and most profitable company on an almost weekly basis. At $1,000, Apple would boast a market value of $930 billion, accounting for 7.5% of total US stock market capitalization, and 40% of NASDAQ.

What if multiples expand, as they should? Take Apple stock up to its past peak multiple of 36, and the company would be worth $2.8 trillion and rank 5th in the world in GDP, more than France, and just behind German. Wow!

Goodbye Steve Jobs, Hello Dividend?

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