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Tag Archive for: (AMZN)

MHFTF

November 19, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 19, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or MASS EVACUATION)
(SPY), (WMT), (NVDA), (EEM), (FCX), (AMZN), (AAPL), (FCX), (USO), (TLT), (TSLA), (CRM), (SQ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-19 03:07:342018-11-19 03:03:13November 19, 2018
MHFTF

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Mass Evacuation

Diary, Newsletter

I will be evacuating the City of San Francisco upon the completion of this newsletter.

The smoke from the wildfires has rendered the air here so thick that it has become unbreathable. It reminds me of the smog in Los Angeles I endured during the 1960s before all the environmental regulation kicked in. All Bay Area schools are now closed and anyone who gets out of town will do so.

There has been a mass evacuation going on of a different sort and that has been investors fleeing the stock market. Twice last week we saw major swoons, one for 900 points and another for 600. Look at your daily bar chart for the year and the bars are tiny until October when they suddenly become huge. It’s really quite impressive.

Concerns for stocks are mounting everywhere. Big chunks of the economy are already in recession, including autos, real estate, semiconductors, agricultural, and banking. The FANGs provided the sole support in the market….until they didn’t. Most are down 30% from their tops, or more.

In fact, the charts show that we may have forged an inverse head and shoulders for the (SPY) last week, presaging greater gains in the weeks ahead.

The timeframe for the post-midterm election yearend rally is getting shorter by the day. What’s the worst case scenario? That we get a sideways range trade instead which, by the way, we are perfectly positioned to capture with our model trading portfolio.

There are a lot of hopes hanging on the November 29 G-20 Summit which could hatch a surprise China trade deal when the leaders of the two great countries meet. Daily leaks are hitting the markets that something might be in the works. In the old days, I used to attend every one of these until they got boring.

You’ll know when a deal is about to get done with China when hardline trade advisor Peter Navarro suddenly and out of the blue gets fired. That would be worth 1,000 Dow points alone.

It was a week when the good were punished and the bad were taken out and shot. Wal-Mart (WMT) saw a 4% hickey after a fabulous earnings report. NVIDIA (NVDA) was drawn and quartered with a 20% plunge after they disappointed only slightly because their crypto mining business fell off, thanks to the Bitcoin crash.

Apple (AAPL) fell $39 from its October highs, on a report that demand for facial recognition chips is fading, evaporating $170 billion in market capitalization. Some technology stocks have fallen so much they already have the next recession baked in the price. That makes them a steal at present levels for long term players.

The US dollar surged to an 18-month high. Look for more gains with interest rates hikes continuing unabated. Avoid emerging markets (EEM) and commodities (FCX) like the plague.

After a two-year search, Amazon (AMZN) picked New York and Virginia for HQ 2 and 3 in a prelude to the breakup of the once trillion-dollar company. The stock held up well in the wake of another administration antitrust attack. 

Oil crashed too, hitting a lowly $55 a barrel, on oversupply concerns. What else would you expect with China slowing down, the world’s largest marginal new buyer of Texas tea? Are all these crashes telling us we are already in a recession or is it just the Fed’s shrinkage of the money supply?

The British government seemed on the verge of collapse over a Brexit battle taking the stuffing out of the pound. A new election could be imminent. I never thought Brexit would happen. It would mean Britain committing economic suicide.

US Retails Sales soared in October, up a red hot 0.8% versus 0.5% expected, proving that the main economy remains strong. Don’t tell the stock market or oil which think we are already in recession.

My year-to-date performance rocketed to a new all-time high of +33.71%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 35.89%. November so far stands at +4.08%. And this is against a Dow Average that is up a miniscule 2.41% so far in 2018.

My nine-year return ballooned to 310.18%. The average annualized return stands at 34.46%. 2018 is turning into a perfect trading year for me, as I’m sure it is for you.

I used every stock market meltdown to add aggressively to my December long positions, betting that share prices go up, sideways, or down small by then.

The new names I picked up this week include Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Salesforce (CRM), NVIDIA (NVDA), Square (SQ), and a short position in Tesla (TSLA). I also doubled up my short position in the United States US Treasury Bond Fund (TLT).

I caught the absolute bottom after the October meltdown. Will lightning strike twice in the same place? One can only hope. One hedge fund friend said I was up so much this year it would be stupid NOT to bet big now.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter is really shooting the lights out the month, up 8.63%. It picked up Salesforce (CRM), NVIDIA (NVDA), Square (SQ), and Apple (AAPL) last week, all right at market bottoms.

The coming week will be all about October housing data which everyone is expecting to be weak.

Monday, November 19 at 10:00 EST, the Home Builders Index will be out. Will the rot continue? I’ll be condo shopping in Reno this weekend to see how much of the next recession is already priced in.

On Tuesday, November 20 at 8:30 AM, October Housing Starts and Building Permits are released.

On Wednesday, November 21 at 10:00 AM, October Existing Home Sales are published.

At 10:30 AM, the Energy Information Administration announces oil inventory figures with its Petroleum Status Report.

Thursday, November 22, all market will be closed for Thanksgiving Day.

On Friday, November 23, the stock market will be open only for a half day, closing at 1:00 PM EST. Second string trading will be desultory, and low volume.

The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I'd be roaming the High Sierras along the Eastern shore of Lake Tahoe looking for a couple of good Christmas trees to chop down. I have two US Forest Service permits in hand at $10 each, so everything will be legit.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/John-Thomas-Ax.png 375 522 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-19 03:06:042018-11-19 02:57:54The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Mass Evacuation
MHFTF

November 19, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 19, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ROKU’S UNASSAILABLE LEAD)
(TIVO), (ROKU), (NFLX), (AMZN), (CHTR), (DISH), (FB), (AAPL), (GOOGL)

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MHFTF

Roku’s Unassailable Lead

Tech Letter

Shake off the rust.

That is exactly what management of a fast-growing tech company doesn’t want to hear.

Losing money isn’t fun. And investors only put up with it because of the juicy growth trajectories management promises.

Without the expectations of hard-charging growth, there is no attractive story in a world where investors need stories to rally behind.

Setting the bar astronomically high in the approach to management’s execution and product development will always be, the single most important element in a tech company.

This is the secret recipe for thwarting entropy and rising above the rest.

You might be shocked to find out that most tech firms die a harrowing death, the average Joe wouldn’t know that, with constant headlines glorifying our tech dignitaries.

Just look at the pageantry on display that was Amazon’s (AMZN) quest to find a second headquarter.

According to Apex Marketing, the hoopla that coalesced around Amazon’s year-long search netted Amazon $42 million in free advertising by tracking the absorbed inventory of exposure from print, TV, and online.

Social media traffic by itself rung up $8.6 million of freebies.

These days, tech really does sell itself, and I didn’t even mention the billions in tax breaks Amazon will harvest from their Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory style headquarter search.

The only thing I would have changed would have been extending the contest into the second year.

Amazon’s brand is probably the most powerful in the world, and that is not because they are in the business of only selling chocolate bars.

One company that might as well sell chocolate bars and has been stymied by the throes of entropy is TiVo (TIVO).

TiVo was once the darling of the technology world.

It was way back in 1999 when TiVo premiered the digital video recorder (DVR).

It modernized how television was consumed in a blink of an eye.

Broad-based adoption and outstanding product feedback were the beginning of a long love affair with diehard users wooed by the superior functionality of TiVo that allowed customers to record full seasons of television shows, and, the cherry on top, fast-forward briskly through annoying commercials.

The technology was certainly ahead of its time and TiVo had its cake and ate it for years.

The stock price, in turn, responded kindly and TiVo was trading at over $106 in August of 2000 before the dot com crash.

That was the high-water mark and the stock has never performed the same after that.

TiVo’s cataclysmic decline can be traced back to the roots of the late 90’s when a small up and coming tech company called Netflix (NFLX) quickly pivoted from mailing DVD’s to producing proprietary online streaming content.

Arrogant and set in their old ways, TiVo failed to capture the tectonic shift from analog television viewers cutting the cord and migrating towards online streaming services.

Consumer’s viewing habits modernized, and TiVo never developed another game-changing product to counteract the death of a thousand cuts to traditional television and its TiVo box that is still ongoing as I write this.

Like a sitting duck, Charter Communications (CHTR) and Dish Network (DISH) devoured TiVo’s market share in the traditional television segment constructing DVR’s for their own cable service.

And instead of licensing their technology before their enemies could build an in-house substitute, TiVo chose to sue them after the fact, resulting in a one-time payment, but still meant that TiVo was bleeding to death.

Enter Project Griffin.

Netflix (NFLX) spent years developing Project Griffin, an over-the-top (OTT) TV box that would host its future entertainment content and poured a bucket full of capital into the software and hardware of this revolutionary product.

Making the leap of faith from the traditional DVD-by-mail distribution model that would soon be swept into the dustbin of history was an audacious bet that looks even better with each passing year.

This Netflix branded OTT box was specifically manufactured for Netflix’s Watch Instantly video service.

In 2007, Netflix was just week’s away from rolling out the hardware from Project Griffin when CEO of Netflix Reed Hastings decided to trash the project.

His reason was that a branded Netflix box would hinder the software streaming content confining their growth trajectory to only their stand-alone platform.

This would prevent their streaming service to populate on other networks.

To avoid discriminating against certain networks was a genius move allowing Netflix to license digital content to anyone with a broadband connection, and giving them chance to make deals with other companies who had their own box.

It was the defining moment of Netflix that nobody knows about.

Netflix became ubiquitous in many Millennial households and Roku (ROKU) was spun-out literally bestowing new CEO of Roku Anthony Woods with a de-facto company-in-a-box to build on thanks to old boss Reed Hastings.

Woods cut his teeth borrowing TiVo’s technology and developed the digital video recorder (DVR) as the founder of ReplayTV before he joined Netflix and was the team leader of Project Griffin.

Now, he had a golden opportunity dropped into his lap and Woods ran with it.

Woods quickly became aware that hardware wasn’t the future of technology and switched to a digital ad-based platform model allowing any and all streaming services to launch from the Roku box.

No doubt Woods understood the benefits of being an open platform and not playing favorites to certain networks in a landscape where Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), and Amazon have made “walled gardens” an important part of their DNA.

Democratizing its platform was in effect what the internet and technology were supposed to be from the onset and Roku has excavated value from this premise by playing nice with everyone.

This also meant scooping up all the ad dollars from everyone too.

At the same time, Wood’s mentor Hastings has rewritten the rules of the media industry parting the sea for Roku to mop up and dominate the OTT box industry with Amazon and Apple trailing behind.

Roku was perfectly positioned with a superior finished product, but also took note of the future and zigged and zagged when they needed to which is why ad sales have surpassed their hardware sales.

By 2021, over 50 million Americans will say adios to cable and satellite TV.

The addressable digital ad market is a growing $80 billion per year market and Roku will have a more than fair shot to secure larger market share.

The rock-solid foundations and handsome growth story are why the Mad Hedge Technology Letter is resolutely bullish on Roku and Netflix.

Roku and Netflix have continued to evolve with the times and TiVo is now desperately attempting to sell the remains of itself before the vultures feast on their corpse.

What is left is a portfolio of IP assets that brought in $826 million in 2017, and they have exited the hardware business entirely halting production of the iconic TiVo box.

Digesting 100% parabolic moves up in the share price is a great problem to have for Roku and Netflix.

These two are set to lead the online streaming universe and stoked by robust momentum to go with it.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter currently holds a Roku December 2018 $30-$35 in-the-money vertical bull call spread bought at $4.35, and it is just the first of many tech trade alerts that will be connected to the rapidly advancing online streaming industry.

 

 

THE FRUITS OF PROJECT GRIFFIN

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Netflix-hardware.png 443 924 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-19 02:06:442018-11-19 01:56:31Roku’s Unassailable Lead
MHFTF

November 16, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 16, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(RISK CONTROL FOR DUMMIES),
(SPY), (AMZN), (TLT), (CRM), (VXX)

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MHFTF

November 14, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 14, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(I NAILED IT)
(AMZN), (GOOGL), (FDX), (UPS), (JCP)

 

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MHFTF

November 9, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 9, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(PLAYING THE SHORT SIDE WITH VERTICAL BEAR PUT SPREADS), (TLT)
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOESN’T WORK)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)

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MHFTF

It’s All About Software, Software, Software

Tech Letter

If you thought software week at the Mad Hedge Technology Letter was over, you were absolutely wrong.

I have done my best to offer a barrage of cloud-based software stocks with monstrous upside potential that would put any other industry companies six feet under.

Silicon Valley software companies have access to quinine in a mosquito-infested market – digitally savvy talent.

This talent is the best and brightest the world has to offer, and they want to work for a dominant company that gets it.

Much of this involves companies with bright futures, career opportunities galore, solving deep-rooted problems, all applying a treasure trove of data and a mountain of capital your rich uncle would giggle at.

In the short term, I have been succinctly rewarded by my software picks with communication software Twilio (TWLO) rocketing upward 35% intraday at the time of this writing from when I recommended it just a few days ago.

Another Mad Hedge Technology Letter recommendation Zendesk (ZEN), a software company solving customer support tickets across various channels, is up a tame 10% after the election.

All in all, I would desire readers to access due caution as the volatility can bite you badly with crappy entry points, but the upside cannot be denied.

The turbocharged price action means the pivot to software with its new best friend, the software as a service (SaaS) pricing model, encapsulates the outsized profits this industry will rake in going forward.

Without further ado, I’d like to slip in two more companies rounding out a robust quintet of software companies – I bring to you Workday (WDAY) and Service Now (NOW).

Workday is a software company based on a critical component of every successful company – human resources.

Unsurprisingly, human resources are tardy to this wave of software modernization.

Sensibly, companies have chosen short-term software fixes that drive profits with instant success rather than to update its human resource department’s processes.

Big mistake.

I would argue that getting the right people in the doors is paramount and can save substantial time because of the wasted time rooting out toxic employees who weren’t suitable fits.

Ultimately, I have concluded the worst-case scenario entails the enterprise resource planning market stagnating driving minimal growth to the cloud, however, this minimal growth would be substantial enough for Workday to outperform.

The landscape as of now only involves several vendors with a competitive (SaaS) solution auguring well for Workday allowing them to capture a further chunk of market share.

Workday’s growth metrics back up my thesis with its businesses posting a 3-year EPS growth rate of 291% and a 3-year sales growth rate of 36%, painting a picture of a company that will turn profitable in the next few years.

They can even showboat their glittering array of heavy-hitting customers who purchase their software that include Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Bank of America (BAC).

The one headwind tarnishing these types of software companies is the stock-based compensation awarded to employees.

SBC rose 21% YOY and is slightly worrying in an otherwise stellar company. This method of compensation only works when the stock is rising and is a major issue for new Facebook (FB) hires who will prefer cash over its burnt-out share price.

If Workday doesn’t whet your appetite, then how about sampling a main dish of ServiceNow.

This company completes technology service management tasks offering a centralized service catalog for workers to request technology services or information about applications and processes that are being used in the system.

Admirably, this software helps IT workers fix IT system problems which in this day and age is useful considering the bottleneck of chaos many tech and non-tech companies face.

And more often than not, the chaos inundates the in-house IT departments causing the whole business to go offline.

Putting out digital fires is a perpetual business that will never flame out.

As websites and enterprise systems become more complicated, a bombardment of errors are prone to crop up and instant remedies are crucial to carrying out businesses in a time sensitive manner.

Even ask the best tech company in the universe Amazon (AMZN), whose move off Oracle’s (ORCL) database software was the ultimate reason for a serious outage in one of its biggest warehouses on this past Amazon Prime Day, according to Amazon’s internal documents.

The faux paux underscores the hurdles Amazon and other companies could face as they seek to move completely off the Oracle legacy database software whose development has stayed relatively stagnant for a generation.

The slipup was minutes and snowballed into excruciating hours on Amazon Prime Day resulting in over 15,000 delayed packages and roughly $90,000 in wasted labor costs.

Crikey!

These numbers didn’t even consider the wasted man-hours spent by developers troubleshooting and solving the errors or any potential lost sales.

When these mammoth tech giants are running at an incredible scale, a small blip can result in job losses, lost revenue, lost time, a slew of IT engineer sackings, and for some smaller companies, an existential crisis.

The large-scale acts as a powerful multiplier to the lost resources and cost, and as you can see with the Amazon debacle, a few hours can make or break a developer’s career.

Fortunately, IT budgets are higher up the food chain than human resource budgets while more than inching up every year. This is the main reason why I believe ServiceNow will outperform Workday.

The proof is in the pudding and when I scrutinize various metrics, the truth is filtered out.

ServiceNow’s quarterly growth rate is 35% which is higher than Workday’s who slipped back to 28% last quarter even though the 3-year growth rate is in the mid-30%.

Put mildly, accelerating sales growth is better than decelerating sales growth.

Both companies have a market cap in the low $30 billion and almost identical annual sales in the $2 billion range.

However, ServiceNow presides over significantly higher quarterly profit margins than Workday and will achieve profitability sooner than Workday.

In short, Workday loses more money than ServiceNow.

I believe in the underlying thesis of HR modernization underpinning Workday’s rapidly growing revenue and this secular trend is here to stay.

But I much rather put my hard-earned money on a company tied to IT modernization which is imminent and harder to put on the backburner because of its strategic position at the forefront of the tech curve.

HR CAN be put on the backburner and kept analog longer, and as the economy inches closer to a recession, this expense will be shifted further away from greener pastures supported by the fact that companies decelerate hiring new talent in poor economic environments.

To wrap it up, I do believe ServiceNow is the Burmese python consuming a cow, but that doesn’t mean I am bearish on Workday.

Workday will flourish, just not as much on a relative basis as ServiceNow.

Effectively, these stocks are well placed to move higher even after the violent moves upward this year. As the economic cycle moves further into the late innings, the importance of cloud-based software companies will become magnified further.

As for the software week at the Mad Hedge Technology letter, these solid five picks will offer deep insight into one of the most compelling parts of the internet sector.

As many observers have found out, not all tech firms are created equal and that is made even trickier with the existence of the vaunted FANGs who are the real Burmese python in the current tech landscape.

 

 

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MHFTF

November 5, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 5, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS A NEW ALL TIME HIGH),
(AAPL), (FB), (RHT), (GE), (VXX), (AMZN), (SPY), (IWM), (CRM)

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MHFTF

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits a New All Time High

Diary, Newsletter

I used to do a lot of skydiving from 20,000 feet. There’s nothing like a freefall, feeling the wind rip at your jumpsuit as you plunge towards the earth at terminal velocity of 125 miles per hour. In the beginning, the ground looks very far away. Then it suddenly gets very close, very fast.

I used to do this during the 1960s with WWII surplus silk parachutes with a “double L” cut. You hit the ground like a ton of bricks. Sometimes, we’d swing back and forth from the wings of the airplane before letting go just to have fun and freak out the pilot who had no chute.

Over time, you develop a very accurate sense of how fast the ground is approaching and when to pull the ripcord. If you’re wrong, you die.

That’s how I felt when markets went into freefall last Monday. However, after a half-century of trading, I have a highly developed sense of where the bottom is.

So, I piled on the “bet the ranch” longs in technology stocks and shorts in the bond market right at the absolute bottom. And to make sure everyone to a man got in, shares swooshed down one final time when rumors spread that Trump was escalating the trade war with China once again.

By Wednesday morning, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader model portfolio had booked its largest two day gain since the inception of this letter 11 years ago, some 12%. By miracle of miracles, we ended up positive for October, virtually the only one to do so in the entire hedge fund industry.

I would like to think that 50 years of toil in the markets is finally starting to pay off for me. The truth is, the harder I work, the luckier I get.

Stocks lost $2 trillion in market value in October, off 6.9%. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? Tech took the worst hit in a decade, with many favorites down 20%-30%.

I am raising as much cash as I can ahead of the Midterm Elections tomorrow. Democrats seizing the House of Representatives is priced into the market already.

If the Republicans end up keeping the House, you can count on at least a 1,000-point rally in the Dow Average in the next few days as the door is now open for more tax cuts, more deregulation, and more deficit spending.

If the Democrats end up taking both the Senate and the House you can look for a 1,000 point drop in the Dow. That would bring on a huge “flight to safety” bid in the bond market and yet another opportunity to sell short at great prices.

Either way, I want more dry powder with which to take advantage of any extreme moves that may take place. “Extreme” seems to be the order of the day.

By the way, we are so far in the money with our remaining positions that even with a 1,000 point drop we should still reap the maximum profit with the November 16 option expiration in only 9 trading days.

Not that it matters, but October Nonfarm Payroll Report came in at a red-hot 250,000. The headline Unemployment Rate remained at a two-decade low at 3.7%. The Broader U-6 “Discouraged worker” unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 7.4%.

For the first time in yonks, no sector lost jobs last month. HealthCare added 36,000 jobs, Manufacturing 32,000 jobs, and Leisure & Hospitality 42,000 jobs.

However, the real blockbuster was that Average Hourly Earnings exploded to a 3.1% YOY rate, the highest in ten years. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, this is what inflation looks like, up close and ugly.

The number immediately knocked the wind out of the bond market taking it to a new low for the year. Yes, this is what double short positions in bonds are all about. I saw this coming a mile off.

The backdrop for the bond market is looking worse than ever. The budget deficit is about to break $1 trillion for the first time since the 2009 crash. Rising interest rates mean the government’s debt burden is about to grow by leaps and bounds, eventually becoming its largest expenditure.

The US Treasury is hitting the markets daily with massive new issuance, and the Chinese are dumping what US bonds they have to support the Yuan, now at a ten-year low. This is what Armageddon looks like in slow motion.

Last week was dominated by a China trade war that was on again, then off, then on one more time. The stock market ratcheted four-digit figures every time this happened.

Apple (AAPL) announced record profits yet again but countered with cautious forward sales guidance. Social media pariah Facebook (FB) delivered an earnings report beyond all expectations popping the stock $10.

IBM took over Red Hat (RHT) for $33 billion, the third largest merger in history. It’s too little too late for Big Blue as the stock falls on the news. It all reeks of a “Hail Mary.”

General Electric (GE) cut its dividend from 12 cents a share to one cent after reporting a breathtaking $22.8 billion loss. The Feds have opened a criminal investigation into accounting practices. This may define the final bottom in the stock. Take another look at those long-term LEAPS.

My year-to-date performance rocketed to a new all-time high of +33.17%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 37.57%. October finished at +1.24% and that includes an ill-fated -4.23% loss in the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX).

And this is against a Dow Average that is up a miniscule 1.9% so far in 2018. So far in November, we are up an eye-popping +3.54%.

Incredible as it may seem, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has been up 18 consecutive months. That’s what you pay for and that’s what you’re getting. There’s nothing more fulfilling in life than making promises to friends, then delivering in spades.

As the market collapses, I scaled into longs in Amazon (AMZN), the S&P 500 (SPY), the Russell 2000 (IWM), and Salesforce (CRM). I used the flight to safety bid in the bond market to double up my short position there, and am kicking myself for not going triple weight.

My nine-year return ballooned to 309.64%. The average annualized return stands at 34.72%. 
 
All the BSDs are done reporting Q3 earnings and only a few tag ends are left to report. The carnage is over until we restart the cycle once again in February. In any case, economic data pales in comparison to the election in terms of market impact.

On Monday, November 5 at 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index is out.

On Tuesday, November 6 is Election Day. Trading will be a subdued affair and the results will start coming out at 11:00 EST after the west coast polls close.

On Wednesday, October 24 we have the election aftermath to deal with. Up 1,000, down 1,000, or unchanged, who knows?

At 10:30 AM the Energy Information Administration announces oil inventory figures with its Petroleum Status Report.

Thursday, October 25 at 8:30, we get Weekly Jobless Claims. The Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates but will take no action.

On Friday, October 26, at 8:30 AM, the October Producer Price Index is out, an important read on inflation.

The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I made a massive amount of money personally in the October crash. I am going to plop down $150,000 and buy a brand new Tesla Model X for myself. The ashtrays are full on the old one, and besides, there is a tiny nick in the windshield from driving up to Lake Tahoe. I hear the new one has new “Summon” technology that allows it to drive into a parking lot by itself and drive around until it finds an empty space, then back into it, all untouched by human hands.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Knowing When You Hit the Ground is Crucial

 

My New Wheels

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/New-Wheels-nov5.png 422 564 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2018-11-05 05:31:312018-11-05 05:34:44The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits a New All Time High
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