Global Market Comments
October 29, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE COMING 2018 REPLAY),
(TLT), (SPY), (VIX), (VXX), (AAPL),
(FB), (AMZN), (NFLX), (TESLA),
(A COW-BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)
Global Market Comments
October 29, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE COMING 2018 REPLAY),
(TLT), (SPY), (VIX), (VXX), (AAPL),
(FB), (AMZN), (NFLX), (TESLA),
(A COW-BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)
If you missed 2018, you get to do it all over again. That’s what the major indexes are offering us after giving up all of this year’s gains, and then some.
We go into the coming week with markets giving their most oversold readings since the popping of the 2000 Dotcom bubble and the 1987 crash. Markets are shouting imminent recession loud and clear.
Except that markets have discounted 13 out of the last six recessions and it is currently discounting one of those non-recessions.
Here is my calendar of upcoming potential market bottoms. Please note that all are within the next seven trading days.
October 29-reversal day of the Friday selloff.
October 31-rebalancing of funds will require a large amount of equity buying for month end. Facebook (FB) reports.
November 1-the Apple (AAPL) earnings are out.
November 7-the midterm elections.
There is no way that we are going into a recession and a bear market now. That is 2019 business. Bear markets don’t begin with real interest rates at zero which they are at now (3.1% ten-year Treasury yield – 3.1% inflation rate = zero). And they may well still be at zero in a year (4% ten-year Treasury yield – 4% inflation rate= zero).
Earnings are still great in the technology area, 50% of the national total. The Dotcom market top was characterized by the collection of vast numbers of eyeballs, not actual cash.
This means that you want to buy the big dips. This is the best entry point for blue-chip technology stocks since 2015. With a price earnings multiple now at 14.9 times 2019 earnings, stocks have given up half the valuation gains since the 2009 market bottom IN A MONTH!
Global trade is collapsing. There is no doubt that businesses massively pulled forward orders to beat the administration’s punitive import duties, thus artificially boosting the Q3 GDP numbers.
The chickens will come to roost in Q1 2019 which is what the stock market may be screaming at us right now with its nightmarish price action.
The big print of the week was the Q3 GDP at 3.5%, down substantially from the 4.2% figure for Q2. That may be the last hot number we see for many years as the tax cuts and spending burst wear off. Next year we return to the long-term average of 2.5%...I hope. If I’m wrong we’ll see zero growth in 2019.
Tesla (TSLA) announced a profit for the first time since 2016, sending the shares soaring. The stock is back up to the level that prevailed before Elon Musk’s last nervous breakdown. Tesla 3’s are flooding the streets of California.
In the meantime, the economic data remains hot with Weekly Jobless Claims still hugging an all-time low at 215,000. But it is all backward-looking data.
Of course, the highlight of the week was the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference which couldn’t have taken place in more ideal conditions. The food was outstanding, the bottles of Caymus cabernet were fast-flowing, and we even had the option of crashing the wedding in the ballroom next door (I saw some incredibly hot distant cousins).
While I lectured away on the prospects for markets and interest rates, children built sandcastles outside on the balmy Tahoe beach 20 feet away. We had a lot of doctors attend this year and I have to admit it was the first time I was offered a colonoscopy in exchange for a newsletter subscription.
Good cheer was had by all and there was a lot of exchanging of trading tips, email addresses, and phone numbers. It is clear the readers are making fortunes with my service. Most have already committed to coming back next year.
My year-to-date performance has faded to a still market-beating 22.37%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 30.68%. October is down -6.02%, despite a gut-punching, nearly instant NASDAQ swoon of 13.7%. Most people will take that in these horrific conditions.
My single stock positions have been money makers, but my short volatility position (VXX), which I put on way too early, was a disaster eating up all of my profits. I bought puts with the (VXX) at $30. It hit an incredible $42 on Friday. That's why you only take on small 5% positions in outright volatility securities.
My nine-year return retreated to 298.84%. The average annualized return stands at 34.58%. Global Trading Dispatch is now only 44 basis points from an all-time high.
The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has done an outstanding job in October, giving back only -0.89% despite having an aggressively long portfolio. It still maintains an impressive annualized 20.31% profit. It almost completely missed the tech meltdown and then went aggressively long our favorite names right at the market bottom.
This coming week will be focused on the trifecta of jobs data and a few blockbuster technology earnings reports.
Monday, October 29 at 8:30 AM, the October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey is out.
On Tuesday, October 30 at 9:00 AM, the Corelogic S&P 500 Case-Shiller Home Price Index is released. Facebook (FB) and FireEye (FEYE) report. earnings.
On Wednesday, October 24 at 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report is published, a read on private hiring.
At 10:30 AM the Energy Information Administration announces oil inventory figures with its Petroleum Status Report.
Thursday, October 25 at 8:30, we get Weekly Jobless Claims. Apple (AAPL) reports.
On Friday, October 26, at 8:30 AM, the October Nonfarm Payroll Report is announced. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 23, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE CLOUD FOR DUMMIES)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (CRM), (ZS)
Global Market Comments
October 22, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or HEADING FOR LAKE TAHOE),
(SPY), (TLT), (VIX), (MSFT), (AMZN), (CRM), (ROKU),
(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!)
There’s nothing like a quickie five-day tour of the Southeast to give one an instant snapshot of the US economy. The economy is definitely overheating and could blow up sometime in 2019 or 2020.
Traffic everywhere is horrendous as drivers struggle to cope with a road system built to handle half the current US population. Service has gotten terrible as workers vacate the lower paid sectors of the economy. Everyone you talk to tells you business is great, from the CEOs down to the Uber drivers.
I managed to miss Hurricane Michael by two days. Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International Airport was busy with exhausted transiting Red Cross workers. The Interstate from Savanna to Atlanta, Georgia was lined with thousands of downed trees. In Houston mountains of debris were evident everywhere, the rotting, soggy remnants of last year’s Hurricane Harvey.
I managed to score all day parking in downtown Atlanta for only $8. I kept the receipt to show my disbelieving friends at home.
Bull markets climb a wall of worry and this one has been no exception. However, the higher we get the greater the demands on the faithful.
Last week saw my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index plunge to an all-time low reading of 4. I back-tested the data and was stunned to discover that October saw the steepest selloff since the 1987 crash, which saw the average crater 21% in one day.
And while evidence of a coming bear market is everywhere, the reality is that stocks can keep rising for another year. Market bottoms are easy to quantify based on traditional valuation measure, but tops are notoriously difficult to call. Look for one more high volume melt up like we saw in January and that should be it.
Real interest rates are still zero (3.2% bond yields – 3.2% inflation), so there is no way this is any more than a short-term correction in a bull market.
The world is still awash in liquidity
The Fed says they’re still raising rates four times in a year no matter what the president says. Look for a 3.25% overnight rate in a year, and 4% for three months funds. If inflation rises to 4% at the same time, real rates will still be at zero.
There certainly has not been a shortage of things to worry about on the geopolitical front. After Saudi Arabia was caught red-handed with video and audio proof of torturing and killing a Washington Post reporter, it threatened to cut off our oil supply and dump their substantial holding of technology stocks.
Tesla made another move towards the mass market by accelerating its release of the $35,000 Tesla 3. Production is now well over 6,000 units a month.
If you had any doubts that housing was now in recession, look no further than the September Existing Home Sales which were down a disastrous 3.5%. In the meantime, the auto industry continues to plumb new depths. In some industries, the recession has already started.
We have been killing it on the trading front. My 2018 year-to-date performance has bounced back to a robust 29.07%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 35.37%. October is up +0.68%, despite a gut-punching, nearly instant NASDAQ swoon of 10.50%. Most people will take that in these horrific conditions.
My single stock positions have been money makers, but my short volatility position (VXX), which I put on early, refuses to go down, eating up much of my profits.
My nine-year return appreciated to 305.54%. The average annualized return stands at 34.58%. Global Trading Dispatch is now only 44 basis points from an all-time high.
The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has done even better, blasting through to a new all-time high at an annualized 26.67%. It almost completely missed the tech meltdown and then went aggressively long our favorite names right at the market bottom.
I’d like to think my 50 years of trading experience is finally paying off, or maybe I’m just lucky. Who knows?
This coming week will be pretty sedentary on the data front, with the Friday Q3 GDP print the big kahuna. Individual company earnings reports will be the main market driver.
Monday, October 22 at 8:30 AM, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is out. 3M (MMM), and Logitech (LOGI) report.
On Tuesday, October 23 at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is published. Juniper Networks (JNPR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and United Technologies report.
On Wednesday, October 24 at 10:00 AM, September New Home Sales will give another read on entry-level housing. At 10:30 AM the Energy Information Administration announces oil inventory figures with its Petroleum Status Report. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Ford Motor (F), and Microsoft (MSFT) report.
Thursday, October 25 at 8:30, we get Weekly Jobless Claims. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Intel (INTC) report.
On Friday, October 26, at 8:30 AM, a new read on Q3 GDP is announced.
The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.
As for me, I am headed up to Lake Tahoe this week to host the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference. The weather will be perfect, the evening temperatures in the mid-twenties, and there is already a dusting of snow on the high peaks. The Mount Rose Ski Resort is honoring the event by opening this weekend.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
October 19, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO BUY TICKETS NOW FOR THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE CONFERENCE FOR OCTOBER 26-27)
(FIVE STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),
(AAPL), (AMZN), (SQ), (ROKU), (MSFT)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 17, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE SPOTIFY REGIME),
(SPOT), (AAPL), (NFLX), (MSFT), (AMZN), (GS)
It’s not earth-shattering to concede that our attention spans have shrunk and as a result, there are unintended consequences.
The various smart devices and other technology vying for a slice of your precious attention have been accepted as the new normal.
Whether it’s binging on Netflix (NFLX) or gaming on a Microsoft Xbox (MSFT), consumers are absorbed obsessively staring into a screen most of the day.
As tech penetrates the core of our existence, the music industry has been the recipient of changes that were hard to fathom just a few years ago.
And as all businesses morph into pseudo-tech enterprises supported by data analytic teams, management is able to unearth some compelling data and utilize it to commercialize the audience.
Spotify (SPOT), the world’s leading music streaming platform, doesn’t monetarily reward music artists unless a stream surpasses a minimum of 30 seconds.
This is just one way that Spotify’s founder and CEO Daniel Ek has changed the music industry.
Think about the implications.
Gone are the elaborate instrumentals to warm listeners up before a catchy chorus hooks you forever.
Songs are entirely front loaded now with the end goal of persuading listeners to not swipe until the 30-second barrier is passed.
Whatever happens after that doesn’t matter – the song might as well go silent because Spotify will pay the artist.
According to Spotify data, Ed Sheeran’s “The Shape of You” is Spotify’s most-streamed song with 1.94 billion listens.
This is just one scant nugget of data in Spotify’s treasure trove of global music data that finely chronicles the state of the music industry and how consumers devour music.
Spotify CFO Barry McCarthy promptly explained the Spotify’s relationship with data and music at the Goldman Sachs’ (GS) Communacopia conference by saying, “The company with the most data wins. The company with the most data insights wins. The company with the engineering culture, software-driven business wins. And that’s the play we’re making.”
In the current tech climate, I will take software over hardware any day of the week.
Hardware sales are a one-off event until the next cycles bring an upgraded iteration which could take years to execute.
Software sales are an annual recurring revenue stream that is as sticky as the software's quality giving hope to company CFO’s of a perpetual income stream.
It doesn’t matter that Spotify isn’t profitable. The end goal isn’t to make money in an industry that is notoriously difficult to combat the royalty expenses eroding 70% of every $1 of revenue.
What has happened is that Spotify is too big to fail and it loves every second of it.
The music industry needs Spotify just as much as Spotify needs the music industry and this awkward partnership is far from a match made in heaven, but it works for the foreseeable future.
It helps that artists, for the most part, have bought into the data-based streaming model.
Music artists have turned into tech-like firms themselves.
Their new goal is to compile an audience then monetize like Spotify itself.
It speaks volumes of how the tech model has penetrated every corner of the world.
Apple (AAPL) is acutely aware of the potency a music streaming service offers and has been investing in Apple Music, its music streaming arm.
Rumors have been swirling that Apple absorbed the entire staff of a music analytics firm called Asaii including the owners, for a tad under $100 million.
This talent grab on the heels of the Shazam purchase indicates that Apple seeks a better understanding of how to curate music playlists and better serve music fans who own Apple devices.
Even though Apple has the second leading music streaming service, they have ceded the battle to Spotify.
CEO of Apple Time Cook is on record saying, “We’re not in it for the money.”
Indirectly, Cook means Apple Music is a loss-making division and he doesn’t care because it is just a small fragment of what makes Apple one of the best companies in the world.
Apple has also commissioned 24 television shows and 2 films costing them $1 billion.
A single billion is peanuts considering the eye-popping amount of Apple’s cash hoard. They can afford to take the long-term view and slowly enhance the ecosystem instead of Spotify whose eggs are all in one basket.
Apple is more concerned about offering iOS users the best experience possible and in return Cook hopes to count on them to use iOS devices for a lifetime.
Apple Music’s biggest weakness is its biggest strength.
In short, Apple music is tailored to the iOS operating system.
If you sign up, the app directs users to sign up for an Apple ID if you do not already have one.
Android lovers have little interest in signing up for Apple Music considering they do not have an Apple device and then must pay $9.99 per month after the introductory 3-month offer expires when Spotify is free. It’s not worth the extra hassle.
It is almost certain that Spotify will enact an Android operating system pivot to build a moat around its business and that is something Apple cannot do.
Spotify will start partnering with Samsung, Microsoft, and the Android-based Asian manufacturers to focus on monetizing the Android audience and make it even more inconvenient for listeners to access Apple Music.
Signing up for Spotify and listening to its ad-free subscription without creating an Apple ID is more appealing.
And after three months, users have the option to continue a free version of Spotify, albeit with digital ads popping up.
This leads me to the belief that there is definitely space for more than one player in the music streaming industry.
Amazon is another tech firm who has a music streaming service but are more concerned if they convert users into prime memberships.
If compiling the most music data wins out, then Spotify is in the lead with its 83 million paid users and 101 million free users.
Apple trails in second place with 50 million users which is still an extraordinary number of listeners and easily monetizable.
The way music streaming platforms works is that users are more likely to listen to the most popular artists and songs and not look for an adventure.
The app is merely there to locate the songs they already like or click on a recommendation produced by an algorithm.
It’s not like going out on a Friday night to experience some unknown singer in a grunge basement and becoming a new fan. Users know what they want, and they desire to access it. Such is the nature of internet search.
Spotify’s data shows that out of 3 million artists on the platform, 200,000 artists receive 70% of the music streams, clearly segmenting the haves and have-nots.
The rest of the 2.8 million are struggling to be discovered and cannot cut a wage off of Spotify’s platform.
Online music streaming products also align perfectly well with artificial intelligence-based voice activation technology.
These services will deeply integrate this technology into its services as they desire to ramp up the quality of services.
As for the music streaming business hopefuls, it's game over as the three major players have the leverage to put out any fires that crop up.
When you break it down, Spotify has a 180 million user audience growing at 30% YOY and is hellbent on becoming profitable.
As they enhance the platform’s tools and services, gradually expect more subscription-based products to entertain users.
And even if Spotify doesn’t become profitable as soon as they would like, the aggregate hoard of data will multiply in value.
Spotify is already the most prized music asset in the world with a market cap of $26 billion, about $10 billion higher than all global music revenues.
Yes, Spotify destroyed album artwork and its audio quality of 320 kilobits per second is no match for CD-quality audio. But this is the world we live in today and Daniel Ek’s Spotify is the 800-pound gorilla in the room.
Spotify is a great long-term buy-and-hold asset. Take the latest weakness to add to your position.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 16, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IS IT REALLY ESSENTIAL OR NOT?),
(AAPL), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (AMZN)
He is at it again.
No, not Elon Musk, but Andy Rubin – the Godfather of the Android operating system could create another ground-breaking shift in the world of technology.
Apple’s (AAPL) iOS system was the leader of the pack until Rubin’s timely intervention.
When Apple debuted the iPhone and, shortly after, the Apple app store, there was nothing remotely comparable at the time.
The roaring success of the iPhone and its app store could have been so much more to the global smartphone audience if it consumed everybody.
You could smell broad-based world domination, but it never materialized.
Android now has 85% of the global smartphone market share, and Apple has carved out the last 15% albeit in the high-income markets.
You can thank Microsoft (MSFT) for all of this – let me explain.
Android was hands down the best purchase ever made by Google for a paltry sum of just $50 million.
It was in 2005 when Android was bought by Google and Rubin’s work commenced overseeing the construction of a platform that could avoid licensing restrictions dragging down the industry.
Android was initially commissioned by Google to build a platform to stymie another potential Microsoft monopoly, but this time, in the mobile space.
Google didn’t want to be blown away by Microsoft as the pivot to mobile was picking up steam.
Google assumed that Microsoft had the best chance to execute the shift to mobile because of the universal acceptance of the Windows operating system.
And little did they know that Steve Jobs had a game changer up his sleeve when he rolled out the iPhone.
The premise was very simple for Android - offer supreme customer value, massively scale a global platform, and catalyze explosive growth.
Easier said than done.
In the end, Rubin was able to generate a blanketed adoption of the Android operating system in smartphones.
Apple has been, by and large, the victor of hardware because even though the Android system is more popular, the manufacturer of Android-based phones cuts across a broad swath of different international companies from Google itself to Samsung, LG, and the various Chinese makers.
Around half of Americans are proud to be an iPhone owner and Apple was able to ensure they were the only manufacturer of their proprietary iOS system harvesting all the profits.
Onlookers aren’t giving Android the credit it duly deserves in the global scheme of things.
Fortunately for Google and Rubin, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer fudged his opportunity while Palm, Symbian, and BlackBerry never stuck around either for recorded posterity. It could of easily have gone the other way.
Android has become so entrenched in non-iPhone smartphones that Google was fined $5 billion for being too dominant in Europe or for what regulators tout as illegally cementing their position. The battle is still going on in court with a final verdict coming shortly.
What does Rubin have on the menu this time?
After establishing his own private company to battle the tech Goliaths, he built an initial smartphone that was an unmitigated flop.
The Essential PH-1 smartphone offered a stock Android experience meant to appeal to the medium-tiered smartphone market.
The phone had solid hardware, enough juice in it to be competitive, a poor camera, and it did little to stand out from the crowd. There are many other cheaper substitutes with better brand recognition selling similar enough devices.
In general, it is a passable smartphone, but the initial price point was a reach in this ultra-competitive climate.
Sales were an outsized bust barely able to penetrate the American smartphone market.
Sprint offered the phone for $699 and registered 5,000 sales in the first month.
To put it into perspective, Apple routinely sells 40 or 50 million smartphones per quarter.
The Essential phone was discounted down to $499 in an attempt to salvage revenue. That didn’t work either.
You can now buy the phone on Amazon.com (AMZN) for $378.
All told, the phone did about 150,000 in sales and Rubin needed to rethink his vision.
Even as recently as this spring, takeover rumors swirled because of Essential’s stable of engineering firepower.
The vultures never swooped and Essential is back with a vengeance building their second phone - Essential Phone PH-2
To stem the tide and make their mark in the smartphone industry, Rubin decided Essential needed a fresh strategy requiring immense chutzpah.
Smartphones have essentially become commoditized in the mid-tier range and consumers look for the best specs at the lowest price point. Samsung has made a living picking off this type of buyer.
Rubin decided to align his future product with the technology that will change the world – artificial intelligence.
Artificial intelligence will be incorporated into the design for the phone to work for the user without him using it.
Yes, that’s right, the user will not have to even have his paws on the phone. The artificial intelligence will mimic the user’s behavior and carry out its functions and tasks alone.
Rubin said, “You can be off enjoying your life, having that dinner without touching your phone and you can trust your phone to do things on your behalf.”
This audacious strategy is a risky bet that consumers will be comfortable enough with artificial intelligence to allow them to venture out alone into this complicated world with no checks and balances from the user themselves.
Imagine some catastrophic scenario if the artificial intelligence taps into a user’s bank account and begins deploying hard-earned capital to exotic locations all over the world.
Smartphone competition has effectively made smartphones widely available for most of the world, but cultivating a smartphone company from scratch requires a dose of creative intuition.
Betting on the development of artificial intelligence is one of the few weapons in Rubin’s toolkit.
This could be Rubin’s last attempt at a smartphone and moving further out onto the risk curve means this could be a whale of a failure or a spectacular success. I can’t imagine his investors allowing him to produce another failed smartphone.
My bet is that consumers aren’t ready to absorb the type of levels of artificial intelligence that Rubin hopes to infuse into his new phone.
Even if he lays an egg, he will be back on another project in no time. That is the sort of slack you get by being the godfather of the Android operating system. Funding is as lush as a tropical forest.
Secretly, I want him to succeed because the world needs positive disruption to the Silicon Valley cohort of megacompanies from independent sources.
My bet is that a smartphone will not be the revolutionary new product the world is clamoring for. It’ll be something we have never seen before.
Please click here to visit Essential’s website.
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