Global Market Comments
March 10, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON MARCH 14-16)
(MARCH 8 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (TLT), (UUP), (FXY), (FXB), (FXE), (FXA), (UNG), (BOIL), (AAPL), (TSLA), (WW), (BHP), (NVDA), (RIVN), (FCX)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the March 8 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Incline Village, CA.
Q: Do you think the US dollar will drop this year?
A: Absolutely it will drop; in fact, the drop started in October last year. We’re actually six months into a bear market for the US dollar (UUP), and bull market for the yen (FXY), the British pound (FXB), the euro (FXE), and the Australian dollar (FXA). However, the rate-cutting scenario is on vacation, and when it comes back from that vacation, then we will see very sharply dropping interest rates, soaring bond prices, and a weak dollar. That scenario is certain to happen by year-end, probably by 10 or 20% —quite a lot. If you just want to buy the basket for foreign currencies, you can sell short the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP).
Q: Can stocks (SPY) and bonds (TLT) go up at the same time?
A: Well, they shouldn’t, and usually they don’t. But this time it’s different now because we’re all beholden to the interest rate decisions of the Fed. All asset classes are moving together like synchronized swimmers, which means that on days when the market believes that Powell is finished raising rates, you get big bull moves in stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, and beanie baby collectibles. And on the bad days like yesterday, where Powell really reiterates how tough his stance is on inflation is unchanged, everything falls in unison. It’s really become a liquidity/confidence/inflation on-off type market. We have been playing that like a maestro for the last six months and have made a ton of money. I hope it continues that way. “If it’s working, don’t fix it” is my philosophy on trading, which is constantly changing.
Q: Do small caps underperform or overperform in a rising rates era?
A: They always do poorly because small caps have fewer cash reserves, more leverage, and more exposure to interest rates, as opposed to large caps which, in the tech area, don’t borrow at all. They’re actually net creditors to the system so they make more money when interest rates go up. I imagine the interest income at Apple this year has to be absolutely gigantic. That said, small caps always lead recoveries because of their excess leverage, so that's why people are piling into small caps on dips right now. Going from terrible to just bad often generates the best stock returns.
Q: How long will “steering wheel falling off” news tank Tesla?
A: Well, it was worth a $6 dollar drop today in an otherwise weak market. First of all, if there are any actual problems with Tesla, they fix them immediately for free, and most of the fixes can be done with a software upgrade which they do at midnight the day of the recall. Second, a lot of these stories about Tesla problems are false, planted there by the oil industry, trying to head off their own demise. Third, when you go from making several thousand to several million cars a year, scaling up to mass production always uncovers some sort of manufacturing flaws. Tesla can fix them faster than anyone else. I remember when the first Model S came out 13 years ago, we had a hot day and all the sealants on the windows melted. They said they didn’t know because it doesn’t get that hot in Fremont California where they build the cars. They sent out a truck the next day and installed all new sealants on our windows. So that is part of living with Tesla, which seems bent on taking over the world. And I’m working on a major update on Tesla report. I listened to the whole 3.5-hour investors day, and I'll get that out when I get all the snow shoveled. Full disclosure: Elon Musk personally gave me a free $12,800 Tesla Powerwall three years ago. It’s the red one.
Q: I just bought the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) 14/15 2025 LEAP for $0.20 with UNG down 3%.
A: I’m going to share that LEAPS with all the Global Trading Dispatch members tomorrow. So far, only the Mad Hedge Concierge members have seen it. We’ll go into great detail in tomorrow’s letter about why you want to buy natural gas here and how you want to play it.
Q: It seems the Fed won’t be happy unless there’s a recession; am I reading this wrong?
A: I think Powell is striving for perfection—killing off inflation and lowering interest rates without a recession. I actually am hoping for a recession myself, even if it’s just for one quarter because that greatly increases market volatility and makes my bond long look like a stroke of genius. And let’s see if he can pull it off. He’s coming facing so many unprecedented challenges to the economy, like the pandemic, the end of liquidity, and the extreme worker shortage. It’ll be really interesting to see what happens. Multiple PhD theses in economics begging to be addressed in there.
Q: Will artificial intelligence cause another bubble?
A: Absolutely, yes. And if you’ve been in the market long enough, you become a bubble collector like me. Just off the top of my head, 3D printing, cold fusion, bitcoin, portfolio insurance, Nifty 50, eyeballs,—if I spent more time, I could come up with an endless list. And this is how Wall Street makes their money—they create bubbles by manufacturing compelling, irresistible stories that can be sold to the masses. Some of these like cold fusion, I know immediately won’t work for 20 years because of my physics background, and definitely not now. Some of these other ones are just flashes in the pan and never work. You just get used to an endless series of bubbles. AI is new only if you haven’t been watching. The share prices of Google, Amazon, Apple, have already had gigantic moves in the last 20 years, largely because of their use of artificial intelligence. So those are your plays—those and (NVDA), which provides the essential chips for artificial intelligence, and we’re active in all of these, both on the long and short side.
Q: Is climate change a hoax or a bubble?
A: If you think it’s a hoax, will you please come over to Incline Village and get the 12 feet of snow off my damn roof before the house collapses. I already can’t close any doors in the house because the weight of the snow is buckling the house and bending the door frames. If you finish the roof, then you can get to work on my deck which also has about 8 ft of snow and is at risk of collapsing, like many in town already have. This has never happened before. The climate has changed.
Q: How come there’s never mention of demographic shift in other parts of the world when there is in the US?
A: The US is the only country in the world where you can earn enough money to retire early. If you live on the coasts, you can sell your house for cash, move inland and never work again, no matter your age. There is no other country where you can do that. Maybe there will be in the future, but definitely not right now. People who complain about how awful the economy is here forget that this is the best economy in the world and has been so for a very long time. I go with the Warren Buffet outlook on this, which is “Never bet against America.”
Q: How about an Entry point for Freeport McMoRan (FCX)?
A: It’s lower. You don’t want to touch it while the entire commodity sector is selling off in fears of higher interest rates in a recession. Once that’s over it goes to $100.
Q: What is the best way to play Natural Gas?
A: I’ll send an extended report tomorrow, but the short answer is United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL), which is a 2x long day trading NatGas ETF.
Q: Are we entering LEAPS territory for Rivian (RIVN)?
A: Yes, just wait for the current selloff to end and then go to the longest possible expiration. This thing will have a multiple move 2x, 3x, or a 10x out the other side of any recession. The CEO is brilliant and people love the cars.
Q: What happens to housing prices when interest rates on mortgages are at 7%?
A: Well, they should go down 10-20%. What they’re actually doing is going sideways, and they’re still going up in the cheaper neighborhoods because of the structural shortage of 10 million houses in the US. The all-cash buyers are still out there buying. There is tremendous inventory shortage in the housing market now; every broker I know got cleaned out of all their inventory in January when we had a brief 100 basis point dip in rates back then, which has since gone away. I think we go sideways in housing until the end of the year, and then big interest rate cuts will be obvious by then, and the market takes off and we have another 10-year bubble. If you think housing is expensive now, go visit Sydney Australia or Shanghai, China and you’ll see how expensive housing can really get.
Q: How how high would Fed funds have to get to cause a real recession?
A: My guess is 6%. We might actually get there in the second quarter. That might trigger enough of a recession to start unemployment rising just enough to let them cut interest rates. My attitude is: rip the Band-Aid off, raise by 75 basis points on March, and get it over with. But Jay Powell is a very gradualist type of guy, even though he’s brought the sharpest interest rate rise in history.
Q: Should I chase Apple (AAPL) here at $150 a share?
A: In this kind of market, you never chase anything. Only buy Apple at $150 if you think happy days are here again and you think we’re going up forever. To me on the chart it looks like we’re double topping and may actually get a lower low, which you then buy. You may even want to do a LEAPS on Apple if we get down into the $130s or $120s again.
Q: Isn’t it hard for the economy to really tank when seniors and savers are now generating income again for their retirement, giving them more income to spend?
A: Well not only that but workers have had 10-20% pay increases also, and they have more money to spend. It’s really hard to see a severe recession in any kind of scenario, barring another pandemic, and that’s why we’re saying buy the dips—we are in fact in a new bull market that started in October. When you get these market reversals, you often don’t get confirmation on the charts for up to a year, and we’re in one of those periods now. That's why there are still a lot of non-believers in the bull scenario and no confidence.
Q: Would you buy Tesla LEAPS?
A: Yes, under $150 on Tesla shares. And, given its record of volatility, we may actually get there, because this is a $1,000 stock easily in 5 years. I'll send you a report giving you all the details of why. Detroit is basically screwed, someday it’ll just be reduced to building Teslas under license from Tesla and painting them different colors and giving them different names or something like that.
Q: What’s a buy-on-dip?
A: Sorry, but no easy answer here. It’s unique to every stock depending on the historic volatility and ranges of the stock. It’s going to be 1% for a stock, it can be 10% for an option, it could be 20% for a stock like Tesla. It’s vague but it really is unique to every single stock. A good rule of thumb is that after you execute a trade and then throw up on your shoes you’ve just done a great trade.
Q: I see from your pictures that you lost weight? How do you do it?
A: I got COVID last May. I lost 20 pounds in two weeks because I couldn’t eat while I was sleeping 20 hours a day. I just woke up long enough to send out trade alerts. All of a sudden, a 40-year collection of expensive designer pants fit. My kids now call me Captain Fancy Pants. When I go through airport security now and take my belt off they fall down so I’m always careful to wear my best underwear, the ones with the dollar sing all over them.
Q: What’s the best way to play obesity drugs?
A: Unfortunately, There is no pure play on obesity drugs. It will be a $150 billion market that will grow very quickly. I will talk about it at length next week in the summit at the Biotech & Health Care webinar, which you’ll get registration links for tomorrow. Weight loss drugs are small pieces of very large drug companies, so the effect gets diluted by everything else they’re doing. The purest play may be Weight Watchers (WW). If you just need to go to Weight Watchers just to get a shot, that could be really good for them. The stock just doubled in one day on this.
Q: Commodity-based foreign stocks are the best bet on inflation protection; should I get involved?
A: Yes, use the current selloff to get into the whole commodity space (except for maybe food) because not only are they a commodity play, they’re a weak dollar play and that way you get a combined double leverage effect on prices, which I've seen happen many times in my life. So yes, look at foreign-type commodity stocks, and of course, the biggest one out there is Broken Hill Proprietary (BHP), which I always watch very closely. It’s the largest stock in Australia owned by virtually everybody in Australia who has any money, with great volatility, and which has recently just had a selloff.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, or TECHNOLOGY LETTER, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
2015 in Ouarzazate Morocco
Global Market Comments
January 17, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or GOING AGAINST THE CONSENSUS),
(TLT), (MUB), (JNK), (HYG), (GLD), (SLV), (GOLD), (WPM), (FCX), (BHP), (EEM), (MS), (GS), (JPM), (BAC), (C), (BRK/B), (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (VIX)
Going against the market consensus has been working pretty well lately.
When the world prayed for a Santa Claus rally, I piled on the shorts. When traders expected a New Year January crash, I filled my boots with longs.
That’s how you earn an eye-popping 19.83% profit in a mere nine trading says, or 2.20% a day.
The other day, someone asked me how it is possible to get mind-blowing results like these. It’s very simple. Get insanely aggressive when everyone else is terrified, which I did on January 3. I also knew that with the Volatility Index (VIX) falling to $18, pickings would quickly get extremely thin. It was make money now, or never.
To quote my favorite market strategist, Yankees manager Yogi Berra, “No one goes to that restaurant anymore because it’s too crowded.”
My performance in January has so far tacked on a welcome +19.83%. Therefore, my 2023 year-to-date performance is also +19.83%, a spectacular new high. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up +3.78% so far in 2023.
It is the greatest outperformance on an index since Mad Hedge Fund Trader started 15 years ago. My trailing one-year return maintains a sky-high +103.30%.
That brings my 15-year total return to +617.03%, some 2.73 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period and a new all-time high. My average annualized return has ratcheted up to +47.17%, easily the highest in the industry.
I took profits in my February bonds last week (TLT), taking advantage of a $5 pop in the market. All my remaining positions are profitable, including longs in (GOLD), (WPM), (TSLA), (BRK/B), and (TLT), with 30% in cash for a 10% net long position.
Since my New Year forecasts have worked out so well, I will repeat the high points just in case you were out playing golf or bailing out from a flood when they were published.
Buy Falling Interest Rate Plays, as I expect the yield on the ten-year US Treasury yield to fall from 3.50% to 2.50% by yearend. That means Hoovering up any kind of bond, like (TLT), (MUB), (JNK), and (HYG). Falling interest rates also shine a great spotlight on precious metals like (GLD), (SLV), (GOLD), and (WPM).
The US Dollar Will Continue to Fall. Commodities love this scenario, including (FCX), (BHP), and emerging markets (EEM).
Inflation Will Decline All Year and should go below 4% by the end of 2023. In fact, we have had real deflation for the past six months. Financials do well here, like (MS), (GS), (JPM), (BAC), (C), and (BRK/B).
Which creates another headache for you, if not an opportunity. We may have a situation where the main indexes, (SPY), (QQQ), and (IWM) go nowhere, while individual stocks and sectors skyrocket. That creates a chance to outperform benchmarks…and everyone else.
There has been a lot of discussion among traders lately about the collapse of the Volatility Index ($VIX) to $18, a two-year low and what it means.
They are distressed because a ($VIX) this low greatly shrinks the availability of low risk/high return trading opportunities. A ($VIX) this low is basically shouting at you to “STAY AWAY!”
Does it mean that an explosion of volatility is following? Or are markets going to be exceptionally boring for the next six months?
Beats me. I’ll wait for the market to tell me, as I always do.
Current Positions
Risk On
(TSLA) 1/$75-$80 call spread 10.00%
(GOLD) 1/$15.50-$16.50 call spread. 10.00%
(WPM) 1/$$36-$39 call spread. 10.00%
(BRKB) 1/$290-$300 call spread 10.00%
Risk Off
(TLT) 1/$96-$99 call spread - 10.00%
(TLT) 1/$95-$98 call spread -20.00%
Total Net Position 10.00%
Total Aggregate Position 70.00%
Consumer Price Index Falls 0.1% in December, continuing a trend that started in June. Stocks popped and bonds rallied. YOY inflation has fallen to 6.5%. “RISK ON” continues. Now we have to wait another month to get a new inflation number. The economy has now seen de facto deflation for six months. Gas prices led the decline, now 9.4%. We might get away with only a 0.25% interest rate hike at the February 1 Fed meeting.
Bond Default Risk Rises, as well as a government shutdown, as radicals gain control of the House. This is the group that lost the most seats in the November election. Bonds are the only asset class not performing today, and paper with summer maturities is trading at deep discounts. It certainly casts a shadow over my 50% long bond position. However, I don’t expect it to last more than a month and my longest bond maturity is in February.
The US Consumer is in Good Shape, according to JP Morgan’s Jamie Diamond. Spending is now 10% greater than pre covid, and balance sheets are healthy. No sign of an impending deep recession here.
Boeing Deliveries Soar from 340 to 480 in 2022, and 479 new orders. A sudden aircraft shortage couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of people. The 737 MAX has shaken off all its design problems after two crashes four years ago. Cost-cutting here can be fatal. Europe’s Airbus is still tops, with 663 deliveries last year. Don’t chase the stock up here, up 79% from the October lows, but buy (BA) on dips.
Small Business Optimism Hits Six-Month Low to from 91.9 to 89.8, adding to the onslaught of negative sentiment indicators, so says the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
Copper Prices Set to Soar Further with the post-Covid reopening of China, according to research firm Alliance Bernstein. After a three-year shutdown, there is massive pent-up demand. Copper prices are at seven-month highs. Keep buying (FCX) on dips.
Australian Metals Exports Soar, as the new supercycle in commodities gains steam. Shipments topped $9 billion in November, 20% higher than the most optimistic forecasts. Keep buying copper (FCX), aluminium (AA), iron ore (BHP), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) on dips.
My Ten-Year View
When we come out the other side of the recession, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. The economy decarbonizing and technology hyper-accelerating, creating enormous investment opportunities. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The new America will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!
On Monday, January 16, markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day.
On Tuesday, January 17 at 8:30 AM EST, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index is out
On Wednesday, January 18 at 11:00 AM, the Producer Price Index is announced, giving us another inflation read.
On Thursday, January 19 at 8:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. US Housing Starts and Building Permits are printed.
On Friday, January 20 at 7:00 AM, the Existing Home Sales are disclosed. At 2:00, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is out.
As for me, the University of Southern California has a student jobs board that is positively legendary. It is where the actor John Wayne picked up a gig working as a stagehand for John Ford which eventually made him a movie star.
As a beneficiary of a federal work/study program in 1970, I was entitled to pick any job I wanted for the princely sum of $1.00 an hour, then the minimum wage. I noticed that the Biology Department was looking for a lab assistant to identify and sort Arctic plankton.
I thought, “What the heck is Arctic plankton?” I decided to apply to find out.
I was hired by a Japanese woman professor whose name I long ago forgot. She had figured out that Russians were far ahead of the US in Arctic plankton research, thus creating a “plankton gap.” “Gaps” were a big deal during the Cold War, so that made her a layup to obtain a generous grant from the Defense Department to close the “plankton gap.”
It turns out that I was the only one who applied for the job, as postwar anti-Japanese sentiment then was still high on the West Coast. I was given my own lab bench and a microscope and told to get to work.
It turns out that there is a vast ecosystem of plankton under 20 feet of ice in the Arctic consisting of thousands of animal and plant varieties. The whole system is powered by sunlight that filters through the ice. The thinner the ice, such as at the edge of the Arctic ice sheet, the more plankton. In no time, I became adept at identifying copepods, euphasia, and calanus hyperboreaus, which all feed on diatoms.
We discovered that there was enough plankton in the Arctic to feed the entire human race if a food shortage ever arose, then a major concern. There was plenty of plant material and protein there. Just add a little flavoring and you had an endless food supply.
The high point of the job came when my professor traveled to the North Pole, the first woman ever to do so. She was a guest of the US Navy, which was overseeing the collection hole in the ice. We were thinking the hole might be a foot wide. When she got there, she discovered it was in fact 50 feet wide. I thought this might be to keep it from freezing over but thought nothing of it.
My freshman year passed. The following year, the USC jobs board delivered up a far more interesting job, picking up dead bodies for the Los Angeles Counter Coroner, Thomas Noguchi, the “Coroner to the Stars.” This was not long after Charles Manson was locked up, and his bodies were everywhere. The pay was better too, and I got to know the LA freeway system like the back of my hand.
It wasn’t until years later when I had obtained a high-security clearance from the Defense Department that I learned of the true military interest in plankton by both the US and the Soviet Union.
It turns out that the hole was not really for collecting plankton. Plankton was just the cover. It was there so a US submarine could surface, fire nuclear missiles at the Soviet Union, then submarine again under the protection of the ice.
So, not only have you been reading the work of a stock market wizard these many years, you have also been in touch with one of the world’s leading experts on Artic plankton.
Live and learn.
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
1981 On Peleliu Island in the South Pacific
Global Market Comments
January 13, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JANUARY 11 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A)
(ROM), (FCX), (QQQ), (VIX), (TSLA), (TLT), (MSFT), (RIVN), (VIX), (BRK/B), (RTX), (LMT), (FXI), (UNG), (GLD), (GDX), (SLV), (WPM)
Below please find the subscribers’ Q&A for the January 11 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley in California.
Q: In your trade alert you expected that the (TLT) might go up as much as 30% this year. But in your latest newsletter, you mentioned that the chaos in the US House of Representatives would greatly raise the risk of a default on US government debt by the summer and certainly cast a shadow over your 50% long bond position. Is it still a good idea to hold on to the (TLT) ETF over the next 2-6 months?
A: It is. The extremists who now control the House are not interested in governing or passing laws but gaining clicks, raising money, and increasing speaker’s fees. It may have converted (TLT) from a straight-up trade to a flat-line trade. We will still make the maximum profit on call spreads and LEAPS but with greater risk. But even chaos in the House can’t head off a recession, which the bond market seems intent on pricing in by going up. However, if you depend on government payments for any reason, be it Social Security, a government salary, a tax refund, or a payment for a contract, expect delays. The housing market also ceases because closings can’t take place during government shutdowns. Also, 30% of my bond longs expire in four trading days, and the remainder on February 17.
Q: Is it wise to sell the 2X ProShares Ultra Technology ETF (ROM) now or keep holding?
A: I think the (ROM), NASDAQ, and technology stocks in general may make several runs at the lows over the next six months but won’t fall much from here. A recession is priced in. Once we get through this, you’re looking at doubles and triples for the best names. So, the risk/reward overwhelmingly favors holding on to a one-year view.
Q: would you buy Tesla (TSLA) here?
A: I would start scaling in. The bad news is about to dry up, like Twitter, the recession, the pandemic in China, and Elon Musk selling shares. Then we face an onslaught of good news, like the new Mexico factory announcement, the Cybertruck launch, solid state batteries, and annual production hitting 2 million. At this level, the shares are priced in multiple worst-case scenarios. It is selling at 10X 2025 earnings, half the market multiple. At the end of the day, Tesla has an unassailable 14-year start over the rest of the industry and is the only company in the world that makes money on EVs. There’s an easy 10X here on two-year LEAPS.
Q: I’m in the Freeport McMoRan (FCX) January 25 2-year LEAP approaching the upper end of the 42/45 range. If it crosses 45, do we close the position?
A: Sell half, take your profit. If you’re in the LEAP, my guess is you probably have a 500% profit here in only 3 months, which is not bad. And then you keep the remaining half because you’re then playing with the house's money, and Freeport has a shot of going all the way to $100 a share by the 2025 expiration, and that will get you your full 1,000% return on the position. It’s always nice to be in a position where it’s impossible to lose money on a trade, and that certainly is where you are now with your (FCX) LEAP and everybody else in the FCX LEAP in October also.
Q: As a member of the Florida Retirement System, I’m curious how Blackrock (BLK) and other firms are dealing with the Santos’ plan for their portfolios.
A: Having a state governor manage your portfolio and make your sector and stock picks is an absolutely terrible idea. I can’t imagine a worse possible outcome for your retirement funds. Florida is not the only state doing this—Louisiana and Texas are doing it too. The goal is to drive money out of alternative energy and back into the oil industry, and obviously, this is being financed by the oil industry, which is pissed off over their low multiples. Suffice it to say it’s not a good idea to move out of one of the fastest-growing industries in the market and move into an industry that’s going to zero in 10 years. If that’s their investment strategy, I wish they’d stick to politics and leave investing for true professionals to do.
Q: What do you think about cannabis stocks?
A: I’m a better user of the product than the stock. How about that? How hard is it to grow weed? At the end of the day, these are just pure marketing companies, and that value added is low. Plus, they have huge competition from the black market still selling ½ to ⅓ below market prices because they’re tax-free; the local taxes on these cannabis sales are enormous.
Q: Would you recommend selling a bear market rally when the S&P goes to 405?
A: The (QQQ) would be the better short, something like the $310-320 vertical bear put spread for February to bring in some free money. That’s what I'm planning to do if we get up that high, which we may not.
Q: How do you take advantage of a low CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)?
A: You don’t; there’s nothing to do here with the (VIX) at $22. My trades this year were not volatility trades—because we did them with low volatility, they were pure directional trades betting that the longs would go up and the shorts would go down and they all worked.
Q: Will Rivian (RIVN) survive?
A: Yes, they have two years of cash flow in the bank, and they’re boosting production. However, a high-growth, non-earning stock like Rivian is just out of favor right now. Will they come back into favor? Yes, probably in a year or so, but in the meantime, people are much happier buying Microsoft (MSFT) at a discount than Rivian.
Q: Do you ever buy butterfly spreads?
A: No, four-legged trades run up a lot of commissions, are hard to execute because you have 4 spreads, and have lower returns. They are also lower risk and for people who have no idea what the market is going to do. I don’t need the lower risk trades because I know what markets are going to do.
Q: Do you suggest any Microsoft (MSFT) LEAPS?
A: Yes, go out two years with LEAPS and go out about 50% on your strike prices. A 50% move here in Microsoft in two years is a complete no-brainer.
Q: With weakness in retail, rising inventories, and high consumer debt, will consumers dip into savings?
A: Yes they will, but that will predominantly happen at the bottom half of the economy—the part of the economy that has minimal to no savings. The upper half seems to be doing well—the middle class and of course, the wealthy— and are not cutting back their spending at all, which is why this seems to be a recession that may not actually show up. So, what can I say? The rich are doing great and everyone else is doing less than great, and stocks are reflecting that. Nothing new here.
Q: Would you hold off on tech LEAPS for a bigger selloff, or closer to April?
A: If we do get another big selloff and challenge the October lows, I’ll be pumping out those LEAPS as fast as I can write them; except then, a two-year LEAPS will have an April of 2025 expiration.
Q: I just signed up. What are the advantages of LEAPS?
A: A possible 10x return in 2 years with very low risk. I would suggest going to my website, logging in, and doing a search for LEAPS. There will be a piece there on how to execute a LEAPS, and the Concierge members can also find that piece by logging into their website.
Q: Best and worst sectors?
A: First half, already mentioned them. We like commodities, healthcare, financials, and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) in the first half and tech in the second half.
Q: Have we reached a low in cryptocurrencies?
A: Probably not, and I’ll tell you why I’ve given up on cryptos: I may not live long enough to see the bottom in crypto. It has Tokyo written all over it, and it took Tokyo 30 years to resume a bull market after it crashed in 1990. We’re still at the scandal stage where it turns out that the majority of these trading platforms were stealing money from customers. This is not a great inspiration for investing in that sector. When you have the best quality growth stocks down 80-90%; why bother with something that may not exist or may never recover in your lifetime? I’m out of the crypto business, but there are a wealth of crypto research sources still online and I’m sure they’d be more than happy to give you an opinion.
Q: Why have defense stocks like Raytheon (RTX) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) been weak recently?
A: A couple of reasons. #1 Just outright profit taking into the end of the year in one of the best-performing sectors. #2 The end of the war in Ukraine may not be that far off, and if that happens that could trigger a major round of selling in defense. We did get the three-day ceasefire over the Russian Orthodox New Year, that’s a possible hint, so that may be another reason.
Q: Political outlook on 2024?
A: It’s too early to make any calls, anything could happen; but if we get a repeat of the November election outcome, you could have Democrats retake control of both houses of congress—that’s where the betting money is going right now.
Q: Would you bottom fish in the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)?
A: No, I would not—I am avoiding energy like the plague. Remember the all-time low for natural gas is $0.95 per MM BTU, so we still could have a long way to go.
Q: Would you buy iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) on a post-COVID breakout?
A: It looks like it’s already moved, so maybe kind of late on that. The problem is that in China, you don’t know what you are buying and the locals have a huge advantage in reading Beijing.
Q: What do you think about the Biden administration wanting to ban gas stoves?
A: That’s actually not a federal issue, it’s a state issue. California has already banned gas pipes for all new construction. It looks like New York will follow and that’s one-third of the US population. The goal is to replace them with electrical appliances which emit no carbon. I have a non-carbon house myself, I went down that path about 10 years ago, and it seems to be the only way to reduce carbon emissions—is to either price gasoline or oil out of the market, or to make it illegal, and they’re already making gasoline cars illegal, so gas and oil won’t be far behind. From 1900, we went from a hay powered economy to a gasoline-powered one in only 20 years so it should be doable.
Q: How can the push for all electric work well when we have so many shutdowns, much higher electricity cost, and cannot keep up with the demand already here?
A: Buy lots of copper for new local electric powerlines at the house level and buy lots of aluminum for the long-distance transmission lines. Global demand for both aluminum and copper has to triple to accommodate the grid buildout that is already planned. As far as hurricanes in Florida, there’s nothing you can do to stop those on a hundred-year view; I would move to higher ground, which is hard to do in Florida as the highest point in the state is only 345 feet and that’s a garbage dump.
Q: Can I get a copy of all these slides?
A: Yes, we post the PowerPoint on the website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com usually two hours after the production.
Q: Are you recommending buying precious metals right now (GLD), (GDX), (SLV), (and WPM) even after the upside breakout?
A: On upside breakouts, you buy the dips. A perfect dip would be a retest of the 200-day moving average. But we may not get that, since it seems to be everyone’s number-one choice right now. By the way, I haven’t been telling people to buy gold and LEAPS on all the gold plays since October—that’s where the big move has already been made.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH or TECHNOLOGY LETTER, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
With the Israeli Army in Jerusalem in 1979
Global Market Comments
December 16, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DECEMBER 14 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(JPM), (BAC), (C), (WFC), (UNG), (RIVN), (SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (CRM), (FCX)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the December 14 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley in California.
Q: Is it time to short the S&P 500 (SPY), or go into cash?
A: I vote for cash. Number 1. We’ve just had a tremendous run in the market. The 200-day moving average at $405 is proving to be massive resistance, and you could get a bunch of profit-taking in January on all the positions people bought up in October. They’ve made a ton of money on that, and they may be deferring to profit-taking, hoping for the Santa Clause rally to continue and to take advantage of all that time decay over the holidays—so, high risk. Risk-reward right now is terrible, so I don’t want to do anything. I’m 100% cash, and I’ll stay that way until the New Year unless something exceptional happens in the markets—you never know what might happen. And I watch markets 24/7, vacation or not because it's in my blood.
Q: What about Financials?
A: Wait until the next dip and then go for call spreads which deliver max profits in sideways markets. JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and you might take a look at Wells Fargo (WFC) next time around, but they always seem to be getting into trouble.
Q: What do we do about interest rates here?
A: Look for the 10-year Treasury bond (TLT) yield to drop to about 2.50% in 2023, about the first half of 2023—maybe by June or so. We did just have a round of profit-taking, but we’re adding on dips.
Q: What do you think about the US sending patriot batteries to Ukraine?
A: The problem is the MIM-104 Patriot SAM system is kind of old—about 41 years old—and it’s been outrun by the new technologies developed by the Ukraine war. Also, 1,000 drones at $1,000 each would be cheaper than 1 patriot missile for $4 million. Sending swarms of hundreds of super cheap drone bombs to attack targets has only been developed over the past six months and you only need one to get through to destroy the target for which the patriot would be useless. Patriot is really designed to shoot down incoming Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads with one hour of notice and highly predictable trajectories. We used them a lot in the Gulf War in 1991, and we gave many to Israel which used them to great effect when defending big cities. But they were only firing against slow WWII German-style V2 rockets which Saddam Hussein literally copied off of Wikipedia. If you want to see how effective the new drone strategy is, watch competitive drone racing (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNRiMgNnuVE ), or robot wars (http://www.robotwars.tv ), or any of these other online programs where you have drones controlled by humans doing exactly what I’m talking about. Also, 1,000 drones at $1,000 each would be cheaper than 1 patriot missile for $ million.
Q: What’s your Rivian (RIVN) target by the January options expiration?
A: I have no idea, but Elon Musk has had the impact of destroying not only Tesla but the entire EV sector, so Rivian is a great company clearly being dragged down by Tesla. But also, a joint venture to make trucks in Europe was also put on hold with Mercedes. And of course, nobody wants to spend money ahead of a recession. Buy (RIVN) two-year LEAPS.
Q: Why is the US buying Natural Gas (UNG) in Massachusetts from Russia when we have so much already in this country?
A: The US does not have a national natural gas pipeline system, so you can have excesses in Texas where it’s produced meet shortages in Massachusetts where it’s consumed. Somebody found a loophole to get Russian gas into the US using offshore shell companies which I’m sure will be closed instantly once that delivery is made. Suffice it to say that the sanctions on Russia are tightening, are having a deeper effect and forcing them to pull out of Ukraine sooner than we expect. That may be the pivotal black swan of 2023—that Russia gives up on Ukraine, which would be a huge positive for all markets.
Q: When will we be using nuclear fusion?
A: I have been following nuclear fusion for 50 years, ever since I worked at the Nuclear Test Site in Nevada—it’s long been the holy grail for alternative energy. I talked to the teams every once in a while, since they live next door. The positive developments we saw in England last week are a big breakthrough, but you’re looking for at least 30 years until we get functional economic nuclear fusion power plants. So, we only have to stay alive for 30 more years (and keep climate change from killing us all off in the meantime) before we get carbon-free energy in an unlimited supply. Having said that, from the time they developed a functional commercial nuclear powerplant using Uranium in 1957 from the initial use of the atomic bomb in 1945, was only 12 years and that had to be equally as daunting. So, I may be wrong, and there may be other breakthroughs coming our way, but you don’t control 150 million degrees easily—that's what’s necessary with fusion. The amounts of power input required are also staggering, like all the power that San Francisco uses in a day, just to produce marginal bits of electricity. And the deuterium fuel needed (H2, or heavy hydrogen) in large quantities would not exactly be cheap either. But in 30 years every city should get its own min sun to provide unlimited electricity. So there’s your science lecture of the day, from a long-term fusion follower. For a more detailed explanation please click here at https://www.energy.gov/science/doe-explainsnuclear-fusion-reactions
Q: Is Tesla (TSLA) a buy here?
A: Absolutely, for the long term, but I would not be amazed to see $110 print first. Number one, there’s a major short play going on here too building huge amounts of buying power, and Number two, we’re flushing out a lot of long-term profit takers for tax loss selling as we go with the year-end to offset 2022 losses in other stocks. Buying Tesla at 27X earnings multiple, and next year’s 19X multiple when it was at 100X just a year ago is kind of unbelievable. An onslaught of new Tesla positives will hit the market in 2023. The new Cybertruck comes out and there is a two-year waiting list out the gate and deposits in hand for 100,000 vehicles. The company is generating such enormous cash flows that it is like to carry out $10 billion in share buybacks, especially with the price this low. There are no real competitors on the horizon, except for a handful with minimal production at big losses outside of China.
Q: Is the demise of FTX the end of crypto?
A: I would say yes, which is why we stopped producing our Bitcoin newsletter. It could take 30 years for this thing to recover. It’s another Japanese stock market type situation, where it literally takes three decades to recover, and by then new technologies will far surpass it. The confidence in anything crypto has been totally destroyed by the FTX scandal—it’s the final nail in the coffin. And there are better things to do—I’d rather be buying NVIDIA (NVDA) or Tesla (TSLA) than crypto. There are too many great trades after a bear market.
Q: Is Blackrock (BLK) in trouble?
A: Not in a million years, and I’d be buying it on any dip. They’re an incredibly well-run company, buy on dips. They have one gated REIT which thei disclosed well in advance that is drawing all the adverse publicity. In bear markets, traders always believe the worst.
Q: Why would you not sell Nvidia (NVDA)?
A: Well, we dumped all our tech stocks in January, so we did sell there. But I try not to go against long-term trends, and the long-term trends for Nvidia is a double or triple from here since they are the 8-pound gorilla in the high-end chip business.
Q: Why is cybersecurity (PANW), (CRWD) so unloved in this environment?
A: They are over-owned. When everybody owns something, you can have the greatest story in the world and it doesn’t go up because you need new buyers for things to go up, and the Cybersecurity story is pretty well known. That’s why it won’t go down either, people are not selling because they believe in the long-term story of cyber security—and quite correctly so, and I might add at the bottom of the ranges.
Q: Isn’t Warren Buffet’s age a worry regarding Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB)?
A: No, the replacement management team that has been there for 20 years, is generating great results. Warren is basically just the front-end mouthpiece for Berkshire Hathaway, just like I’m the front-end mouthpiece for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader and isn't really involved in day-to-day decisions. That’s how Berkshire was able to step up its technology exposure during the teens. When he goes, the stock might drop 5% from algorithm and uninformed sales, but no more.
Q: What do you think of the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) versus the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)?
A: Avoid the (TBT) because it’s a 2x—you have extra management fees, and extra dealing costs—it’s better just to buy (TLT) on a 2x margin than it is shorting the (TBT) which is already a 2x. I’m looking for $120-$130 in the (TLT) by mid-2023, which is also a great LEAPS candidate.
Q: Is the market rethinking technology multiples here which are IBIDTA based?
A: It has already rethought the technology multiples because they have collapsed. They have dropped, in Tesla’s case 100X to 19X, which looks like a pretty serious piece of rethinking to me, so yes absolutely. Where is the final level? My theory always has been that when tech falls to a market multiple, which for the S&P 500 right now is 18.5X, that is your final bottom in tech multiples which means they may have more to go down. And what might really happen is you may have a situation where the market multiples start to rise again and get back up to the 20’s, tech falls, and they meet somewhere in the low 20s. That’s your final bottom for tech, and then you buy it to own for the next 10 years.
Q: When do you think the Fed will start lowering rates?
A: It will be a second-half affair. First of all, they have to raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, then raise them again in February by 50 and again in March by 25, and then leave them alone for 3 months. Then we will have a recession, or dramatically lower inflation by then, or both. And then they’ll have room to start cutting, which sets a calendar of about June where they start several 75 basis point CUTS. Remember, markets discount things 6-9 months in advance, which is why we had that $20 rally in the (TLT) that started in February. There’s your calendar. So far, it’s working.
Q: Will you give a buy signal on Tesla (TSLA)?
A: More like a Hail Mary on Tesla, hoping that it’s the bottom. When you get these capitulation selloffs, which is what we’re getting on Tesla, there is absolutely no way of predicting where the final number is, because you’re dealing with human emotions here, which are totally unpredictable and are panicking. I’d rather wait, give the first 10% of the move to the next guy, and then play the new trend from there. But I think Tesla could be one of the top performers of 2023. Especially if you get down to like $110 or so, something unbelievable—you know, get Tesla to market multiple, that means it’s got to drop another $30 essentially, and in this environment, it could do that. It could keep going down every day for the rest of this year because a lot of these big reversals tend to happen at year ends. When you get the last Tesla bull out of there, that’s when it goes up. After that, it’s all short covering.
Q: Do you think it will be 50 or 75 basis points?
A: It’s a coin toss for whether it’s 50 or 75. Knowing Jay Powell as I do, I’d go for 50, but with harsh talk. I think he wants to shock us, wants to kill off this stock market rally, wants to kill off any hope you can get one more price rise through the system before we hit a recession. A 50 basis points would be a real shocker and, by the way, would also give us easily a 1000-point selloff, which we could then use to buy into for the new year.
Q: Could Tesla reach $600?
A: Yes, I think it could. Remember, the fundamental story for Tesla is still on track. They are still growing at a 40% rate, while the rest of Detroit is going nowhere. All of their leads are overwhelming, and the really telling aspect for the future of Tesla is that Apple gave up on its autonomous driving program. Every other car company in the world is going to come to the same decision, except for maybe Google. So yes, the bull case is absolutely there, you just have to wait for the current capitulation to flush out, and then it becomes a buy for years.
Q: Does the adoption of a digital currency impact the economy?
A: No, I think anything digital money is on hold for the foreseeable future as the FTX disaster unfolds.
Q: Do you like Salesforce (CRM)?
A: Yes, long-term. It’s also in a capitulation “catch a falling knife” stage. Wait for that to finish—better to buy it on the way up than on the way down is all I can say.
Q: Will there be any restrictions on copper mining (FCX)?
A: Not that I can think of—we’re looking at an enormous shortage of copper going forward and a future copper shock. Most of this is produced in emerging markets that have no environmental restrictions, which is why it happens there, like Chile. So yes, looking for new copper sources will be one of the big plays of this decade.
Q: Do you think the market will bottom in 2023?
A: Yes, if it hasn’t already.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Peleliu in 1978 with a Japanese 8 Inch Gun
Global Market Comments
November 18, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 16 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TSLA), (JNK), (HYG) or (TLT), (UUP), (FXE), (FXC), (FXA), (ALB), (FCX), (PYPL), (FXI), (GLD), (CCJ), (BHP), (RCL)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the November 16 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley in California.
Q: What do you see Tesla (TSLA) moving to from here until next year?
A: Not much; I mean if you’re lucky, Tesla won’t move at all. The problem is Twitter is looking like a disaster of huge proportions—firing half the staff on day one? Never good for building a business. Tesla has also been tied to the rest of big tech, which has been in awful condition and may not see a continuous move upward until the Fed actually starts lowering interest rates in the second quarter of next year. Tesla could be dead money here for a while; eventually, a company growing at 50% a year will go up—especially when it’s just had a 50% decline in the share price. As to when that is, I don’t know, and asking me 15 more times will get you just the same answer.
Q: Should we start piling into iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) longs now or wait?
A: You go now. Every day you waited meant paying one point more in TLT. I think the bottom is in; we have a 20-30 point move ahead of us. Everybody in the world is now trying to get into this trade, just like I spent all this year trying to get out of it. And if anything, November CPI could be a long term-term top in inflation, especially if we came in with another cold number. So, I would start scaling in now, even though we’re over $100 in the (TLT) today and I first recommended this around $95.
Q: If the Fed keeps raising interest rates, will the US Treasury market fall?
A: Probably not because the Fed only has control of overnight interest rates—the discount rate, the interbank rate—whereas the (TLT) is a 10-to-20-year maturity bond. No matter what short term rates do, the inversion will just keep getting bigger, but in fact, the bond market itself was yielding 4.46%, yielding 8% with junk, has bottomed and will probably start going up from here. So that is the difference between the Fed and what the actual market does.
Q: Do you prefer Junk (JNK), (HYG), or (TLT)?
A: I always go for the highest risk. Junk has about an 8% yield here compared to 3.75% for the TLT. By the way, if you want to do one trade and go to sleep, buy the junk on 2 to 1 margin, get your 16% yield next year, and just take a one-year vacation. That’s what some people do.
Q: When you say the dollar is going to go down what do you mean?
A: I mean the US dollar, while Canadian (FXC) and Australian dollars (FXA) will go up.
Q: What is the best time to buy US dollars?
A: Maybe in five years, as it could go down for five or 10 years from here, now that it’s going to imminently give up its yield advantage.
Q: What's the forecast for casinos?
A: I think casinos do better. Las Vegas was absolutely packed, you couldn’t get into the best hotels—people are spending money like crazy.
Q: What’s the best way to play (TLT)?
A: With a one-year LEAP. I put out the $95/$100 last week for my concierge members. Here, you probably want to do the $100/$105; that’ll still give you a one-year return of 100%.
Q: How do you short the dollar?
A: There are loads of short dollar ETFs out there, or you can just sell short the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), which is the dollar basket, or buy the (FXA) or (FXE).
Q: Freeport McMoRan (FCX) just went from 25 to 38; is it time to take a profit and re-enter at a lower point?
A: Short term yes, long term no. My long-term target for (FCX) is $100 because of the exponential growth of copper demand caused by EV production going from 1.5 million to 20 million a year in the next 10 years. Each EV needs 200 pounds of copper, so by 2030, annual copper demand for EVs only will be 20 billion pounds. In 2021, the total annual global copper production was 46.2 billion pounds. In order words, global copper production has to double in eight years just to accommodate EV growth only.
Q: Do you think there’ll be a rail worker strike?
A: I have no idea, but it will be a disaster if there is. There’s your recession scenario.
Q: What strike prices do you like for a Tesla LEAP?
A: Anything above here really. You could be cautious and do something like a $200/$210 two years out—that has a double in it. Or you could be more adventurous and go for a 400% return with like a $250/$260 in two years. I’m almost sure that we’ll have a major recovery in Tesla within two years.
Q: What’s your opinion on PayPal (PYPL) and Albemarle (ALB)?
A: I’m trying to stay away from the fintech area, partly because it’s tech and partly because the banks are recapturing a lot of the business they were losing to fintech a couple of years ago by moving into fintech themselves. That is the story and we’re clearly seeing that in the share prices of both banks and PayPal. I like Albemarle because the demand for lithium going forward is almost exponential.
Q: What’s your thought on the Australian dollar (AUD)?
A: Buy it with both hands as it is going to parity. Australia is a great indirect play on trade with China (FXI), gold (GLD), uranium (CCJ), and iron ore (BHP). It’s a great play on the recovery of the global economy, which will start next year.
Q: What do you think about Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)?
A: Probably a buy but remember all the cruise lines will be impaired to some extent by the massive debts they had to take on to survive two years of shutdown with the pandemic. I took the Queen Victoria last July on their Norwegian Fjord cruise, and it had not been operated for two years. None of the staff had any idea what to do. I had to show them.
Q: Will big tech have a good second half?
A: Probably, but it’s going to be a slow first quarter, and I think if we start getting actual cuts in interest rates, then it’s going to be off to the races for tech and they’ll all go to all-time highs as they always do.
Q: How come you haven’t issued any trade alerts yet on the currencies?
A: Calling a five-year turnaround is a big job. Now that we have the turnaround in play, we’re in dip-buying mode. So, you will see these in the future. But I also have to look at what currency trades are offering compared to other trades in other asset classes. And for the last year or two, the big opportunities have all been in stocks. You had volatility constantly visiting the mid $30s, you didn’t get that in the currencies, and more money was to be made in stock trades than foreign currency trades. That is changing now; let's see if we have a sustainable trend and if we get a good entry point. There’s a lot that goes into these trade alerts that you don’t always get to see. We only get a 95% success rate by being very careful in sending out trade alerts and that means long periods of doing nothing when the risk/reward is mediocre at best, which is right now. The services that guarantee you a trade alert every day all lose money.
Q: What is the recommended minimum portfolio size to amortize the cost of the concierge service?
A: I tell people to have a half a million in assets because we want people who are financially sophisticated to understand what we’re telling them. That said, we do have people with as little as 100,000 in the concierge service and they usually make the money back on the first trade. This is a very sophisticated high-return, very active service. You get my personal cell phone number and all that, plus your own dedicated website, and specific concierge-only research. It’s a much higher level of service. It’s by application only and we currently have no places available for new concierge members. However, if you’re interested, we can put you on the waitlist so that when another millionaire retires, we can open up a space.
Q: Despite recent moves, the algo looks bearish. There are lots of mixed signals.
A: Yes, it does. And yes, that’s often the case when the market timing index hangs around 50.
Q: Do concierges go for short term moves?
A: No, concierges are looking for the big, long-term trades that they can just buy and forget about. That is where the big money is made. At least 90% of the people that try day trading lose money but make all the brokers rich.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH or Technology Letter, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
