Global Market Comments
April 21, 2021
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NEVER WORKS)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)
Global Market Comments
April 21, 2021
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NEVER WORKS)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)
Global Market Comments
December 30, 2020
(WILL SYNBIO SAVE OR DESTROY THE WORLD?),
(XLV), (XPH), (XBI), (IMB), (GOOG), (AAPL), (CSCO), (BIIB)
Global Market Comments
December 28, 2020
SPECIAL ISSUE ABOUT THE FAR FUTURE
(PEEKING INTO THE FUTURE WITH RAY KURZWEIL),
(GOOG), (INTC), (AAPL), (TXN)
This is the most important research piece you will ever read, bar none. But you have to finish it to understand why. So, I will get on with the show.
I have been hammering away at my followers during virtual investment conferences and webinars this year about one recurring theme. Things are good, and about to get better, a whole lot better.
The driver will be the exploding rate of technological innovation in electronics, biotechnology, and energy. The 2020s are shaping up to be another roaring twenties, and asset prices are going to go through the roof.
To flesh out some hard numbers about growth rates that are realistically possible and which industries will be the leaders, I hooked up with my old friend, Ray Kurzweil, one of the most brilliant minds in computer science.
Ray is currently a director of Engineering at Google (GOOG), heading up a team that is developing stronger artificial intelligence. He is an MIT grad, with a double major in computer science and creative writing. He was the principal inventor of the CCD flatbed scanner, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, and the commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.
When he was still a teenager, Ray was personally awarded a science prize by President Lyndon Johnson. He has received 20 honorary doctorates and has authored 7 books. It was upon Ray’s shoulders that many of today’s technological miracles were built.
His most recent book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, was a New York Times bestseller. In it, he makes hundreds of predictions about the next 100 years that will make you fall out of your chair.
I met Ray at one of my favorite San Francisco restaurants, Morton’s on Sutter Street. I ordered a dozen oysters; a filet mignon wrapped in bacon and drowned it all down with a fine bottle of Duckhorn merlot. Ray had a wedge salad with no dressing, a giant handful of nutritional supplements, and a bottle of water. That’s Ray, one cheap date.
The Future of Man
A singularity is defined as a single event that has monumental consequences. Astrophysicists refer to the big bang and black holes in this way. Ray’s singularity has humans and machines merging to become single entities, partially by 2040 and completely by 2100.
All of our thought processes will include built-in links to the cloud, making humans super smart. Skin that absorbs energy from the sun will eliminate the need to eat. Nanobots will replace blood cells, which are far more efficient at moving oxygen. A revolution in biotechnology will enable us to eliminate all medical causes of death.
Most organs can now be partially or completely replaced. Eventually, they all will become renewable by taking one of your existing cells and cloning it into a completely new organ. We will become much more like machines, and machines will become more like us.
The first industrial revolution extended the reach of our bodies, and the second is extending the reach of our minds.
And, oh yes, prostitution will be legalized and move completely online. Sounds like a turn-off? How about virtually doing it with your favorite movie star? Your favorite investment advisor? Yikes!
Ironically, one of the great accelerants towards this singularity has been the war in Iraq. More than 50,000 young men and women came home missing arms and legs (in Vietnam, these were all fatalities, thanks to the absence of modern carbon fiber body armor).
Generous government research budgets have delivered huge advances in titanium artificial limbs and the ability to control them only with thoughts. Quadriplegics can now hit computer keystrokes merely by thinking about them.
Kurzweil argues that exponentially growing information technology is encompassing more and more things that we care about, like health care and medicine. Reprogramming of biology will be the next big thing and is a crucial part of his “singularity.”
Our bodies are governed by obsolete genetic programs that evolved in a bygone era. For example, over millions of years, our bodies developed genes to store fat cells to protect against a poor hunting season in the following year. That gave us a great evolutionary advantage 10,000 years ago. But it is not so great now, with obesity becoming the country’s number one health problem.
We would love to turn off these genes through reprogramming, confident that the hunting at the supermarket next year will be good. We can do this in mice now, which in experiments, can eat like crazy, but never gain weight.
The happy rodents enjoy the full benefits of caloric restriction, with no hint of diabetes or heart disease. A product like this would be revolutionary, not just for us, health care providers, and the government, but, ironically, for fast-food restaurants as well.
Within the last five years, we have learned how to reprogram stem cells to rebuild the hearts of heart attack victims. The stem cells are harvested from skin cells, not human embryos, ducking the political and religious issue of the past.
And if we can turn off genes, why not the ones in cancer cells that enable them to pursue unlimited reproduction, until they kill their host? That development would cure all cancers and is probably only a decade off.
The Future of Computing
If this all sounds like science fiction, you’d be right. But Ray points out that humans have chronically underestimated the rate of technological innovation.
This is because humans evolved to become linear thinking animals. If a million years ago, we saw a gazelle running from left to right, our brains calculated that one second later, it would progress ten feet further to the right. That’s where we threw the spear. This gave us a huge advantage over other animals and is why we became the dominant species.
However, much of science, technology, and innovation grows at an exponential rate and is where we make our most egregious forecasting errors. Count to seven, and you get to seven. However, double something seven times and you get to a billion.
The history of the progress of communications is a good example of an exponential effect. Spoken language took hundreds of thousands of years to develop. Written language emerged thousands of years, books in a hundred years, the telegraph in a century, and telephones 50 years later.
Some ten years after Steve Jobs brought out his Apple II personal computer, the growth of the Internet went hyperbolic. Within three years of the iPhone launch, social media exploded out of nowhere.
At the beginning of the 20th century, $1,000 bought 10 X -5th power worth of calculations per second in our primitive adding machines. A hundred years later a grand got you 10 X 8th power calculations, a 10 trillion-fold improvement. The present century will see gains many times.
The iPhone itself is several thousand times smaller, a million times cheaper, and billion times more powerful than computers of 40 years ago. That increases price per performance by the trillions. More dramatic improvements will accelerate from here.
Moore’s law is another example of how fast this process works. Intel (INTC) founder Gordon Moore published a paper in 1965 predicting a doubling of the number of transistors on a printed circuit board every two years. Since electrons had shorter distances to travel, speeds would double as well.
Moore thought that theoretical limits imposed by the laws of physics would bring this doubling trend to end by 2018 when the gates become too small for the electrons to pass through. For decades, I have read research reports predicting that this immutable deadline would bring an end to innovation and technological growth and bring an economic Armageddon.
Ray argues that nothing could be further from the truth. A paradigm shift will simply allow us to leapfrog conventional silicon-based semiconductor technologies and move on to bigger and better things. We did this when we jumped from vacuum tubes to transistors in 1949, and again in 1959 when Texas Instruments (TXN) invented the first integrated circuit.
Paradigm shifts occurred every ten years in the past century, every five years in the last decade, and will occur every couple of years in the 2020s. So fasten your seatbelts!
Nanotechnology has already allowed manufacturers to extend the 2018 Moore’s Law limit to 2022. On the drawing board are much more advanced computing technologies, including calcium-based systems, using the alternating direction of spinning electrons, and nanotubes.
Perhaps the most promising is DNA-based computing, a high research priority at IBM and several other major firms. I earned my own 15 minutes of fame in the scientific world 40 years ago as a member of the first team ever to sequence a piece of DNA, which is why Ray knows who I am.
Deoxyribo Nucleic Acid makes up the genes that contain the programming that makes us who we are. It is a fantastically efficient means of storing and transmitting information. And it is found in every single cell in our bodies, all 10 trillion of them.
The great thing about DNA is that it replicates itself. Just throw it some sugar. That eliminates the cost of building the giant $2 billion silicon-based chip fabrication plants of today.
The entire human genome is a sequential binary code containing only 800 MB information, which after you eliminate redundancies, has a mere 30-100 MB of useful information, about the size of an off-the-shelf software program, like Word for Windows. Unwind a single DNA molecule, and it is only six feet long.
What this means is that, just when many believe that our computer power is peaking, it is in fact just launching on an era of exponential growth. Supercomputers surpassed human brain computational ability in 2012, about 10 to the 16th power (ten quadrillions) calculations per second.
That power will be available on a low-end laptop by 2020. By 2050, this prospective single laptop will have the same computing power of the entire human race, about 9 billion individuals. It will also be small enough to implant in our brains.
The Future of the Economy
Ray is not really that interested in financial markets, or for that matter, making money. Where technology will be in a half-century and how to get us there are what get his juices flowing. However, I did manage to tease a few mind-boggling thoughts from him.
At the current rate of change, the 21st century will see 200 times the technological progress that we saw in the 20th century. Shouldn’t corporate profits, and therefore share prices, rise by as much?
Technology is rapidly increasing its share of the economy and increasing its influence on other sectors. That’s why tech has been everyone’s favorite sector for the past 30 years and will remain so for the foreseeable future. For two centuries, technology has been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the economy and creating new ones at the top.
Stock analysts and investors make a fatal flaw estimating future earnings based on the linear trends of the past, instead of the exceptional growth that will occur in the future.
In the last century, the Dow appreciated from 100 to 10,000, an increase of 100 times. If we grow at that rate in this century, the Dow should increase by 10,000% to 1 million by 2100. But so far, we are up only 6%, even though we are already 14 years into the new century.
The index is seriously lagging but will play catch-up in a major way during the 2020s when economic growth jumps from 2% to 4% or more, thanks to the effects of massively accelerating technological change.
Some 100 years ago, one-third of jobs were in farming, one-third were in manufacturing, and one third in services. If you predicted then that in a century, farming and manufacturing would each be 3% of total employment and that something else unknown would come along for the rest of us, people would have been horrified. But that’s exactly what happened.
Solar energy use is also on an exponential path. It is now 1% of the world’s supply but is only seven doublings away from becoming 100%. Then we will consume only one 10,000th of the sunlight hitting the earth. Geothermal energy offers the same opportunities.
We are only running out of energy if you limit yourself to 19th century methods. Energy costs will plummet. Eventually, energy will be essentially free when compared to today’s costs, further boosting corporate profits.
Hypergrowth in technology means that we will be battling with deflation for the rest of the century, as the cost of production and price of everything falls off a cliff. That makes our 10-year Treasury bonds a steal at a generous 2.60% yield, a full 460 basis points over the real long-term inflation rate of negative 2% a year.
US Treasuries could eventually trade down to the 0.40% yields seen in Japan only a couple of years ago. This means that the bull market in bonds is still in its early stages and could continue for decades.
The upshot for all of these technologies will rapidly eliminate poverty, not just in the US but around the world. Each industry will need to continuously reinvent its business model or disappear.
The takeaway for investors that stocks, as well as other asset prices, are now wildly undervalued, given their spectacular future earnings potential. It also makes the Dow target of 1 million by 2100 absurdly low, and off by a factor of 10 or even 100. Will we be donning our “Dow 100 Million” then?
Other Random Thoughts
As we ordered dessert, Ray launched into another stream of random thoughts. I asked for Morton’s exquisite double chocolate mousse. Ray had another handful of supplements. Yep, Mr. Cheap Date.
The number of college students has grown from 50,000 to 12 million since the 1870s. A kid in Africa with a cell phone has more access to accurate information than the president of the United States did 15 years ago.
The great superpower, the Soviet Union, was wiped out by a few fax machines distributing information in 1991.
Company offices will become entirely virtual by 2025.
Cows are very inefficient at producing meat. In the near future, cloned muscle tissue will be produced in factories, disease-free, and at a fraction of the present cost, without the participation of the animal. PETA will be thrilled.
Use of nanomaterials to build ultra-light but ultra-strong cars cut fuel consumption dramatically. Battery efficiencies will improve by 10 to 100 times. Imagine powering Tesla Model S1 with a 10-pound battery! Advances in nanotube construction mean the weight of the vehicle will drop from the present 3 tons to just 100 pounds but will be far safer.
Ray is also on a scientific advisory panel for the US Army. Uncertain about my own security clearance, he was reluctant to go into detail. Suffice it to say that the weight of an M1 Abrams main battle tank will shrink from 70 tons to 1 ton but will be 100 times stronger.
A zero-tolerance policy towards biotechnology by the environmental movement exposes their intellectual and moral bankruptcy. Opposing a technology with so many positive benefits for humankind and the environment will inevitably alienate them from the media and the public, who will see the insanity of their position.
Artificial intelligence is already far more prevalent than you understand. The advent of strong artificial intelligence will be the most significant development of this century. You can’t buy a book from Amazon, withdraw money from your bank, or book a flight without relying on AI.
Ray finished up by saying that by 2100, humans will have the choice of living in a biological, or in a totally virtual, online form. In the end, we will all just be files.
Personally, I prefer the former, as the best things in life are biological and free!
I walked over to the valet parking, stunned and disoriented by the overload of insight I had just obtained, and it wasn’t just the merlot talking, either! Imagine what they talk about at Google all day.
To buy The Singularity is Near at discount Amazon pricing, please click here. It is worth purchasing the book just to read Ray’s single chapter on the future of the economy.
Global Market Comments
October 13, 2020
(COFFEE WITH RAY KURZWEIL), (GOOG)
After spending a half-century in the investment business, I see all decisions boiling down to a single issue: Artificial Intelligence.
Speaking to people at the local PTA, American Legion, the VFW, the Commonwealth Club, people sitting next to me at high school football games, and even my own readers, this is the impression I get. AI is rapidly working its way into every aspect of our lives. But then, I live in Silicon Valley where everyone works in tech or in supporting service industries.
Companies that lead with AI, such as Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), and Microsoft (MSFT) will prosper mightily. Those that don’t will disappear.
Technology companies now comprise 26% of U.S. stock market capitalization and 50% of corporate profits. They are on their way to 100% on both counts. Other industries may see the occasional brief, frenetic stock market rallies, which will quickly fade away.
Investing now is really ALL about technology with the exception of biotech and healthcare, which you really can consider “soft” technology.
So, I thought it timely to catch up with my old friend, Dr. Ray Kurzweil, head of engineering at Google (GOOG), the co-founder of the Singularity University, and an early AI evangelist.
A decade ago, Kurzweil pitched Google co-founder Larry Page for a venture capital investment in an AI start-up. Larry responded by buying the entire company, even though it was only two weeks old. That brought Kurzweil in-house and gave him first call on Google’s prodigious resources.
To understand the recent spate of AI breakthroughs, you have to go back two years ago and see how a computer beat a human at the traditional Chinese game of Go. Long a goal of AI developers, Go is the most complex game ever played by humans, with 324 squares (18 X 18) and 361 stones. That means there are 2.08 X 10 to the 170th power possible moves, or more than double the number of electrons in the universe.
Scientists downloaded all known online Go moves in history, of which there were about 1 million. They then programmed a superfast mainframe to simulate 1 billion more Go moves. After that, beating all humans was a piece of cake.
You can apply this approach to more than just games. Google’s Waymo autonomous driving division let cars drive themselves 8 million miles and then simulated another 1 billion miles. That’s why they are so far ahead in the field.
You can also employ the same strategy when asking computers to identify new drugs by running simulations against a decoded human genome. The possibilities boggle the mind.
And the stock market? How about the accuracy of the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index, which takes market data from that last 100 years and then simulates another 1,000 years on top of that. And you wonder why it’s always right, and why I’m up 30% this year.
The fruits of those labors are found today in many Google services, such as Google Assistant and Google Home, which are growing smarter by the day. “Semantic Search” is the order of the day whereby searches are made on the basis of meaning and context, instead of my keywords alone. I work with Google all day long and the progression has been nothing less than astounding.
Just around the corner are “Smart Replies.” Google will be able to read 120,000 books, or 600 million sentences, in ½ second, and come up with the best three possible answers to every question of yours. If you’re willing to wait a few minutes, you can get the best three answers from every book ever written.
The term “AI” was coined at a famed conference at Dartmouth College in 1956. Don’t be intimidated. AI is simply superfast pattern recognition that any off-the-shelf Excel spreadsheet can accomplish done on ever faster supercomputers.
Kurzweil believes computers will pass the Turing Test by 2029, when their answers to any questions will be indistinguishable from a human. Miniaturization is another exponential trend that will place human intelligence on any smartphone by the 2030s.
Create a bionic link between your smart phone and your brain and the “singularity” is here, which Kurzweil believes will take place by the 2040s.
Kurzweil is a firm believer of the “Law of Accelerating Returns,” whereby the productivity of technology doubles every year. Costs drop by the similar amount, creating a radical deflation.
He argues that modern economic theories are broken, and I have argued this myself in the past. So much of technology’s output is free, and therefore immeasurable, that true GDP growth has been wildly underestimated.
And you wonder why inflation has been near zero for a decade, while the value of your home has doubled, and the efficiency of your cell phone has improved by a trillion-fold for a lower real price. Kurzweil expects 5 billion cell phones to be in circulation by 2020.
Moore’s law, where semiconductor price/performance doubled every year, reached its theoretical limits in 2016. All of the growth in processing power since then has been due to “3D Stacking,” where layers of processors are piled one on top of the other. The next generation of processors will see a once-unimaginable 96 layers.
And if you think this is all very interesting, wait a decade or two until we get quantum computers, which will increase computing power by a trillion-fold. Quantum computers rely on the infinite number of directions electrons can spin, rather than the simple on or off gates of traditional legacy computers. To learn more about quantum computing, please read my last piece on the subject by clicking here.
Sometime in 2019, Kurzweil published a sequel to his last book called “The Singularity is Nearer.” It no doubt was the AI blockbuster of the year.
Before that, he launched into fiction for the first time, publishing “Danielle” in January, which is about a girl who solves all the problems of the world by the age of 22 with the tools we have available to us today. To learn more about this project and to get a copy of the book, please visit www.danielleworld.com.
Global Market Comments
October 9, 2020
(THE NEW AI BOOK THAT INVESTORS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR),
(GOOG), (FB), (AMZN), MSFT), (BABA), (BIDU),
(TENCENT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (LRCX)
A better headline for this piece would be “The Future of You,” as artificial intelligence is about to become so integral to your work, your investment portfolio, and even your very existence that you won’t be able to live without it quite literally.
A blockbuster book about the state of play on all things AI was released on September 25, 2018 and I managed to obtain and read an advanced copy. It is entitled: AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order by Dr. Kai-Fu Lee.
The bottom line: The future is even more unbelievable than you remotely imagined. We are at the very early days of this giant megatrend, and the investment opportunities will be nothing less than spectacular.
And here is a barn burner. The price of AI is dropping fast as hundreds of thousands of new programmers pour into the field. Those $10 million signing bonuses are about to become a thing of the past.
Dr. Lee is certainly someone to take seriously. He obtained one of the first PhDs in AI from Carnegie Mellon University. He was the president of Google (GOOG) China and put in stints at Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL). Today, he is the CEO of Sinovation Ventures, the largest AI venture capital firm in China, and is a board director of Alibaba (BABA).
AI is nothing more than deep learning, or super pattern recognition. Dr. Lee dates the onset of artificial intelligence to 1952, when an IBM mainframe computer learned to play checkers and beat human opponents. By 1955, it learned to develop strategies on its own.
Dr. Lee sees the AI field ultimately divided into two spheres of dominance, the U.S. and China. No one else is devoting a fraction of the resources needed to become a serious player. The good news is that Russia and Iran are nowhere in the game.
While the U.S. dominates in the original theory and algorithms that founded AI, China is about to take the lead in applications. It can do this because it has access to mountains of data that dwarf those available in America. China processes three times more mobile phones, five times more Internet customers, 10 times more eat-out orders, and 50 times more mobile transactions. In a future where data is currency, this is huge.
The wake-up call for China in applications took place two years ago when U.S. and Korean AI programs beat grandmasters in the traditional Chinese game of Go. Long a goal of AI programmers, this great leap forward took place 20 years earlier than had been anticipated. This created an AI stampede in the Middle Kingdom that led to the current bubble.
The result has been applications that are still in the realm of science fiction in the U.S. The Chinese equivalent of eBay (EBAY), Taobao, doesn’t charge fees because its customer base is so big it can remain profitable on ad revenues only. Want to be more beautiful in your selfies sent to friends? A Chinese app will do that for you, Beauty Plus.
The Chinese equivalent of Yelp, Dianping, has 600,000 deliverymen on mopeds. The number of takeout meals is so vast that it has been able to drop delivery costs from $6 a meal to 60 cents. As a result, traditional restaurants are dying out in China.
Teachers in Chinese schools no longer take attendance. Students are checked off when they enter the classroom by facial recognition software. And heaven help you if you jaywalk in a Chinese city. Similar software will automatically issue you a citation with a fine and send it to your home.
Credit card fraud is actually on the decline in China as dubious transactions are blocked by facial matching software. The bank simply calls you, asks you to look into your phone, takes your picture, and then matches it with the image they have on file.
Dr. Lee sees AI unfolding in four waves, and there are currently companies operating in every one of these (see graph below):
1) Internet AI
The creation of black boxes and specialized algorithms that opened the door to monetizing code. This was the path for today’s giants that dominate online commerce, Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), JD.com (JD), and Facebook (FB). Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), and Tencent followed.
2) Business AI
Think big data. This is the era we just entered where massive data from online customers, financial transactions, and healthcare led to the writing of new algorithms that maximize profitability. Suddenly, companies can turn magic knobs to achieve desired goals, such as stepping up penetration or monetization.
3) Perception AI
Using trillions of sensors worldwide, analog data on any movement, facial expression, sound, and image are converted into digital data, and then mined for conclusions by more advanced algorithms. Cameras are suddenly everywhere. Amazon’s Alexa is the first step in this process, where your conversations are recorded and then mined for key words about your every want and desire.
Think of autonomous fast food where you walk in your local joint and it immediately recognizes you, offers you your preferred dishes, and then auto bills your online account for your purchase. Amazon has already done this with a Whole Foods stores.
4) Autonomous AI
Think every kind of motion. AI will get applied to autonomous driving, local shuttles, factory forklifts, assembly lines, and inspections of every kind. Again, data and processing demand take an enormous leap upward. Tesla (TSLA), Waymo (GOOG), and Uber are already very active in this field.
The book focuses a lot on the future of work. Dr. Lee creates a four-part scatter chart predicting the viability of several types of skills based on optimization, compassion, creativity, and strategy (see below).
If you are a truck driver, in customer support, or a dishwasher, or engage in any other repetitive and redundant profession, your outlook is grim. If you can supplement AI, such as a CEO, economist, or marketing head, you’ll do fine. People who can do what AI can’t, such as teachers and artists, will prosper.
The Investment Angle
There have been only two ways to invest in AI until now. You can buy shares in any of the seven giants above whose shares have already risen for 100- or 1,000-fold.
You can invest in the nets and bolts parts providers such as NVIDIA (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), and Lam Research (LRCX), which provide the basic building blocks for the Internet infrastructure.
Fortunately, for our paid subscribers, the Mad Hedge Trade Alert Service caught all of these very early.
What’s missing is the “in-between companies,” which are out of your reach because they are locked up in university labs or venture capital funds. Many of these never see the light of day as public companies because they get taken over by the tech giants above. It’s effectively a closed club that won’t let outsiders in. It’s a dilemma that vexes any serious technology investor.
When quantum computing arrives in a decade, you can take all the functionality above and multiply it by a trillion-fold, while costs drop a similar amount. That’s when things really get interesting. But then, I’ve seen trillion-fold increases in technology before.
I hope I live to see another.
Global Market Comments
September 23, 2020
(AN INSIDER’S GUIDE TO THE NEXT DECADE OF TECH INVESTMENT),
(AMZN), (AAPL), (NFLX), (AMD), (INTC), (TSLA), (GOOG), (FB)
Global Market Comments
June 11, 2020
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOESN’T WORK)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)
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