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Tag Archive for: (GOOGL)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 8, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 8, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CHATBOT SINKS STOCK 8%)
(GOOGL), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-02-08 15:04:462023-02-08 23:46:40February 8, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Chatbots Sink Stock 8%

Tech Letter

Down 8% on a faulty chatbot conversation – that’s what happened to Google’s (GOOGL) stock today.

That’s why we need to pare back the euphoria and nonstop celebration of ChatGPT.

Hold your horses.

It’s an emerging technology and could end up with chatbots chatting with other chatbots for little or no value.

My point is that it can still go very wrong from here.

Google’s stock swan dived on Wednesday after its own iteration of A.I. chatbot erroneously answered a question about the first usage of space telescopes via its promotional material.

It all lends itself to surmise that Google is way behind in this game and Microsoft has the situation by the scruff of the neck.

Only just a few days ago, Microsoft integrated the AI technology into the front page of its Bing search engine, and is available for user downloads on the Bing app.

The drop in share price meant that Google lost more than $100 billion off its market cap.

The service called Bard is to compete with the popular ChatGPT.

Despite the chatbot’s claim in the ad, NASA reports that the first photo of a planet outside the Milky Way was taken by the Very Large Telescope in 2004 — nearly 19 years before NASA’s Webb telescope.

Unpreparedness by Google could translate into a significant loss of ad revenue for Google’s cash cow Google search.

The desperation of throwing Bard out there not on their timeline could mean they are exposing a product that isn’t up to Google’s standards.

An AI chatbot that consistently delivers false answers will turn off an advertiser quicker than no AI chatbot.

Investing in Google is still worth it even if it takes time to correct the quality of their AI. because it is logical to give a good company the benefit of the doubt.

Another problem is that Google could be stuck with bad AI for a few years before it turns the corner.

For better or worse, they were forced to go public with whatever they had just for the optics of competition even if they are badly lagging behind.

The worst-case scenario is receiving a direct blow to the cranium in terms of total ad revenue.

Google is still relying on search to drive the rest of its business.

They earned over $200 billion in ad revenue in 2021.

This is the first threat to Google’s search model in a generation and the threat has them on their toes.

I do believe they possess the resources to solve this issue.

No doubt that Google CEO Sundar Pichai is throwing the kitchen sink to find and poach the best AI engineers to beef up the chatbot team.

Ultimately, the real new world of higher interest rates and high inflation environment means that your father’s tech playbook must be thrown out the window.

It’s quite evident that we are in the midst of a paradigm shift and new leaders during this shift will emerge.

History shows us that tech leaders of old have a habit of falling behind because they are too set in their ways to adapt to a world with new rules.

It might be so that at some point in the not-so-near future, we might need to set the search default to Bing.

How ironic?

 

 

chatbots

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-02-08 15:02:442023-03-01 21:46:30Chatbots Sink Stock 8%
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

OpenAI Blazes A Trail

Tech Letter

ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence chat tool created by OpenAI, burst onto the scene only a month ago in December 2022 when the service accumulated a few million subscribers in days.

Artificial intelligence has always been tabbed as the future – the future is now here.

Damn straight, and about time!

ChatGPT is a program that is able to carry on a text-based conversation by generating answers and replies using its artificial algorithm.

In many cases, the answers and replies seem so natural that it is almost impossible to differentiate between a real human and a piece of code.

This software is a game changer.

The piece of technology went viral only last month when its free version launched and students were the first to figure out its usefulness.

December 2022 could be looked back upon as the AHA moment when American students finally stopped needing to ever write essays and that’s exactly what has happened.

Then there is the question of why students securing degrees in fields like art history, language, or any humanity field need to go to school at all.

OpenAI has now rendered American universities worthless.

Aside from specific specialty fields like science, technology, and engineering, the case for students paying a bajillion dollars per year to attend some glorified adult day care center is marginal.

Technology has now democratized knowledge.

It’s not that surprising a big tech company would swoop in to take advantage - Microsoft and their CEO Satya Nadella are in talks with OpenAI to invest $10 billion in ChatGPT-owner OpenAI as part of funding that will value the firm at $29 billion.

Hard to understand why Apple or Meta isn’t in the running.

Microsoft will also get 75% of OpenAI's profits until it recoups its initial investment.

OpenAI expects $200 million in revenue next year and $1 billion by 2024.

OpenAI charges developers licensing its technology about a penny or a little more to generate 20,000 words of text, and about 2 cents to create an image from a written prompt.

This could be the beginning of a foray into intense competition with Google’s search engine by Microsoft’s Bing.

Bing has been deadweight for many years and I hardly know anyone who actually uses it.

The effectiveness of Bing search is mediocre at best and Google search has always been the best in class.

I believe that Microsoft will unleash ChatGPT to skew future content towards its Bing search engine.

If one opens Google Maps on a different browser, it hardly works.

I expect some sort of similar correlation with Microsoft Bing that ties ChatGPT-based content with the Microsoft Bing browser.

Then there is the ChatGPT foreign language potential which could potentially usurp Google Translate in the future simply because it becomes better than Google Translate.  

Google translate has cornered the foreign language translation market in a browser market and that could easily be reversed with ChatGPT once it starts integrating with many foreign languages.

I am surprised Google let this one get away because they are directly threatened by it and Google’s acceleration is decelerating.

Microsoft is clearly a winner from this investment and I can expect for its Bing search engine to slowly steal market share from Google search as it integrates ChatGPT into its in-house browser. The American university system is clearly a loser here with most college degrees not worth the ink the diplomas are written on. Don’t waste money on obsolete education.

Buy Microsoft shares on the dip.

 

chatgpt

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-11 16:02:392023-01-31 14:15:21OpenAI Blazes A Trail
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Fin-Tech Automation and Banking

Tech Letter

Automation is taking place at warp speed displacing employees from all walks of life. 

Next could be you!

According to a recent report, the U.S. financial industry will depose of 200,000 workers in the next decade because of automating efficiencies.

Yes, humans are going the way of the dodo bird and banking will effectively become algorithms working for a handful of executives and engineers.

The x-factor in this equation is the $250 billion annually that banks spend on technological development in-house which is second highest after the traditional tech giants.

Welcome to the world of lower cost, shedding wage bills, and boosting performance rates.

We forget to realize that employee compensation eats up around 50% of bank expenses.

The 200,000 job trimmings would result in 10% of the U.S. banking sector getting axed.

The hyped-up “golden age of banking” should deliver extraordinary savings and premium services to the customer at no extra cost.

This iteration of mobile and online banking has delivered functionality that no generation of customers has ever seen.

Gutting bank jobs will naturally occur in the call centers first, because they are the low-hanging fruit for the automated chatbots.

A few years ago, chatbots were suboptimal, even spewing out arbitrary profanity, but they have slowly crawled up in performance metrics to the point where some customers are unaware they are communicating with an artificially engineered algorithm.

The wholesale integration of automating the back-office staff isn’t contained to the rudimentary part of the staff.

The front office will experience a 30% drop in numbers sullying the predated ideology that front office staff are irreplaceable heavy hitters.

The front-office staff has already felt the brunt of downsizing with purges carried out from 2022 representing a twelfth year of continuous decline.

Front-office traders and brokers are being rapidly replaced by software engineers as banks follow the wider trend of every company transitioning into a tech company.

The infusion of artificial intelligence will lower mortgage processing costs by 30% and the accumulation of hordes of data will advance the marketing effort into a potent, multi-pronged, hybrid cloud-based, and hyper-targeted strategy.

The last two human bank hiring waves are a distant memory.

The most recent spike came in the 7 years after the dot com crash of 2001 until the sub-prime crisis of 2008 adding around half a million jobs on top of the 1.5 million that existed then.

After the subsidies wear off from the pandemic, I do believe that the banking sector will quietly put in the call to trim even more.

The longest and most dramatic rise in human bankers was from 1935 to 1985, a 50-year boom that delivered over 1.2 million bankers to the U.S. workforce.

This type of human hiring will likely never be seen again in the U.S. financial industry.

And if you thought that this phenomenon was limited to the U.S., think again, Europe is by far the biggest culprit by already laying off 100,000 employees in 2022.

Even Europe’s banking jewel Credit Suisse is on the brink of collapsing and in need of a bailout.

Don’t tell your kid to get into banking, because they will most likely be feeding on scraps at that point.  

An interesting tech stock that integrates financial payments is Square (SQ) which has given back its entire pandemic performance.

As US interest rates are expected to peak and go down in 2023, I recommend dollar cost average into this stock at bargain basement prices.

 

THE LAST STAGE OF HUMAN-FACING BANK SERVICES IS NOW!

 

bank

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-21 14:02:452023-01-02 20:08:33Fin-Tech Automation and Banking
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 19, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 19, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GO STRAIGHT TO THE TOP WITH THE CLOUD)
(AMZN), (ZS), (CRM), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-19 16:04:062022-12-19 17:31:40December 19, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Go Straight To The Top With The Cloud

Tech Letter

Dealing with the Cloud works, and for every relevant tech company, this division serves as the pipeline to the CEO position.

If this isn’t the case for a tech company, then there’s something egregiously wrong with them!

Take Andy Jassy - he is the mastermind behind Amazon’s (AMZN) lucrative cloud computing division and was the man who succeeded company founder Jeff Bezos.

He was rewarded this important position based on his performance in the cloud and faces a daunting proposition of following Bezos as CEO.  

Bezos incorporated Amazon almost 30 years ago.

Jassy developed a highly profitable and market-leading business, Amazon Web Services, that runs data centers serving a wide range of corporate computing needs.

Cloud 101

If you've been living under a rock the past few years, the cloud phenomenon hasn't passed you by and you still have time to cash in.

You want to hitch your wagon to cloud-based investments in any way, shape, or form.

Amazon leads the cloud industry it created.

It still maintains more than 30% of the cloud market. Microsoft would need to gain a lot of ground to even come close to this jewel of a business.

Amazon relies on AWS to underpin the rest of its businesses and that is why AWS contributes most of Amazon's total operating income.

Total revenue for just the AWS division would operate as a healthy stand-alone tech company if need be.

The future is about the cloud.

These days, the average investor probably hears about the cloud a dozen times a day.

If you work in Silicon Valley, you can quadruple that figure.

So, before we get deep into the weeds with this letter on cloud services, cloud fundamentals, cloud plays, and cloud Trade Alerts, let's get into the basics of what the cloud actually is.

Think of this as a cloud primer.

It's important to understand the cloud, both its strengths and limitations.

Giant companies that have it figured out, such as Salesforce (CRM) and Zscaler (ZS), are some of the fastest-growing companies in the world.

Understand the cloud and you will readily identify its bottlenecks and bulges that can lead to extreme investment opportunities. And that is where I come in.

Cloud storage refers to the online space where you can store data. It resides across multiple remote servers housed inside massive data centers all over the country, some as large as football fields, often in rural areas where land, labor, and electricity are cheap.

They are built using virtualization technology, which means that storage space spans across many different servers and multiple locations. If this sounds crazy, remember that the original Department of Defense packet-switching design was intended to make the system atomic bomb-proof.

As a user, you can access any single server at any one time anywhere in the world. These servers are owned, maintained, and operated by giant third-party companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which may or may not charge a fee for using them.

The most important features of cloud storage are:

1) It is a service provided by an external provider.

2) All data is stored outside your computer residing inside an in-house network.

3) A simple Internet connection will allow you to access your data at anytime from anywhere.

4) Because of all these features, sharing data with others is vastly easier, and you can even work with multiple people online at the same time, making it the perfect, collaborative vehicle for our globalized world.

Once you start using the cloud to store a company's data, the benefits are many.

No Maintenance

Many companies, regardless of their size, prefer to store data inside in-house servers and data centers.

However, these require constant 24-hour-a-day maintenance, so the company has to employ a large in-house IT staff to manage them - a costly proposition.

Thanks to cloud storage, businesses can save costs on maintenance since their servers are now the headache of third-party providers.

Instead, they can focus resources on the core aspects of their business where they can add the most value, without worrying about managing IT staff of prima donnas.

Greater Flexibility

Today's employees want to have a better work/life balance and this goal can be best achieved by letting them working remotely which effectively happened because of the public health situation. Increasingly, workers are bending their jobs to fit their lifestyles, and that is certainly the case here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

How else can I send off a Trade Alert while hanging from the face of a Swiss Alp?

Cloud storage services, such as Google Drive, offer exactly this kind of flexibility for employees.

With data stored online, it's easy for employees to log into a cloud portal, work on the data they need to, and then log off when they're done. This way a single project can be worked on by a global team, the work handed off from time zone to time zone until it's done.

It also makes them work more efficiently, saving money for penny-pinching entrepreneurs.

 

Better Collaboration and Communication

In today's business environment, it's common practice for employees to collaborate and communicate with co-workers located around the world.

For example, they may have to work on the same client proposal together or provide feedback on training documents. Cloud-based tools from DocuSign, Dropbox, and Google Drive make collaboration and document management a piece of cake.

These products, which all offer free entry-level versions, allow users to access the latest versions of any document so they can stay on top of real-time changes which can help businesses to better manage workflow, regardless of geographical location.

Data Protection

Another important reason to move to the cloud is for better protection of your data, especially in the event of a natural disaster. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on local data centers in New York City, forcing many websites to shut down their operations for days.

And we haven’t talked about the ransomware attacks by Eastern Europeans on energy company Colonial Pipeline and meat producer JBS Foods.

The cloud simply routes traffic around problem areas as if, yes, they have just been destroyed by a nuclear attack.

It's best to move data to the cloud, to avoid such disruptions because there your data will be stored in multiple locations.

This redundancy makes it so that even if one area is affected, your operations don't have to capitulate, and data remains accessible no matter what happens. It's a system called deduplication.

Lower Overhead

The cloud can save businesses a lot of money.

By outsourcing data storage to cloud providers, businesses save on capital and maintenance costs, money that in turn can be used to expand the business. Setting up an in-house data center requires tens of thousands of dollars in investment, and that's not to mention the maintenance costs it carries.

Plus, considering the security, reduced lag, up-time and controlled environments that providers such as Amazon's AWS have, creating an in-house data center seems about as contemporary as a buggy whip, a corset, or a Model T.

The cloud is where you want to be.

 

 

 

the cloud

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-19 16:02:582023-01-02 16:48:34Go Straight To The Top With The Cloud
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 16, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 16, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CONTENT IS KING)
(AMZN), (GOOGL), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-16 14:04:082022-11-16 18:25:03November 16, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Content is King

Tech Letter

It’s the death of websites.

I love doing presentations to small businesses in my free time, partly to stay in touch with the pulse of the industry’s minnows that have the unenviable task of fighting uphill against the behemoths.

It’s bad enough that the tech giants have scaled locally turning one’s local playground into a disadvantage.

The presentation is aptly titled "Content is King... But Only Through One’s Ownership" where the same parallels are explored and unpacked for my audience.

Proprietary Content – must be yours and you must own it on your own turf - your blog, your vlog, your app, and so on, it goes for everything.

Repurposing content on other platforms as a supplement to your own is one thing, but the moment you adopt an enemy platform as your main platform, that’s your coup de grâce.

SMEs (small businesses enterprise) believe it’s plausible to work with the higher-ups, but don’t forget the higher-ups have every incentive to cut you off from the fountain of youth.

One could say the best skill big tech has today is undermining its competition.

Facebook doesn’t allow posting content that criticizes Facebook, have you ever wondered why?

Website innovation has ground to a halt because of the PageRank algorithm from Google - everybody is making websites the same, a top nav, descriptive text, a smattering of images, and a handful of other elements arranged similarly.

Google’s algorithms and the self-regulating nature of its ecosystem have perverted the chance to have a unique online experience.

Most internet users have discovered that most websites don’t work well and the execution is lousy.

Silicon Valley now has a monopoly on websites.

Because websites are the key to building businesses, Silicon Valley is now using the concept of websites and their position as de-facto moderators to prevent others from developing proper websites, killing off the competition.

Alphabet is notorious for ranking in-house products at the top of page one of any Google search.

Amazon has followed the same practice by sticking its in-house brands at the top of any Amazon search on Amazon.com.

Websites are used to give businesses a chance.

What’s next?

Once we migrate the lion’s share of content to voice platforms over the next 15 years, Google Home, Apple HomePod, or Amazon Alexa could easily choose to remove Joe’s Furniture Moving Business information because they aren’t following arbitrary “policies.”

Big tech will be the gatekeepers of all global information, business, and development in the world and we will need to satisfy their algorithms to get our own content uploaded on their voice platforms.

And because of the nature of voice, users cannot see what else is out there, users will only hear what these companies tell us offering an outsized opportunity to manipulate the user experience generating more dollars for these powerful platforms.

As we inch towards the day the US Central Bank will drop the Federal Funds rate, minus Facebook, readers must load up the truck and pile into these monopolistic tech stocks.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/speakers.png 485 570 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-16 14:02:062022-12-02 03:21:13Content is King
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 10, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 10, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TEN MORE TRENDS TO BET THE RANCH ON),
(AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (TSLA), (CRSP), (EDIT), (NTLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-10 09:06:482022-11-10 14:08:41November 10, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 7, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 7, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE FED GIVETH AND THE FED TAKETH AWAY)
(SPY), (TLT), (JNK), (AAPL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (META)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-07 10:04:432022-11-07 11:05:07November 7, 2022
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