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Tag Archive for: (GS)

MHFTR

September 19 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader September 19 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!

Q: Do you expect a correction in the near term?

A: Yes. In fact, we may even see it in October. Markets (SPY) have been in extreme, overbought territory for a month now, the macro background is terrible, trade wars are accelerating, and interest rates are rising sharply. The only thing holding the market up is the prospect of one more quarter of good earnings, which companies start reporting next month. So once that’s out of the way, be careful, because people are just hanging on to the last final quarter before they sell.

Q: I just got out of my cannabis stock, what should I do now?

A: Thank your lucky stars you got away with that—it was an awful trade and you made money on it anyway. Stay away in droves. After all, the cannabis industry is all about growing a weed and how hard is that? This means the barriers to entry are zero. In fact, I’m thinking of growing some in my own backyard. My tomatoes do well, so why not Mary Jane?

Q: The Volatility Index (VIX) is now at $11.79—should I buy?

A: No, the rule of thumb for the (VIX) is to wait for it to sit on a bottom for one to two weeks and let some time decay work itself out. You’ll see that in the ETF, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX). When it stops breaking to new lows, that means it’s ready for another bounce. I would wait.

Q: What do you think about banks here? Is it time to get in?

A: No, these are not promising charts. If anything, I’d say Goldman Sachs (GS) is getting ready to do a head and shoulders and go to new lows. I would stay away from financials unless I see more positive evidence. The industry is ripe for disruption from fintech, which has already started. That’s said, they are way overdue for a dead cat bounce. That’s a trade, not an investment.

Q: Would you short Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) here?

A: No. Shorting is what I would have done six months ago; now it’s far too late. If anything, I would be a buyer of those stocks here, based on the possibility that we will see progress or an end to the trade war in the next couple of months. If the trade wars continue, they will put the U.S. in recession next year, and then you don’t want to own stocks anywhere.

Q: Is Apple (AAPL) going to get hit by the trade wars?

A: So far, this has not been the case, but they are whistling past the graveyard right now—an obvious target in the trade wars from both sides. For instance, the U.S. could suddenly start applying a 25% import duty to iPhones from China, which would make your $1,000 phone a $1,250 phone. Similarly, the Chinese could hit it in China, restricting their manufacturing in one way or another. I’m being very cautious of Apple for this reason. The stock already has one $10 drop just because of this worry.

Q: Can the U.S. ban China from selling bonds?

A: No, they can’t. The global U.S. Treasury bond market (TLT) is international by nature—there is no way to stop the selling. It would take a state of war to reach the point where the Fed actually seizes China’s U.S. Treasury bond holdings. The last time that happened was when Iran seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979. Iran didn’t get its money back until the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015. Before that you have to go back to WWII, when the U.S. seized all German and Japanese assets. They never got those back.

Q: What are your thoughts on the chip sector?

A: Stay away short-term because of the China trade war, but it’s a great buy on the long term. These stocks, like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) have another double in them. The fundamentals are outrageously good.

Q: Is the market crazy, or what?

A: Yes, it is crazy, which is why I’m keeping 90% cash and 10% on the short side. But “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid,” as my friend John Maynard Keynes used to say.

Q: What’s your take on the Consumer Staples sector (XLP)?

A: It will likely go up for the rest of the year, into the Christmas period; it’s a fairly safe sector. The uptrend will remain until it doesn’t.

Q: Should we buy TBT now?

A: No, the time to buy the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) was two months ago. Now is the time to sell and take profits. I don’t think 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (TLT) are going above 3.11% in this cycle, and we are now at 3.07%. Buy low and sell high, that’s how you make the money, not the opposite.

Q: Does this webinar get posted on the website?

A: Yes, but you have to log in to access it. Then hover your cursor over My Account and a drop-down menu magically appears. Click on Global Trading Dispatch, then the Webinars button, and the last nine years of webinars appear. Pick the webinar you want and click on the “PLAY” arrow. Just give us a couple of hours to get it up.

Q: Can Chinese companies use Southeast Asia as a conduit to export to the U.S.?

A: Yes. This is an old trick to bypass trade restrictions. For example, most of the Chinese steel coming into the U.S. is through third countries, like Singapore. Eventually they do get found out, at which point companies or imports from Vietnam will be identified as Chinese origin and get hit with the import duties anyway, but it could take a year or two for those illegal imports to get discovered. This has been going on ever since trade started.

Q: Will the currency crisis in Argentina and Turkey spread to a global contagion?

A: Yes, and this could be another cause of a global recession late next year. The canaries in the coal live there (EEM).

Q: Would you use the DOJ probe to buy into Tesla (TSLA)?

A: No, buy the car, not the stock as it is untradeable. This is in fact the third DOJ investigation Tesla has undergone since Trump came into office. The last one was over how they handled the $400 million they have in deposits for their 400,000 orders. It turns out it was all held in an escrow account. There are easier ways to make money. It’s a black swan a day with Tesla. This is what happens when you disrupt about half of the U.S. GDP all at once, including autos, the national dealer network, big oil, and advertising. All of these are among the largest campaign donors in the U.S.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time to Bring Out the Big Guns

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/JT-with-cannon-image-6-e1537472566812.jpg 528 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-21 01:07:452018-09-20 20:16:38September 19 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
MHFTR

August 14, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 14, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY BANKS HAVE PERFORMED SO BADLY THIS YEAR),
(JPM), (C), (GS), (SCHW), (WFC),
(HOW FREE ENERGY WILL POWER THE COMING ROARING TWENTIES),
(SPWR), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-08-14 01:23:362018-08-14 01:23:36August 14, 2018
MHFTR

Why Banks Have Performed So Badly This Year

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I went to the local branch of Wells Fargo Bank (WFC) yesterday, and I was appalled. The bank occupied the most expensive corner in town. It was staffed by a dozen people, all of whom spoke English as a second language.

Ask even the simplest question and they had to call a support center and wait 10 minutes on hold for the answer. It took an hour for me to open a checking account for one of my kids. The branch was in effect a glorified call center.

I thought, "This can't last." And it won't.

Banks were supposed to be the sector to own this year. They had everything going for them. The economy was booming, interest rates were rising, and regulations were falling like leaves in the fall.

Despite all these gale force fundamental tailwinds the banks have utterly failed to deliver. The gold standard J.P. Morgan is up only 8.46% on the year, while bad boy Citibank (C) is down 5.47%, and the vampire squid Goldman Sachs (GS) is off a gut-punching 10.27%. Where did the bull market go? Why have bank shares performed so miserably?

The obvious reason could be that the improved 2018 business environment was entirely discounted by the big moves we saw in 2017. Last year, banks were the shares to own with (JPM) shares up a robust 24.5%, while (C) catapulted by 29.3%.

It is possible that bank shares are acting like a very early canary in the coal mine, tweeting about an approaching recession. Loan growth has been near zero this year. That is not typical for a booming economy. It IS typical going into a recession.

When the fundamentals arrive as predicted but the stock fails to perform it can only mean one thing. The industry is undergoing a long-term structural change from which it may not recover. Yes, the bank industry may be the modern-day equivalent of the proverbial buggy whip maker just before Detroit took over the transportation business.

Managing a research service such as the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, it is easy to see how this is happening. Financial services are being disrupted on a hundred fronts, and the cumulative effect may be that it will no long exist.

This explains why this is the first bull market in history where there has been no new hiring by Wall Street. What happens when we go into a bear market? Employment will drop by half and those expensive national branch networks will disappear.

Financial services are still rife with endless fees, poor service, and uncompetitive returns. Online brokers such as Robin Hood (click here) will execute stock and option transactions for free. Now that overnight deposits actually pay a return they make their money on margin loans. They have no branch network but are still SIPC insured.

Legacy brokers such as Fidelity and Charles Schwab (SCHW) used to charge $25 a share to execute and are still charging $7.00 for full-service clients. And it's not as if their research has been so great to justify these high prices either. In a world that is getting Amazoned by the day, these high prices can't stand.

Regular online banking service also pay interest and are about to eat the big banks' lunch. Many now pay 1.75% overnight interest rates and offer free debit and credit cards, and checking accounts. Of course, none of these are household names yet, but they will be.

To win the long-term investment game you have to identify the industries of the future and run from the industries of the past. The legacy financial industry is increasingly looking like a story from the past.

 

 

 

 

 

Are Big Banks Ready for the Future?

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-08-14 01:22:162018-08-14 01:22:16Why Banks Have Performed So Badly This Year
MHFTR

June 8, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
June 8, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE TUESDAY, JUNE 12, 2018,
NEW ORLEANS, LA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(JUNE 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (TTT), (TBT), (AMLP), (IBB),
(SPY), (SDS), (SH), (GS), (BAC)

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MHFTR

June 6 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers' Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader June 6 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!

Q: What does the coming Kim Jong-un summit with North Korea mean for the market?

A: It means absolutely nothing for the market. The entire North Korean threat has been wildly exaggerated as a distraction from the chaos in Washington. So, you may get a one- or two-day rally if it's successful. If it's not expect a one- or two-day sell-off, but no more. Whatever North Korea agrees to, we will not see any follow through; they won't buy the Libyan model of denuclearizing North Korea for fear of their leader meeting the same end as Libya's Khadafy (i.e. being hunted and shot in a storm drain.) North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons.

Q: What do you do at market tops?

A: Well, hopefully if you're reading this letter you're long up the wazoo, so you sell everything you have. Then, wait for a double top in the market (which is clear as day) and falling volume. You start looking at things like the ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 ETF (SDS). That's the -2X version (there's the (SH), which is the -1X short S&P 500) and you just start buying outright puts on a lot of different things, particularly the overbought sectors of the market, which are generally pretty obvious. It's also good to look for a stock that has made a new high and has negative money flow.

Q: Why are the banks doing so poorly?

A: I believe they fully discounted all of this year's interest rate hikes last year when the stocks nearly doubled. We just talked about a technical setup; Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and other stocks had those bear setups. At this point, I believe they're coming down to a place of support and probably getting a decent dead cat bounce. They've had their sell-off, they had their run, and it was triggered by one of the best technical short setup patterns you'll see.

Q: Would you buy financials here?

A: Absolutely not. It's unclear why they're doing so badly, but I would not buy it with anyone's money. Their earnings growth is nowhere what you see with technology stocks.

Q: Is crude oil poised for the next leg up?

A: No, it's not. The oil game may be over if they rush to overproduce once again. It's clearly been artificially boosted to get the Saudi Aramco IPO done. After the end of the quota system, you can get oil back down to the $50s easily. I don't want to touch it here; if anything, I'm more inclined to buy it if we get down to the $50s, which would essentially be the February low.

Q: Is the U.S. dollar overbought here?

A: Yes. The dollar has had a great run all year, which is evident from the rising interest rates. It's done a 10% move up in a fairly short time, which is a lot for the foreign exchange market. It's way overbought; you could easily get a round of profit taking in the dollar, either going into or right after the next Fed interest rate hike in two weeks. I'm staying away from the currencies. There are too many better fish to fry in the equities.

Q: Can you expect Tech to keep going up after this next run?

A: Yes, I expect us to break out to a new high and give back some ground in a retest of the old high. The old high will then hold and then I expect a sort of slow grind up. Tech could well go up for the rest of 2018.

Q: If the S&P 500 is in a trading range, would you sell any rally?

A: Yes, but I'm going to wait for the rally to come to me; I'm not going to reach for any marginal trades. When the (SPY) gets to $280, I'll be looking very closely at the $285-$290 vertical bear put spread one or two months out. So, that peak should hold for the summer and you can make a good 25%-30% on that kind of spread.

Q: Would you buy Biotech here?

A: Yes, the chart setup here is looking very positive, and it's natural for people to rotate out of Tech to Biotech because the earnings growth is so dramatic. That's why I sent out a Trade Alert to buy the NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (IBB) yesterday. They have been unfairly held back by fears of drug pricing regulation, which has nothing to do with biotech, but it affects their share prices anyway. But so far, it has been all talk from Trump and no action. I think he's busy with North Korea and the trade wars anyway.

Q: My custodian won't let me sell short the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) so I bought the ProShares Ultra Pro Short 20+ Treasury Fund (TTT). Is that alright?

A: You definitely want to be short the Treasury bonds market for the next several years going forward, so you have the right idea. If the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield jumps from 2.95% today to 4% in a year as I expect, that takes the (TLT) down from $119 to $97. If you can't make money shorting bonds in that environment you should consider another line of work.

The problem with these 3X leveraged funds is that the cost of carry is very high. In the case of the (TTT) it is three times the 3.0% 10-year bond coupon you are shorting plus a 1% management fee for a total of 10% a year. For that reason, the 3X funds are really only good for day trading. You run into a similar problem with the 2X (TBT). This is why I use non-leveraged put spreads or outright puts for this asset class.

Q: Why are we seeing strength in the Alerian master limited partnership (AMLP) when oil prices are falling, and interest rates are rising? Shouldn't it be going the other way?

A: How about more buyers than sellers? There are so many retirees out there desperate for yield they will take on inordinate amounts of risk to get it. With an 8.0% dividend yield you always have an underlying bid for this ETF. That's why we have been recommending this since April. An 8% dividend can cover up a lot of sins, even when interest rates are rising and oil prices are falling. Also, the U.S. is infrastructure constrained now that production is approaching 11 million barrels a day. That is great for the kind of energy projects (AMLP) finances.

Q: What's the next support price for NVIDIA (NVDA)?

A: With the stock going straight up there is little need for support. Our 2018 target is $300. If you recall, we have been recommending this cutting-edge GPU manufacturer since $68, and people have made fortunes. Those who bought long dated deep out-of-the-money leaps $100 out made 1,000% on this Trade Alert 18 months ago. That said, the 200-day moving average at $213 looks rock solid.

Good luck and good trading to all.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-06-08 01:06:472018-06-08 01:06:47June 6 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
MHFTR

May 16, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 16, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHAT'S UP AT FACEBOOK?)

(FB), (NFLX), (GOOGL), (AMZN), (GS), (AAPL), (IBM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-16 01:06:272018-05-16 01:06:27May 16, 2018
MHFTR

What's Up at Facebook?

Tech Letter

Capitol Hill unleashed a healthy dose of criticism on Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg and he has mobilized the forces to avoid a repeat shellacking.

Zuckerberg's response has been to reshuffle his cabinet at the Menlo Park, CA, headquarters, and a few tell-tale signs offer a unique glimpse into Facebook's future.

Basically, something needed to change at Facebook.

The company single-handedly took the blame for the entire sector and was not the only company with a liberal stance on personal data.

Zuckerberg would like to eschew public humiliation and avoid being a sitting duck.

The episode in Washington highlights the need for Facebook to decouple itself from ad revenue, which makes up the lion's share of revenue at the firm and find other levers to pull.

Down the road, Facebook's ad business could get crimped by regulators, and a lack of fallback options haunts Facebook investors in their sleep.

Consequently, a whole slew of high-level management rotation is underway at Facebook.

It is the biggest shake-up in the history of Facebook.

The road map starts with one of Zuckerberg's best friends and protege Chris Cox who will manage the new "family of apps" segment.

This collection of projects he will preside over include WhatsApp, Messenger, Instagram, and the Facebook Core App.

The step up in responsibility is warranted for Chris Cox who was credited with creating the Facebook news feed after joining the company in 2005 after ditching his Stanford graduate degree program at the time.

The executive reshuffle coincided with WhatsApp co-founder Jan Koum, one of Silicon Valley's biggest advocates for data privacy, who quit his post as a show of disapproval to Facebook's business model.

Mark Zuckerberg wants to aggressively monetize the WhatsApp messenger service that was acquired for $19 billion in 2014.

Zuckerberg's blueprint involves using the WhatsApp phone numbers as a vehicle to monetize through offering different products.

Facebook would then collect the data from its 1 billion usership and WhatsApp would become Facebook's new advertisement clearing house.

WhatsApp's leadership vehemently refused this U-turn and Koum decided he would rather leave then see his baby ruined.

Facebook consistently refrained in the past from passing WhatsApp to the data mining scientists and was able to prevent full-scale implementations of advertisements onto its platform.

Currently, there are no ads on WhatsApp's interface, and users could be in store for a massive transformation in look and feel.

Facebook investors have been clamoring for Zuckerberg to start the process of making WhatsApp into a material revenue stream.

Time is of the essence as the big data police creep in from the shadows.

Putting Zuckerberg's top guy on the job embarks Facebook down a new path of hyper accelerated profit-making.

Well, that is the goal.

Compounding Facebook's pivot to other businesses is commissioning a new blockchain tech team.

Blockchain technology, the technology that helped unearth bitcoin, has seen a recent slew of endorsements from financial heavy hitters such as Goldman Sachs (GS), which acknowledged the formation of a new business brokering in bitcoin futures.

A year ago, no reputable organization would touch blockchain with a 10-foot pole.

The utilization of blockchain technology would allow trackability and provide more security.

That would help Facebook to understand the provenance of unique problems allowing staff to nip problems in the bud before they snowball.

Blockchain tech fits nicely within the constraints of the model and would enhance the existing Facebook product.

Let's not forget that Facebook has a mountain of cash to fix any problem that crops up.

It is not one of these early stage seed companies burning through heaps of cash waiting for "scalability" down the road.

Facebook is here and now, and it has the money to show for it.

The pillars of blockchain revolve around cryptography. Blockchain would effectively allow individuals to possess more power over their identity decentralizing the stranglehold from Menlo Park.

Thus, Facebook must invest deeply into blockchain to counter the fear that this technology can marginalize the core business.

This epitomizes the tendency for large-cap tech to become preemptive.

None of the powerful FANGs want to miss the next big shift in technology, and the cash hoard allows them to have skin in the game in each revolutionary trend.

The tide has changed at Facebook from the early years where growing the user base was paramount.

Now that user base has matured into a 2.2 billion marketplace.

Facebook's strategy has shifted to extracting more revenue per user and management closely follows this metric.

Mike Schroepfer, the CTO of Facebook, was tabbed as the man leading the charge for Artificial Intelligence (A.I.), Augmented Reality (A.R.), and Virtual Reality (V.R.) technology.

Facebook was able to poach Jerome Pesenti from IBM (IBM), where he was a critical cog in the development of IBM's Watson, to run the Facebook A.I. team. A.I. is routinely implemented into Facebook's core products to enhance performance.

Promoting Chris Cox as the next in line and giving him control over all the powerful products effectively pushes ad tech down the pecking order.

Javier Olivan is the new man at Facebook tasked for managing ads, analytics, and integrity, growth and product management.

Moving forward, the ad division will be laced with a certain level of security to avoid a repeat of Cambridge Analytica.

Zuckerberg must know that there are other Cambridge Analytica's hidden somewhere in the system; another incident would knock down the stock 5% to 10%.

Facebook could look vastly different in a few years if some of these profit drivers prove successful. It only needs one to work.

Disrupt or be disrupted.

At this point, the big tech companies are considering anywhere or anyone to capture accelerated growth. The FANGs are spilling over to other companies' turf.

Crossover is everywhere and this is just the beginning.

Expect Amazon's (AMZN) ad division to grow from the already $2 billion per quarter, gradually challenging the duopoly of Facebook and Alphabet in the digital ad revenue industry.

It is yet to be seen if the new revamp of management will produce better results.

This move could backfire as the management carousel excluded any fresh blood from taking part.

Effectively, Zuckerberg rotated his best friends into different parts of the business without demoting anyone.

Solidifying his close-knit circle of trust is no doubt a defensive reaction to being hounded the past few months, leaving his existing circle as the few people on which he can still count.

Facebook's stock remains healthy and the brouhaha stoked by the data leak gave investors a timely entry point.

I pounded on the table calling the bluff, begging readers to get into Facebook.

The long-term Facebook story is intact but the stock is overbought short-term.

Investors should not sleep on Facebook as it is a profit machine printing money like Apple (AAPL) and the executive revamp is a bullish development for Facebook.

My bet is that Chris Cox goes for the low hanging fruit monetizing WhatsApp, inciting the next leg up in Facebook shares later in the year.

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"Simply put: We don't build services to make money; we make money to build better services." - said Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Zuckerberg-on-the-Hill-image-2-e1526417830446.jpg 343 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-05-16 01:05:032018-05-16 01:05:03What's Up at Facebook?
MHFTR

April 3, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 3, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TUESDAY, JUNE 12, NEW ORLEANS, LA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(MARCH 28 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (TBT), (FXY), (GS), (FCX), (CSCO), (INTC), (NEM),
(RIGHTSIZING YOUR TRADING)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-03 01:09:312018-04-03 01:09:31April 3, 2018
MHFTR

March 27, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
March 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DON'T MISS THE MARCH 28 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(TEN MORE UGLY MESSAGES FROM THE BOND MARKET),
(TLT), (TBT), (USO), (GLD), (GS), (SPY)
(FRIENDS WHO WILL EXECUTE MY TRADE ALERTS FOR YOU)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-27 01:09:572018-03-27 01:09:57March 27, 2018
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Chat With Berkshire Hathaway?s Warren Buffett

Diary, Newsletter

Sometime in the early 1970?s, a friend of mine said I should take a look at a stock named Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) run by a young stud named Warren Buffett.

I thought, ?Why the hell should I invest in a company that makes sheets??

After all, the American textile industry was in the middle of a long trek toward extinction that began in the 1920?s, and was only briefly interrupted by the hyper prosperity of WWII. The industry?s travails were simply an outcome of ever rising US standards of living, which pushed wages, and therefore costs, up.

It turns out that Warren Buffett made a lot more than sheets. However, he is not a young stud anymore, just an old one, like me.

Since then, Warren?s annual letter to investors has been an absolute ?must read? for me when it is published every spring.

It has been edited for the past half century by my friend, Carol Loomis, who just retired after a 60-year career with Fortune magazine. (I never wrote for them because their freelance rates were lousy).

Witty, insightful, and downright funny, I view it as a cross between a Harvard Business School seminar and a Berkeley anti establishment demonstration. You will find me lifting from it my ?Quotes of the Day? for the daily newsletter over the next several issues. There are some real zingers.

And what a year it has been!

Berkshire?s gain in net worth was $18.3 billion, which increased the share value by 8.3%, and today, the market capitalization stands at an impressive $343.4 billion. (Sorry Warren, but I clocked 30% last year, eat your heart out).

The shares are not for small timers, as one now costs $214,801, and no, they don?t sell half shares. This compares to a 1965 per share market value of $23.80, and is why the media are always going gaga over Warren Buffett.

If you?re lazy and don?t want to do the math, that works out to a compound annualized return of an eye popping 21.6%. This is why guessing what Warren is going to do next has become a major cottage industry (Progressive Insurance anyone?).

Warren brought in these numbers despite the fact that its largest non-insurance subsidiary, the old Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad (BNSF) suffered an awful year.

Extensive upgrades under construction and terrible winter weather disrupted service, causing the railroad to lose market share to rival Union Pacific (UNP).

I was kind of pissed when Warren bought BNSF in 2009 for a blockbuster $44 billion, as it was long my favorite trading vehicles for the sector. Since then, its book value has doubled. Typical Warren.

Buffett plans to fix the railroad?s current problems with $6 billion in new capital investment this year, one of the largest single capital investments in American history. Warren isn?t doing anything small these days.

Buffett also got a hickey from his investment in UK supermarket chain Tesco, which ran up a $444 million loss for Berkshire in 2014. Warren admits he was too slow in getting out of the shares, a rare move for the Oracle of Omaha, who rarely sells anything (which avoids capital gains taxes).

Warren increased his investment in all of his ?Big Four? holdings, American Express (AXP), Coca-Cola (KO), IBM (IBM), and Wells Fargo (WFC).

In addition, Berkshire owns options on Bank of America (BAC) stock, which have a current exercise value of $12.5 billion (purchased the day after the Mad Hedge Fund Trader issued a Trade Alert on said stock for an instant 300% gain on the options).

The secret to understanding Buffett picks over the years is that cash flow is king.

This means that he has never participated in the many technology booms over the decades, or fads of any other description, for that matter.

He says this is because he will never buy a business he doesn?t intrinsically understand, and they didn?t offer computer programming as an elective in high school during the Great Depression.

No doubt this has lowered his potential returns, but with the benefit of much lower volatility.

That makes his position in (IBM) a bit of a mystery, the worst performing Dow stock of the past two years. I would much rather own Apple (AAPL) myself, which also boasts great cash flow, and even a dividend these days (with a 1.50% yield).

Warren will be the first to admit that even he makes mistakes, sometimes, disastrous ones. He cites his worst one ever as a perfect example, his purchase of Dexter Shoes for $433 million in 1993. This was right before China entered the shoe business as a major competitor.

Not only did the company quickly go under, he exponentially compounded the error through buying the firm with an exchange of Berkshire Hathaway stock, which is now worth a staggering $5.7 billion.

Ouch, and ouch again!

Warren has also been mostly missing in action on the international front, believing that the mother load of investment opportunities runs through the US, and that its best days lie ahead. I believe the same.

Still, he has dipped his toe in foreign waters from time to time, and I was sometimes quick to jump on his coattails. A favorite of mine was his purchase of 10% of Chinese electric car factory BYD (BYDDF) in 2009, where I have captured a few doubles over the years.

Buffett expounds at great length the attractions of the insurance industry, which today remains the core of his business. For payment of a premium up front, the buyers of insurance policies receive a mere promise to perform in the future, sometimes as much as a half century off.

In the meantime, Warren can invest the money any way he wants. The model has been a real printing press for Buffett since he took over his first insurer in 1951, GEICO.

Much of the letter promotes the upcoming shareholders annual meeting, known as the ?Woodstock of Capitalism?.

There, the conglomerate?s many products will be for sale, including, Justin Boots (I have a pair), the gecko from GEICO (which insures my Tesla S-1), and See?s Candies (a Christmas addiction, love the peanut brittle!).

There, visitors can try their hand at Ping-Pong against Ariel Hsing, a 2012 American Olympic Team member, after Bill Gates and Buffett wear her down first.

They can try their hand against a national bridge champion (don?t play for money). And then there is the newspaper-throwing contest (Buffett?s first gainful employment).

Some 40,000 descend on remote Omaha for the firm?s annual event. All flights to the city are booked well in advance, with fares up to triple normal rates.

Hotels sell out too, and many now charge three-day minimums (after Warren, what is there to do in Omaha for two more days other than to visit PayPal?s technical support?). Buffett recommends Airbnb as a low budget option (for the single shareholders?).

I was amazed to learn that Berkshire files a wrist breaking 24,100-page Federal tax return (and I thought mine was bad!). Add to this a mind numbing 3,400 separate state tax returns.

Overall, Berkshire holdings account for more than 3% of the total US gross domestic product, but a far lesser share of the government?s total tax revenues, thanks to careful planning.

Buffett ends his letter by advertising for new acquisitions and listing his criteria. They include:

(1) ?Large purchases (at least $75 million of pre-tax earnings unless the business will fit into one of our existing units),

(2) ?Demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of no interest to us, nor are ?turnaround? situations),

(3) ?Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,

(4) Managemen
t in place (we can?t supply it),

(5) Simple businesses (if there?s lots of technology, we won?t understand it),

(6) An offering price (we don?t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).

Let me know if you have any offers.

To read the entire history of Warren Buffett?s prescient letters, please click here: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.htm.BRKA

BYDDF

IBM

 

Warren Buffett

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Warren-Buffett-e1429740484967.jpg 249 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-04-19 01:06:052016-04-19 01:06:05A Chat With Berkshire Hathaway?s Warren Buffett
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