For all the China lovers out there who think buying Chinese tech after the dip is a good idea – I have bad news for you – it’s just a dead cat bounce.
Don’t be fooled into thinking just because Chinese tech stocks became cheap, it’s a good entry point into corporate China.
It’s not.
The truth is that this isn’t your father’s China.
The situation has dramatically changed in the last 10 days so much so that I will say with conviction to stay away from Chinese technology stocks perhaps forever, almost, like it’s the black plague.
The place is totally done after China’s Chairman Xi Jing Ping was “re-elected” for his 3rd successive five-year term as the authoritarian leader of the East Asian nation.
Investors have also listened to my advice as Chinese tech shares have been thrown out with the bath water from Hong Kong to mainland China.
Many investors want no more part of China Inc. which is ironic since this was the place they couldn’t get enough of just a few years ago.
Why have investors been so jittery anyway?
Essentially, Chairman Xi packed the Politburo standing committee, the core circle of power in the ruling Communist Party of China, with his friends, poker buddies, and allies.
It was only just recently when China was tightening the tech environment before with examples littered around the country such as putting the shackles on the founder of ecommerce firm Alibaba (BABA) Jack Ma.
The Chinese communist party blocked his IPO of Alibaba’s finance arm Ant Group resulting in mass shareholder losses.
The backdrop has only soured significantly since then.
Under Xi’s leadership, China has implemented a raft of policies that have tightened regulation on the tech sector in areas from data protection to governing the way in which algorithms can be used.
JD.com (JD), Alibaba, and Tencent laid off thousands of employees in April due to tightened regulations and a slowing economy.
What are the rest of the unintended consequences?
A stronger dollar and weaker Chinese yuan just for starters.
It’s no secret that China hoovers up as many dollars as it can find, but in the meantime, the Chinese yuan is under relentless pressure from its underperforming economy, poor government policies, and gargantuan federal debt load.
Tech innovation will drop off a cliff.
Before, Chinese tech innovation meant stealing ideas and IP from Americans, but it will be harder now that this is a bipartisan issue in the US Congress.
China will also slow down the rollout of new tech products simply because they can’t acquire the advanced chips they need to build their products.
Just look at Huawei that was once counted as one of the most popular smartphones in Europe. Nobody buys their phones anymore because Google-based apps are banned on Huawei phones.
Most chilling of all, Chinese tech workers won’t be incentivized to take any risk in an environment that will penalize them by who knows what at this point.
That means many of these firms will be playing it safe yet be pushed by boss, CEO, and the communist party to beat America in the tech race for global hegemony.
In short, America has won and China faces a stark future of mediocrity in the tech space. They churn out a high volume of tech employees but industry can only develop so far by copying. It’s impossible to out-copy oneself or others into the lead.
It’s getting so bad in China that even investor Ray Dalio has stopped cheerleading for the Mandarins.
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Heading into a fresh Presidential term, the tech war against China must be addressed or the U.S. faces the prospect of falling behind China by the next U.S. Presidential election.
By that time, the U.S. might not be able to recover.
China’s political leaders have endorsed a five-year growth plan focused on reducing the economy’s reliance on foreign investment and technology.
And this squarely means the U.S.
Following a Communist Party’s Central Committee Meeting, the Chinese have hatched a grand “vision” for the economy as far off as 2035.
“It is the first time ever in the history of our party’s five-year plans…that China is placing the plans on science, technology, and innovation before all other sectors,” Said Wang Zhigang, China’s minister of science and technology.
This specifically means that China is done being “factory of the world” and is gunning for Silicon Valley’s milk and honey.
Chinese tech giants such as Huawei Technologies, the nation’s largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., China’s largest semiconductor maker are two central figures that will execute the plans for Chinese Communist’s pivot to technology.
But according to a Financial Times report, Huawei has run out of supply of chips and is looking into manufacturing their own without any experience doing so.
This situation is brutal for the Chinese simply because they don’t have the wherewithal to achieve this great task.
Total self-reliance may remain elusive because China’s communist apparatus is not conducive to producing top-class engineers.
Remember that much of their technology is “borrowed” and they will have to drive forward that same strategy if they want to surpass the U.S. in technological prowess.
I just don’t believe China can organically outgun the U.S. in technology, they simply aren’t built to deliver that result.
Chips aren’t as easy to make as a pair of running shoes or a plastic rubber ducky - these are tough technologies to master.
Part of the blame must be shared with the pitiful Chinese education system that is a pay-to-play type of structure.
The coronavirus has translated into foreign government being extra careful in the technologies they harness and now allowing China to raid these precious secrets.
China is now officially classified as a strategic adversary and it will be a tough slog for China moving forward because the low-hanging fruit has already been harvested.
There also exists the possibility that Democratic Presidential hopeful Joe Biden will be even more staunch against the economic and technological onslaughts of the Chinese Communist Party.
The green shoots have already started to show up as legislation for tech investment takes root.
This summer, a bipartisan group of legislators led by the Democratic senator Chuck Schumer and the Republican Todd Young introduced the Endless Frontier Act. It calls for investing $100 billion over five years to expand the NSF and to fund research in key fields, such as AI, quantum computing, biotech, advanced energy, and materials science.
Biden has proposed spending even more—$300 billion over four years—on federal investments in R&D. His plan calls for major increases in technologies such as AI, 5G, and advanced materials.
The Trump administration has increased investment in five key “industries of the future”—AI, quantum computing, 5G, advanced manufacturing, and biotechnology—albeit not on the scale Biden is calling for.
Made in China 2025 was launched in 2015, and in that year alone, the Chinese government created about $220 billion of state-backed investment funds to support it.
The U.S. would likely dip into their debt instruments to release unlimited capital to deal with developing emerging technologies.
I wholeheartedly believe that China’s encroachment will inspire a technological revolution in the U.S. that is first fueled by government institutions and the peripheries supported by the venture capitalists.
On a microeconomic level, the U.S. has far too large of an edge in semi chip engineers than the Chinese, although China has closed the gap.
The attractiveness of the U.S. from the fiscal side is evident as Chinese tech companies still dream of going public in New York and not Hong Kong or Shenzhen.
Much of the hype around Chinese technology is still hype and that’s all.
Just take for instance the newest Huawei premium smartphone that was billed to be better than the iPhone.
The truth is that it’s a poorly operating smartphone and performs as a mid-level phone.
The Chinese Communist Party has been great at controlling the media narrative around their economical and technological rise, but I am here to call it out to the point where I believe they are still a “paper tiger.”
Many people “in the know” tell me that China’s economy hasn’t been growing for the past 7 years and their “superior” technology is repurposed technology borrowed from western countries that is already outdated in the West.
Just because media suppression is insane in Beijing and any negative journalistic take will be squashed in seconds, it doesn’t mean they have the best technology in the world.
I heard that Chinese tech is “ahead” in 5G, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving but I have seen nothing that would verify this claim.
Peel back the layers and I do believe the Chinese tech scene is closer to a Potemkin’s Village than Moscow’s Red Square.
In the next four years, the U.S. will visibly surge in front of China as the real tech dominator.
This means that investors should be long technology stocks after this short-term consolidation.
DOES THIS VIRTUAL REALITY SET REALLY WORK?
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-02 12:02:332020-11-03 18:52:28Is China Catching Up?
The Davos World Economic Forum is the optimal place to get a snapshot of the state of the American technology sector and apply its underpinnings to an overall trading strategy for 2020.
Stepping back, one clear theme is the lasting effects of the trade war and how that will manifest itself in the broader tech sector.
We got some serious sound bites from CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella at Davos who is convinced that mutual economic saber-rattling between the US and China will show up in higher costs because of the misallocation of resources.
The most critical point of contention is the development in the semiconductor space as we move into the 5G world and this $470 billion industry which realizes cost savings from scaling by global supply is splintering off as we speak into two separate industries.
This just translates into higher costs to source components for your Microsoft Surface laptop or your Apple Ear Buds.
The follow-through effect is ultimately bludgeoning global growth rates and tech intermediaries will be forced to pick up the extra tab or face the looming decision to pass costs on to the consumer.
As we move forward, the administration is considering more limits to US semiconductor companies’ access to the Chinese consumer market.
The scaremongering fueled by the rise and threat of Huawei has reached fever pitch.
Remember that even with the aggression of the American administration hoping to cap Huawei’s revenue explosion, Huawei still managed to grow sales 18% last year to $122 billion.
I can tell you that if the U.S. administration came after the Mad Hedge Technology Letter guns blazing, we wouldn’t be sitting here growing 18% annually!
The U.S. administration hasn’t stopped at Huawei and is putting in shifts attempting to convince other nations to avoid using Chinese infrastructure equipment for the 5G revolution.
The “Phase One” of the trade agreement is largely seen as a moot point in the technology community and in some cases can be argued as a net negative to component makers whose access to the local Chinese market has narrowed.
The agreement signed also delivered no meaningful protection to intellectual property for US technology companies working with China which was largely viewed as the main catalyst provoking a geopolitical fight.
The trade war has sped up the bifurcation of internets, better known as “splinternet,” and I believe that sometime in the near future, you will need to download Chinese software and platforms to function inside of China.
Much of these misunderstandings stem from the lack of trust that has accumulated between the two parties.
The American tech sector and Wall Street have indirectly subsidized China’s technological rise to this point and now they must go head-to-head in every future technology such as artificial intelligence, 5G, fintech, augmented reality, and virtual reality.
This appears to be the new normal - a frosty and adversarial tech relationship.
There is now zero good will between each other.
The trust of tech on American shores could almost be ironically argued that it is worse than the trust level with China.
Edelman’s 20th annual trust barometer surveyed more than 34,000 adult respondents in 38 markets around the world.
It found that 61% of participants said the pace of change in technology is too fast and government does not fully understand emerging technologies enough to regulate them efficiently.
Trust in tech from 2019 to 2020 declined the most significantly in France, Canada, Italy, Russia, Singapore, the U.S. and Australia.
Much of the narrative has been about the domination of American tech by a handful of actors that has seen American companies go up against foreign governments.
France and America recently announced a temporary truce after the French President Emmanuel Macron reached out by phone to President Trump hoping to end the threat of tariffs while they work out a broader accord on digital taxation.
The French leader agreed to postpone until the end of 2020 a tax that France levied on big tech companies last year and in turn, the U.S. will delay the counter-tariffs that were in the works set to be levied on the French.
And it’s not just the French.
India has taken heed from the brooding trouble between the encroachment on sovereignty and American tech giants by adopting an aggressive stance towards Amazon.
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos' lowlight of a recent India work trip came in the form of being snubbed by the Indian government.
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal said, “It’s not as if they (Amazon) are doing a great favor to India when they invest a billion dollars.”
He called Amazon a capital guzzler equating its mounting losses up to “predatory pricing or some unfair trade practices.”
India is on the verge of turning protectionist on foreign tech and this flies in the face of the tech atmosphere even just a few years ago.
Governments have come to realize that America’s FANGs are too dominant and entrenched often resulting in a net negative to the local populace.
More often than not, American tech found ways of rerouting local revenue to coffers of a few billionaires while paying zero local tax.
The easy money has been made and now the Tim Cooks and Sundar Pichais of the world will have to fight tooth and nail with not only the U.S. antitrust regulators, but foreign governments.
This is why a handful of tech companies this dominant has been the outsized winners over the past generation as their share prices have gone from the lower left to the upper right but now command minimal consumer trust.
The ultimate Davos message is that big tech continues to grind higher, but alarm bells have started to ring.
There’s only so much friction they can handle before investors pull the rug.
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The overwhelming victors of the G20 were the semiconductor companies who have been lumped into the middle of the U.S. and China trade war.
Nothing substantial was agreed at the Osaka event except a small wrinkle allowing American companies to sell certain chips to Huawei on a limited basis for the time being.
As expected, these few words set off an avalanche of risk on sentiment in the broader market along with allowing chip companies to get rid of built-up inventory as the red sea parted.
Tech companies that apply chip stocks to products involved with value added China sales were also rewarded handsomely.
Apple (AAPL) rose almost 4% on this news and many investors believe the market cannot sustain this rally unless Apple isn’t taken along for the ride.
Stepping back and looking at the bigger picture is needed to digest this one-off event.
On one hand, Huawei sales comprise a massive portion of sales, even up to 50% in Nvidia’s case, but on the other hand, it is the heart and soul of China Inc. hellbent on developing One Belt One Road (OBOR) which is its political and economic vehicle to dominate foreign technology using Huawei, infrastructure markets, and foreign sales of its manufactured products.
Ironically enough, Huawei was created because of exactly that – national security.
China anointed it part of the national security apparatus critical to the health and economy of the Chinese communist party and showered it with generous loans starting from the 1980s.
China still needs about 10 years to figure out how to make better chips than the Americans and if this happens, American chip sales will dry up like a puddle in the Saharan desert.
Considering the background of this complicated issue, American chip companies risk being nationalized because they are following the Chinese communist route of applying the national security tag on this vital sector.
Huawei is effectively dumping products on other markets because private companies cannot compete on any price points against entire states.
This was how Huawei scored their first major tech infrastructure contract in Sweden in 2009 even though Sweden has Ericsson in their backyard.
We were all naïve then, to say the least.
Huawei can afford to take the long view with an Amazon-like market share grab strategy because of possessing the largest population in the world, the biggest market, and backed by the state.
Even more tactically critical is this new development crushes the effectiveness of passive investing.
Before the trade war commenced, the low-hanging fruit were the FANGs.
Buying Google, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Facebook were great trades until they weren’t.
Things are different now.
Riding on the coattails of an economic recovery from the 2008 housing crisis, this group of companies could do no wrong with our own economy flooded with cheap money from the Fed.
Well, not anymore.
We are entering into a phase where active investors have tremendous opportunities to exploit market inefficiencies.
Get this correct and the world is your oyster.
Get this wrong, like celebrity investors such as John Paulson, who called the 2008 housing crisis, then your hedge fund will convert to a family office and squeeze out the extra profit through safe fixed income bets.
This is another way to say being put out to pasture in the financial world.
My point being, big cap tech isn’t going up in a straight line anymore.
Investors will need to be more tactically cautious shifting between names that are bullish in the period of time they can be bullish while escaping dreadful selloffs that are pertinent in this stage of the late cycle.
In short, as the trade winds blow each way, strategies must pivot on a dime.
Geopolitical events prompted market participants to buy semis on the dips until something materially changes.
This is the trade today but might be gone with one Tweet.
If you want to reduce your beta, then buy the semiconductor chip iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX).
I will double down in saying that no American chip company will ever commit one more incremental cent of capital in mainland China.
That ship has sailed, and the transition will whipsaw markets because of the uncertainty in earnings.
The rerouting of capital expenditure to lesser-known Asian countries will deliver control of business models back to the corporation’s management and that is how free market capitalism likes it.
Furthermore, the lifting of the ban does not include all components, and this could be a maneuver to deliver more face-saving window-dressing for Chairman Xi.
In reality, there is still an effective ban because technically all chip components could be regarded as connected to the national security interests of the U.S.
Bullish traders are chomping at the bit to see how these narrow exemptions on non-sensitive technologies will lead to a greater rapprochement that could include the removal of all new tariffs imposed since last summer.
The risk that more tariffs are levied is also high as well.
I put the odds of removing tariffs at 30% and I wouldn’t be surprised if the administration doubles down on China to claim a foreign policy victory leading up to the 2020 election which could be the catalyst to more tariffs.
It’s difficult to decode if U.S. President Trump’s statements carry any real weight in real time.
The bottom line is the American government now controls the mechanism to when, how, and the volume of chip sales to Huawei and that is a dangerous game for investors to play if you plan on owning chip stocks that sell to Huawei.
Artificial intelligence or 5G applications chips are the most waterlogged and aren’t and will never be on the table for export.
This means that a variety of companies pulled into the dragnet zone are Intel (INTC), Nvidia (NVDA), and Analog Devices (ADI) as companies that will be deemed vital to national security.
These companies all performed admirably in the market following the news, but that could be short lived.
Other major logjams include Broadcom’s future revenue which is in jeopardy because of a heavy reliance on Huawei as a dominant customer for its networking and storage products.
Rounding out the chip sector, other names with short-term bullish price action are Qualcomm (QCOM) up 2.3%, Texas Instruments (TXN) up 2.6%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 3.9%.
(AMD) is a stock I told attendees at the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe conference to buy at $18 and is now above $31.
Xilinix (XLNX) is another integral 5G company in the mix that has their fortunes tied to this Huawei mess.
Investors must take advantage of this short-term détente with a risk on, buy the dip trade in the semi space and be ready to rip the cord on the first scent of blood.
That is the market we have right now.
If you can’t handle this environment when there is blood in the streets, then stay on the sidelines until there is another market sweet spot.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/chip-stocks.png564972Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-07-03 03:02:302019-08-05 17:49:59Chips are Back from the Dead
Apple’s Chief Design Officer Jony Ive, the British industrial designer who made Apple (AAPL) products beautiful, is on his way out.
What else could the man do?
Jonathan Paul Ive was born in Chingford, London in 2967 to a silversmith who lectured at Middlesex Polytechnic.
He pursed automotive design at Newcastle Polytechnic, now named University of Northumbria at Newcastle, and graduated with a BA in industrial design in 1989.
His student successes harvested him the RSA Student Design Award which gifted him a stipend for an exploratory trip to the United States.
Palo Alto, California was his ultimate destination where he befriended various design experts including Robert Brunner—a designer who ran a small consultancy firm that would later join Apple Computers.
Ive signed onto product design agency Roberts Weaver Group following his studies demonstrating his typical attention to detail that he became renowned for.
London startup design agency called Tangerine came calling and Ive used his talents to design microwave ovens, toilets, drills and toothbrushes.
Ive slammed into confict with management at Tangerine who believed his ideas were too modern and exorbitant.
Apple later decided to partner with Tangerine on the basis of some of Ive’s former Silicon Valley friends like Robert Brunner delivering Ive to the forefront of Apple design products where he started hatching his plan to be the ultimate designer at Apple.
The rest is history as Ive went on to produce memorable consumer product designs such as the iMac, iPod, iPhone, and iPad.
His last burst of creativity was applied to produce the Apple Watch which was an overwhelming success.
He will now take his show independent but still collaborate with Apple as his main client.
The new design firm will be called LoveFrom.
This announcement isn’t a shocker and certainly, he really had one foot out of the door ever since the passing of Former Co-Founder Steve Jobs in 2011 put him on less solid footing.
If you remember, Apple had a secret corridor constructed between Jobs' and Ive’s office epitomizing how closely they collaborated on product development as well as how good of friends they were.
Current CEO of Apple Tim Cook is the exact opposite of what Steve Jobs represented and part of the reason why Apple has lacked that game-changing new product resulting in a reduced share price.
Steve Jobs was a visionary and the person to transform his ideas into physical form was Jony Ive.
You could argue that part of Jony Ive succumbed with Steve Jobs as well as his parabolic career trajectory.
That’s what all those lines of people camping overnight in front of Apple stores was about.
The cult of Apple was at its peak around 2012 where Apple sold the most iPhones and was miles ahead of competition.
Fast forward 7 years and Tim Cook has allowed the relative competition to catch up and even overtake Apple in numerous metrics.
I would argue that Tim Cook was a dependent stop gap to Steve Jobs but the lack of vision in a position where visionaries are rewarded has been Apple’s Achilles heel.
Surely, Apple could have hired an Elon Musk after Tim Cook steadied the rutter.
The results have been monetary success, milking the famed iPhone business for what it’s worth plus more, but missing the boat on premium content.
They could have bought Netflix (NFLX) while it was less potent with the glut of cash in reserve, or they could have penetrated the enterprise business with acquiring Salesforce (CRM) at an earlier stage.
And during this period, Chinese phone makers caught up big time with Huawei now offering a better and cheaper iPhone alternative.
What Jony Ive was leaving the headquarters of Apple represents is the death of hardware.
Out with the old and in the new, and the new is software and the direction Apple is doubling down on.
Apple's services of iTunes, the App Store, the Mac App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay, and AppleCare, has become Apple’s “new” business.
Apple's services segment did sales of $11.5 billion in revenue, up from the $9.9 billion services earned in the second quarter of 2018.
A new all-time record was set for services revenue this quarter.
Apple Pay is available in 30 markets and expect to go live in 40 markets by the end of 2019.
Apple now boasts 390 million paid subscriptions across all of its services, an increase of 30 million sequentially and by 2020, Apple will pass half a million paid subscriptions.
Apple hopes to penetrate further into the magazine business with Apple News+, a $9.99 per month service that offers unlimited access to more than 200 magazines.
Apple plans to surpass $14 billion in services revenue per quarter by 2020.
This is what Apple is doing now and the sad fact is that Ive and his special skills do not fit seamlessly into the main growth drivers of the company anymore.
Software engineers are being cherrypicked left, right, and center as Apple avoids making any big capital investments aside from leasing new buildings to install an army of fresh programmers.
Apple reported $11.45 billion in services revenue topped analysts’ expectations of $11.37 billion.
Apple also reported services margins of 63.8% for the quarter.
Services now accounts for about 20% of Apple’s revenue, up from 16% a year earlier and 13% in the first quarter.
I will give Tim Cook credit for recovering from the 20% drop in Apple’s shares, better late than never.
Now Apple is in the process of shifting up to 30% of their supply chain from China to South East Asia to de-risk from the Middle Kingdom.
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