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Tag Archive for: (MSFT)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 20, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 20, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(INNOVATION GENIUS OR INVESTORS’ QUAGMIRE?)
(TDOC), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-20 14:02:282023-07-20 15:42:32July 20, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Innovation Genius or Investors' Quagmire?

Biotech Letter

Let's rewind to the inception of Teladoc (TDOC).

In the early 2000s, online medical appointments were as futuristic as a scene out of The Jetsons. Fast forward to today, and Teladoc's business model - a digital clinic where you see the doctor from your laptop - is as commonplace as ordering a latte from your phone.

In theory, it's a genius innovation - cut down the rigmarole of office visits, boost doctor efficiency, and slash overhead costs associated with physical appointments.

Unfortunately, the real world has been a tough nut to crack for Teladoc, with investors getting cold feet over the past few years.

Still, when the risk-averse tide returned in 2023 and investors started making a beeline for stocks that had taken a beating in 2022, Teladoc shareholders were also banking on a swift recovery from the lows.

Indeed, with a market shift towards greener pastures, the stock got a nearly 60% leg-up from its historical lows by early February. It looked like buyers were of the view that, despite some managerial slip-ups, the leader of the telehealth market seemed underpriced given its double-digit growth rates. The expectations also seemed tempered.

Then came another slap of reality with the quarterly reports.

Despite respectable Q4 figures, the outlook was nothing short of a letdown. After a 2022 slump in the telehealth market and Teladoc's 18% growth, one might have hoped for a more robust expansion within a burgeoning industry.

Instead, investors got a projection of lukewarm average increase of just 8.4%, GAAP profitability seemed like a distant dream, and even an EBITDA growth of 22% couldn't make the numbers shine.

The backlash was predictable. After Q1 numbers, the stock rallied before it stumbled again, nearing its all-time lows - even amidst a risk-on climate.

Diminishing growth, elusive profitability, mounting competition – Is this Teladoc's swan song, or can it claw back its glory?

Recent updates show that it seems like Teladoc is leaning on Microsoft (MSFT) for a lifeline.

The company declared an expanded alliance with Microsoft, aiming to harness the latter's state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) technology. This uplifting news is a much-needed antidote for the digital health provider, whose recent journey had more in common with a bear market trudge than a bull run sprint.

The idea is for the telehealth company to basically plug in the Azure OpenAI Service, along with other Microsoft products, directly into its homegrown Teladoc Solo virtual care platform.

The endgame? Cut the red tape for overworked healthcare professionals by automating the grind of clinical documentation – applicable to virtual check-ups and in-person consultations.

That's not all. Teladoc is additionally introducing the "Nuance Dragon Ambient eXperience," or DAX, a sophisticated tool that effortlessly transforms patient-practitioner dialogues into comprehensive, specialty-specific clinical notes, all while sticking to the letter of documentation standards.

As expected, the stock enjoyed an initial sugar rush as investors toasted to the company's pivot towards AI.

For me, though, I have a more measured take on the announcement. While I recognize the positive thrust of the move, I can’t completely agree that this alliance is a game-changer. Let me share some of the reasons behind my reluctance.

In the first part of 2023, Teladoc reported a top-line revenue of $629 million, while carrying a net loss of $69 million. On the surface, the balance between the top and bottom lines seems skewed.

However, taking a step back, Teladoc took a considerable hit last year with a sizeable goodwill impairment charge. But spring 2023 brings a new twist, with an $8.1 million expense for restructuring.

Based on the 10-Q filing, these costs were tied to "kissing goodbye to excess leased office spaces." We might assume this is a one-off, and quite frankly, it's a move I admire for a company currently in the red.

But let’s flip the script a bit and talk about operating expenses.

While the company managed to cut back on Sales and Technology and Development, they seemed to have thrown caution to the wind, with General and Administrative costs up by 9% and Advertising and Marketing expenses skyrocketing by 32%.

I’m not talking about an occasional splurge here. The 2022 report shows a 50% annual increase in Advertising and Marketing costs. This figure is critical, as it gives us a peek into the company's customer acquisition costs. More money spent on marketing translates to longer customer retention needed to turn a profit.

To provide you with a sense, for every dollar Teladoc made in Q1 2023, 28 cents went to marketing, a noticeable bump from 24 cents per dollar in Q1 2022.

Now, Teladoc hints at some seasonality in their operations, with the first and last quarters typically reflecting weaker operating income as the pace of new customer acquisitions and revenue growth lags behind marketing expenses. But let's not let this divert our attention from the discrepancy between revenue growth and marketing costs.

As an investor, you'd obviously want to know how well the company is retaining its customers with these rising acquisition costs.

Here's the deal: Teladoc's customer churn rate isn't increasing, but it's not dropping either. As for the customer retention rates, the company’s executives describe the figures as "stable."

Notably, the company already casts a wide net, claiming that "over 80 million individuals in the U.S. have access to one or more of our products and services." If that's true, Teladoc already has its hooks in nearly a quarter of the U.S. population.

So, the million-dollar question for investors: If Teladoc can't turn a profit with this massive reach, then when will it?

In the digital healthcare universe, Teladoc once promised to be a shooting star. Yet, amidst stalled growth, daunting losses, and controversial investments, it appears more like a black hole absorbing investor optimism.

The recent alliance with Microsoft injects a ray of hope, aiming to automate and optimize operations through AI. But the questions remain: Is this the life-saving maneuver that rights Teladoc's trajectory, or just a brief flash in the pan?

As investors, we're left to wonder, in the dance of innovation and investment, will Teladoc waltz or wobble? Only time will play the music.

 

teladoc investors

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-20 14:00:252023-07-31 23:09:50Innovation Genius or Investors' Quagmire?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 19, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 19, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CODERS ARE NEXT TO GO)
(GOOGL), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-19 16:04:472023-07-19 17:50:56July 19, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Coders Are Next To Go

Tech Letter

The future is here, and for some, the news isn’t good.  

The big picture suggests that generative artificial intelligence stocks will benefit handsomely from this groundbreaking technology, but the losers aren’t as obvious as one might think.

If one might believe this is the cue to jumping head first into becoming an artificial intelligence programmer then think again.

Ironically enough, many of these jobs will, yes, be taken by the very technology itself, and we have received confirmation that this trend is likely to occur from management that makes the decisions of which staff to pay.

Why pay humans when an algorithm can do the same job?

Recently, a prominent generative AI executive stated that coders are at risk of losing jobs in the next 2-4 years.

This executive originates from one of the leading companies in the space, so it’s not like some fake expert offering his two cents either.

During an interview, this executive suggested that countries like India, where many IT jobs get outsourced, might be in trouble in the next few years because firms can just adopt AI tools to write, read, and review codes.

Even labor laws can’t prevent this giant replacement of human labor.

Tech giants like Google and Microsoft have shared similar concerns, though they argue that AI will create new jobs and humans need to co-exist with the technology.

Here is a quick summary of what I learned.

Outsourced coders up to level three programmers will be gone in the next year or two.

That's because new generative AI models "are like really talented grads" and will replace those who sit "in front of a computer" and never get noticed.

So it affects different models in different countries in different ways in different sectors.

In the United States, the two-week notice is real, and coders and engineers at international IT firms are at risk once Silicon Valley figures out they are expendable.

I must say that this might be the job apocalypse that many have been predicting.

The belt-tightening going on in Silicon Valley is just the beginning.

Next, we will see AI get rid of even more lucrative positions.

Google (GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai and Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella have also previously shared concerns about potential job loss due to AI.

Pichai and Nadella have repeatedly said that AI will eliminate grunt work.

In large corporations, many workers do just that – grunt work.

Not everyone is making strategic decisions that affect the direct fortunes of the company like Nadella and Pichai. Not everyone is Elon Musk.

AI will replace humans and CEOs like Pichai and Nadella are just being polite because they preside over a massive workforce.

They cannot come out in public and say that everyone will get fired. If they did that, workers would protest, revolt, and unionize as fast as possible. At the bare minimum, they will lay down flat and barely move a finger, resulting in company morale tanking.

At the stock level, this will boost revenue, margins, and profitability to a new golden era of tech stocks.

Workforces are about to get even leaner, and I am not talking about just firing the chief diversity officer or the chief climate change officer. The chief vegan foods officer for the office cafeteria was fired in the last round of cuts. The next round of cuts will start migrating up the value chain and it will be oh so painful.

 

coders

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-19 16:02:502023-08-01 13:22:21Coders Are Next To Go
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 14, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 14, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:

(SATURDAY, AUGUST 5, 2023 ROME, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(HOW TO FIND A GREAT OPTIONS TRADE)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-14 09:06:022023-07-14 17:01:15July 14, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 13, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 13, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:

(TUESDAY, AUGUST 1, 2023 FLORENCE, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(MSFT)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-13 09:06:402023-07-13 13:46:47July 13, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away

Diary, Newsletter

In the run-up to every options expiration, which is the third Friday of every month, there is a possibility that any short options positions you have may get assigned or called away.

If that happens, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.

Most of you have short option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.

The short options can get “assigned,” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position.

You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly.

Let’s say you get an email from your broker telling you that your call options have been assigned away. I’ll use the example of the Microsoft (MSFT) December 2019 $134-$137 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread.

For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point 8 days before the December 20 expiration date. In other words, what you bought for $4.50 last week is now $5.00!

All have to do is call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long position in your (MSFT) December 134 calls to close out your short position in the (MSFT) December $137 calls.

This is a perfectly hedged position, with both options having the same expiration date, the same amount of contracts in the same stock, so there is no risk. The name, number of shares, and number of contracts are all identical, so you have no exposure at all.

Calls are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.

To say it another way, you bought the (MSFT) at $134 and sold it at $137, paid $2.60 for the right to do so, so your profit is 40 cents, or ($0.40 X 100 shares X 38 contracts) = $1,520. Not bad for an 18-day limited risk play.

Sounds like a good trade to me.

Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.

A call owner may need to buy a long (MSFT) position after the close, and exercising his long December $134 call is the only way to execute it.

Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.

There are thousands of algorithms out there which may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.

Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.

And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it by writing shoddy algorithms.

And here’s another possible outcome in this process.

Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it. They’ll tell you to take delivery of your long stock and then most additional margin to cover the risk.

Either that, or you can just sell your shares on the following Monday and take on a ton of risk over the weekend. This generates a ton of commission for the brokers but impoverishes you.

There may not even be an evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days. It doesn’t pay. In fact, I think I’m the last one they really did train.

Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.

Brokers have so many legal ways to steal money that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.

This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.

Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.

If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.

Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.

If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.

 

Calling All Options!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Call-Options.png 345 522 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-13 09:02:172023-07-13 13:44:00A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 28, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 28, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(REGULATION HEATS UP)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (NVDA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-28 15:04:102023-06-28 16:00:09June 28, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Regulation Heats Up

Tech Letter

Silicon Valley has gone from the least regulated industry to trending the other way. On a global scale, draconian regulations are rearing their ugly head to really stymy places like China and artificial intelligence.
The European Union just rolled out a slew of proposed regulations on AI that could hamper its ability to embed itself in many tech companies.

The net result is highly bullish for Silicon Valley companies minus the chip companies that are experiencing revenue cuts.

When rules tighten, the entrenched benefit disproportionately and this could trigger a continuation of the tech rally that has been blistering hot this year.

Inversely, it will become even more difficult for start-ups to become unicorns, because they suffer more at smaller sizes to digest the higher amount of regulation that mature tech companies never faced.

Much of this is occurring at the highest level as the White House is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China, potentially adding to a list of banned semiconductor technology from Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and other US companies.

The U.S. Department of Commerce could prohibit shipments of chips from Nvidia and others to customers in China as soon as early next month.

Nvidia, which produces graphics chips that drive the technology behind OpenAI Inc’s ChatGPT and Alphabet Inc’s Bard chatbots, is one of those chip companies that could see a slide in revenue in the short term.

Across the pond where governments are specialists at regulation, the European Parliament has approved draft legislation to regulate AI-powered technology.

The Act applies to anyone who creates and disseminates AI systems in the EU, including foreign companies such as Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI.

As outlined in the Act, EU lawmakers seek to limit or prohibit AI technology they classify as unacceptable or high risk.

It’s a little vague who will be deemed high risk but in the crosshairs are technologies such as predictive policing systems and real-time, and remote biometric identification systems.

Silicon Valley cash cows can function without these intrusive elements.

The AI Act would give the European government the authority to levy heavy fines on AI companies that do not abide by its rules.

Financial penalties may be steeper than GDPR penalties, amounting to €40 million or an amount equal to up to 7% of a company’s worldwide annual turnover, whichever is higher.

Beyond the government’s power to enforce the Act, European citizens would have the power to file complaints against AI providers they believe are in breach of the Act.

European officials expect to reach a final agreement on the rules by the end of 2023 after spending years developing the legislation. Such swift and consistent momentum to regulate technology in Europe stands in stark contrast to the United States, where lawmakers are still grappling with initial regulatory steps.

If passed, the Act is expected to become law by 2025 at the earliest.

It’s a lot easier for tech firms to operate in the Wild West when there are no rules, but if there are rules, it’s better than American tech has already built cash cows to keep the party moving right along.

It’s true there won’t be much competition and possibly an oligarchy, but it will translate into much higher share prices for the likes of Apple, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.

 

ai act

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-28 15:02:592023-07-12 00:39:50Regulation Heats Up
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 26, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 26, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AMAZON JOINS THE PARTY)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (NVDA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-26 14:05:062023-06-26 14:38:21June 26, 2023
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