(PFE) Archives - Page 34 of 45 - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Is Johnson & Johnson the Best Coronavirus Stock?

To date, some coronavirus vaccine stocks have managed to offer investors huge gains within short periods.

Moderna (MRNA) is a prime example, climbing to over 400% in 2020 as more and more investors bet on the biotech’s COVID-19 program.

Interestingly, Pfizer (PFE) fell by less than 1% during the same period despite the fact that both companies led the COVID-19 vaccine race.

Actually, it was Pfizer that eventually won the first Emergency Use Authorization.

Investing in COVID-19 vaccines brought about vastly different outcomes.

Now, let’s take a look at the next company to potentially enter the market: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

At the moment, JNJ’s candidate is in Phase 3 trials. What makes this trial interesting is the dosing regimen.

JNJ is evaluating two options in its Phase 3 trials.

The first option, called “Ensemble,” studies the effect of a single dose of its COVID-19 vaccine.

The second option, “Ensemble 2,” examines how the vaccine works when administered in two doses.

Results are expected to be released before January 2021 ends.

If all turns out positive, then JNJ will be the third company to cross the COVID-19 vaccine race finish line.

Both Moderna and Pfizer require two doses. Even its close-to-market competitors like AstraZeneca (AZN) and Novavax (NVAX) have developed two-dose products.

Needless to say, a proven safe and effective one-dose regimen would provide JNJ’s vaccine a significant competitive advantage.

Obviously, people would prefer the idea of a one-jab vaccine instead of getting two. More importantly, this regimen would make it easier to vaccinate more individuals.

For example, Moderna’s goal is to supply 1 billion doses in 2021. However, that will only cover half or 500 million people.

In comparison, JNJ’s promise of producing 1 billion doses per year will be sufficient to immunize 1 billion individuals.

Another advantage is JNJ vaccine’s storage requirement.

Unlike Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines, JNJ’s candidate can be stored at refrigerator temperatures for at least 3 months.

Taking all these into consideration, JNJ’s vaccine is looking promising.

Now, let’s check out its revenue potential.

Taking cue from AstraZeneca, JNJ has announced its decision to offer its vaccine on a not-for-profit basis during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This means it plans to sell the product at cost.

Without any profit from this venture, we can’t count on the COVID-19 vaccine to add to the company’s earnings in the near future.

Post-pandemic, though, the company could eventually raise the price and start benefiting from its sales.

While there’s no definitive timeline, this could be around the later parts of 2021. Based on that prediction, JNJ could start benefiting from its COVID-19 vaccine sales by early 2022.

JNJ can easily become a leader in the coronavirus market if its one-dose vaccine gains regulatory approval from health agencies across the globe.

However, I don’t expect major gains in its share price even if it does happen.

From what I’ve observed so far with Moderna and Pfizer, the shares of clinical-stage biotechnology companies tend to soar while those of bigger biopharmaceutical counterparts do not.

That’s most likely because the smaller companies will rely heavily on the COVID-19 vaccine revenue while the more established companies, with their extensive range of commercialized products, won’t.

With the sheer size of JNJ, which has a market capitalization of over $427 billion, its shares seldom make huge moves.

Still, JNJ continues to show incremental and steady growth in profits, revenue, and even share price.

In fact, the company is up by over 10% over the previous year. More importantly, investors can always count on the company for dividends.

So, I wouldn’t buy JNJ shares only for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate. It’s not the best idea to buy a stock because of a single product anyway.

But, I would definitely buy JNJ shares for its overall portfolio and its ever-reliable increasing dividend payouts.

January 19, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
January 19, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(CAN NOVAVAX EXTEND ITS WINNING STREAK?)
(NVAX), (MRNA), (PFE), (AZN), (BNTX), (BTC)

Can Novavax Extend Its Winning Streak?

Biotech Letter

Would you believe that there was a bigger winner than Bitcoin (BTC) in 2020?

Amid the fanfare generated by COVID-19 vaccine developers like Moderna (MRNA) and Pfizer (PFE), there’s one biotechnology company that has quietly boosted its humble $4 share price to an impressive $128: Novavax (NVAX).

As incredible as that sounds, this isn’t the most unbelievable prediction for Novavax.

Despite recording a jaw-dropping 2,600% increase last year, this Maryland-based biotechnology company is projected to sustain the momentum in 2021 and beyond.

Let me share how Novavax can achieve a long-lasting winning streak.

Unlike Moderna and Pfizer, Novavax did not utilize RNA technology to develop NVX-CoV2373. Instead, the company opted for a more established approach.

The decision to pursue a more established technology could be viewed as a cost-cutting strategy for Novavax.

Doing so means dramatically lowering supply chain pressures, such as storage issues.

In effect, the Novavax vaccine would be the more convenient option that offers an equally potent result.

At this point, Novavax has yet to reveal its Phase 3 trial results. The tests, which involve trials in the UK, would prove to be the turning point for the company’s future.

Here’s a rough estimate of how the results could affect Novavax shares.

If the results show that NVX-CoV2373 is 90% effective, this would put the vaccine in the same league as Pfizer and Moderna. Consequently, shares will go up by 30% with this news.

Meanwhile, an efficacy result clocking in at less than 80% would have the stock falling by up to 20% primarily due to the strong competition in the COVID-19 market.

Approximately $40 billion in COVID-19 revenue is at stake this year.

While competitors Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca (AZN) have already had their vaccines approved for emergency use, Novavax still has a strong chance of getting a piece of the action.

Despite these candidates getting rolled out in other countries, Novavax’s NVAX-CoV2373 remains a heavy favorite among experts and analysts alike.

At this rate, NVX-CoV2373 could generate at least $4 billion of the $40 billion COVID-19 market in 2021.

Considering that Novavax has an $8 billion market capitalization, this alone more than justifies the company’s valuation.

Admittedly, Pfizer and Moderna hold the competitive advantage in being the first to market. It wouldn’t be surprising if both would end up gobbling up market share while Novavax awaits regulatory approval.

More importantly, both have achieved the coveted name recognition when it comes to COVID-19 vaccine so that could offer them power in the soon-to-be-crowded marketplace down the road.

However, both vaccine leaders have a considerable drawback.

Their vaccines require extremely delicate storage and transportation.

In fact, Pfizer and BioNTech’s (BNTX) BNT162b2 must be stored at minus 94 degrees—a requirement that not all countries, much less commercial distributors could adhere to.

This is where Novavax’s vaccine comes in.

NVX-CoV2373 can be stored and transported at refrigerated temperatures. This means it would be easier to distribute particularly in remote areas.

Any hiccups with storage or transportation involving the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines could offer Novavax an opening to generate vaccine sales that would otherwise no longer be available.

This scenario would translate to a more dominant presence of Novavax in the second half of 2021 until the early part of 2022.

Pfizer and Moderna may have been the first to market, but Novavax’s vaccine holds the potential to generate a sizable impact on sales over the long term.

In terms of revenue, the vaccine would be a significant boost for Novavax. It would transform from a zero product revenue to billions in a short period.

While Novavax has yet to announce the official pricing for the product, we can use its US price of $16 per dose as a benchmark for the rest of the contracts.

So far, Novavax has secured roughly orders for 300 million doses in the US alone. This would amount to $4.8 billion in sales—and all signs point to the number climbing higher this year.

Novavax has been ramping up its capacity to produce as many as 2 billion doses by mid-2021.

In comparison, Pfizer has a maximum capacity of 1.3 billion doses this year while Moderna would peak at 1 billion.

Evidently, Novavax holds an edge over the two companies in terms of capacity to fill orders.

Outside its COVID-19 efforts, Novavax has another potential blockbuster in its pipeline.

Although data is sparse, the company is expected to file for regulatory approval for its experimental flu vaccine called NanoFlu.

Oddly enough, NanoFlu was the reason that Novavax trounced the cryptocurrency surges in 2020.

Investors got all fired up following the promising showing of the flu vaccine candidate, with the stock gaining unprecedented attention when it reported remarkable results in a head-to-head study against the leading flu vaccine in the market today, Sanofi’s (SNY) FluZone Quadrivalent.

With all these in mind, Novavax’s earnings outlook is showing strong signs of even more stellar and stronger performance than that of Moderna this year.

So far, earnings per share for Novavax this year is estimated at $21 while Moderna’s is $10.

Another possible game-changer for Novavax is its plan to combine a flu-coronavirus vaccine to be marketed post-pandemic.

Before making any moves though, it’s important to invest in Novavax with all the facts out in the open.

Inasmuch as it’s a promising stock, this is still a risky investment. This means that only aggressive investors should consider buying this biotechnology stock.

In a number of ways, Novavax and Bitcoin share some similarities.

Both are speculative assets that could either skyrocket or sink. They’re extremely attractive to aggressive investors on the lookout for big wins but also unafraid of massive risks.

The main difference is that with Novavax, it’s simpler to understand the reason for its rise or fall.

The potential drivers for its success or failure appear to be less cryptic than those behind the cryptocurrency.

January 12, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
January 12, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(DEFEATING GRIMMER REAPERS)
(PFE), (BNTX), (MRNA), (CVAC)

Defeating Grimmer Reapers

Biotech Letter

They say there’s always a light at the end of the tunnel, but what a very long tunnel we’re in right now.

More contagious strains of the SARS-CoV-2 have been discovered in the UK and South Africa, with these new variants threatening to make the situation worse before we even get the chance to try to make things better.

However, there’s still hope.

Just take another look at the leading vaccines developed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and you’ll realize that we could be nearing the light at the end of this dark road.

In fact, the innovative solutions that emerged in 2020 could serve as beacons of light to illuminate the darker paths that the biotechnology and healthcare sector has been struggling with for decades.

The more we study the effects of the new vaccines, the more it becomes plausible that they could not only be used as weapons to fight off the 2020’s ultimate grim reaper, COVID-19, but also annihilate grimmer reapers like cancer.

Among the vaccine developers that launched their COVID-19 program, the technology used by Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE) – BioNTech (BNTX), and CureVac NV (CVAC) proved to be the most groundbreaking.

All these utilized the nucleic acids, more commonly known as RNA or mRNA, to create their COVID-19 vaccines.

Traditional vaccines are typically injected into the body to trigger an immune response, which would, later on, be useful in fighting off the live pathogen. The problem with this is that it requires so much time and exposes the vaccines to contamination.

In comparison, mRNA vaccines do not suffer from these setbacks. Basically, these vaccines instruct the body to replicate parts of the virus.

In the case of SARS-CoV-2, the mRNA vaccines tell our bodies to replicate the proteins wrapped around the virus. This way, the body gets to practice on the replicated proteins and prepare for the day when the actual virus shows up in the system.

By familiarizing the body with the genetic makeup of the deadly virus, the mRNA vaccines help us perfect the immune response for when the real thing attacks us—and therein lies the much bigger promise of this technology.

mRNA has the capacity to instruct our cells to create whatever protein necessary, which means it can be applied to fight off other diseases apart from COVID-19.

Researchers since the 1970s have been attempting to shed light on this technique but failed to get traction.

Due to the urgency caused by the pandemic, companies like BioNTech and Moderna have been given practically carte blanche of the funds to finally develop the mRNA vaccines and show the world not only how potent it could be but how quickly we can have it ready compared to more traditional processes.

Now, the technology is gaining more attention because it could finally be the cure to a myriad of diseases including cancer.

These days, we treat malignant tumors by zapping them with radiation or via chemicals. These methods tend to damage lots of surrounding tissues in the process.

Moderna and BioNTech have come up with a better idea.

Instead of blindly zapping in one general direction, they believe that each should be treated as a genetically unique tumor. Therefore, it would be more effective and less damaging to the patients if their immune systems are accurately programmed to attack specific enemies.

This is where mRNA comes in.

Once the antigen is identified, the scientists can determine its unique makeup or fingerprint.

Then, they can reverse engineer its entire cellular instructions to be able to come up with the blueprint that can help them develop an accurate plan on how to target the culprit.

Similar to how Moderna and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccines work, the body will then be conditioned to do the rest.

What’s more exciting is that these plans are no longer just ideas.

Both Moderna and BioNTech have been filling their pipelines with drug trials for cancer treatments of the skin, lung, breast, pancreas, prostate, and brain. They’ve been working on mRNA-based vaccines for a wide range of diseases as well including Zika, rabies, and even influenza.

The success of Moderna and BioNTech’s COVID-19 programs accomplished more than just giving the companies a marketable product. It turbo-charged decades-long processes.

Remember, it only took 11 months since the discovery of the SARS-CoV-2 virus for the UK and US regulators to declare that the mRNA vaccine for COVID-19 is not only safely tolerated by people but also effective.

Prior to this, no vaccine had been developed in less than four years. The approval period takes even longer.

That is, COVID-19 inadvertently led to the grand debut and definitive proof of concept of this much-awaited technology.

If you missed out on Moderna or BioNTech’s rally in 2020, buying on the dip is definitely a smart move now.

mRNA

January 5, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
January 5, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(ANNOUNCING THE MAD HEDGE BIOTECH AND HEALTH CARE TRADE ALERT SERVICE)
(WHY ASTRAZENECA IS NOT JUST A COVID PLAY)
(AZN), (PFE), (MRNA), (JNJ), (ALXN)

Why AstraZeneca Is Not Just A COVID Play

Biotech Letter

The latest update on AstraZeneca’s (AZN) COVID-19 vaccine candidate has received a lot of attention from investors.

The company and its research partner Oxford University recently landed a deal to deliver 2 million doses of their COVID-19 vaccine weekly to the UK starting mid-January.

This is on top of the massive deal AstraZeneca sealed with India for emergency use approval as well.

While these are exciting updates, the reality is that AstraZeneca aims to market its COVID-19 vaccine candidate at cost.

As the race to supply COVID-19 vaccine to the world continues, it’s undeniable that a huge chunk of the roughly $40 billion COVID-19 revenue would go to the current frontrunners Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA).

This is particularly true for Moderna’s case as the biotechnology company employed a revolutionary technology to create its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

The success of its vaccine so far is indicative of future treatments and even vaccines based on the mRNA technology. This offers incredible promise not only for the current pandemic but for a myriad of rare diseases.

In comparison, AstraZeneca and even Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) opted for more traditional approaches for their COVID-19 vaccine candidates.

While these are also promising, it’s likely that these companies do not anticipate their COVID-19 programs to be the profit centers for 2021.

In fact, there are a lot of good reasons to buy AstraZeneca shares right now – and its COVID-19 vaccine candidate didn’t make the top of the list.

One of the main reasons AstraZeneca deserves a spot in your portfolio is the fact that it already has an established and successful pipeline.

While its COVID-19 program definitely boosted its popularity, this effort was not altogether necessary in terms of the company’s overall growth.

Despite the pandemic that brought down businesses in 2020, including commercial launches of new drugs, sales of AstraZeneca’s new products rose 9% year over year.

In fact, throughout the past 12 months, the company managed to generate approximately $1.9 billion in free cash flow.

In the first nine months of 2020, the company reported core earnings growth of 13% year over year, with a 2.8% dividend.

To close the year with a bang, AstraZeneca announced its $39 billion acquisition of one of our closely-watched biotechnology companies: Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN).

Although this initially didn’t bode well with its investors, AstraZeneca is set to gain the blockbuster franchise composed of the Soliris-Ultomiris duo.

At its current growth rate, Alexion’s prized Soliris franchise is estimated to generate at least $6 billion in sales in 2021.

Meanwhile, Soliris’ longer-lasting version, Ultomiris, which was launched in 2018, is projected to rake in almost twice in profits this year.

Both Soliris and Ultomiris require regular treatment, with the former administered every other week while the latter is an infusion needed every other month.

Although there are less expensive biosimilar options already making the in the market today, particularly for Soliris, the move of Alexion to develop Ultomiris as a longer-lasting and more convenient version all but obliterates any future competition.

Simply put, AstraZeneca will have a monopoly of this market once the acquisition is complete by mid-2021.

Speaking of convenient options for prolonged treatments, AstraZeneca recently gained expanded approval for its easy-to-swallow tablet called Tagrisso. This drug is developed for lung cancer patients with tumors caused by specific gene mutations.

The latest approval allows Tagrisso to be prescribed to newly diagnosed patients who just had their tumors removed surgically.

This presents a lucrative market for AstraZeneca considering that these patients undergo therapy for long periods.

More importantly, AstraZeneca doesn’t really need to market Tagrisso’s value to oncologists.

Clinical results show that the tablet can lower the risk of the disease’s recurrence or even death by as much as 80% among their patients.

Putting these results in the context of AstraZeneca’s records, Tagrisso’s sales for the third quarter of 2020 alone grew by 30% year over year to reach $4.6 billion.

With the recent FDA approval, this number is set to increase to transform Tagrisso into a certified blockbuster drug.

Other than Tagrisso, AstraZeneca has a number of oncology blockbusters in its portfolio and pipeline.

In the first nine months of 2020, the sales of the company’s therapies unit rose by 23% year over year to a record $8.2 billion. Admittedly, Tagrisso contributed a substantial amount.

However, it’s not the sole growth driver in AstraZeneca’s oncology lineup.

Another moneymaker is Lynparza, which showed a 42% jump year over year in its third quarter sales in 2020 to reach $1.9 billion.

This drug, which was initially approved as an ovarian cancer treatment, is now prescribed to treat prostate, pancreatic, and breast cancer. Therefore, the expanded approvals are expected to offer more lift this year.

Another promising addition to AstraZeneca’s oncology pipeline is Enhertu, which the company gained from its $1.35 billion collaboration project with Daiichi Sankyo.

Since the two companies started working together last year, Enhertu has received approval for breast cancer patients who relapse or do not respond to standard care.

Aside from this, Enhertu is also under review as a treatment for stomach cancer.

Although the companies are still awaiting approval, the treatment is reported to have a great chance at approval because of its impressive ability to lower the risk of cancer patients’ death by 41% compared to chemotherapy.

AstraZeneca’s decision to boost its oncology segment by adding the likes of Alexion Pharmaceuticals and collaborating with Daiichi Sankyo guarantees that the company remains in a position to be able to deliver gains no matter what happens to the broader economy.

The continuous success for all the products in AstraZeneca’s pipeline could lead to market-crushing gains.

However, investors who own the stock don’t necessarily need to rely on luck to know that they are set to get a healthy return.

That assurance makes AstraZeneca a great stock to buy today and hold for a long time.

December 29, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 29, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(BUY BEFORE THE RALLY)
(PFE), (MRNA), (AZN), (MRK), (GILD), (VTRS)

December 22, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 22, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

THE MOST FAMOUS CANCER STOCK YOU’VE NEVER HEARD OF
(TRIL), (NVAX), (PFE), (IMMU), (SHOP), (GILD), (ABBV)

The Most Famous Cancer Stock You’ve Never Heard of

Biotech Letter

Biotechnology stocks have proven time and time again to be excellent growth vehicles for risk-tolerant investors.

Underscoring this claim are companies like COVID-19 vaccine frontrunner Novavax (NVAX), which generated jaw-dropping returns on capital for their investors within an impressively short period.

Now, another biotechnology stock is showing telltale signs of following their footsteps: Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL).

Trillium’s story is a familiar one in the biotechnology industry.

Trading only in the penny stock range back in 2019, the company’s share price practically quadrupled since the start of 2020.

Taking into consideration that this meteoric rise actually happened while COVID-19 was blasting the world to smithereens, it’s hardly surprising that this news didn’t receive much media attention.

Trillium’s shares are currently up by an astounding 1,260% -- and the company still has so much room to grow from here.

For context, Trillium had a market capitalization of $7 million in November 2019. This number skyrocketed to $1.3 billion since its shift to cancer technology.

Although a lot of factors came into play, the key turning point for Trillium was when the company decided to go all-in on its cancer programs.

Ultimately, Trillium’s goal is to challenge chemotherapy.

The move to shutter its lead programs on tumor treatments and instead focus on developing cancer-fighting technology was the gamble of a lifetime for the company.

This gutsy move impressed investors, and Trillium was never the same since then.

Today, Trillium is the No. 1 stock on Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index, overtaking its previous leader e-commerce giant Shopify (SHOP) by almost 10-fold.

In the US, Trillium shares rank as the No. 4 best-performing company on the Nasdaq Composite Index.

While its epic stock market rally may have some investors feeling left out, all signs point to further gains in the future even for those who missed the initial boom.

Among the major capitalists of this biotechnology company is giant biopharmaceutical company and COVID-19 vaccine leader Pfizer (PFE), which invested $25 million in Trillium’s common stock.

While this equity stake may seem small in relation to Pfizer’s $212.16 billion market capitalization, this initial show of confidence is hailed as a prelude to an even bigger investment in the future.

So far, the most exciting cancer treatments in Trillium’s pipeline are TTI-621 and TTI-622.

These programs are in the same class of emerging cancer technologies, called CD47-based therapies, that prompted Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) $4.9 billion acquisition of Forty Seven, Inc. in April this year.

Aside from Gilead, AbbVie (ABBV) has also been reported to have invested a huge sum in this technology.

In simplest terms, CD47-based therapies can bypass the “don’t eat me signal” put up by some cancer cells in an effort to evade immune detection.

Thus far, both TTI-621 and TTI-622 have been showing promising results. Trillium recently announced that it will increase the dosage in these programs.

While Trillium leaders have not been specific in terms of being open to an acquisition, their recent statements indicate that they are not completely opposed to one.

It’s either that or a partnership with a company as big or even bigger than Pfizer.

As with all the biotechnology stocks, however, there will always be a risk.

For Trillium, the most evident one is competition.

While it’s true that the company has been recognized as the leader in the CD47 arena, more and more competitors are entering the immuno-oncology space.

Right now, the most obvious rival is Gilead, which added Immunomedics (IMMU) to its arsenal via a $21 billion acquisition deal.

Given the sheer amount of money that Gilead has been spending to practically corner the immuno-oncology market, it’s to be expected that more biopharmaceutical titans will enter the fray.

This is one of the reasons Trillium has been tagged as a prime candidate for a massive acquisition deal soon. So far, Pfizer is considered the most probable suitor.

Despite its astonishing performance this year, Trillium’s market capitalization still remains within the small-cap territory. That’s to be expected since its lead assets are still undergoing trials.

Considering that it is an early-stage biotechnology stock, Trillium does not have much in terms of income.

However, the company does have enough cash to last for a while. At the moment, it has $130 million cash.

With its total expenses of $38.8 million in 2019, I say this could offer the company more than three years of breathing room financially.

But it would be shocking if Trillium’s value won’t enter the large-cap territory (higher than $10 billion) if and when the company’s high-value assets reach the late-stage studies.

The fact that it’s also an attractive acquisition candidate offers incredible incentive to its investors.

Simply put, Trillium’s stock could get as much as 1,000% gain over the coming two to three years, making it an ideal investment for risk-tolerant investors.

Tag Archive for: (PFE)