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Tag Archive for: (TLT)

MHFTR

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Here's the Big Call

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Well that tears it!

Flamethrowers! Yes, on the list of 125 products that China is imposing new 25% import duties are flamethrowers.

And I was so looking forward to getting a flamethrower of my own with which to singe lazy and errant stock analysts from whom we all are afflicted.

I guess I'll just have to buy American, which I already do with my cars (Teslas).

The real call here is that the NASDAQ has entered a well-defined trading range, from 6,600 to 7,600, where it will remain trapped for six months until the November midterm congressional elections. After that, we will rally 10% in year-end rally.

The deep in-the-money call spread strategy I employ is ideally suited to this kind of go-nowhere market. While other traders are tearing their hair out, you'll be raking in the money every month as if you've just been adopted by a new rich uncle.

The president, absolutely cacophonous about the riches created by a rising stock market, has developed lockjaw in a falling one.

The reason was provided by trade advisor Peter Navarro, who said quite simply that the markets were wrong in their belief that trade wars decimate share prices.

My half century of trading tells that markets are never wrong, only people are.

And while the chief architect of our China trade policy has never been there, I managed to find it in 1974. It's easy. You just head east.

Here are some harsh numbers to show you how quixotic the administration policies are. By imposing $25 billion in import duties to protect dying American industries, investors cut $3 trillion off of US stock market capitalization.

That is a 120:1 risk reward AGAINST us. That's NOT the kind of trade I'm used to strapping on.

I'm sure the Chinese are thinking, "How would you like to lose another $3 trillion?" "How about a recession and bear market?" and "See you $25 billion and raise you $50 billion!"

Here is a number that gets lost in translation of the $1 trillion in two-way trade between the US and China. Some 90% of the profits accrue to the US. It is an issue that officials in Beijing have been complaining to me about for decades, which essentially makes them the low-waged manufacturing colony.

That iPhone X that Foxconn makes for $100 Apple (AAPL) sells for $1,000 in the US.

One then has to ask the cogent question, "If you're winning the game, why change the rules?"

The Chinese are not a nation you want to antagonize. They endured 2 million casualties in Korea just to inflict 50,000 on us. Chosin Reservoir looms large in my family - the best fighting retreat in history carried out by the Marine Corp.

The Chinese can also suffer more pain than Americans, with most only one or two generations out of a $300 annual per capita income.

Will the US November congressional election affect economic fundamentals" I doubt it. The mere fact that the election is out of the way is worth a 10% stock market rally into year-end.

The March Nonfarm Payroll Report was a disappointment for the second month in a row, coming in at a feeble 103,000. The headline unemployment rate remains at a decade low of 4.1%.

The stock market didn't care, with the overwhelming focus now on trade issues.

The really important numbers now, Average Hourly Earnings, were up a slightly inflationary 0.3%, but no one noticed.

The January and February reports we revised downward by a steep 50,000.

Manufacturing gained 22,000 jobs, Health Care was up 22,000, and Professional and Business Services up 33,000. Construction lost 15,000 jobs, thanks to raising interest rates.

The Broader U-6 "Discouraged Worker" unemployment rate dropped 0.2% to 8.0%, a new decade low.

As a stand-alone number, the report is not important. However, look at it in the context of a rising tide of recent, slightly negative economic data reports and one has to start to get concerned. Is it the weather, or the beginning of something larger?

We are only a week off from when the Q1, 2018 earnings season kicks off, which will probably deliver some of the strongest reports in US history.

Until then, the data reports will be relatively benign.

On Monday, April 9, nothing of note is announced.

On Tuesday, April 10, we receive March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

On Wednesday, April 11, at 8:30 AM EST, we learn the all-important Consumer Price Index, the most important read on inflation. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) reports.

Thursday, April 12, leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a dramatic rise of 24,000 last week (another bad number). BlackRock (BLK) reports.

On Friday, April 13, at 10:00 AM EST, we get the JOLTS Report on private sector job openings. It is the big day for bank earnings, with Citigroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all reporting.

The week ends as usual with the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM EST. Last week brought a drop of 2.

Followers of the Mad Hedge Trade Alert Service enjoyed one of their best weeks in years. Executing on the views above, I nailed the market bottom, hauling in an eye-popping 5.06% in performance in a single day.

I artfully used the huge sell-off days to pile on long positions in Google (GOOGL) and JP Morgan (JPM), and sell short US Treasury bonds and volatility (VXX). On the up days I bought gold (GLD).

It all worked like a charm, and every position is now profitable.

That brings April up to a +4.76% profit, my trailing one-year return to +49.72%, and my eight-year average annualized return up to 34.55%. We are an eyelash short of a new all-time performance high.

As for me, I'll be shutting down my Lake Tahoe estate for a while, not that the snow has turned to rain. The lake level is at a 118-year high, and Reno, NV, is worried about flooding. All the floodgates are open.

What a winter! I barely had time to tear myself away from my screens to visit the slopes.

Good Luck and Good Trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/china-story-1-image-7-1.jpg 225 336 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-09 01:07:052018-04-09 01:07:05The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Here's the Big Call
MHFTR

April 6, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 6, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, JUNE 15, DENVER, CO, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(DON'T MISS THE APRIL 11 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(TLT), (GOOGL), (JPM), (VXX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-06 01:09:572018-04-06 01:09:57April 6, 2018
MHFTR

The Crash Coming to a Market Near You

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I'm sure that most of you are spending your free time devouring the utterly fascinating pages of "Fire and Fury" these days, now in its 12th week on the New York Times best-seller list.

I, however, am reading slightly different subject matter.

As obscure, academic, and abstruse the "Global Dollar Credit: Links to US Monetary Policy and Leverage" may sound, published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), it has been an absolute blockbuster among strategists at the major hedge funds.

And given the apocalyptic conclusions of the report, it might well rank as one of the best horror stories of the year, worthy of the bloodiest zombie flick.

I'll give it to you in a nutshell.

Corporate borrowers outside the US have ramped up their borrowing astronomically over the past 17 years, from $2 trillion to $9 trillion.

This makes them extraordinarily sensitive to any rise in US interest rates and the dollar. Emerging market debt alone has doubled to $4.5 trillion.

Easy money has encouraged mal investment and overinvestment in projects that never would have seen the light of day if unlimited financing were not available at 1%. In other words, it is all a giant house of cards ready to collapse.

I know a lot of you thrive on folk-based economic theories you picked up on the Internet based on monetarism, Austrian economics, and the theories of Friedrich August von Hayek, that all have the dollar collapsing under a mountain of debt.

In fact, the complete opposite has come true. The global economy has become "dollarized," with companies and governments in almost all nations relying on the buck as their principal means of financing.

The end result of all this has been to vastly expand the power of the Federal Reserve far beyond America's borders. Even the smallest rise in US interest rates, such as the 1/4% hike mooted for June, could trigger a cascade of corporate defaults around the world.

Think of subprime, with a turbocharger, running on pure nitro.

This is having a huge deflationary effect on the economies of many emerging nations.

Malaysia's sovereign wealth fund has almost gone under after a series of bad bets against the dollar. There is thought to be another troubled dollar short coming out of Hong Kong worth $900 million.

This is forcing countries to liquidate their US Treasury Bonds to cover local losses.

Further exacerbating the situation has been the crash of the price of oil, which has turned producing countries from suppliers to takers of liquidity to the global credit markets. Even after last year's monster rally, oil is still trading at 60% below the 2011 peak.

The net net of all of this is to increase the risk of surprise blowups overseas, both by banks and the private borrowers. This will increase the volatility of financial instruments everywhere.

The Bank for International Settlements is an exclusive club of the world's central banks. It is based in Basel, Switzerland (great swimming in the Rhine there), with further offices in Hong Kong and Mexico City. Its goal is it to coordinate policies among different nations.

The BIS was originally founded in 1930 to facilitate payment of German reparations following the Versailles Treaty ending WWI.

As a regular groupie on the central banking scene, I have been reading the research publications for many decades.

 

 

 

 

It All Started Here in Versailles

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Versailles-story-3-image-4-1-e1522882415110.jpg 216 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-05 01:06:032018-04-05 01:06:03The Crash Coming to a Market Near You
MHFTR

April 3, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
April 3, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TUESDAY, JUNE 12, NEW ORLEANS, LA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(MARCH 28 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (TBT), (FXY), (GS), (FCX), (CSCO), (INTC), (NEM),
(RIGHTSIZING YOUR TRADING)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-04-03 01:09:312018-04-03 01:09:31April 3, 2018
MHFTR

March 28. 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
March 28, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FRIDAY, APRIL 6, INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA, STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(FROM THE FRONT LINES OF THE TRADE WAR),
(AAPL), (AVGO), (QCOM), (TLT),
(HOW THE MAD HEDGE MARKET TIMING ALGORITHM TRIPLED MY PERFORMANCE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-28 01:09:272018-03-28 01:09:27March 28. 2018
MHFTR

From the Front Line of the Trade War

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Poke your hand into a hornet's nest and you can count on an extreme reaction, a quite painful one.

As California is the growth engine for the entire US economy, accounting for 20% of US GDP, it is no surprise that it has become the primary target of Chinese retaliation in the new trade war.

The Golden State exported $28.5 billion worth of products to China in 2017, primarily electronic goods, with a host of agricultural products a close second.

In the most devious way possible, the Middle Kingdom targeted Trump supporters in the most liberal state in the country with laser-like focus. California exports 46% of its pistachios to China, followed by 35% of its exported plums, 20% of exported oranges, and 12% of its almonds.

By comparison, California imported a gargantuan $160.5 billion worth of goods from China last year, mostly electronics, clothing, toys, and other low-end consumer goods.

Some $16 billion of this was recycled back into the state via investment in real estate and technology companies.

Anecdotal evidence shows that figure could be dwarfed by the purchase of California homes by Chinese individuals looking for a safe place to hide their savings. Local brokers report that up to one-third of recent purchases have been by Chinese nationals paying all cash.

The Chinese tried to spend more. Their money is thought to be behind Broadcom's (AVGO) $105 billion bid for QUALCOMM (QCOM), which was turned down for national security reasons.

The next big chapter in the trade war will be over the theft of intellectual property, and that one will be ALL about the Golden State.

Also at risk is virtually Apple's (AAPL) entire manufacturing base in China, where more than 1 million workers at Foxconn assemble iPhones, Macs, iPads, and iPods.

The Cupertino, CA, giant could get squeezed from both sides. The Chinese could interfere with its production facilities, or its phones could get slapped with an American import duty.

So far, the trade war has been more bluff than bite. The US duties announced come to only $3 billion on $50 billion worth of trade. China responded with incredible moderation, only restricting $3 billion worth of imports.

By comparison, in 2017 the US imported a total of $505.6 billion in goods from China and exported $130.4 billion. Against this imbalance, the US runs a largest surplus in services.

The next Chinese escalation will involve a 25% tariff on American pork and recycled aluminum. Who is the largest pork producer in the US? Iowa, with $4.2 billion worth, and the location of an early presidential election primary.

Beyond that, Beijing has darkly hinted that is will continue to boycott new US Treasury bond auctions, as it has done for the past six months, or unload some if its massive $1.6 trillion in bond holdings.

Given the price action in the bond market today, with the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) at a two-month high, I would say that the market doesn't believe that for two seconds. The Chinese won't cut off its nose to spite its face.

In the end, I think not much will come of this trade war. That's what the stock market told us yesterday with a monster 700-point rally, the biggest in three years.

The administration is discovering to its great surprise that its base is overwhelmingly against a trade war. And as business slows down, it will become evident in the numbers as well.

The US was the big beneficiary from the global trading system. Why change the rules of a game we are winning?

Still, national pride dies hard.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/California-chart-1-1-e1522182790519.jpg 217 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-28 01:07:062018-03-28 01:07:06From the Front Line of the Trade War
MHFTR

March 27, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
March 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DON'T MISS THE MARCH 28 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(TEN MORE UGLY MESSAGES FROM THE BOND MARKET),
(TLT), (TBT), (USO), (GLD), (GS), (SPY)
(FRIENDS WHO WILL EXECUTE MY TRADE ALERTS FOR YOU)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-27 01:09:572018-03-27 01:09:57March 27, 2018
MHFTR

March 23, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
March 23, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DON'T MISS THE MARCH 28 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(FRIDAY, APRIL 6, INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA, STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(WHY US BONDS LOVE CHINESE TARIFFS),
(TLT), (TBT), (SOYB), (BA), (GM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-23 01:09:512018-03-23 01:09:51March 23, 2018
MHFTR

March 22, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
March 22, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE FED SIGNALS HALF SPEED AHEAD),
(TLT), (UUP), (FXE), (FXY), (FB),
(WHY YOU WILL LOSE YOUR JOB IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-03-22 01:08:052018-03-22 01:08:05March 22, 2018
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Bond Crash Has Only Just Started

Diary, Newsletter

When I was a little kid in the early 1950s, my grandfather used to endlessly rail against Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The WWI veteran, who was mustard gassed in the trenches of France and was a lifetime, died-in-the-wool Republican, said the former president was a dictator and a traitor to his class who trampled the constitution with complete disregard. Candidates Hoover, Landon, and Dewey would have done much better jobs.

What was worse, FDR had run up such enormous debts during the Great Depression that, not only would my life be ruined, so would my children's lives. As a six year old, this disturbed me deeply, as it appeared that just out of diapers, my life was already pointless.

Grandpa continued his ranting until three packs a day of unfiltered Lucky Strikes finally killed him in 1977. He insisted until the day he died that there was no definitive proof that cigarettes caused lung cancer, even though during to war they were referred to as ?coffin nails?.

What my grandfather?s comments did do was spark in me a permanent interest in the government bond market, not only ours, but everyone else?s around the world.

So, whatever happened to the despised, future ending Roosevelt debt? In short, it went to money heaven.

I like to use old movies as examples. Remember, when someone walked into a diner in those old black and white flicks? The prices on the wall menu? said: ?Coffee: 5 cents, Hamburgers: 10 cents, Steak: 50 cents.?

That is where the Roosevelt debt went. By the time the 20 and 30-year Treasury bonds issued in the 1930s came due, WWII, Korea, and Vietnam happened, along with the great inflation that followed.

The purchasing power of the dollar cratered, falling roughly 90%, Coffee was now $1.00, a hamburger $2.00, and a cheap steak at Outback cost $10.00. The government, in effect, only had to pay back 10 cents on the dollar in terms of current purchasing power on whatever it borrowed in the thirties.

Who paid for this free lunch? Bond owners, who received minimal and, often, negative real inflation adjusted returns on fixed income investments for three decades.

In the end, it was the risk avoiders who picked up the tab. This is why bonds were known as ?certificates of confiscation? during the seventies.

This is not a new thing. About 300 years ago, governments figured out there was easy money to be made by issuing paper money, borrowing massively, stimulating the local economy, and then repaying the debt in devalued future currencies.

This is one of the main reasons why we have governments, and why they have grown so big. Unsurprisingly, France was the first, followed by England and every other major country.

Ever wonder how the new, impoverished United States paid for the Revolutionary War? It issued paper money by the bale, which dropped in purchasing power by two thirds by the end of the conflict in 1783. The British helped too by flooding the country with counterfeit paper money.

The really fascinating thing about financial markets so far this year is that I see history repeating itself. Owners of bonds had a great start, but I think the worm has turned.

I agree with bond maven, Geoffrey Gundlach, that bonds peaked in both the US and Europe last week, and that we are eventually heading back to a 2.75%-3.0% yield on the ten-year Treasury bond. Geoffrey has been long bonds until now.

Sell every rally for the rest of the year.

Bondholders can expect to receive a long series of rude awakenings when they get their monthly statements. No wonder Bill Gross, the former head of bond giant, PIMCO, says he expects to get ashes in his stocking for Christmas this year.

The scary thing is that we could be only two years into a new 30-year bear market for bonds that lasts all the way until 2042.

This is certainly what the demographics are saying, which predict an inflationary blow off in decades to come that could take short-term Treasury yields to a nosebleed 12% once more.

That scenario has the leveraged short Treasury bond ETF (TBT), which has recently leapt from $31 to $43, soaring all the way to $200.

If you wonder how yields could get that high in a decade, consider one important fact. The largest buyers of American bonds for the past three decades have been Japan and China. Between them, they have soaked up over $2 trillion worth of our debt, some 12% of the total outstanding.

Unfortunately, both countries have already entered very negative demographic pyramids, which will forestall any future large purchases of foreign bonds. They are going to need the money at home to care for burgeoning populations of old age pensioners.

So, who becomes the buyer of last resort? No one, unless the Federal Reserve comes back with QE IV, V, and VI.

Check out the chart below, and it is clear that the downtrend in long term Treasury bond yields going all the way back to April, 2011 is broken, and that we are now heading substantially up.

The old resistance level at 2.40% will become the new support. That targets a new range for bonds of 2.40%-2.90%, possibly for the rest of 2016.

There is a lesson to be learned today from the demise of the Roosevelt debt. It tells us that the government should be borrowing as much as it can right now with the longest maturity possible at these ultra low interest rates and spending it all.

With inflation at nil, they have a free pass to do so. In effect, it never has to pay it back, but enables us to reap immediate benefits. My friend, Fed Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, certainly thinks so.

If I were king of the world, I would borrow $5 trillion tomorrow and disburse it only in areas that create domestic US jobs. Not a penny would go to new social programs. Long-term capital investments should be the sole target. Here is my shopping list:

$1 trillion ? new Interstate freeway system
$1 trillion ? additional infrastructure repairs and maintenance
$1 trillion ? conversion of our transportation system to natural gas
$1 trillion ? construction of a rural broadband network
$1 trillion ? investment in R&D for everything

The projects above would create 5 million new jobs quickly.

Who would pay for all of this? Today?s investors in government bonds, half of whom are foreigners, principally the Chinese and Japanese.

How did my life turn out? Was it ruined, as my grandfather predicted? Actually, I've done pretty well for myself, as did the rest of my generation, the baby boomers. My kids are doing OK too.

Grandpa was always a better historian than a forecaster. But he did have the last laugh. He made a fortune in real estate, betting correctly on the inflation that always follows borrowing binges.

tlt
tbt
ust30y
Grandpa Thomas

Grandpa (Right) in 1916 Was a Better Historian than Forecaster

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Grandpa-Thomas.jpg 606 413 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-12-21 01:07:022016-12-21 01:07:02The Bond Crash Has Only Just Started
Page 93 of 102«‹9192939495›»

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