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Tag Archive for: (TSLA)

MHFTR

September 14, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 14, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(SOME GOOD NEWS FROM TESLA), (TSLA),
(SOME SAGE ADVICE ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-14 01:08:442018-09-13 21:07:02September 14, 2018
MHFTR

Some Good News from Tesla

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I’ll give you a chance to pick yourself off the floor first.

While the media focus seems to be overwhelmingly on problems with the Tesla 3 (TSLA) production these days, the fact is that some of the company’s other business lines are growing like gangbusters.

Orders for the groundbreaking Tesla Powerwall were up an eye-popping 450% during the first half of 2018. This device costs $5,800 ($4,060 after the federal alternative investment tax credit) and can store enough power to run your house for three days. When integrated with your solar rooftop array the combined system allows you to reap a greater return from your alternative energy investment.

Tesla could sell more Powerwalls but is constrained by lithium ion battery supplies from its Sparks, Nevada, Gigafactory. Doubling the world’s lithium ion battery supply in one shot, Tesla is already shopping for a location for a second Gigafactory.

As the company made ramping up Tesla 3 production to 100,000 units this year its top priority, the car has first call on battery supplies.

Tesla has also recently completed several utility-sized battery projects that have consumed lithium ion supplies, including those in Australia, Moss Landing, California, for PG&E, and for Green Mountain Energy in Vermont.

This means that Tesla has already carved out a dominant position in a market that is expected to grow by tenfold over the next five years. GTM Research estimated that sales of energy storage products in the U.S. will soar from $541 million in 2018 to $1 billion in 2019 and $4.6 billion by 2013.

It is developing into a global market. The U.S. only accounts for 30% of the global battery storage market, with energy poor Japan and South Korea holding major shares.

Tesla competitors include Florida-based NextEra Energy in America, E.on in Germany, and Fluence, a joint venture between Siemens and AES, also from Germany. Germany seems to be the place where green energy philosophies and top-rate engineering meet.

It’s impossible to see how much the battery business is contributing to Tesla’s overall bottom line as it does not break out earnings separately. They are subsumed within a Tesla division that once comprised Solar City, which Tesla took over in 2016. Running two businesses off a single lithium ion supply was a stroke of genius, permitting vertical integration and vast economies of scale.

However, Tesla’s solar business saw revenues rise by 56.7% to $784 million over the year-earlier period. Selling a product with exponential demand but limited supply is a good place to be in.

It is puzzling to see so much media attention paid to a company with a market capitalization of only $50 billion. Last week, the controversial firm soaked up perhaps a quarter of all financial reporting coverage.

But when you add up all of the industries that Tesla is radically disrupting, such as autos, the oil industry, the dealer local network, local power utilities, and advertising, it comes close to 25% of U.S. GDP.

If I had just taken the online payments system, auto, rocket, solar, and the battery industries a decade into the future and made $30 billion for myself along the way, I’d probably be smoking a joint, too.

And Elon is only 47. It makes you wonder what you’ve been doing with all your free time.

 

 

Send Me Another Half Dozen

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/TSLA-factory-image-2-e1536872243870.jpg 387 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-14 01:07:002018-09-24 18:05:56Some Good News from Tesla
MHFTR

September 12, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 12, 2018
Fiat Lux

THE FUTURE OF AI ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(THE NEW AI BOOK THAT INVESTORS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR),
(GOOG), (FB), (AMZN), MSFT), (BABA), (BIDU),
(TENCENT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (LRCX)

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MHFTR

September 7, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 7, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MONDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2018, ATLANTA, GA,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(SEPTEMBER 5 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(AMZN), (MU), (MSFT), (LRCX), (GOOGL), (TSLA),
(TBT), (EEM), (PIN), (VXX), (VIX), (JNK), (HYG), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-07 01:08:042018-09-07 00:58:01September 7, 2018
MHFTR

September 5 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader September 5 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!

Q: Do you think the collapse of commodity prices in the U.S. will affect the U.S. election?

A: Absolutely, it will if you count agricultural products as commodities, which they are. We have thousands of subscribers in the Midwest and many are farmers up to their eyeballs in corn, wheat, and soybeans. It won’t swing the entire farm vote to the Democratic party because a lot of farmers are simply lifetime Republicans, but it will chip away at the edges. So, instead of winning some of these states by 15 points, they may win by 5 or 3 or 1, or not at all. That’s what all of the by-elections have told us so far.

Q: What will be the first company to go to 2 trillion?

A: Amazon, for sure (AMZN). They have so many major business lines that are now growing gangbusters; I think they will be the first to double again from here. After having doubled twice within the last three years, it would really just be a continuation of the existing trend, except now we can see the business lines that will actually take Amazon to a much bigger company.

Q: Is this a good entry point for Micron Technology (MU)?

A: No, the good entry point was in the middle of August. We are at an absolute double bottom here. Wait for the tech washout to burn out before considering a re-entry. Also, you want to buy Micron the day before the trade war with China ends, since it is far and away its largest customer.

Q: Is Micron Technology a value trap?

A: Absolutely not, this is a high growth stock. A value trap is a term that typically applies to low price, low book to value, low earning or money losing companies in the hope of a turnaround.

Q: I didn’t get the Microsoft (MSFT) call spread when the alert went out — should I add it on here?

A: No, I am generally risk-averse this month; let’s wait for that 4% correction in the main market before we consider putting any kind of longs on, especially in technology stocks which have had great runs.

Q: How do you see Lam Research (LRCX)?

A: Long term it’s another double. The demand from China to build out their own semiconductor industry is exponential. Short term, it’s a victim of the China trade war. So, I would hold back for now, or take short-term profits.

Q: Is this a good entry point for Google (GOOGL)?

A: No, wait for a better sell-off. Again, it’s the main market influencing my risk aversion, not the activity of individual stocks. It also may not be a bad idea to wait for talk of a government investigation over censorship to die down.

Q: Would you buy Tesla (TSLA)?

A: No, buy the car, not the stock. There are just too many black swans out there circling around Tesla. It seems to be a disaster a week, but then every time you sell off it runs right back up again. Eventually, on a 10-year view I would be buying Tesla here as I believe they will eventually become the world’s largest car company. That is the view of the big long-term value players, like T. Rowe Price and Fidelity, who are sticking with it. But regarding short term, it’s almost untradable because of the constant titanic battle between the shorts and the longs. At 26% Tesla has the largest short interest in the market.

Q: I’m long Microsoft; is it time to buy more?

A: No, I would wait for a bit more of a sell-off unless you’re a very short-term trader.

Q: What would you do with the TBT (TBT) calls?

A: I would buy more, actually; preferably at the next revisit by the ProShares Ultra Short 20 Year Plus Treasury ETF (TBT) to $33. If we don’t get there, I would just wait.

Q: What’s your suggestion on our existing (TLT) 9/$123-$126 vertical bear put spread?

A: It expires in 12 days, so I would run it into expiration. That way the spread you bought at $2.60 will expire worth $3.00. We’re 80% cash now, so there is no opportunity cost of missing out with other positions.

Q: Do you like emerging markets (EEM)?

A: Only for the very long term; it’s too early to get in there now. (EEM) really needs a weak dollar and strong commodities to really get going, and right now we have the opposite. However, once they turn there will be a screaming “BUY” because historically emerging nations have double the growth rate of developed ones.

Q: Do you like the Invesco India ETF (PIN)?

A: Yes, I do; India is the leading emerging market ETF right now and I would stick with it. India is the next China. It has the next major infrastructure build-out to do, once they get politics, regulation, and corruption out of the way.

Q: Do you trade junk bonds (JNK), (HYG)?

A: Only at market tops and market bottoms, and we are at neither point. When the markets top out, a great short-selling opportunity will present itself. But I am hiding my research on this for now because I don’t want subscribers to sell short too early.

Q: With the (VXX), I bought the ETF outright instead of the options, what should I do here?

A: Sell for the short term. The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) has a huge contango that runs against it, which makes long-term holds a terrible idea. In this respect it is similar to oil and natural gas ETFs. Contango is when long-term futures sell at a big premium to short-term ones.

Q: How much higher for Apple (AAPL)?

A: It’s already unbelievably high, we hit $228 yesterday. Today it’s $228.73, a new all-time high. When it was at $150, my 2018 target was initially $200. Then I raised it to $220. I think it is now overbought territory, and you would be crazy to initiate a new entry here. We could be setting up for another situation where the day they bring out all their new phones in September, the stock peaks for the year and sells off shortly after.

 

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MHFTR

August 20, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 20, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or
IS THE TRADE WAR ON OR OFF?),
(AAPL), (UUP), (EEM), (NFLX), (TSLA), (GOOGL), (SOYB),
(SOME SAGE ADVICE ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION)

 

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MHFTR

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Is the Trade War on or Off?

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Is the trade war on or off? Trillions of dollars in cash flow and investment depend on the answer to the question.

Traders and investors can be forgiven for being confused. It was only a week ago that a doubling of duties on Turkish imports were threatened because of an American pastor locked up there two years ago, triggering a stock meltdown.

Then, on Wednesday night presidential economic advisor Larry Kudlow hinted that he would meet with a Chinese trade delegation, prompting a 400-point Dow melt-up. Please note that except for Apple (AAPL), technology stocks did not participate in the rally one iota.

In the meantime, Apple continued its relentless march to my $220 target for $2018, so you might think about taking some money off the table. The market capitalization now stands at a staggering $1.05 trillion, the largest in the world.

It vindicates my call that at any time the administration could suddenly declare victory in the trade war, prompting a major stock market rally, regardless of the outcome.

So what happens next. Expect the trade talks to fail, or not happen at all. Market meltdowns will be followed by melt-up, then meltdowns again. Certainly, that's what the soybean (SOYB) market believes, that new canary in the coal mine for our global trade wars. It barely moved this week.

Hey, if trading were easy it would pay the federal minimum wage rate of $7.25 an hour, so quit your complaining!

As if trade wars were the only thing to worry about these days.

There is a mass protest underway at Alphabet (GOOGL) over the company's proposal to re-enter the China market. No one wants to assist the Middle Kingdom's harsh censorship regime, and some 1,000 employees have already signed a petition to this effect.

Emerging markets (EEM) continue to get pounded by trade wars and a strong U.S. dollar (UUP), which has the effect of increasing their companies' local currency debt.

Elon Musk continues his slow motion public nervous breakdown, cutting Tesla's stock at the knees down to $305. I hope you all took my advice last week to unload the stock at $380.

Netflix (NFLX) shares are undergoing a serious pullback now that it is in between upgrade launches, and the trade wars and strong dollar eat into international subscriber growth, about 80% of the total. Don't forget to buy this dip.

With the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index stuck dead on 50, I am not inclined to reach for trades here. A reading of 50 gives you the perfect "do nothing" indicator.

As is always the case when I return from vacation my first few trades are a rude awakening. August is now showing a modest return of 0.23%. My 2018 year-to-date performance has clawed its way up to 25.03% and my nine-year return appreciated to 302.61%. The Averaged Annualized Return stands at 34.91%. The more narrowly focused Mad Hedge Technology Fund Trade Alert performance is annualizing now at an impressive 32.24%.

This coming week housing statistics will give the most important insights on the state of the economy.

On Monday, August 20, there will be nothing of note to report. It will just be another boring summer day.

On Tuesday, August 21, same thing.

On Wednesday, August 22 at 9:15 AM, we learn July Existing Home Sales. Will the rot continue? Weekly EIA Petroleum Inventory Statistics are out at 10:30 AM. The Fed Minutes from the meeting six weeks ago are out at 2:00 PM EST.

Thursday, August 23 leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 12,000 last week to 212,000. Also announced are July New Home Sales. The two-day Jackson Hole Symposium of central bankers starts in the morning.

On Friday, August 24 at 8:30 AM EST, we get July Durable Goods. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.

As for me, it is back to school week for me, so I will be making the rounds with the new teachers at two schools. I have to confess that at my age I have trouble distinguishing between the students and the teachers.

Finally, a sad farewell to Aretha Franklin, the Queen of soul, who provided me with a half century of listening pleasure. When I was young, I couldn't afford to go see her, and when I got old I didn't have the time. Isn't life lived backward?

Good luck and good trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UP, DOWN, UP, DOWN!

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-08-20 01:07:242018-08-20 01:07:24The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Is the Trade War on or Off?
MHFTR

August 15, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 15, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY BONDS CAN'T GO DOWN),
(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX), (TUR), (TSLA),
(HOW TO MAKE MORE MONEY THAN I DO),
(AMZN), (LRCX), (ABX), (AAPL), (TSLA), (NVDA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-08-15 01:08:592018-08-15 01:08:59August 15, 2018
MHFTR

How to Make More Money Than I Do

Diary, Newsletter

By now, most of you have figured out that I love calling readers every day and milking them for ideas on how to improve my service.

Often, they think I am an imposter, a telephone salesman, a machine, or an algorithm. It's only after listening for a few seconds that they recognize my voice from the biweekly strategy webinars and realize that it's the real me.

I don't do this to get renewals, because everyone renews anyway. Where else do you get a 62% annual return with no serious drawdowns?

No, I do it because the information I pick up from subscribers is golden. Some of my best Trade Alerts are inspired by reader questions.

One of my favorite Einstein quotes is that "There are no stupid questions, only stupid answers."

In fact, I have discovered that a lot of subscribers are making much more money from my service than I do.

I'll tell you how they do it.

First, let me remind readers that every Trade Alert I send out includes recommendation for a call or put option spread, a single stock, or an ETF.

The trading performance charts that we published are based on the options spread positions only.

WARNING: What worked swimmingly over the past 10 years is no guarantee that it will work next year, but I thought you'd like to know anyway.

1) Raise the Strike Prices

Move the strike prices up by a dollar. So instead of buying the Barrick Gold (ABX) September $15-$16 deep in-the-money vertical bull call spread, you pick up the $16-$17 call spread instead.

Generally, you make a profit that is 50% greater on this higher spread than with the original recommendation. But you are also taking on higher risk.

When 90% or more of our Trade Alerts are successful this has been a pretty good bet to make.

2) Buy the Call Options Only

Instead of buying the call spread, you buy the call option only in half the size.

When it works, your upside is unlimited. When it doesn't, you just write off the total value of your investment.

This is a great approach when the stocks I recommend take off like a rocket and double or more, as have Apple (AAPL), Amazon, (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), and NVIDIA (NVDA).

Option spread buyers leave a lot of money on the table with this scenario, but get lower performance volatility.

I have observed that many of my Australia readers pursue this approach, as they are fighting a 14-hour time zone disadvantage with the New York Stock Exchange. Not many civilians want to trade at 4:00 AM no matter how much it pays.

The payoff is that they earn about double what I do trading the same stocks.

3) Buy a 2X or 3X Leveraged ETF

This is moving out even further off the risk curve.

Almost every one of the 101 S&P 500 sectors have listed for them 2X and 3X bull and bear ETF's. In theory, the best-case scenario for one of these funds is that they will rise three times as fast as the underlying basket.

In theory, I said.

By the time you take out management fees, tracking error, and execution costs, and wide spreads, you are more likely to get 2.5 times the basket appreciation, if not 2X.

I normally steer investors away from 3X funds. But 401k traders, who are not allowed to deal in stock options, swear by them.

4) Trade Futures

This is a favorite of foreign exchange, precious metals, and bond traders. A futures contract can deliver up to 100 times the performance of the underlying currency, metal, or Treasury bond.

Get a good entry point, run a tight stop loss, and the potential gains can be astronomical.

Every year we get a couple of followers who earn 1,000% profits using our market timing for entry and exit point, and they always do it through the futures markets. Yes, that is a 10X return.

This is also a much higher risk, but higher return strategy. Your broker will present greater disclosure requirements and need a higher clearance level.

But potentially retiring in a year is ample bait for many professionals to go through with this.

5) Read the Research

I know a lot of you only buy this service only for our industry beating Trade Alert service.

But my decade-long experience in watching readers succeed, or fail, in their executions is that the more research they read, the more money they make.

Don't try to skim though with a minimal effort.

It's really very simple. The more work you put into this, the more profit you take out.

Understanding fully what is happening in the markets, indeed the entire global economy, will give you the confidence you need to take on bigger positions and make A LOT more money.

There is no free lunch. There is no Holy Grail.

Having said all that, good luck and good trading.

 

 

Looks Like I Got Another One

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-08-15 01:06:012018-08-15 01:06:01How to Make More Money Than I Do
MHFTR

August 14, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 14, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY BANKS HAVE PERFORMED SO BADLY THIS YEAR),
(JPM), (C), (GS), (SCHW), (WFC),
(HOW FREE ENERGY WILL POWER THE COMING ROARING TWENTIES),
(SPWR), (TSLA)

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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