“Success is a lousy teacher.” – Said Co-Founder of Microsoft Bill Gates
“Success is a lousy teacher.” – Said Co-Founder of Microsoft Bill Gates
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 5, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HUMANOIDS TO THE RESCUE OR NOT)
(TSLA), (LLM), (AI)
Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini needs to lay off the fear porn – I’m not taking the bait this time. Sorry Roubs!
Roubini is sounding the alarm bells on humanoid robots, but I think it is more of a case of fear-mongering than anything else.
After all, like most economists, Roubini isn’t a trader, and he is an academic who sits behind the scenes and goes after those juicy sound bites that the media need to publish stories.
He wasn’t taking profits in great tech trades like when I captured profits on Amazon just the other day.
His idea goes like this…
He thinks the big breakthrough right now is the evolution of humanoid robots that essentially follow individual workers on the factory floor, on a construction site, and even a chef in a restaurant, or a housekeeper. It's terrifying, but it's happening in the next literally year or two.
For this level of transformation in one year, I believe the percentage chance of this coming to fruition is less than 2%.
My understanding of the humanoids is that the software will take 10 years to figure out the nuances.
Roubini — known as Dr. Doom for his bleak economic forecasts — said human jobs would be lost to humanoids.
Instead, an LLM (large language model) learns about everything in the world, the entire internet follows your job or my job or anybody else's job in a few months, then learns everything that a construction worker, factory worker, or any other service worker can do, and then can replace them. And I think that it's going to be a revolution — it's going to affect blue-collar jobs like we've never, ever seen before.
The humanoid robot market could reach $7 trillion by 2050, Citi research recently found. Those robots — such as Tesla's (TSLA) Optimus — may be able to do everything from cleaning your home to folding your laundry. The robots could create job loss as routine tasks get automated.
There is a higher likelihood that this humanoid from Tesla will be used as a staging to convince investors to buy more tech stocks.
Tech companies have a huge problem on their hands, and there hasn’t been a lot of great brain activity to find a real solution.
Venture capitalists have been lamenting the lack of real innovation in tech products like Mark Andreessen and Peter Thiel.
The humanoid is here to get investors to buy more tech stocks in companies that aren’t innovating.
Tech companies are cutting staff to beat earnings, and that isn’t a sign of top-notch growth.
Investors need to separate the fluff from reality.
The reality is that big tech companies still make enormous amounts of profit but have failed miserably in finding something new.
Apple CEO Tim Cook is still figuring out what to do next after selling the iPhone to Chinese people.
The humanoid operating on AI software might give tech stocks an extra 6-month cushion before investors pull the rug.
Enjoy the bull market while it lasts. I executed and profited from a bullish trade in Nvidia just recently, which is part of the AI story.
AI stocks will go higher and humanoid stocks will too – not because they will make money, but because investors still buy the hype.
“I have more concerns about potential risks and vulnerabilities than most people.” – Said Nouriel Roubini
“Creativity is just connecting things.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs
“When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds aren’t in your favor.” – Said Tesla Founder Elon Musk
“If you're not stubborn, you'll give up on experiments too soon.” – Said Founder of Amazon Jeff Bezos
“Patience is a virtue, and I'm learning patience.” – Said CEO of Tesla Elon Musk
“Love your Enemies, for they tell you your faults.” – Said Benjamin Franklin
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 12, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE FIGHT FOR AI SUPREMACY)
($COMPQ), (AMZN)
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