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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Trade Alert Drought Explained

Tech Letter

Why has there been a dearth of Mad Hedge Tech trade alerts to start the year?

Let me explain.

Love it or hate it – earnings' season is about to kick off.

And now, this is the part where it starts to get ugly with consensus of a 2% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings.

Banks are expected to be a rare bright spot and JPMorgan (JPM) delivered us stable results as one of the first to report.

The unfortunate part of the equation is that a lot has to go right for tech shares to go unimpeded for the rest of the year.

What we have seen in the first 2 weeks of the year is a FOMO (fear-of-missing-out) environment in which valuations have lurched forward to 20 times forward earnings.

Tech is overwhelmingly carrying the load and I have banged on the drums about this thread advising readers to be acutely aware of a heavy positive bias towards the FANGs in 2020.

Well, that is already panning out in the first two weeks.

Examples are widespread with Facebook (FB) up over 8% and Apple (AAPL) already topping 6% to start the year.

It would be farfetched to believe that the tech sector can keep pilfering itself higher in the face of negative earnings growth.

However, behind the scenes, relations between China and America are improving, the threat of war with Iran is subsiding, and the Fed continues strong support tempering down risk to tech shares.  

The situation we find ourselves in is that of an expensive tech sector that will again guide down on upcoming earnings’ reports telegraphing softness moving into the middle part of the year.

The ensuing post-earnings sell-off in specific software stocks will offer optimal short-term entry points.

The current risk-reward of chasing FANGs at these levels is unfavorable.

Another glaring example of the FANG outperformance is Alphabet who rose 26% last year.

They are on the brink of joining the $1 trillion club that Apple and Microsoft (MSFT) have joined.

Its market value currently sits idling at $985 billion and its surge towards the vaunted trillion-dollar mark is more of a case of when than if.

Alphabet (GOOGL), more or less, still expands at the same rate of low-20% annually that it did 10 years ago.

Sales have ballooned to $160 billion annually and they sit at the forefront of every cutting-edge sub-sector in technology from artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and augmented reality.

The engine that drives Google is still its core advertising business and strategic premium acquisitions like YouTube and penetration into other fast-growing areas such as cloud computing.

It has rounded out into a broad-based revenue accumulator.

Apple was the first public company to surpass a $1 trillion market cap and ended the year up 86% in 2019, and it has only gone up since then currently checking in at a $1.36 trillion market cap.

Microsoft followed Apple, hitting the $1 trillion mark during the first half of 2019, and it is now worth $1.23 trillion.

Amazon fell back after surging past the $1 trillion mark but inevitably will achieve it on the next heave up.

Amazon shares have been quickly heating up since its capitulation from $2,000 in July 2019 and round out the group of overperforming tech behemoths.

Although the rush into big-cap tech stocks in the first two weeks has been a bullish signal, it still doesn’t marry up with the lack of earnings growth in the overall tech sector.

Companies beating meager expectations will experience strong share appreciation although not at the pace of last year and will still serve investors pockets of overperformance. 

We will find our spots to trade shortly, but better to keep our gunpowder dry at the moment. 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/earnings-vs-growth.png 522 972 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-15 11:02:512020-05-11 13:08:08The Trade Alert Drought Explained
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 15, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Our industry does not respect tradition – it only respects innovation.” – Said CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/satya-nadela.png 343 352 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-15 11:00:052020-01-15 11:01:05January 15, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 13, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 13, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE DEATH OF THE GIG ECONOMY)
(GRUB), (OYO), (LYFT), (UBER), (RAPPI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-13 08:04:102020-01-13 08:46:35January 13, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Death of the Gig Economy

Tech Letter

The demise of the gig economy is upon us.

That is the latest takeaway from a slew of negative news overflowing the news wires lately.

As many of you know, I hate this niche of tech with a passion, and it has been discovered as nothing more than a marginal fly-by-night sub-sector passing off the cost of employees and their wages to the investor.

They also contribute no meaningful technology that moves the needle.

When the hammer fell on Adam Neumann’s WeWork, the hammer fell equally as hard on the gig economy business model that brought public markets the likes of Uber and Lyft.

The path to venture capitalist’s cashing in abruptly closed off was the end development to all this mayhem.

So I was not surprised when online food deliverer Grubhub (GRUB) had a dead cat bounce after rumors of them looking for a sale to their badly run company.

Then last Friday was the day the chickens came home to roost with Grubhub shares cratering over 8%.

If there is a sale, at what heavily discounted price will it go for?

We could see a marked down shell of its former self.

Grubhub naturally came out and rejected the notion that they are about to be sold off.

Where there is smoke – there is fire.

They did, however, admit they are in the process of “consulting” about certain acquisitions which could mean purchasing inorganic growth to juice up their numbers ahead of a sale.

There are four market leaders who control roughly 80% of the food delivery service business.

But the food war is far from over as competitors undercut each other time after time.

Competition in the food delivery market is driving down the unit economics of online food delivery to a nadir at a time when they can least afford it.

The other three involved are Uber Eats division of Uber (UBER) as well as Postmates and DoorDash.

Grubhub mentioned that there will likely be opportunities to acquire market share, but at what cost?

Acquiring inorganic revenue is at peak cost in 2020.

Cost per unit matters more now than any other time in the past 10 years boding ill for Grubhub and its competition.

And until they adequately address the unit economics in detail, readers must assume that Grubhub is on a suicide mission and you won’t know how close they are to the end until there is a dramatic announcement describing it.

The big takeaway here is that conditions are ripe for consolidation in the online delivery business.

As we go further out on the risk curve, private unicorns are in dire straits too.

Taking a barometer of this subsector allows investors to digest the level of risk premium in the overall markets that can be applied to safer parts of the tech ecosphere through extrapolation techniques.

Venture capitalist Masayoshi Son is infamous for overpaying a slew of tech growth firms and in 2020, so far, it has not been kind to him.

Oyo allows customers to book hotel rooms in more than 80 countries through its app.

It even converts struggling local hotels into Oyo franchises, puts up some money to remodel the interior, and takes commission on every booking.

The startup is dumping 5% of its staff in China and another 12% of employees in India, as part of a reorganization.

Oyo is the third company in SoftBank's portfolio to shed jobs in a week, following the layoffs at robotic pizza startup Zume and car rental company Getaround.

Oyo has sucked in more than $3 billion in capital and the last insane tranche of investment values the company at more than $10 billion.

SoftBank has been throwing money at the company since 2015.

The firm is otherwise known as the "SoftBank's jewel in India" for being one of the country's most valuable private companies.

However, there has been a recent barrage of sub-optimal reports suggesting they have accelerated sales by underhanded business practices.

A peek into the firm showed explicit evidence that Oyo rented thousands of rooms at unlicensed hotels and guesthouses then allowing police and other officials use the service for free to avoid trouble with the authorities.

The pain for Softbank doesn’t just stop at Oyo, Rappi has been dragged down as well.

The Latin American delivery startup is laying off 6% of its workforce, less than a year after Japan’s SoftBank Group pumped in nearly $1 billion in the company.

Softbank is putting pressure on local management to trim the fat off their models and forcing them to become profitable now.

Rappi has expanded to nine countries since its founding in 2015.

It plans to be the swiss army knife of online deliveries by getting into groceries, restaurant meals, medication, furniture, and has even foolishly branched out into scooter rental, travel, and basic banking services.

Softbank plans to pour another $4 billion into South American startups but one must beg to ask, are they throwing good money on top of bad money?

Certainly seems so.

When asked how soon Rappi would turn in a profit, co-founder Sebastian Mejia was adamant that his sole priority was to grow fast, and that investors were on board with the plan.

This is code name for NEVER!

Softbank and its vision fund are set for more death by a thousand cuts in 2020, and being in the wrong place at the wrong time aggravates the mess they find themselves in.

Short all companies reliant on gig economy workers in the public markets and prepare for a gloomy IPO pipeline that will last through the end of 2020.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/oyo-jan13-e1578921112729.png 250 450 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-13 08:02:552020-05-11 13:07:57The Death of the Gig Economy
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 13, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“One way to understand human progress is to look at how technology has made products and services - once reserved for the elite - progressively more accessible and affordable.” – Said CEO of PayPal Dan Schulman

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/dan-schulman.png 293 333 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-13 08:00:092020-01-13 08:47:06January 13, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 10, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 10, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FINTECH IS GOING INTO OVERDRIVE)
(PYPL), (SQ), (MA), (V)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-10 04:04:232020-01-09 16:24:43January 10, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Fintech is Going Into Overdrive

Tech Letter

Last year was the year of Fintech and 2020 is the year when this industry goes into overdrive.

Let’s take a look at one of my top choices, PayPal (PYPL).

Millennials are the primary customer demographics to the main platform, but the attractiveness of peer-to-peer payment system Venmo is gaining momentum.

PayPal should be on a short list of fintech stocks for investors and there is certainly more room to run for the share price.

Last quarter’s numbers of 9.8 million net new actives mean that PayPal now has 295 million active accounts across all platforms.

Engagement continues to be a bright spot growing by 9% to almost 40 transactions per active account.

Mobile is a major contributor to success with 172 million consumers and 13.8 million merchants.

Venmo processed more than $27 billion in volume for the quarter, growing 64%.

They are doing $300 million in payments per day and an annual run rate that now exceeds $100 billion.

The Venmo team recently inked a deal with Synchrony to provide a Venmo credit card.

Credit products continue to be another gateway to more success with new consumer installment plans in the United States and Germany which allow PayPal customers to pay with streamlined monthly payments.

This capability is already leading to incremental sales and led to signing a long-term strategic partnership agreement with Citi Australia to develop consumer credit products for PayPal's customers in Australia.

Additional relationships were further expanded with Walmart launching PayPal Checkout as the sole payment instrument for its online grocery business in Mexico.

In Japan, PayPal is one of the official partners for the Japanese government's plan to promote cashless payments throughout the country.

PayPal now offers account linking through mobile devices with Capital One and PNC Bank in the United States.

If you thought their international strategy stopped there, there are other irons in the fire.

PayPal became the first non-Chinese payments company to be licensed to provide online payment services in China.

They announced in September that the People's Bank of China has approved a 70% equity interest in GoPay, a license provider of online payment services.

China is a tricky revenue proposition and it’s not guaranteed to flourish on the mainland, but this shows the pro-active way that PayPal seeks to expand its total addressable market and long-term growth prospects.

The license enables PayPal to expand upon relationships with existing partners like China Union Pay and AliExpress and forge fresh partnerships with China's financial institutions and technology platforms.

PayPal’s success has so far depended on innovation and acquisitions - I fully expect this trend to continue in 2020.

PayPal announced it was buying shopping and rewards platform Honey Science Corporation for $4 billion.

This year is the beginning of another compelling one-year bull case aided in part by higher expectations from those diverse set of partnerships, such as with MercadoLibre Inc. and Uber Technologies Inc., along with PayPal’s pricing, Honey online coupon transaction, and Venmo monetization.

I anticipate further sustained overperformance in margin expansion as well.

I expect an overall payments industry-wide volume growth of 11% in 2020 and PayPal will grow into its position in a still healthy broader economy.

Payment sector operating metrics, from credit card volume growth, to enterprise IT budget growth, to U.S. employment growth, are robust supporting the bull case for PayPal in 2020.

Aside from PayPal, my alternative favorites in the payments space that could see anywhere from 7%-20% share appreciation in 2020 are Square (SQ), Mastercard Inc. (MA), and Visa Inc. (V)

It is likely that 2020 will signal a new decade of super growth for the digital payments market.

And I expect PayPal to increase its solid footprint in web, in mobile app platforms, and in retail stores globally through organic growth, acquisitions, and partnerships.

PayPal’s profitable business model and pro-active management will help the share price reach new highs.

However, not only for fintech stocks, but the overall market is ripe for some profit-taking in the short-term because of the recent melt-up.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-10 04:02:442020-05-11 13:07:47Fintech is Going Into Overdrive
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 10, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“One of the only ways to get out of a tight box is to invent your way out.” – Said Founder and CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/jeff-bezos.png 372 433 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-10 04:00:072020-01-09 16:22:41January 10, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 8, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 8, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE TOP IS NOT IN FOR TECH STOCKS))
(AAPL), (FB), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-08 07:34:222020-01-08 09:11:00January 8, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Top Is Not In For Tech Stocks

Tech Letter

Tech shares are pricey, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get more expensive.

Strength often begets strength.

Let’s take for instance Apple (AAPL) – it delivered investors 86% in 2019 and that was their best performance in the past 10 years.

This was on the heels of a tumultuous 2018 where Apple sank 6%.

Many of the best of brightest of the tech industry beat the S&P last year, which itself gained 29%.

And as Apple leapfrogged into the software as a service business, they find themselves shunning China hardware revenue that got themselves into the 2018 mess.

Apple is betting that the confines of stateside consumer culture will offer greener pastures.

Overall, the market is pricing in a lukewarm 2020 for tech earnings boding well for the elite tech stocks that celebrated touchdown after touchdown in 2019.

Surpassing low expectations could be another rewind back to Q4 2019 which was a time that offered tech shares a platform to surge to all-time highs.

The worrying development for 2020 is that poorer-rated tech corporations won’t have the same access to cheap debt as they did in 2018 or even 2019.

The chapter of loose credit is about to close stymying loss-making tech companies who thought they could use subsidies to achieve success.

The prices of CCC-rated European bonds have declined immensely in the past year showing investors' lack of appetite for the riskier part of the corporate debt market.

Venture capitalists aren’t going to foot the bill for the next big thing in Silicon Valley at this point in the economic cycle unless the unit economics are too good to be true. 

The story of 2020 will be the intensification between the haves and have nots in tech.

This is the case of the market putting a premium on time-honored tech brands and bulletproof balance sheets that they have cultivated.

On a broader level, the Fed who has presided over a $600 billion expansion in their balance sheet in the last four months offers yet another tailwind to tech shares in the short-term.

The Fed’s decision in the last few months to re-start large-scale asset purchases will help keep a foot under tech shares in early 2020 and responds like a de facto QE.

If you thought 2019 was a bad year for Uber and Lyft, then wait until this year plays itself out.

The gig economy stocks are in the direct firing line with nowhere to run and other non-sensical profit models will find it costly to search for debt alternatives in which to service their visions.

If the tech sector does become a war of attrition between the FANGs staving off one another by acquiring inorganic growth, then marginal tech players will get squeezed because they don’t have the capital bazookas to compete with the likes of Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOGL).

This is the year that we could see a slew of fringe tech companies go bust as debt markets sour on false narratives of future profits and equity markets turn against them.

The feast versus famine theme is also aligned with 5G, with many of the same cast of characters such as Apple, Alphabet posed to usurp revenue when this new technology finally becomes pervasive in consumer culture.  

The Apple refresh cycle will dust off its playbook for another blockbuster rollout later this year when Apple debuts its much-awaited 5G phone.

Much of the share appreciate in Apple of late can be attributed to the anticipation of the new iPhone and the fresh infusion of revenue that branches off from it.

The applications that result from the new 5G Apple phone is seen as a luscious force multiplier to many 3rd party companies as well.

Chip stocks will be counted on as the ones lifting the tech foundations and just looking at shares in China, demonstrations of frothiness are running wild throughout their markets.

The Chinese government, to counteract the trade war, has been on a mission to flood its tech sector with unlimited capital as a catchup mechanism to overcome its inferior domestic chip industry.

Will Semiconductor, a supplier of integrated circuit products for telecommunications and electronics for cars, delivered a 390% performance in 2019 ranking it as the best performer in the Chinese stock market.

Luxshare Precision Industry and GoerTek, suppliers of consumer electronics products supplying Apple, and GigaDevice Semiconductor, producing flash chips, weren’t too shabby either each eclipsing at least 193% last year.

Even though 5G construction isn’t fully operational, I can attest that revenue creation for the companies involved are in full swing.

Investors must narrow their pickings to the biggest and financially resilient; this is not the time to expose oneself to the ugly trepidations of the mood-sensitive tech market.

For investors who can balance the delicate relationship of risk and surgical maneuvering, this year will end positive.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/tech-valuation.png 708 972 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-01-08 07:32:202020-05-11 13:07:40The Top Is Not In For Tech Stocks
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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