• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Never Confuse a Great Service with a Great Stock

Tech Letter

Customers like to call me and tell me how cheap Spotify is.

Well, it’s cheap for more than one reason.

Even though Spotify (SPOT) dominates the music streaming space just like Netflix (NFLX) dominates the video streaming space, that does not mean investors should go out and buy the stock by the handful.

The numbers are quite impressive when you consider that Spotify boasts 100 million paying music subscribers.

In the iOS world, Apple (APPL) has 60 million music subscribers while Google (GOOGL) has only 15 million music subscribers.

Why do I mention Google?

They aren’t in the online streaming business, or are they?

Google has signaled its intent that they won’t just allow Spotify and Apple to turn the online streaming industry into a duopoly.

They are the third horse in the race.

Recently, Google announced that its YouTube Music app would now come preinstalled on all new Android devices.

Naturally, absorption rates will increase dramatically, and this app could become quite sticky.

Apple has a moat around its castle because of the iOS system but Spotify has no defenses against such attack.

Spotify is a slave to the Android platform to reach customers which is dominated by Google by not only their software but also their hardware now.

Spotify won a recent deal to preinstall its music app on Samsung (SSNLF) devices, but this won’t be the case for most devices.

Google has a two-way money-making strategy for YouTube Music service through both advertising and subscription sales.

Accessibility comes with ads and to remove ads, YouTube Music charges $9.99 per month.

Consumers spent $7.0 billion on music streaming subscriptions in 2018 and diversifying away from Google Search is something that CEO Sundar Pichai is hellbent on.

Google has lept into selling cloud computing services and hardware products, including speakers, in search of non-advertising revenue.

In reaction, Spotify cannot just lay vulnerable like a sitting duck, and have announced tests for a price increase for family plan subscribers in Scandinavia.

The family plan in Sweden currently costs about 149 Swedish krona ($15.45) per month, similar to the pricing in the United States and the rest of Europe and it will be interesting to see if they can stomach a 13% increase.

I bet there will be a revolt as Scandinavians know they can just hook up to YouTube with an ad-less browser to listen to whatever they want for free.

Looking to lucrative markets to squeeze more juice out of a lemon would have a higher chance of succeeding if a level up in service is also offered.

The desperation is palpable as Spotify’s Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) falls off a cliff and is the reinforcement I need to feel that this business is impossible to make money in.

Just the unforgivable headwind that licensing music eats up is enough pain with allocating 75 cents on every $1 of revenue.

The company has been in a precarious position right out of the gates.

Even publishers have gripes against Spotify's declining ARPU, since a large part of their contracts include revenue-sharing agreements with the music streamer.

Ultimately, Spotify is a service that cannot differentiate itself through exclusive original series and films which is inherent to survival.

Their attempts to allow individual singers to upload backfired because only their users are interested in hearing the 0.1% of popular music deemed popular from mainstream culture.

Spotify, Apple Music, and Google will possess more or less the same library of music that most people want to listen to.

Then it comes down to what platform is more convenient than the other.

Apple and Google have strong financial backing giving them higher pain thresholds if they lose money.

Until Spotify can find a magical way to make their product unique, they are on the path to a death by thousand cuts even if they do have a great product.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/spotify.png 577 972 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-07 03:02:262020-05-11 13:25:56Never Confuse a Great Service with a Great Stock
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 7, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Spotify has paid more than two billion dollars to labels, publishers and collecting societies for distribution to songwriters and recording artists.” – Said CEO of Spotify Daniel Ek

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/daniel-ek.png 358 327 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-07 03:00:222019-10-07 02:56:19October 7, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 4, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 4, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE YOUR JOB)
(SPECIAL AUTOMATION ISSUE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-04 06:04:482019-10-04 06:29:19October 4, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why You are About to Lose Your Job

Tech Letter

The hammer has been brought down on the financial industry.

Robots are here and here to stay - automation is taking place at a breakneck speed displacing worker from all industries.

In a recent report by Wells Fargo, the U.S. financial industry will supposedly fire 200,000 workers in the next decade because of the advancements of automating processes.

Yes, humans are going obsolete and banking will effectively become algorithms working for a handful of executives and engineers controlling the algorithms.

The catalyst in this equation is the direct capital of $150 billion annually that banks spend on technological development in-house which is higher than any other industry.

Private businesses aren’t charities and banks are doing this all in the name of lower cost, shedding employee wage packets, and boosting efficiency rates.

We forget to realize that employee compensation absorbs up to 50% of bank’s expenses.

The 200,000 job trimmings would result in 10% of the U.S. bank jobs axed for the hyped-up “golden age of banking” that should deliver extraordinary savings and extra services to the customer.

I would argue that cost savings due to technological enhancements have already had an outsized surge in available services to the client as mobile and online banking has increased functionality allowing U.S. customers to maintain tight internet control over their bank account from anywhere that has an internet connection.

The most gutted part of banking jobs will be in the call centers because they will be substituted by chatbots.

A few years ago, chatbots were awful, even spewing out arbitrary profanity, but they have slowly crawled up in performance metrics to the point where some customers do not even know they are communicating with an artificial engineered algorithm.

The wholesale adoption of automating the back-office staff isn’t the end of it, the front office will experience a 30% drop in numbers sullying the predated ideology that front office staff is irreplaceable heavy hitters.

As it is, front-office staff is in the midst of getting purged with 2018 representing a fifth year of decline.

Front-office traders are being replaced by software engineers as banks follow the wider trend of every company migrating into a tech company.

Efficiencies do not stop there; the adoption of artificial intelligence will lower mortgage processing costs by 20% and the accumulation of hordes of data will advance the marketing effort into a smart, hybrid cloud-based and hyper-targeted strategy.

You would think that less workers mean higher pay for the employees - you thought wrong.

Historically, a strong labor market and low unemployment boosts wage growth, but national income going to workers has dipped from about 63% in 2000 to 56% in 2018.

Causes stem from the deceleration in union membership and outsourcing has snatched away bargaining power amongst workers on top of the mass automation being implemented.

I was recently in Budapest, Hungary and on a main thoroughfare, a J.P. Morgan and Blackrock office stood a stone’s throw away from each other employing an army of local English proficient Hungarians for 30% of the cost of American bankers.  

Banks simply possess wider optionality to outsource to an emerging nation or to automate hard-to-fill positions now.

In this game of cat and mouse, companies can easily rebuff workers' attempts to ask for salary raises and if they threaten to walk off the job, a robot can just pick up the slack.

The last two human bank hiring waves are a distant memory.

The most recent spike came in the 7 years after the dot com crash until the sub-prime crisis of 2008 adding around half a million jobs on top of the 1.5 million that existed then.

The longest and most dramatic rise in human bankers was from 1935 to 1985, a 50-year boom that delivered over 1.2 million bankers to the U.S. workforce.

Recomposing banks through automation is crucial to surviving as fintech companies are chomping at the bit and even tech companies like Amazon and Apple have started tinkering with new financial products.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/US-labor.png 733 974 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-04 06:02:212020-05-11 13:25:50Why You are About to Lose Your Job
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 4, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I don't want to have a major lawsuit against our own government... But look, at the end of the day, if someone's going to try to threaten something that existential, you go to the mat and you fight.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/zuckerberg.png 343 460 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-04 06:00:142019-10-04 06:28:49October 4, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 2, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 2, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(IT’S TIMES UP FOR GRUBHUB)
(GRUB), (UBER)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-02 07:04:542019-10-02 07:03:55October 2, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

It's Time's Up for GrubHub

Tech Letter

The jury is out, and heads could roll.

That is what the tech market has been telling us and that is why I am slapping a conviction sell rating on the struggling online food delivery company GrubHub (GRUB).

The gig economy has been found out and the industry is about to have their free lunch taken away.

Many tech companies handling cheap labor by employing key workers as independent contractors are about to lose their shirt.  

Considering that GrubHub cannot make the unit economics work in their favor when times are good, what do you think will happen if they have to start paying overtime, healthcare, and bonuses to full-time drivers?

Unfortunately for GrubHub, you cannot just strip out the driver in the business model, someone needs to get the hot tacos from point A to point B and back.

Along with higher labor costs, delivery fees are on the verge of cratering because of elevated competition.

GrubHub doesn’t have a monopoly in this industry and restaurants continue to complain that the likes of Postmates, DoorDash, GrubHub and Uber (UBER) Eats rip them off leaving the restaurants with their necks just above water.

GrubHub is so pitiful that they have had to resort to nefarious tactics condemning a failing business model.

Investors should aggressively short the stock or avoid it at all costs.

What type of tricks has GrubHub been up to?

If you hadn’t heard already, Senator Chuck Schumer was in contact with the CEO of GrubHub Matt Maloney over fraudulent fees the food-delivery giant has been charging restaurants nationwide and demands full refunds for cheated customers.

GrubHub was charging restaurants fees for phone calls that didn’t result in food orders and the company admitted wrongdoing.

The company responded by offering only 60 days’ worth of refunds even though this dark practice had taken place for years.

The exploitation took place because of in-house algorithms that calculate fees, which restaurants say can range between $5 and $9 for a single phone call.

GrubHub recently refunded one New York City restaurant vendor over $10,000 for the fraud, covering fees going back to 2014.

GrubHub agreed to extend the refund to 120 days of ill-gotten fees, but many regulators have said this is still not enough.

Then if you didn’t think that was bad, GrubHub had its hand in anti-competitive tactics that sum up the plight of the company.

GrubHub has been creating fake websites, impersonating third party restaurants by undercutting them to take control over their own web sites then taking a larger cut of commissions. 

The company says that the fake websites are “a service” for clients, but when the cybersquatting has been to the detriment to the restaurant, using this point of leverage to swindle restaurants out of more fees and sometimes charging them more than 400% of the actual cost.

This insane move has strained relations and murdered trust between GrubHub and outside vendors while making it extraordinarily difficult to take back control over their website.

As you would expect, GrubHub is monetarily incentivized to control the thoroughfare.

A GrubHub spokesman commented saying there would be “no changing of our algorithm” but from how I see it, the writing is on the wall, the equity in the company is in a vicious spiral downward.

It’s hard to make money in restaurants but GrubHub is overreaching big time.

Invest in this company at your peril and avoid all online food delivery platforms, they are simply ghastly investments.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-02 07:02:242020-05-11 13:25:44It's Time's Up for GrubHub
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 2, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.” – Said Artist Pablo Picasso

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/picasso.png 389 343 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-02 07:00:462019-10-02 07:03:32October 2, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 30, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 30, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(COMMISSION-FREE TRADING IS HERE)
(IBKR), (ETFC), (SCHW), (AMTD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-09-30 01:04:392019-09-30 04:05:51September 30, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Commission-Free Trading is Here

Tech Letter

It’s been a long time coming since I first started trading 50 years ago and was charged 25 cents a share to place an order.

The race to zero is over in internet discount brokering world as Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) announced IBKR Lite, a new offering that will provide commission-free, unlimited trades on US exchange-listed stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

It was just a matter of time before one of the big internet brokerages started to offer zero commissions and this move will force the likes of Charles Schwab (SCHW), E-trade (ETFC), TD Ameritrade (AMTD) to follow suit in order to stay competitive.

I’ve written numerous times that this was going to happen and Robinhood, the millennial broker of choice, was the trendsetter coming out the gates with zero commissions and forcing the traditional broker’s hand.

The future is now and welcome to the funeral of trading commissions.

IBKR Lite is for traders seeking a simple, cost-free way to trade US exchange-listed stocks and ETFs and will complement Interactive Brokers’ existing services, which will be rebranded as IBKR Pro. IBKR Lite will be available in October.

I am not surprised that it is Interactive Brokers that is first to roll out a no-commission product.

They are, by far and away, the king of big volume trading and their commissions weren’t that high in the first place.

The customer they deal with is not like the Schwab’s or Fidelity’s who hardly generate large volumes.

Interactive Brokers is able to provide superior pricing because they specialize in data and automating.

This will enable the firms to offer no account minimums and means it will be free to maintain an account for IBKR Lite for professional and retail investors.

What will happen is that Interactive Brokers will sell off your data to analytic companies who know how to scrape the value out of these numbers.

Investors can choose between using IBKR Lite and IBKR Pro and switch between the two levels of service up to three times and then once per quarter.

The broker will re-route the orders of IBKR Lite clients to market makers in exchange for receiving payment for order flow.

Clients that prefer IBKR Pro will continue to receive the best prices generated from a sophisticated algorithm.

So, it becomes a backdoor revenue-generating function like Facebook who resells personal data to third-party analytics companies and in turn allow users to use their platform.

Order flow is inherently valuable for many high-frequency traders (HFT).

But I would say offering trade execution is an actual service where Facebook doesn’t offer anything of note.

A platform to “share” your personal information is not an actual product in my world no matter how you tweak the verbiage.

Either way, the price to the trader is now zero and anyone who trades large volumes is incentivized to go sign up with Interactive Brokers.

This industry has been getting away with highway robbery for years by not only selling order flow but also charging $4.95 or more to trade stocks and ETFs on top of the order flow revenue.

Once the best of the rest see trading volume evaporating as order flow migrates to IBKR, what other options do they have?

I predict that not every broker will be able to execute in this new model and consolidation will be ripe in the future as the weak perish.

As long as these other broker’s stick with the $4.95 per trade of yore, I hate to do it, but slapping on a sell rating is justified.

Welcome to the brave new world of discount stockbroking.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-09-30 01:02:422020-05-11 13:30:57Commission-Free Trading is Here
Page 229 of 314«‹227228229230231›»

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
Scroll to top