“We are the first species capable of self-annihilation.” – Said CEO of Tesla Elon Musk
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 14, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY UBER BOMBED)
(LYFT), (UBER)
I told you to stay away from the Uber IPO!
The technology industry is just one piece of the pie and is now being utterly eclipsed by geopolitics left, right, and center.
At times like this, fundamentals and growth rates go out the window.
It’s a shame because growth rates for the best of breed in technology are still nothing short of spectacular.
The elevated risk here is that frontier companies such as Uber (UBER) become marginalized and their narrative starts to turn into a version of technology that is too expensive and unable to pin down expenses.
The easy money in tech is no more as we are barreling towards a global slowdown with China and America doing their best to move forward the global recession into the beginning of 2020.
So when Uber prints $5.2 billion in losses from the prior quarter which is a sequential increase of 30%, the vicious sell off in shares epitomizes the souring of sentiment that is pervading through the equity landscape.
The Uber’s earnings call was summed up when CEO of Uber Dara Khosrowshahi chimed in saying, “No doubt in my mind that the business will eventually be a break even and profitable business.”
These vague statements that offends time-sensitive hawks is a recipe for disaster in August 2019.
The purse strings of tech are not nearly as loose as they once were even 6 months ago.
Investors want profit making enterprises mixed with accelerating revenue growth – put your money where your mouth is type of ventures.
This has reduced the appealing side of tech down to outperforming software companies and even they are battling in the trenches as the wave of geopolitical risk-off sentiment crushes shares.
I would sell every Uber dead cat bounce because there is no way that Uber shares will surpass its all-time high of $46.38 this year.
The surge in bond prices show that risk appetite has dried up and Uber is unfortunately at the opposite end of the risk appetite spectrum.
I would also put its brother in arms Lyft (LYFT) in the same boat.
Lyft loses less money but are a speculative bet to “eventually” make money, and that is exactly what people don’t want to hear right now.
It will be a slippery slope for any tech company further out on the risk curve to invest in a business model that doesn’t turn a profit.
As it stands, Uber and Lyft were lucky to go public when they did, barely getting the IPOs over the line.
If they waited a few more months, they would have had to postpone it.
Expect meager M&A movement moving forward as the global slowdown will test the business models of every tech company and that means the weakest will need to restructure, go under, or even sell themselves at garage sale prices.
It is time to hunker down in tech shares and not bet the ranch.
The positions I have are short-dated deep in the money call spreads in software stocks that are bets that shares won’t go lower in a straight line.
I have fused that with positions in semiconductor stocks from the short side as a tech global slowdown means less demand in consumer electronics which hoover up semiconductor chips.
“Our industry does not respect tradition – it only respects innovation.” – Said CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 12, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(UNSTOPPABLE ROKU)
(ROKU)
Roku has been unleashed.
To be honest, I was worried when it dipped all the way down to $25 last year because it was a stock that was prime for liftoff.
Liftoff has happened but a little later than I first surmised.
Roku had a blowout quarter crushing estimates with expanding their pie 59% year-over-year to $250 million scorching consensus estimates of $224 million.
The outperformance doesn’t stop there with the company rapidly adding users to 30.5 million active users during the quarter, up 39% year-over-year.
The monetization side showed the same outperformance with average revenue per user (ARPU) up to $21.06, up $2.00 year-over-year.
For all the doubters out there, who dismissed the potential of Roku because they weren’t part of an Amazon, Google, Facebook, or Apple group, then you were wrong.
What we have seen in the past year is the potential transforming in real-time into high octane outperformance.
The x-factor that put the company’s business model over the edge was the “onslaught” of new streaming assets coming online this year and in 2020 from Disney, NBCUniversal, and HBO.
Recent surveys suggest that Amazon’s Fire TVs haven’t been able to keep up with Roku.
And as Disney and NBC roll out gleaming new streaming assets, Roku will be able to do what is does best – sell digital ads.
Roku being independent doesn’t care who streams what because selling ads can be sold on any streaming program.
This makes me believe that Roku is in a better position not being a Fang because of a lack of conflict of interest.
For example, Google and Amazon have skirmished about different crossover partnerships such as YouTube on the Amazon Kindle and so on.
They plainly don’t want to help each other
Part of the DNA of these big tech companies is bringing each other down.
In my mind, Roku has definitely benefited from the first-mover advantage and have perfected selling digital ads over over-the-top (OTT) boxes.
It just so happens that Roku has prepared itself to extract maximum profits from the intersection of integrating online streaming assets and the consumer quitting analog cable.
The timing couldn’t have been better if they tried.
In its infancy, Roku’s revenue was reliant on selling the physical hardware, but that revenue has trailed off at the perfect time because of the explosion of digital ad growth in the industry boosting its other business.
Perhaps even more impressive is the loss of 8 cents last quarter when the company was expected to lose 22 cents.
This signals to investors that profitability is just around the corner for Roku and after years of burning cash, they are finally ready to turn the page and start a new chapter in the history of Roku.
Roku bottomed out at $25 and is now trading over $125, an extraordinary feat and one of the stories of the tech industry in 2019.
I wouldn’t chase the stock here, but I will say the momentum is palpable and Roku will end the year higher than where it is now.
It’s a great stock with an even more compelling story and about to harvest and monetize the new streaming assets that are coming through the pipeline.
“I believe this artificial intelligence is going to be our partner. If we misuse it, it will be a risk. If we use it right, it can be our partner.” – Said CEO of Softbank Masayoshi Son
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 9, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HIGH-RISK LYFT)
(LYFT), (UBER)
Lyft (LYFT) has the wind at its back but that doesn’t mean you should bet the ranch on it.
In Silicon Valley, “peak losses” are two words that can deliver a great earnings report.
That is where we are at with tech’s risk tolerance.
It’s no surprise some of these outfits burn money like no other, Lyft rejigged guidance from EBITDA losses of $1.15 billion to $1.175 billion down to $850 million to $875 million.
The main reason Uber (UBER), Lyft, and I’ll lump Netflix (NFLX) into the mix too, lose money is because they intentionally underprice their services allowing consumers to take advantage of a great deal in relative terms stoking outperforming revenue growth.
All those years of losses can be shouldered by the venture capitalists if revenue growth outweighs the pain of short-term losses.
But when a company takes that step to go public, everything changes.
No longer can they sweep the mountain of losses under the carpet to the deep-pocketed VCs, but they are penalized for it by a lower share price under the control of panicky shareholders.
Lyft started to raise prices in June and since Uber went public as well, the duopoly is in the same boat.
This means that your rideshare route home from the bar after the last call is about to get more expensive.
Since Lyft and Uber have a boatload of data, they will surgically pick and identify the routes and distance that do the least damage to end demand.
This will clearly be the routes and distances that have such an overwhelming and pent up demand that they can nudge up prices an extra 5% or more if they can get away with it.
In my head, these routes mean downtowns in metros with high paying jobs with poor public transportation links such as Los Angeles or Seattle.
Another route that I believe will get a bump in price is late-night surcharges often when partygoers are inebriated or out on the town.
Lyft has pockets of opportunities to exploit.
The cost inflation won’t stop there because even though Lyft “beat expectations” due to this pricing change, there is the long-term fixation on profitability that haunts management.
The pricing trick made Lyft rejig its annual targets expecting revenue of between $3.47 billion and $3.5 billion this year, up from a previously stated range of $3.275 billion to $3.3 billion.
The one metric that bodes well for the service is the 21.8 million “active riders” on its platform beating expectations by about 0.7 million year-over-year.
Lyft’s services are scalable and the growth will help mitigate losses and even though it’s in the public market, that doesn’t mean that it can’t stop growing.
Both ride-sharing services going public at almost the same time has meant that the price war that resulted in massive discounts to riders is no more.
Each service has incentives to raise prices in the most pain-reductive way possible for riders.
This particular tech category is certainly high risk - high reward as Lyft and Uber still face ongoing litigation in California courts concerning the job status of its drivers about whether they are classified as employees or independent contractors.
The more imminent issue is how much can they price hike before consumers balk.
Riders certainly have a price threshold that they aren’t willing to accommodate.
Luckily, Uber and Lyft have a treasure trove of data and can manipulate it to their interests by floating out trial balloons to test bold initiatives.
These two tech companies will not be able to shake off the volatility disease for the foreseeable future as the laundry list of predicaments spell turbulence.
Long term, they must show more to investors than “peak losses” but for the time being, they have survived the gauntlet.
I would not buy shares short-term, the most recent spike has snatched away an accommodative entry point.
“Bigger than the world of the world is your mind.” – Said Founder and CEO of Huawei Ren Zhengfei
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