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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Spend Until Revenue Comes

Tech Letter

Spend, spend, and spend some more.

That is the current zeitgeist in the tech community about the direction of generative artificial intelligence.

Companies are trying to outdo each other to see how much cash they can splurge to build out the AI infrastructure.

This is no joke.

Remember that there have been no meaningful explanations about how much revenue will directly come from AI, but my belief is that we are still in the “honeymoon phase” of the AI movement.

Eventually, and gradually, real questions will be asked and results will need to be provided instead of “building” nonstop with no accountability.

We are still in the phase of giving AI a pass which is why many have suggested stocks like Nvidia are turning into a bubble similar to 2001.

How do I know that AI is back?

Look at the chips stocks who were leading the tech rally for most of the year.

They sold off violently because of the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade, but the dip was bought because the discounts were too good to pass up for investors and because the AI trade isn’t over yet.

The snapback in chip stocks was v-shaped and set the stage for the rest of the year to power into the close.

I do believe the tech sector will receive better-than-expected news from the wider economy that shows the consumer is in better shape than initially thought.

The bar is extremely low for tech stocks to jump over and I do believe the ones with great balance sheets will use shareholder returns to convince shareholders to stick with their stocks.

AI hardware and chip companies have led the bounce in the Nasdaq from its August low, with Nvidia the index’s top performer, up almost 30% and just 6.1% short of the all-time high, as of its last close. Similar stocks like Micron, Marvell Technology, Super Micro Computer, and Broadcom have all participated in the snapback.

Strong monthly sales from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing similarly pointed to robust AI demand.

The build-out of AI infrastructure is expected to be both enormous and long-lasting and investment in data center infrastructure needed to support GenAI could reach $6 trillion.

Capex from big tech could potentially increase by as much as 25% in 2025, well above the consensus expectation for 10-15% growth. This is especially positive for AI enablers in the semiconductors field.

Nvidia’s expensive valuation is completely justified when you understand that they carry the entire tech sector which is carrying the entire market on their back.

Shorting NVDA has probably been one of the worst trades you could have made in the past few years.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-21 14:02:552024-08-21 15:24:28Spend Until Revenue Comes
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 19, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 19, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(WHAT WILL PALANTIR STOCK DO FOR THE REST OF 2024?)
(PLTR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-19 14:04:092024-08-19 14:15:26August 19, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

What Will Palantir Stock Do For The Rest Of 2024?

Tech Letter

Not all tech stocks are created equal.

Some have the power of connections from the beginning and that goes a long way to understand if a company can do what it takes to survive.

Very rarely do tech companies come out of nowhere and it is true that recognized venture capitalists help like rocket fuel.

Palantir (PLTR) was supported initially by tech insider billionaire Peter Thiel. 

It’s not surprising that this is a company sitting deep at the intersection of strategic national intelligence and artificial intelligence.

The stock hit a low of $5 per share and now trades north of $32 per share.

Investors might easily understand this company as the war tech stock and co-founder and CEO Alex Karp is in no mood to apologize or be politically correct for its military, police, and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement services despite facing massive backlash.

Karp acknowledged the company’s consistent pro-Western view despite polarizing views regarding the appeasement of Iran, Russia, and China.

Karp refused to apologize for defending the U.S. government on any issue and he has never wavered behind their principle of powering the U.S. government.

Karp stood out for his fierce criticism of Former US President Donald Trump, but he has said that he will work with both administrations.

Karp also maintained his pro-artificial intelligence stance, indispensable to preventing AI abuse.

In August, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $678.13 million, up 27% year-over-year, topping the analyst consensus of $652.1 million.

Palantir has been selling AI software for much longer than most of its competitors, which gives it a leg up on its competition. It started off as a software program intended for government use, with the simple concept of data in and insights out. This helped guide real-time decision-making by ensuring the people making the choices had the best possible information in front of them.

Still, government revenue makes up more than half of Palantir's total and rose at a 23% pace. It was powered by U.S. government revenue, which saw the highest demand since 2022.

No matter how you dice it up, Palantir's Q2 results were phenomenal. However, management thinks its growth may slow in Q3. Third-quarter revenue is expected to be about $699 million, indicating growth of 25%. While that's less than Q2's growth rate, management has consistently beaten its guidance.

My opinion about where the PLTR’s stock is going might surprise some people.

On one hand, the United States has the biggest military in the world and will covet and utilize PLTR’s software to continue to make real-time decisions in a national security sense.

On the other hand, the issue I have with PLTR is not with the quality of the business, but the price of their stock.

The stock has risen too fast too furiously in a short-amount of time.

The move from $5 per share to $32 took place over a 2.5-year time frame obviously boosted by global events in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

For the rest of the year, I do think PLTR has a chance to blow past $40 per share and at that point, we will most likely reach the short-term high water mark of the stock.

The stock is due for a big sell-off once the AI frenzy cools down a little and that could be later this year.

Remember that the AI narrative has reignited in the short-term so it is smooth saying until the next road bump.

This is a complex company and with many of those, the trajectory of the stock can be many times more complicated.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-19 14:02:572024-08-19 14:15:14What Will Palantir Stock Do For The Rest Of 2024?
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 19, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“The superior man understands what is right; the inferior man understands what will sell.” – Said Chinese Philosopher Confucius

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/confucius.png 338 290 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-19 14:00:352024-08-19 14:14:54August 19, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 16, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 16, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(BIG RISKS TO TECH DISSIPATE)
($COMPQ), ($TNX), (FXY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-16 14:04:042024-08-16 13:17:31August 16, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Big Risks To Tech Dissipate

Tech Letter

I don’t believe the tech sector is toast and it isn’t true to say that the burnt crust is the only part left over.

There is still vitality in it at the core of the tech sector ($COMPQ).

Granted, the trajectory left isn’t enough to propel tech stocks to a meteoric rise, but tech stocks should perform quite robustly in the run-up to the next earnings report.

So for all that are waiting for the bubble to burst – wait a little longer my friends.

In the meantime, let’s take a quick barometer of some of the outsized risks to big tech and ponder about the idea that outside or indirect events could possibly takedown tech shares.

China bailed the world out of the last three recessions and now they are a risk to drag down the rest of the world.

In each case, China's high growth and massive issuance of stimulus kick-started global expansion, and now that is gone with the wind.

China's model of economic development which worked so brilliantly in the boost phase, is now out of potency.

If American tech shares are sideswiped by global contagion, don’t bet on China to come bail out the radical overlords of Silicon Valley. China has its own problems and is entirely focused on that.

The era of zero-interest rates and unlimited government borrowing has ended. As Japan has shown, even at insane low rates ($TNX) of 1%, interest payments on skyrocketing government debt eventually consume virtually all tax revenues.

Japan was the black swan that could have cratered the tech market. Instead, it was a mild selloff yet manageable selloff creating a beautiful entry point for most of tech stocks.

Money is coming off the sideline to join in on a sharp rally into the U.S. presidential election so in the end the Japanese currency (FXY) risk was basically much-a-do-about-nothing.

At the start of the cycle, global debt levels (government and private sector) were low. Now they are high. The boost phase of debt expansion and debt-funded spending is over, and we're in the stagnation-decline phase where adding debt generates diminishing returns.

The era of low inflation has also ended for multiple reasons, but the tech shares have proven they can unequivocally march higher in an era of high inflation.

This is ironically due to tech being better positioned than other industries on a relative basis, because of their strong moats and iron-clad balance sheets.

The resilience in tech also echoes the idea that every company has become a tech company by integrating its products and revenue streams into daily business operations.

Tech productivity boom is hardly a one-off so as readers fret, please don’t think shares will magically drop to zero.

Dips are being bought and prices will go higher in the short term.

Economists were in awe in the early 1990s by the productivity stemming from the tremendous investments made in personal and corporate computers, a boom launched in the mid-1980s with Apple's (AAPL) Macintosh and desktop publishing, and Microsoft's Mac-clone Windows operating system.

By the mid-1990s, productivity continued to rise and the emergence of the Internet triggered the adoption of most of the population to get online and do business.

All the doomsday prophets who said high debt and high interest rates were the cocktails to finally stop tech stocks in their tracks got it completely wrong.

I am not saying debt and high interest rates are positive for equities, but tech has been able to skillfully navigate the headwinds with their excellent management skills and pivot towards leanness.

The buzz around AI holds still has a lot to prove, but the market is still celebrating its deflection of the Japanese yen carry trade.

I am not saying that tech shares will never have to confront anything that can drag them down meaningfully, but many of the high risks have either been postponed or dealt with.

We are in a position where tech should steamroll into the end of the year barring some type of crazy event.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-16 14:02:062024-08-16 13:17:22Big Risks To Tech Dissipate
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 16, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Life's tragedy is that we get old too soon and wise too late.” – Said Benjamin Franklin

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/benjamin-franklin.png 394 302 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-16 14:00:222024-08-16 13:17:11August 16, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 14, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 14, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(POSITIVE SIGNAL FOR THE TECH RALLY)
($COMPQ), ($TNX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-14 14:04:592024-08-14 15:37:26August 14, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Positive Signal For The Tech Rally

Tech Letter

We received highly bullish news from the fiscal policy side today.

Conditions are everything in the short-term which is why macro events sometimes steal the whole show by destroying or propping up market sentiment.

Scare events can shock investors and become the impetus to take profits to protect capital.

Fortunately, the data from the CPI index has most likely given the green light for the US Central Bank to officially initiate its easing cycle next month.

My guess is that Fed Governor Jerome Powell cuts by 25 basis points and it could turn out to be a hawkish cut.

This is massively bullish for tech stocks ($COMPQ) leading up to the next earnings report in October.

This sets the backdrop for tech stocks to motor towards the upper left in upcoming months.

Lower rates ($TNX) translate into lower costs of capital for tech stocks to borrow money for paying stuff like salaries, software, and hardware.

The high-rate environment has translated into a dearth of companies going public and has stifled the creative juices at the formative stages of Silicon Valley.

That last jobs report offered new signs of a cooling labor market, which stoked fears that the Fed may have waited too long to start lowering interest rates after keeping them at a 23-year high for the last year.

A milder inflation reading released Wednesday removes one of the last hurdles the Federal Reserve needed to clear before cutting rates in September.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.9% over the prior year in July, down from June's 3% annual gain in prices. On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in July climbed 3.2% over last year — down from 3.3% in June. That was the smallest increase since April 2021.

The new numbers are the latest confirmation that inflation is in fact dropping off a cliff after heating back up during the first quarter of the year, a development that prompted the Fed to warn at one point that rates would likely stay higher for longer.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear at the end of last month that a cut in September was “on the table” as long as the data supported it. He and other policymakers have said they want to be sure that inflation is in fact moving “sustainably” down to their 2% goal.

Tech stocks have positively correlated with interest yields since 2020, which is counterintuitive.

What this really means is that the growth rate of tech has overpowered the 5% Fed Funds rate which is quite impressive.

That high rate was supposed to pummel tech stocks and that fear-mongering failed to materialize.

No doubt the AI boom delivered a helping hand to tech shares as well.

Tech stocks were one of the few sectors in the public market that remained attractive in the face of aggressive rate hikes.

With the Fed almost to the point of reversing hawkish policy, I do believe it is “all systems go” for tech stocks in the short-term and this removes yet another possible black swan event off the table.

I am bullish on tech shares in the short-term.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-14 14:02:142024-08-14 15:37:09Positive Signal For The Tech Rally
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 14, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I believe you have to be willing to be misunderstood if you're going to innovate.” – Said Founder of Amazon Jeff Bezos

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Jeff-Bezos-quote-of-the-day.jpg 256 256 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-14 14:00:462024-08-14 15:36:19August 14, 2024 - Quote of the Day
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