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MHFTR

September 27, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE RATS ARE LEAVING THE SINKING SHIP AT FACEBOOK)
(FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-27 01:07:562018-09-26 19:04:48September 27, 2018
MHFTR

The Rats Are Leaving the Sinking Ship at Facebook

Tech Letter

It could end up all in tears for Facebook (FB).

This was the key takeaway from shocking news that Instagram’s CEO Kevin Systrom and CTO Mike Krieger quit on the spot.

The ideal word to describe this new development is devastation.

Ultimately, this could pave the way for Facebook to screw up Instagram.

Instagram was the crown jewel in Facebook’s portfolio and recently topped the 1 billion monthly active user (MAU) mark.

Leonardo da Vinci once famously said, "Poor is the pupil who does not surpass his master.”

When founder Systrom sold his company to Facebook for $1 billion in 2012, Instagram had 50 million monthly active users.

Preconditioned in the contract, Systrom was promised a high degree of autonomy that would allow him to grow Instagram as he saw fit.

The relationship was harmonious until 2018 when the pupil surpassed his master in innovation.

Instagram’s growth trajectory has been the envy of Facebook for some time, but that could be explained by the law of numbers and Instagram starting from a small base of users.

Peel back the skin and the situation has been festering for some time.

It came to light that Mark Zuckerberg issued a “throttling back” promotion and marketing for Instagram that peeved Systrom.

This crushed the referral numbers on Instagram, and it almost appeared that Zuckerberg wanted to deliberately bottleneck the growth of Instagram.

On the product engineering side, complication started to mount.

In the past, an Instagram photo uploaded onto Facebook was labeled with an Instagram insignia clearly showing the photo source came from Systrom’s company.

Zuckerberg tweaked this detail and removed the Instagram logo, making it seem that the content originated from Facebook.

Facebook started taking credit for Instagram’s content, and that sent Systrom bouncing off the walls inside his own company that was promised autonomy.

Even though this disagreement seems irrelevant, it showed the intent of Facebook going forward.

This was the beginning of the meddling behind the scenes, and the founder of Instagram aborted ship while he could.

Facebook stealing content and innovation from Instagram damaged Instagram’s team spirit as well.

It came to the point where Systrom saw no way out. After an extended paternity leave that gave him some free time to refresh his vision, he thought the only choice that Zuckerberg left him was to throw in the towel.

I have said numerous times that for Facebook to move on, Zuckerberg must relinquish his role as CEO.

Any CEO in the world operating at the performance level of Zuckerberg would have been sacked long ago.

Zuckerberg is an anomaly because of his stranglehold on voter’s rights excludes him from ever firing himself.

Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg is quoted as saying “people are fired at Facebook on a regular basis for not doing their jobs.”

People are fired at Facebook but not Zuckerberg.

Anytime the sushi hits the fan at Facebook, Zuckerberg conveniently fires others involved and washes his hands of the mess.

Granted, Instagram’s success was aided by Zuckerberg’s resources and Facebook’s embedded base, but this debacle is laid squarely on the Zuck’s shoulders.

Systrom and Krieger did not give a specific reason for the abrupt departure, which usually means they left unsatisfied.

Since they are the bosses of their own creation, the only factor could be personal or Facebook – easy to guess this one.

Instagram is starting to cannibalize its parent company - a major headwind for this company and stock.

Users are quitting Facebook in droves, and Zuckerberg’s only answer is to become Instagram, which Facebook already owns.

That is why the theft of credit due and engagement began in the first place.

The only bonkers move that could happen next is if Zuckerberg installs himself as the new CEO of Instagram.

Shareholders were biting their nails when they heard this news.

You would think Facebook would do everything they possibly could to entice Systrom and Krieger to stay.

They are the best thing going for Facebook right now.

In allowing this to happen, Facebook creates a massive leadership vacuum at the top of Instagram.

Whispers from Silicon Valley have one of Zuckerberg’s close friends taking over at Instagram, which would be a monumental error.

The outsized risk is if Instagram starts morphing into another Facebook, and engagement sours and usership drops like dead flies.

Facebook has demonstrated its misunderstandings of operating in a climate of big data concerns.

I have also documented how the digital ad industry will have a day of reckoning that is on the horizon, albeit not anytime soon.

Instagram’s CEO certainly closely observed how WhatsApp founders Jan Koum and Brian Acton ditched their brainchild after Zuckerberg rammed down their throats that he would accept the adoption of digital ads.

Former CEO Acton was in the news again, too. He harshly criticized the way Facebook operates, specifically slaughtering Sandberg’s greedy persona and unethical stance toward data privacy models.

In the same interview, he claims he was coached up to mislead European regulators and explain that combining these two data troves, Facebook and WhatsApp, would be near impossible when in reality it was not.

The European Commission fined Facebook $122 million two years later for false information in the original filing, and Facebook maintains these mistakes were unintentional.

If Facebook wants to use its business to practice crony capitalism and push the border of the truth, then it will catch up to them.

Zuckerberg’s imposing his will for the interests of himself and his best friends has been a growing trend at Facebook. As next quarter’s earnings season approaches, Facebook’s stock could get hit hard.

As momentum stagnates, shareholders are concerned that Zuckerberg is forcing out his best and brightest talents.

These decisions smell of desperation to control the company he created. And as fresh leaks about the mismanagement come to light, investors must stay away from Facebook.

Mismanagement at this company did not happen in one day.

Let’s trace back the performance of chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg a few years ago or her lack of it.

The executive was busy on her book tour around America that took her to many cities promoting her book “Lean In.”

She also wrote another book on top of that.

She even had time to promote her books on daytime talk show Oprah.

At the same time, Zuckerberg was in the middle of completing his personal goal of visiting the 30 states he had never set foot in before.

His “personal challenges” brought him in touch with real Americans, which is almost absurd, since it almost sounds as if he had grown up in Bangladesh, barely spoke a word of English, and is not American, which he is.

Another “personal challenge” of Zuckerberg was learning Mandarin Chinese and running through the smog of Beijing while being pictured in front of the Forbidden City.

When did Zuckerberg and Sandberg have time to run Facebook?

While the executive management was out of the office, the seeds of chaos were sown that all came to light after Sandberg and Zuckerberg were back.

The engineering team had excavated Russian state-sponsored hacking on the platform.

But since the entire 127-member security team worked under the tutelage of Sandberg, the engineering team’s discoveries remained unacted on.

Facebook engineers had also unearthed fake news operations located in Macedonia running riot on its website.

Since most security flaws originate from the engineer side in the form of fake news and manipulation, it’s hard to fathom how there were no channels of communication between the security team and the engineering side.

Sources inside of Facebook note that Sandberg’s business side of Facebook, and Zuckerberg’s engineering side almost mimic “two separate businesses that share the same campus.”

Exposing the manner in which Facebook is run makes it simple to diagnose the extent of major problems cropping up.

Effectively, Facebook grew so fast the past few years that it invited any type of growth – good, bad, and the ugly.

And it did nothing to root out the nefarious actors ruining the platform.

Now comes the hard part of cleaning up the bad and the ugly while segmenting out the good, and persuading the healthy users not to quit.

This will be expensive, time consuming, and awful for the future stock price.

The spillover effects are far from over.

Instagram’s founder and CEO Kevin Systrom quitting isn’t the disease – it’s a side effect.

The disease still hasn’t been cured and remains in the system.

Avoid Facebook shares as the FANGs have decoupled from this digital ad legacy firm.

The days of stellar growth are in the rearview mirror, and the stock won’t experience the parabolic price action it saw in the past.

Facebook needs major internal surgery in its management ranks. Until then, it’s a dysfunctional titanic unsure of when the next iceberg will hit.

Expect surprises, but surprises to the downside.

 

 

 

Kevin Systrom Says Goodbye on His Instagram Profile

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Kevin-Systrom-goodbye-image-3-e1537988114570.jpg 388 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-27 01:06:282018-09-26 19:04:16The Rats Are Leaving the Sinking Ship at Facebook
MHFTR

September 27, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

 “Someone once described entrepreneurship to me as a series of happy accidents,” said founder and former CEO of Instagram Kevin Systrom.

 

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MHFTR

September 26, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 26, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DID SIRIUS OPEN UP PANDORA'S BOX?),
(SPOT), (P), (SIRI), (AAPL), (AMZN)

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MHFTR

Did Sirius Open up Pandora’s Box?

Tech Letter

In a flurry of deals, the music streaming industries consolidation is powering on as some of the industry’s biggest players have completed new acquisitions.

Is there a new King of the Castle?

Not yet.

In any case, the shakeout still allows Spotify to claim itself as the No. 1 company in the music streaming industry, but Apple (AAPL) and Sirius XM (SIRI) have gained.

There is still work to be done for the trailing duo but it is a step in the right direction.

Apple’s deal with Shazam, which just gained approval, was consummated last December, but was held up by European regulators over antitrust problems.

The Europeans have clamped down on American tech companies of late forcing them to play nicer after decades of running riot inside the region.

The Shazam app analyzes then pinpoints titles from music, movies, and television shows based on a brief sample through the device’s microphone.

If your neighbors are blasting the tunes upstairs at a Friday night shindig and you want to find out what song is causing you to lose sleep at night, just turn on your microphone and upload it into Shazam.

Shazam will tell you exactly the song’s title and the artist’s name.

Even dating back to 2013, this app was among the top 10 most popular apps in the world.

In 2018, Shazam has carved out a user base of more than 150 million monthly average users (MAU) and growing.

Shazam is used more than 20 million times per day.

An opportunity lies in urging Shazam users to then adopt Apple music.

Interestingly enough, to upgrade the quality of the app’s functionality, Apple is stripping away digital ads in Shazam.

Apple has made an unrelenting attempt to avoid introducing lower grade tech that could potentially taint its clean-cut brand.

Recently enough, film producers have complained that Apple is completely averse to any content with gratuitous violence, excessive drug use, and candid sex scenes.

Apple wants to cultivate and sell its pristine image.

Digital ads also fail to make the cut.

This spotless image boosts Apple’s pricing power along with the high quality of products that has seen Apple retain its place as the producer of the best smartphone in the world.

Other smart phone brands are still in catchup mode with a brand image significantly inferior to Apple’s.

And Apple CEO Tim Cook isn’t even interested in monetizing Apple music, and is more focused on “doing the right thing” for it.

Yes, the job of every company is to be in the black, but the No. 1 responsibility for a modern tech company is to grow and grow profusely.

Tech investors pay for growth, period.

As investors have seen with Netflix, companies can always raise prices after seizing market share because of the stranglehold on eyeballs inside a walled garden.

That potent formula has been the bread and butter of powerful tech companies of late.

Spotify is a captive of the music industry, of which it is entirely dependent for its source of goods, in this case songs.

At the same time, the music industry has fought tooth and nail to destroy the likes of Spotify, which benefits immensely from distributing the content it creates.

History is littered with failed music streaming services outgunned in the courtroom. Pandora (P) is the biggest public name out there whose share price has tanked over the long haul.

Pandora has created a proprietary algorithm offering song recommendations to listeners, but it is more or less an online music streaming app heavily reliant on a freemium pricing model with ads.

Sirius XM Holdings, a satellite radio company, signaled its intent in the music streaming business by taking a 19% in Pandora’s business last year.

It has followed that up now by completing a full takeover of the Oakland, California company for $3.5 billion.

This move adds 75 million users to its 36 million usership on Sirius and, in my view, the main objective is an eyeball grab to buy more listeners dragging them into its walled garden.

To triple a user base instantly to 75 million listeners is a boon for Sirius, which now has the firepower to legitimately compete with Spotify.

Pandora has been shopping itself around for the past two years, and companies such as Facebook were whispered to be eyeing this company.

Facebook chose to focus on developing dating and romance functions on its platform, and has mainly ignored the music streaming possibilities.

More critically, it allows Sirius to diversify out of the car space where satellite radio is predominantly used.

As much as Americans love to drive, the home is where they rest, and sleep, and Pandora will unlock a path into the home of listeners.

Synergies between home audio through Pandora, and car audio through Sirius should be evident over time.

The music streaming industry, such as the television streaming industry, has become fiercely competitive as of late. And this is a prudent move for Sirius to buy a new customer base at the same time as moving into the home.

The trend of tech companies penetrating the home and making it as smart as possible is revived constantly.

This piece of news isn’t as earth-shattering as Amazon’s (AMZN) smart home product launch event, but nonetheless indicates another leg up in competition for fresh user growth and its data.

This M&A surge is occurring amid a backdrop of the music industry’s obsession to exterminate Spotify and the other music streaming companies.

They are on a mission to force up the royalties these Internet giants must pay to pad their pockets and protect their interests.

Royalties are the music streaming companies’ main cost, and for Spotify, these royalty payments eat up 78% of total revenue.

But that does not mean Spotify is a bad company or even a bad stock.

Every company has its share of pitfalls. Throw in the mix that Amazon (AMZN) and Apple have music streaming services that do not even need to make a profit, and you will understand why some might be wary about putting new money to work in music streaming business stocks.

The primary reason that Spotify shares will outperform for the foreseeable future is because it is the preeminent music streaming platform.

Also, there is favorable latitude to make way toward the goal of monetization, and ample space to improve gross margins.

Global streaming revenue growth has gone ballistic as the migration to mobile devices and cord cutting has exacerbated the monetization prospects of the music industry.

Streaming revenue was a shade under $2 billion in 2013, and continued to post a growth trajectory of more than 40% each year since.

As it stands now, total global streaming revenue registered just a tick under $7 billion per year in 2017, and that was an improvement of 41.1% from 2016.

The choice among choices is Spotify in 2018.

The company was dogged by many years of famous artists removing their proprietary content from the platform citing unfavorable terms.

Eventually, almost all artists have relented and reinstalled their music on Spotify. They depend on alternative moneymaking avenues to compensate for lack of royalties, mainly live music.

Spotify has seized even more industry power with its new function of completely bypassing the music industry altogether, by offering a way for aspiring artists to directly upload music content onto its online platform.

Crushing the middleman has been a widespread theme in the tech industry for the past few decades, and the music industry is no different.

As technology has hyper-accelerated, the cost of producing music has plummeted giving access to just about anyone who has any talent.

No need to rent a sound studio for thousands of dollars per hour anymore in West Hollywood, and the music industry knows it.

It could be possible that the next cohort of viral artists will never cough over a dime to the music industry, and the bulk of the profits will be collected by a music streaming titan that distributes their content online.

How does Spotify make money?

It earns its crust of bread through paid subscriptions but lures in eyeballs using an ad-supported free version of its platform.

Naturally, the paid version is ad-less, and this subscription is around $5 to $15 per month.

In the second quarter, Spotify’s paid subscription volume surpassed 83 million, a sharp uptick of 40% YOY.

Ad-supported users came in at more than 101 million, even under the damage that General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) did to western tech companies.

The ad-supported subscribers rose 23% YOY, and the paid version expects between 85 million to 88 million paid subscribers in the third quarter.

Many of the new paid subscribers are converts from its free model.

Spotify is poised to increase revenue between 20% to 30% for the rest of 2018.

The rise of Spotify's developing data division could extract an additional $580 million of revenue in 2023, making up 2% of total revenue.

When Spotify did go public, the robust price action was with conviction, making major investors - such as China’s Tencent, which possess a 9.1% stake and Tiger Global Management, which owns 7.2% - happy stakeholders.

In the last quarter’s earnings report, Spotify CFO Barry McCarthy reiterated the company’s goal to push gross margins from the mid-20% range to “gross margins in the 30% to 35% range.”

A jump in gross margins would go a long way in making Spotify appear more profitable, and that is the imminent goal right now.

Bask in the glow of the growth sweet spot Spotify finds itself in right now.

For the time being, the music division of Amazon and Apple are just a side note, even with Apple’s purchase of Shazam.

But Apple is vigorously improving its service products as its software and services segment moves from strength to strength, but that doesn’t particularly mean Apple Music.

Investors must sit on their hands to see how Sirius’s acquisition of Pandora plays out. These are by no means two extraordinary companies, and a major overhaul is required to make these two mediocre companies into one overperformer.

If you had to choose among Sirius, Pandora, or Spotify, then cautiously leg into a few shares of Spotify to test the waters.

 

 

 

 

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MHFTR

September 26, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“You're right, we're not in it for the money,” said Apple CEO Tim Cook when asked about Apple Music in 2018.

 

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MHFTR

September 25, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 25, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(AMAZON’S HOME INVASION),
(AMZN), (GOOGL), (HBB), (PG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-25 01:07:022018-09-24 21:07:21September 25, 2018
MHFTR

Amazon’s Home Invasion

Tech Letter

In another resplendent display of corporate expertise, Amazon (AMZN) debuted its stunning new lineup of smart home products aiming to dominate your inside walls.

In total, Amazon gave consumers 15 new devices to dabble with – an unprecedented amount.

Amazon Echo, Amazon’s smart speaker, also received a software update.

Jeff Bezos’ company is traversing where they have never been before, infiltrating the car with the Echo Auto, executing location-based routines such as directing drivers running on a brand-new operating system.

Other products in the shop window were smart devices related to security, a clock, an upgraded Echo Dot, and a microwave.

The biggest nugget delivered in this release event was the advent of the Amazon Echo-on-a-chip – Amazon Connect Kit.

Essentially, it would allow any third-party manufacturer that vies for smart home supremacy to embed an Amazon produced chip into its product and design the architecture around it.

This foray has already turned heads with appliance companies already raving about this new development.

Consumer product companies such as Hamilton Beach (HBB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) are in the midst of engineering its own products centered around the Amazon connect kit.

North America sales and marketing senior vice president at Hamilton Beach Scott Tidey said his company has been “surprised at how easy it is to use the Alexa Connect Kit to prototype devices and create Alexa commands with just a few lines of code.”

In the near future, consumers could be maneuvering around their homes with products possessing a legion of these new Amazon proprietary chips.

Amazon is bent on penetrating your home and turning it into the smart home you always dreamed of, and this is one of the in-roads that will take them to the holy grail.

This hard-charging approach has been effective.

Wait to see which products go viral, then go after market share like crazy.

This approach made the Amazon Kindle a favorite of many tablet goers.

It helps that Amazon products are crafted with intense precision and great attention to detail.

As more consumers devour new Amazon devices, the synergistic effects benefit its comprehensive eco-system.

Once a customer becomes entirely drenched in Amazon products, it becomes the backbone to a customer’s existence.

Ask the millennial generation, and a good portion of them entirely depend on Amazon to fuel their daily routine.

Any replacement services would waste them hours and be a whole lot pricier.

As the voice assistants become widely adopted, it could blow a hole in Google (GOOGL) search.

Google search is still reliant on its desktop search, even though more and more people are migrating to its mobile search platform.

But if Amazon can stay ahead of Google in the voice assistant race, it could supplant Google as the premier search engine.

It might be an existential crisis for Google search and the minions of Google ad tech engineers.

Google is still wholeheartedly reliant on advertisement revenue, which is its profit engine.

Although, the cash cow digital advertisement business has made the company famously rich, regulation is a ticking time bomb, as the government has a bull’s-eye marked at this Silicon Valley mainstay.

Amazon has smartly moved up the value chain of search, and believes voice-activated search will be the revolutionary search function in the next few years.

It’s hard to argue with its prognosis.

Providing enough high-caliber accoutrements that mesh with its voice supported portfolio will expedite adoption and put strenuous pressure on Google to evolve faster.

Even worse, the golden years for digital advertisement have passed and the pressure on margins could exacerbate.

Fighting Amazon would provoke the margin bears and in one fell swoop, Alphabet, which is waiting on Waymo to take off, could get hip-checked by the Seattle-based company.

As the FANGs start to bleed over into each other’s business, these new product events take on a more important meaning.

The Amazon-effect has the tendency to destroy smaller company’s stocks, but going forward, large companies will be just as badly affected as Amazon branches off into new spheres spearheading revolutionary initiatives.

This speaks volumes to the innovation of Amazon, and why the best innovators will always stay one step ahead.

Amazon is rated the No. 1 company by the Mad Hedge Technology Letter and after this stellar debut of various IoT products, it’s hard not to like them even more.

And if Amazon’s connect kit catches fire and Google is forced to concede this hardware to Amazon, it would be a kick in the midsection to Google whose IoT strategy is not sticking as strongly as it would like.

Amazon does not want to co-exist with other companies. However, it smartly concedes certain segments until it is confident in taking that segment over.

This is why Amazon’s in-house brands are starting to wreak havoc on the third-party sellers on its e-commerce platform.

Amazon ingenuously chose to make a microwave because the technology hadn’t changed much in a generation, yet it was in dire need of simplification.

Seize the low-hanging fruit before you tackle the more difficult challenges.

Once Amazon masters the simpler devices in the home, watch out!

The rest of the home will be up for grabs too because of the same reason many companies heed way to Amazon – it does it way better than any other company for a fraction of the cost.

The multiplier effect will be in full force when Amazon finally constructs its shiny new headquarter somewhere outside of Seattle giving Amazon more manpower to fulfill Bezos’ vision.

My bet is that it will be placed smack dab in the middle of Washington D.C. – a stone’s throw away from the White House where Bezos has been increasingly active adding to his army of lobbyists.

With regulation on the verge of breaking social media’s back, Bezos is acutely aware of protecting his assets as if his life depended on it.

Bezos also has a house in Washington and owns the Washington Post.

Amazon doesn’t rest on its laurels because it doesn’t dominate 80% of the Android market, and it must be the aggressor and the disruptor at the same time.

Rolling out 15 smart products blew away the drooling audience and left them befuddled and craving for more.

Amazon must do it another way than Google and its way; the Amazon way, is the winning strategy.

It’s hard to imagine that Google is still reliant on a legacy business to print them money. And as the digital ad industry sinks, Google will sink, too.

Google still hasn’t found the next answer that can marshal it to safe waters.

Its eggs are still in one basket – unlike Amazon.

As Amazon steamrolls the little companies that never had a chance, the threat of them taking out a Google- or a Facebook-size company grows exponentially.

Ironically, Amazon’s digital ad business is set to surpass $4 billion by the end of the year, and it’s not even the main aim for Bezos.

The digital ad business is a side business for Bezos.

His visions are grander and awe-inspiring, and this product rollout affirms this vision.

This is the beginning of something much more powerful. Any investor who thinks Amazon shares are expensive is crazy.

The report of bribery in Amazon’s system and the subsequent short-term weakness in the shares is a great chance to buy Amazon on the dip because this stock is going higher.

Anybody would be a fool to short Amazon.

This company exudes quality, and many would agree with me.

 

 

 

Just The Beginning And More Smart Products On The Way

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MHFTR

September 25, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“People who are right most of the time are people who change their minds often,” said Jeff Bezos, Amazon cofounder, chairman and CEO.

 

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MHFTR

September 24, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
September 24, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(BAD NEWS FROM MICRON TECHNOLOGY (MU),
(MU), (BABA), (KLAC), (LRCX), (INTC), (AMD), (NVDA), (HPQ)

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