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Douglas Davenport

Welcome to the NEW Microsoft

Tech Letter

Investors are clamoring for cloud plays, which along with artificial intelligence (AI) have become the hottest investment themes of 2018.

However, many are ignoring one of the best new cloud plays of all, and that would be Microsoft (MSFT). However, this is not your father's Microsoft.

Microsoft (MSFT) is the poster boy for legacy tech turned cutting edge once again. It is now one of the top three cloud companies behind Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL) and is closing fast.

In fact, most people have been using their products for years and have no clue of this amazing turnaround.

This year, 2018, has been the year of the cloud. As such, cloud stocks have been bulletproof, with leaders including Salesforce (CRM) and Red Hat Inc. (RHT) celebrating all-time highs.

The cloud companies are basking in the momentum of rising earnings and accelerating growth. Their fundamental stories are solid, and growth drivers unrelenting.

The No. 1 reason is the sheer increase in global data. Market intelligence services predict total data will grow to 163 zettabytes by 2025, which is 10 times the data generated in 2016.

For all the math geeks out there, 1 zettabyte is a trillion gigabytes.

This incredible volume of data will uncover new types of business and the user experience will evolve. In the near future, more than 20% of the data will be imperative just to normally function by 2025.

Big data is smartly harnessed by all profitable companies today and this data needs storage - huge amounts of it.

Fortune 500 companies operate from cloud software that streamlines and harmonizes operations, which is called enterprise software. The data accumulated on these platforms is digital gold, and infers trends and paradigm shifts on which CEOs base game changing-decisions.

The best up-and-coming cloud business is hands down Microsoft Azure. The existential threat of (MSFT)'s Azure is probably the only thing that keeps Jeff Bezos awake at night.

Azure produced a revenue beat for the ages, increasing by 98% QOQ. Microsoft's Azure public cloud is eating into Amazon Web Services (AWS) market share.

AWS is critical to Amazon's (AMZN) fortunes as its outperformance allows Bezos the cash flow to dump products on its e-commerce platform at or below cost, seizing market share and a higher stock price.

Microsoft delivers hybrid consistency, developer productivity, AI capabilities, and trusted security and compliance on Azure to its corporate customers. Partnering with other firms to provide cloud services is punctuated by bottom- and top-line outperformance.

At the micro level, investors can deduce the sticky underpinnings that are creating a profitable moat around Azure with these few examples.

Microsoft has an important relationship with Chevron (CVX), which uses Azure IoT to harness massive amounts of seismic data from its oil fields to accelerate deployment of modern, intelligent solutions for oil exploration.

Azure's cloud services also help Chevron manage thousands of oil wells dotted around the world, increasing revenue and operating safely and reliably.

Kohler is another company to link up with Microsoft's cloud bundle by building connected, voice-activated products powered by Azure IoT and Johnson Controls (JCI). GLAS thermostat with Cortana voice control uses scalable device management capabilities in Azure IoT and Windows IoT.

The Kroger (KR) supermarket chain is deploying Azure to fuel its digital grocery store display for real-time pricing, discounts and promotions based on shoppers' data to levitate sales.

Home improvement company Lowe's (LOW) in-store robot uses Azure to manage inventory and notify human management of out-of-stock or misplaced items. This is yet another example of humans and robots working in perfect harmony.

These are some of the examples of why Microsoft Azure is tearing into AWS's market share. Azure simply offers a more robust set of cloud software solutions compared to AWS because of its better enterprise functions, and it may become the future for all of us.

Another segment that gets little love is the LinkedIn purchase by Microsoft in 2016. LinkedIn, the employment networking site, aided by strong sales execution totaled $1.3 billion in quarterly revenue. Higher user engagement, customer acquisition, renewals and upsell performance make this the preeminent platform for business networking.

The next step is further integrating the leading professional cloud with the leading professional network. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of more than 20% growth for LinkedIn. I believe more can be done to monetize LinkedIn, and the potential is enormous.

Another segment that really cuts across the majority of the tech ecosphere via GPUs, A.I., hardware and software is gaming. Today, gaming is as hot as cord cutters, and millennials love playing video games.

Microsoft has been in the gaming space since the beginning, and revenue sprouted up by 8% QOQ driven by hardware revenue growth of 14% QOQ. The hardware comes in the form of premium console, the Xbox One X, the top-selling console in the US this past holiday season.

Microsoft has parlayed its commitments in gaming into acquiring PlayFab, which serves upward of 700 million avid gamers with more than 1,200 games from Disney, Rovio and Atari. It's a unique backend platform for mobile, PC and console game developers to scale up cloud-connected games linked with Azure to provide a world-class cloud platform for the gaming industry.

Microsoft is so much more than just an operating system and Microsoft Office in 2018. That is the old Microsoft. And that being said, Office 365 increased subscribers to 29.2 million last quarter, up from 28 million QOQ.

We have been in and out of Microsoft many times. Now, if it would only give us another decent dip, we could revisit the trough one more time.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-03-14 01:05:192018-03-14 01:05:19Welcome to the NEW Microsoft
Arthur Henry

March 13, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 13, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY YOUR HATED CABLE COMPANY IS ABOUT TO DIE),
(AMZN), (NFLX), (APPL), (DIS), (GOOGL), (TWTR), (FB), (ROKU)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-13 01:06:362018-03-13 01:06:36March 13, 2018
Douglas Davenport

Why Your Hated Cable Company is About to Die

Tech Letter

Look at any survey of the most despised companies in America and there is always one industry that comes out on top: cable companies such as AT&T, (T), Comcast (CMCSA) and Charter Communications (CHTR).

We all have been reading about cord cutting and the death of cable for years. However, this trend is about to vastly accelerate.

The death of cable is upon us in full force and streaming plays should represent a heavy weight in any aggressive portfolio.

Jerry Seinfeld and David Letterman are two Hollywood names gracing the broadband waves of Netflix (NFLX). Add one more superstar name to the mix as that of former President of the United States, Barack Obama.

Obama has tentatively agreed to produce new content centered on inspirational people and their stories. Add in former First Lady Michelle Obama who also will play a part in compiling the new content. You can expect about half the country to watch it.

Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (APPL) were lining up deals before Netflix scored the arrangement. Music streaming giant Spotify, set to go public later this month, also has a deal on the table with former President Obama to be the face of a presidential playlist.

The bidding war for top content is hugely bearish for traditional media companies such as Disney (DIS), which is subject to stringent regulation from the FCC (Federal Communications Commission). Disney stock has been languishing in the doldrums for years, peaking at $120 in mid-2015. It is still hovering around the $100 level 3 years later.

The recent risk-off move in (DIS) can be attributed to one horrific segment of the business that was its main growth driver for 25 years - ESPN.

In the 1990s, ESPN was a media darling for the ages. It could do no wrong. Its base, mainly young tech-savvy males, loved every piece of content from the daily sports news to the live games that permeated its channels.

Then cord cutters started appearing out of the woodwork and swiftly migrated to (NFLX)'s attractive pricing at $8.99 per month in 2015, which sure beats cable at upward of $100 per month.

Better late than never is that Disney finally announced a unique proprietary streaming service straight to the consumer in 2018. The three years of inaction put the company three years further back in the quickly growing broadband streaming revolution. Disney also stated it will pull all (DIS) content from competitor (NFLX).

Legacy companies have a two-pronged problem: saddled with irrevocable multi-year commitments absorbing capital and a behemoth legacy business in marginal decline that is a headache to shift. Asking the Titanic to suddenly transform into a fancy speedboat is a tough ask for anyone.

The red flags are unbridled in the cable universe. Fox Networks plans to readjust hourly ad load down to 2 minutes within 2 years! Fox has some work to do to whittle down the ad load because last year's hourly ad load clocked in at 13 minutes. Advertising executives indeed feel aghast in what will be known as the first phase of the death of cable. This machination is unquestionably bullish for social media platforms such as Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) because net ad loads are migrating to millennial eyeballs on those platforms.

Millennials, currently the biggest consumer-ready demographic, are the most advertising-adverse generation ever to exist. Stories of binge-watching (NFLX) are rife, and live sports shows increasingly are found pirated online from Eastern Europe.

TV ratings are rapidly declining to the degree that bottom line growth will be materially harmed. Traditional media is experiencing a cocktail of lethal headwinds that could wipe it out totally. Simply put, commercials negatively affect the user experience and the plethora of options in the streaming world makes it a buyers' market.

(NFLX)'s hyper-accelerating subscriber growth begets higher growth. Love them or hate them, (NFLX) and (AMZN) business models are the architectural blueprints applied to every tech stock. To be condemned as a legacy business is the most damning label in the tech industry.

Hiring Bill Ackman is probably the only move that would be worse. Anyone not betting the ranch on broadband streaming is quickly banished to investor purgatory with the likes of GameStop Corp. (GME).

Tech is starting to get priced as a luxury. Gone are the days of disheveled mopheads joining forces in a shabby Los Altos, Calif., garage as did Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Groundbreaking tech is power, and big tech knows it.

As much as I would like to rain on (NFLX)'s parade, I cannot. Investors only look at one number as they do with many other tech companies. The company's license to spend gobs of cash on new content revolves around subscriber growth.

Last year was full of whispers that (NFLX)'s domestic mojo would start to neutralize. Quarter over quarter estimates came in at 1.29 million new domestic subscribers, and international estimates were expected to net 5.10 million. Domestic net adds were almost 35% higher than guidance at 1.98 million.

International net add growth is viewed as the source of a long runway, and it did not disappoint, beating QOQ guidance by 20% with 6.36 million new net adds. Overall, total net adds beat QOQ estimates by 23.2% and is the biggest reason (NFLX) is up over 70% in 2018.

Where does this all lead?

Do not buy any media stock without a thriving streaming business. The shift in buying power from baby boomers to tech-reliant younger generations will exacerbate cord cutting, and users will naturally deviate toward online streaming.

The most popular streaming services in 2017 were (NFLX) and (AMZN), which should be part of every investor's portfolio. Google (GOOGL) has YouTube, which also is no pushover. Another wild card is smart TV company Roku (ROKU), which is the (FB) of smart TVs and procures revenue from ad load. (ROKU)'s active accounts are up 44% year over year, and revenue per user has increased more than 30% YOY.

If you look down the road, the legacy companies that can smoothly transform into streaming content companies will be rewarded by investors but stocks such as (DIS) are in a wait-and-see mode.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2018-03-13 01:05:312018-03-13 01:05:31Why Your Hated Cable Company is About to Die
Arthur Henry

March 12, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 12, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHERE ALL THAT TAX CUT MONEY WENT)
(CISCO), (MSCC), (MCHP), (SWKS), (JNPR), (AMAT), (PANW), (UBER), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-12 01:06:382018-03-12 01:06:38March 12, 2018
Arthur Henry

Where All That Tax Cut Money Went

Tech Letter

I bet you are wondering where all that money from the tax cuts is going.

Believe it or not, the number one destination of this new windfall is technology companies, not just the stocks, but entire companies.

In fact, the takeover boom in Silicon Valley has already started, and it is rapidly accelerating.

The only logical conclusion in 2018 is that tech firms are about to get a lot more expensive. I'll explain exactly why.

The corporate cash glut is pushing up prices for unrealized M&A activity in 2018. U.S. firms accumulated an overseas treasure trove of around $2.6 trillion and the capital is spilling back into the States with a herd type mentality.

I have chewed the fat with many CEO's about their cash pile road map. All mirrored each other to a T - strategic acquisition and share buy backs, period. The acquisition effect will be felt through all channels of the tech arterial system in 2018.

As the global race to acquire the best next generation technology heats up, domestic mergers could pierce the 400-deal threshold after a lukewarm 2017.

Apple alone boomeranged back over $250 billion with hopes of selective mergers and share buy backs. Cisco (CSCO), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL) were also in the running for most cash repatriated.

The tech behemoths are eager to make transformative injections into security, big data, semiconductor chips, and SaaS (service as a software) among others.

Hint: you want to own stocks in all of these areas.

U-turns from legacy technology firms hawking desktop computers and HDD's (Hard Disk Drive) suddenly realize they are behind the eight ball.

M&A activity will naturally tilt towards firms dabbling in earlier-stage software and 5G supported technology. This flourishing trend will reshape autonomous vehicles and IoT (Internet of Things) products.

The dilemma in waiting to splash on a potential new expansion initiative is that the premium grows with the passage of time. Time is money.

Unleashing the M&A beast comes amid a seismic shift of rapid consolidation in the semiconductor sector. Cut costs to compete now or get crushed under the weight of other rivals that do. Ruthless rules of the game cause ruthless executive decisions.

The best way to cut costs is with immense scale to offer nice shortcuts in the cost structure. Buying another company and using each other's dynamism to find a cheaper way to operate is what Microchip Technology (MCHP) culling of Microsemi Corporation (MSCC) in a deal worth $10bn was about.

Microsemi, based in Aliso Viejo, California, focuses on manufacturing chips for aerospace, military, and communications equipment.

Microchip's focal point is industrial, automobile and IoT products.

Included in the party bag is a built-in $1.8 billion annual revenue stream and over $300 million of dynamic synergies set to take effect within three years. The bonus from this package is the ability to cross- sell chips into unique end markets opposed to selling from scratch.

Each business hyper-targets different segments of the chip industry and are highly complementary.

Benefits of a relatively robust credit market create an environment ripe for mergers. Some 57% of tech management questioned intend to go on the prowl for marquee pieces to add to their arsenal.

No need to mince words here, 2018 is overwhelmingly a sellers' market. Nimble buyers should prepare for price wars as the new normal.

Not only are the plain vanilla big cap tech firms dicing up ways to enter new markets, alternative funds are looking to splash the cash too.

Sovereign wealth funds and private equity firms are ambitiously circling around like vultures above waiting for the prey to show itself.

Private equity firms dove head first into the M&A circus already tripling output for tech firms.

Highlighting the synchronized show of force is no other than Travis Kalanick, the infamous founder of Uber. He christened his own venture capital fund that hopes to invest in e-commerce, real estate and companies located in China and India.

The new fund is called 10100 and is backed by his own money. All this is possible because of Masayoshi Son's, CEO of Softbank, investment in Uber, which netted Kalanick a cool $1.4 billion representing Kalanick's 30% stake in Uber.

It is undeniable that valuations are exorbitant, but all data and chip related companies are selling for huge premiums. The premium will only increase as the applications of 5G, A.I., autonomous cars start to pervade deeper into the mainstream economy.

Adding fuel to the fire is the corporate tax cut. The lower tax rate will rotate more cash into M&A instead of Washington's tax coffers enhancing the ability for companies to stump up for a higher bill. Sellers know firms are bloated with cash and position themselves accordingly.

Highlighting the challenges buyers face in a sellers' market is Microsemi Corp. (MSCC) purchase of PMC-Sierra Inc. Even though PMC-Sierra had been looking to get in bed with Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) just before the MSCH merger, PMC-Sierra reneged on the acquisition after (SWKS) refused to bump up its original offer.

(SWKS) manufactures radio frequency semiconductors facilitating communication between smartphones, tablets and wireless networks found in iPhones and iPads.

(SWKS) is a prime takeover target for Apple. (SWKS) estimates to have the highest EPS growth over the next 3-5 years for companies not already participating in M&A. Apple (AAPL) could briskly mold this piece into its supply chain. Directly manufacturing chips would be a huge boon for Apple in a chip market in short supply.

In 2013, Japan's Tokyo Electron and Applied Materials (AMAT) angled to become one company called Eteris. This maneuver would have created the world's largest supplier of semiconductor processing equipment.

After two years of regulatory review, the merger was in violation of anti-trust concerns according to the United States. (AMAT), headquartered in Santa Clara, California, is a premium target as equipment is critical to manufacturing semiconductor chips. (AMAT) compete directly with Lam Research (LRCX) who is an absolute gem of a company.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) sells the third most routers and switches used by ISP's (Internet Service Providers). They are also number two in core routers with a 25% market share. Additionally, (JNPR) has a 24.8% market share of the firewall market.

In 2014, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), another takeover target focusing on cybersecurity, paid a $175 million settlement fee for allegedly infringing (JNPR)'s application firewall patents.

In data center security applications, (JNPR) routinely plays second fiddle to Cisco Systems (CSCO). Cisco, the best of breed in this space would benefit by snapping up (JNPR) and integrating their expertise into an expanding network.

Unsurprisingly, health care is the other sector experiencing a tidal wave of M&A and it's not shocking that health care firms accumulated cash hoards abroad too. The dots are all starting to connect.

Firms want to partner with innovative companies. Companies hope to focus on customer demands and build a great user experience that will lead the economy. Health care costs are outrageous in America and Jeff Bezos could flip this industry on its head.

Amazon (AMZN) pursuing lower health costs ultimately will bind these two industries together at the hip and is net positive for the American consumer.

Ride sharing company Uber embarked on a new digital application called Uber Health that book patients who are medically unfit for regular Uber and shuttle them around to hospital facilities.

Health care providers can hail a ride for sick people immediately and are able to make an appointment 30-days in advance. It is a little difficult to move around in a wheel chair, and tech solves problems that stir up zero appetite for most business ventures. Apple is another large cap tech titan keeping close tabs on the health care space.

It's a two-way street with health care companies looking to snap up exceptional tech and vice-versa.

It's practically a game of musical chairs.

Ultimately, Tech M&A is the catch of the day and boosting earnings requires game changing technology. Investors will be kicking themselves for waiting too long, buy now while you can.

 

 

Yes, It's All Going Into Tech Stocks

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/need-cash.jpg 250 364 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-12 01:05:102018-03-12 01:05:10Where All That Tax Cut Money Went
Arthur Henry

March 9, 2018

Tech Letter
??

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 9, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY CHINA IS DRIVING UP THE VALUE OF YOUR TECH STOCKS)
(QCOM), (AVGO), (AMD), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (INTC), (LSCC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-09 01:06:382018-03-09 01:06:38March 9, 2018
Arthur Henry

March 8, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 8, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE CODER BOOM)

??
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-08 01:06:052018-03-08 01:06:05March 8, 2018
Arthur Henry

March 7, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 7, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(A STRAIGHT LINE TO PROFITS WITH SQUARE),
(AMZN), (JPM), (SQ), (TWTR), (WMT), (PYPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-07 01:06:362018-03-07 01:06:36March 7, 2018
Arthur Henry

A Straight Line to Profits With Square

Tech Letter

The recent rumor linking up Amazon (AMZN) with JP Morgan (JPM) to produce an Amazon branded bank account is not all that shocking.

Jeff Bezos seems to cause a stir with every finger he lifts.

But if I had to choose one man that will revolutionize the digital payment industry and banking it is not Jeff, but Square (CEO) Jack Dorsey.

Jack is the logical choice. Investors only need to see the proof in the pudding.

Without much hype, Jack Dorsey is in the midst of applying for a bank charter in the state of Utah.

This is in the form of an ILC (Industrial Loan Charter), only available in select states, which allows non-financial firms to enter the banking sector without any regulation or oversight by the Federal Reserve.

If you wondered why so many of your credit cards come for the Beehive State this is why.

This loophole would allow fintech companies to become fully-fledged financial players. ILC's are not subject to state licensing rules, which most legitimate banks must adhere to.

This is occurring during a more exaggerated backdrop of big tech scarcely being regulated at all. Small fines and slaps on the wrist don't meaningfully count.

Utah boasts over half of the ILC's currently in operation. The original purpose of the Utah ILC was to offer loans to blue collared workers around 1905-1910.

Other fintech companies employing this tactic is Sofi which Anthony Noto just took over and is part of the Softbank Vision Fund. Noto was the former COO of Twitter (TWTR) and was largely tabbed as the guy who turned around the ship there.

Lamentably, Anthony Noto left Twitter because of his aspirations to become a CEO, which was currently filled by Jack Dorsey. Yes, the same Jack Dorsey who is the CEO at Square.

Effectively, Anthony Noto left Twitter to duke it out with Jack Dorsey's other company Square. This has also given more credibility to Sarah Friar, CFO of Square, who just joined the Walmart (WMT) Board of Directors and is a true high flier.

It is assumed that with Noto's departure, Sarah Friar will pick up the slack at Square when Jack is putting Twitter's house in order across the street.

Sadly, Jack can't physically be in two places at one time. And an algorithm of himself has not been created yet.

Sarah Friar could be the next to jettison for a CEO position elsewhere as gaining a job credential from a Jack Dorsey company is digital crypto-gold.

At the micro level, Square is summed up by one number, GPV (Gross Payment Volume). It's the only metric investors look for. GPV on Square's platform surpassed $65 billion in 2017 and there no chance the upward trend will reverse in 2018.

Square (SQ) braggadocio stems from its brilliant pipeline of innovation.
The greatest benefit of being led by a super star visionary like Jack Dorsey is the high-quality offerings marinating in the pipeline.

Suffice it to say the quality is higher than relative to industry competitors allowing investors to double down on the Jack premium.

This was the same concept with the Steve Jobs premium at Apple (AAPL).

Once boards christen custodial type CEO's like Steve Ballmer and Tim Cook who are interested in shepherding the company instead of revolutionizing it, investors become disheartened for the lack of hyper-acceleration. Custodial CEO's tend to be reactive instead of proactive which is a self-defeating strategy.

Simply put, consumers love great products.

Investors are attracted to the fact that heavy hitters haven't adopted Square's services yet and Square is experiencing whirlwind momentum as they move upstream.

Up to this point, Square's success has been created on the back of small business growth. The momentum is a function of three points: product quality, distribution quality, and support services quality.

Over 80% of large merchants migrate to Square themselves. The easy to use platform directs these Fortune 500 companies effectively. They visit the website once, pay for the service they need, and do not need to communicate with anyone.

This vindicates the product existence and similar to Tesla (TSLA), they don't need physical dealers to sell. Customers find them and not the other way around.

Square Cash is fast becoming the millennial way to pay for things, which is Bearish for PayPal (PYPL). It's the easiest way to digitally send money. Cash is available for both personal and business use.

The Square Cash App is now available for trading Bitcoin (BTC) except for users in New York, Georgia, Hawaii, and Wyoming.

Even though the Bitcoin announcement will not drive the bulk of its business, the Bitcoin disclosure is a thinly veiled advertisement for its peers representing innovation and hyper-pace of transformation at Square.

This is the gumption that attracts top level engineers to Jack Dorsey's enterprises.

Other products that customers notice in stores is Square Register, which is a state of the art POS (Point of Sales) system. Also, there is Square Stand which is the iPad POS system that swivels around to customers from the cashier.

Square Capital is making inroads too with loan growth up 23% QOQ. Square capital provides business loans to small businesses. This is the part of the business that directly competes with SoFi.

On a financial level total net revenue is robust at $616 million QOQ, up 36% YOY and the 2018 calendar year will be even better for Square.

Square expect to offer expanding financial services for both sides of the transaction. The only limit to growth is its imagination, as is evident with the roll-out of new products almost every quarter.

Highlighting the extreme growth are invoices, virtual terminal, and e-commerce API payments, all commanding higher margins.

Subscription and service revenue rose 96% YOY. The ability for outsized growth of this scale through rapid product innovation and the chance to cross-sell into an embedded Square customer is essentially the cloudification seen in all tech companies these days.

In 2018, expect total net revenue to guide between $2.82 billion to $2.88 billion and represents a 32% YOY growth respectively.

Jack Dorsey is not a CEO to bet against and when a 96% bump in service and subscription revenue cannot even break into the top 3 reasons to buy this stock, investors know they have a gem on its hands.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/jack-dorsey.jpg 352 503 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-07 01:05:412018-03-07 01:05:41A Straight Line to Profits With Square
DougD

Amazon's Big Play in.....Doorbells?

Tech Letter

Is the $1 billion Amazon (AMZN) just spent for a doorbell company ludicrous, or genius? This question becomes incredibly pertinent as the battle for the front door heats up.

Transcending cultures since the time of antiquity, a door is a portal to a man's kingdom, his inner space.

Doors were first used inside Egyptian tombs some 5,000 years ago, and the Roman god Janus was the overseer of doors long before Jeff Bezos came along. Doors still continue to encapsulate beginnings, endings, transitions, and time.

A door is first and foremost an entrance. A potential entrance for Amazon to capture market share before the rules of the road are set.

Once entering the main door, hallways are linked with other rooms and other doors that lead to other worlds, which Amazon will pursue once they enter the home.

An open door represents the future and opportunity for a new market. A locked door typifies failure, rejection, and imprisonment. Amazon has created a $700 billion business that stops right outside your door. It's time for them to take the next step.

What would be the monetizing synergies if consumers offer access to that front door and Amazon slowly moves deeper into the house?

The goal is to remove any layers, material or psychological, that stands between Amazon profits and customers.

The door must be beaten down, and convincing consumers its permissible to enter the family sanctuary could fuel another round of tech prosperity and hyper- accelerating tech integration into daily lives.

It is fundamentally impossible to live a practical life in 2018 with analog instruments such as quaint pencil and paper. Consumers are increasingly addicted to technology, and future business applications revolve around harnessing tech acumen which cannot be rooted out retroactively.

The FOMO (Fear of Missing out) phenomenon that has gripped the business world is putting a turbocharger on this trend.

Remember that big tech companies aren't regulated like normal companies and have a built-in license to destroy any industry they desire.

This is immensely bullish for tech stocks. Regulation just cannot keep up. Tech companies believe that they should not be liable or accountable for any unintended consequences. Witness the Russia affair.

By contrast, media companies are harshly regulated by the government, and their content is subject to intense scrutiny. Remember Janet Jackson's infamous "wardrobe malfunction" at the Super Bowl? Unfortunately, media companies do not receive a free pass like the FANG's.

The FANG's free pass has put the family abode directly in the firing line. Alphabet (GOOGL) understands this to full effect; the new $229 Nest Doorbell will be distributed with a free Google Home Mini this spring.

Google Nest was purchased for $3.2 billion in 2014, and was launched by former Apple (AAPL) engineers Tony Fadell and Matt Rogers.

Google Nest has been accused by Ring CEO Jamie Siminoff of stealing their product innovation. Ring is the distinct best of breed in this industry and complements Amazon Key, which automatically opens doors for verified delivery workers.

This was the first adventure into this space by CEO and founder Jeff Bezos and supplements Amazon's Alexa which can cross-integrate with 3rd party devices in over 35,000 unique ways.

In a world where the demarcation of ecosystem lines are clearer and clearer by the day, the FANG's are seducing users into a proprietary closed ecosystem and padlocking anyone that is currently inside.

Facebook (FB) and Google do not sell anything, they just want user time, especially platform user time, to accumulate data to hawk ads to advertisers.

Apple, which does sell something physical, wants customers to buy iPhones, HomePods, and pay for its mish mash of services that integrate under the umbrella of the Apple smart home.

The FANG's have similar yet competing strategies. It is unknown how fast homes will become smart, as we are in the first stage of smartification. But there are a certain set of battleground products such as smart locks, thermostats and security cameras already.

Thermostats are easy to use, and various firms contribute energy rebates for thermostats upgrades.

The $1 billion spent on Ring, or Google's $3.2 billion tab for Nest Labs are FANG's intent to take a major stab at overtaking the place you sleep at night by making it socially acceptable for corporate tech to venture and operate inside houses.

The goal is to create a seamless, automated, enjoyable experience all on one pay tab called the smart home. After a consumer buys multiple products from the same tech company, they investigate further how to connect and integrate all these offerings together.

Thus, the tech climate fiercely focuses on admission into a new ecosystem by any means necessary.

If Amazon can seize the house, it will seize everything that is inside.

Smart homes will not work if the smattering of products and services derive from all different makers. You have to choose a common platform.

Unsurprisingly, home security companies sold off on this news, and this new trend has thrown a spanner into the works for firms such as ADT Inc. (ADT) who have curated a 30% market share. They are the first on the chopping block.

This Boca Raton, Florida company specializes in offering security to residential and small business enterprises. They possess far more weight in the industry compared to rivals Johnson Controls International (JCI) and private firm Vivint.

ADT went public in January 2018 and expected to garner a price of $17-$19. ADT is trading below $11 today. Some of the headwinds analysts have previously mentioned are "increased competition", but nobody thought competition would come in the form of the most powerful company ever to be created in the history of mankind - Amazon. Ouch!

Ironically, in January 2016, Vivint, formerly known as??APX Alarm Security Solutions Inc, agreed to cooperate with Amazon and Nest. Vivint Element team is working on its own smart thermostat and the Vivint Ping Camera for front doors.

This is not a coincidence and the mutual connectivity in tech is everywhere. There are fewer degrees of separation between companies and industries than ever before.

Everyone is overlapping to the point where Amazon refuses to sell Google Nest products on its interface and Google stripping YouTube from all Amazon streaming devices. The more successful these smaller players become, the greater chance of a takeover by a more liquid player.

The FANG's have become juggernauts and any remnant of competition is undercut before it can become a threat and neatly placed under the umbrella of their greater visions.

This strategy has been rampant with botched attempts like Mark Zuckerberg's failed purchase of Snapchat (SNAP) for $3 billion in 2013 and Yahoo's failed buy of Facebook for $1 billion in 2006, just before Zuckerberg launched the fabled news feed.

Even though Vivint is not owned by a FANG, Blackstone Group acquired them for more than $2 billion in 2012.

If you look back in time, Amazon should have never become Amazon. Walmart should have bought it before it gained any traction. Same goes for search - Yahoo should have bought out Google before it became Google. Such is the incredible value of 20/20 hindsight.

Siminoff's Ring is now part of Amazon's death star. Ultimately, if doors are associated with privacy and protection and Amazon can successfully maneuver around these certain sensitive elements, its share will go ballistic.

Is That Google Watching?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/camera.jpg 188 281 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2018-03-06 10:12:342018-03-06 10:12:34Amazon's Big Play in.....Doorbells?
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