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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

This Tech Stock Has More Room To Run

Tech Letter

There is more room for stocks to extend themselves to the upside, which is great news for many who think we might be reaching the last gasp up in tech.

We aren’t there yet and the longest late-cycle bull market continues.

It certainly isn’t over - we received some timely commentary from one of the most prominent venture capital firms in technology, Andreessen Horowitz.

The company isn’t afraid to tell the truth.

Sometimes that means sticking in where it really hurts like a jab to the gut in an industry where most people get their feelings hurt quite easily.

I understand the bravado partly results from the mountains of success that have preceded them, but nonetheless, it is refreshing to hear from successful people who have their pulse on the tech sector.

Google might be among corporate America's favorite success stories, but some people aren't convinced Big Tech is operating as efficiently as it could be.

There is still a lot of frittering away in Mountain View, California or that is what Andreessen Horowitz has to say.

The venture capitalist firm said that most Google workers don’t really do anything.

What do I mean by that?

To do nothing “except complete a 10-minute task every now and again” is what they said.

Some workers used their weekdays to learn how to scuba dive or go for a Thai massage because there wasn’t much for them to do in the office.

Companies retaining a bloated headcount with people who don't actually help drive the company forward shows how profitable these companies are.

When push comes to shove and a recession slams us blindly, Google will know what to do with these workers.

The company later said a “bunch of people” in large corporations are working “BS jobs.”

“Anyone who works in a 10,000+ person or larger white-collar job company knows that a bunch of the people can probably be let go tomorrow and the company wouldn’t really feel the difference, maybe it’d even improve with fewer people inserting themselves into things.”

Much of the vendetta against tech workers isn’t all justified, but I do believe it is more about the top 10% carrying the load for the other 90%.

The top end of the talent pool is so brilliant, they are leading $2 trillion companies and that doesn’t happen with a bunch of morons, does it?

However, another trend I have noticed is that America could be running out of talent after exhausting India and China while work visas have never been harder to procure.

After getting rid of the bad workers, will there be those superstars that move the window and that is a big doubt moving forward.

Talking with people in the know, there is great uncertainty with the direction of big tech as nobody understands what will really succeed the smartphone.

The smartphone was that one vehicle of profit that all companies knew they had to make money from and now what is next?

Is it a virtual reality with all those goofy headsets giving people headaches?

Companies are pouring billions into figuring out what the next iPhone is and it’s more like throwing paint on the wall and seeing what sticks.

Luckily, the tech bull market should continue but many companies are facing existential threats due to lack of innovation and lack of top-end employee talent.

If innovation somehow takes a wild turn away from the AI path, many companies could blow up.

Until then, buy the dip in GOOGL until a black swan hits the industry or sub-sector. They have many ways to keep the stock from going down like their newly minted dividend which is a first in the company.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-08 14:02:392024-05-08 16:08:23This Tech Stock Has More Room To Run
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 8, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“If you try to do too much, you will not achieve anything.” – Said Confucius

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/confucius.png 338 290 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-08 14:00:372024-05-08 15:51:55May 8, 2024 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 6, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 6, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(BUFFETT CHIMES IN ON AI)
(BRK/A), (SMCI), (AI), ($UST10Y)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-05-06 14:04:242024-05-06 20:42:13May 6, 2024
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Buffett Chimes In On AI

Tech Letter

At the once-per-year shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) in Omaha, Nebraska, the shindig has become a caricature of itself.

A company that does so well, but the leader has self-proclaimed to understand nothing about technology.

It was fascinating to see the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett dabble in the cooler talk that is talk about artificial intelligence.

Ironically enough, his pep talk about AI was littered with negatives about the consequences of AI.

Warren Buffett's warning about AI’s potential harm has everything to do with his conservative risk tolerance to not beeline straight to the front of the most modern developments in the tech industry.

He’s late on most stocks but he’s right on them in the end.

It wasn’t too far back when Buffett only would invest in a company as complicated as Coca-Cola, because he famously stated that he doesn’t invest in companies that he doesn’t understand.

Insurance also made Buffett a killing pouring capital into companies like Aflac.

He finally came around to Apple which for better or worse is known as the iPhone company.

His risk tolerance of tech increasing to the almighty smartphone was quite a jump for Buffett that took many years, so don’t expect another leap of faith anytime soon.

In fact, Buffett claiming he doesn’t understand AI too well means there is a lot of capital sitting on the sidelines waiting to enter once they finally do “understand.”

I should also just note the general stockpile of money that has been waiting on the sideline since the Covid-era is enormous.  

Any meaningful dip in any meaningful tech company will be met by a torrent of new buying demand.

That’s exactly what happens when the number of great tech companies can be counted on 2 hands.

Almost like what is happening with American restaurants – it’s not that American restaurants are going through a generational renaissance, no, they are packed because so many small restaurants closed after COVID.

Tech is experiencing the same playbook with investor money.

The past 7-12 years have seen the spurring on competition squelched, and the tech industry has never been closer to a full-blown monopoly in some sub-sectors.

Once the bulls get back in control, we are off to the races again, because a few companies move markets now.

That’s what I believe we are seeing in the short-term with the US 10-year inching up only for Central Bank Fed Chair Jerome Powell to deliver us a monumental dovish speech to the sticky inflation we are seeing in numbers now.

Buffett chose to talk about the darker side of AI and the potential for scamming people.

He said that scamming using AI will become a “growth industry of all time.”

Buffett pointed to the technology’s ability to reproduce realistic and misleading content in an effort to send money to bad actors.

Just because we don’t like it, we cannot write it off or afford it as investors.

Readers must deal with AI and the manifestations of it.

One of the big side effects is that it accelerates the winner-takes-all dynamics of tech.

If I were a newbie investor, Super Micro Computers (SMCI) would be on the radar as a powerful growth stock with bountiful potential and exposure to AI.

More tech companies will fail, and they will fail faster, without a trace of even existing sometimes.

It also puts extreme pressure on tech management to implement AI, lose funding, or lose the momentum the business model.

It almost makes tech management over-reliant on AI to fix any and every mess.

The reality is that there will be a lot of losers from AI and punishes companies that never figure out AI.

It is best to identify them before the stock goes to 0.

I don’t necessarily share the same dark outlook as Buffett and I commend him for doing so well on his performance, but when it comes to technology stocks, he shows up late, but it is better than never showing up.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-05-06 14:02:012024-05-06 20:43:12Buffett Chimes In On AI
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 6, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

Man is not free unless government is limited.” – Said Former US President Ronald Reagan

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-04.png 440 375 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-05-06 14:00:282024-05-06 20:43:47May 6, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 3, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 3, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(ARE 8% RATES GOOD FOR TECH?)
(GOOGL), (AAPL), (JPM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-03 14:04:512024-05-03 15:17:26May 3, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Are 8% Rates Good For Tech?

Tech Letter

Although much of the mass media ignores some of these dire reports issued by some prominent finance guys, I have taken notice.

I’m not here to scare you.

Everything will work out fine.

It was only just lately that one of the most public-facing US bankers, Jamie Dimon, delivered us a future warning that could mean bad results for many tech companies.

I won’t say that every tech company will be ripped to shreds, there are still a few that are head and shoulders above the rest and could withstand heavy shelling.

But 8% rates is a world that could spook tech investors.

It just goes to show that some numbers floating around are starting to come into the realm of possibility even if the probabilities are quite low.

Dimon’s thesis centered on “persistent inflationary pressures” and unless you’re an ostrich with your head in the ground, prices haven’t come down for most stuff that we buy including software and tech gadgets.

Rates close to 10% would kill many golden gooses in various industries and I do believe a world of rates that high would really put the sword to the throat of many tech companies.

If that happened, kiss the tech IPO market goodbye and just be happy that we squeezed into Reddit this year.

More often than not, American tech companies are gut-punched when there is a global growth slowdown because many of these companies extract revenue from everywhere.

They are so big that they have to unearth every stone in far-flung places to keep the growth narrative chugging along.

The unemployment rate remains below 4% and businesses, but a world of 8% interest rates would mean another 50% downsizing of tech staff and a rockier path to profits.

Amidst heightened global uncertainty, what has the technology sector delivered to us lately?

Shareholder returns.

Google rolled out the carpet for its first-ever dividend.

Apple increased its dividend by announcing a new $110 billion share repurchase plan.

What is my takeaway here?

Has Apple run out of bullets here so much so that a share buyback is better to do than give its clients a new product?

They do this also because they can afford to and many tech companies would view this as a luxury.

However, there will come a time where the market will demand a new killer product and that day is inching forward.

How do I know that?

iPhone sales are down 10% in the first 3 months of 2024 and that is absolutely awful.

Even if the market looks through these terrible numbers, the day of reckoning inches up, and when it comes, not even a shareholder buyback will massage the stock higher.

Like a magician, this earnings season was a great escape for tech, and I question how many more earnings seasons will they get a pass for.

In a scenario of 8% interest rates, 95% of tech stocks would drop and a few heavyweights would be forced to carry the load. Psychologically, it would scare off the incremental tech investor and that is the bigger problem.

There is only so far the can is able to get kicked down the road.

In the short term, I would be inclined to buy on the dip after we can digest this mediocre earnings season, but at some point, this “bad news is good news” will disappear with the wind.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-03 14:02:322024-05-03 15:16:54Are 8% Rates Good For Tech?
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 3, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

Man is not free unless government is limited.” – Said Former US President Ronald Reagan

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/reagan.png 474 294 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-03 14:00:062024-05-03 15:16:08May 3, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 1, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 1, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE BIG RETAILER DIVING INTO FINTECH)
(WMT), (PYPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-01 14:04:412024-05-01 16:00:59May 1, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Big Retailer Diving Into Fintech

Tech Letter

The takeaway I get from Walmart’s (WMT) push into fintech is that fintech is becoming mighty crowded in the short-term and this trend most likely won’t change anytime soon.

Walmart has been one of the big companies trying to beef up online commerce so it’s no surprise that wants to marry up this initiative with an in-house digital payment mode.

It could be that sometime in the near future that the likes of PayPal, Klarna, and Affirm who don’t have their e-commerce platform will be muscled out of this digital payment space.

Walmart’s in-house fintech startup One has begun offering buy now, pay later loans for big-ticket items at some of the retailer’s more than 4,600 U.S. stores.

The move puts One raises the question of whether major retailers need the help of outside payment apps.

Right now, Affirm, the BNPL leader has been the exclusive provider of installment loans for Walmart customers since 2019.

One is a mobile one-stop shop for saving, spending, and borrowing money.

Affirm helped the WMT generate $648 billion in revenue last year.

Ironically enough, offerings from both One and Affirm are available at checkout, and loans from either provider are available for purchases starting at around $100 and costing as much as several thousand dollars at an annual interest rate of between 10% to 36%.

Electronics, jewelry, power tools, and automotive accessories are eligible for the loans, while groceries, alcohol, and weapons are not.

One’s no-fee approach is especially relevant to low- and middle-income Americans who are “underserved” financially.

One could generate roughly $1.6 billion in annual revenue from debit cards and lending in the near term, and more than $4 billion if it expands into investing and other areas, according to Morgan Stanley

Walmart can use its scale to grow One in other ways. It is the largest private employer in the U.S. with about 1.6 million employees, and it already offers its workers early access to wages if they sign up for a corporate version of One.

Fintech players including Block’s Cash App, PayPal, and Chime dominate account growth among people who switch bank accounts and have made inroads with Walmart’s core demographic.

The three services made up 60% of digital player signups last year.

One has the great advantage of being majority-owned by a company whose customers make more than 200 million visits a week.

It can offer them enticements including 3% cashback on Walmart purchases and a savings account that pays 5% interest annually, far higher than most banks, according to customer emails from One.

One has access to Walmart’s sizable and sticky customer base, the largest in retail and that is worth a lot right there.

It’s entirely feasible that Walmart keeps growing its digital platform and in-house fintech app to somewhat look like a tech company in a few years.

I’ve written a few times about how Walmart is mimicking many of the best practices from the great tech companies and who knows, they might even employ a cloud division to take care of its own data and warehouse operations.

The day where outsourcing much of the data to software companies is very much over for big companies like WMT who are making deep inroads and investment into their tech prowess.

WMT’s stock has always been given that non-tech premium and I believe that will slowly change around as the growth rates start to pick up.

WMT is one of those American companies that are strongly positioned to do well in inflationary times and picking up all the $100,000 per year white collar professionals is a massive victory as they figure out ways to monetize this higher spend base.

This is a great company to buy on any dip and hold long term.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-01 14:02:212024-05-01 16:00:43The Big Retailer Diving Into Fintech
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