November 30, 2010 – Hollywood Cashes in on Wall Street’s Woes

Featured Trades: (MY HOLLYWOOD ROLE)   1) Hollywood Cashes in on Wall Street's Woes. I have done many things in my life: hedge fund manager, pilot, cowboy, journalist, stock broker, mountain climber, translator, guide, etc, etc. etc. Now add technical consultant to Hollywood to the list. According to the New York Times, Simon Baker, star of the TV show 'The … [Read more...]

November 30, 2010 – Tesla: Sell the Sizzle, Then Buy the Steak

Featured Trades: (TESLA MOTORS), (TSLA) 2) Tesla: Sell the Sizzle, Then Buy the Steak. So far, the most successful thing Tesla Motors (TSLA) has done is sell stock. The IPO was an absolute blowout success, far and away the best this year, with book building at $14-$16, the size increased by 20%, pricing at $17, and then trading up to $32 on the third day, giving it an … [Read more...]

November 30, 2010 – Pssst! Have You Heard About’..?

Featured Trades: (RHODIUM), (AAUKY.PK), (PAL), (SWC)   3) Pssst! Have You Heard About'.? When I was at the New York Hard Asset Investment Conference weeks ago, every hour someone would stop by my table, mention the word 'rhodium', and walk away. My interest piqued, I decided to look into this mysterious metal. Rhodium (Rh) is in fact the rarest precious … [Read more...]

November 30, 2010 – A Poolside Report from City Center

Featured Trades: (LAS VEGAS CITY CENTER) 4) A Poolside Report from City Center. I write this to you from my poolside cabana at the Aria at City Center, the newest and hottest hotel in Las Vegas, against a background of blaring rock music and helicopters buzzing overhead every five minutes. It's amazing what passes for a swim suit these days, and some of the tattoos I … [Read more...]

November 30, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'People are starting to feel better here. They don't feel like they have to have Dr. Kevorkian on speed dial anymore,' said Scott Nation, president of Nation Shares. … [Read more...]

November 26, 2010 – Don’t Hold Your Breath for Residential Real Estate

Featured Trades: (RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE)   1) Don't Hold Your Breath for Residential Real Estate. Every few weeks I get a warm and fuzzy feeling when I see my old house for sale in the Wall Street Journal. I'm sure you've seen it. It's the 8,500 square foot, four bedroom, seven bathroom white elephant perched on a mountain peak, with a dramatic waterfall … [Read more...]

November 26, 2010 – Watch Out for Those Dinosaur Turds

Featured Trades: (DINOSAUR TURDS) 3) Watch Out for Those Dinosaur Turds. The dinosaur bone market has crunched. Once a favorite collectable of high flying hedge fund managers, the prices of everything from tyrannosaurus rex to brontosaurus fossils have skidded. A recent auction of a triceratops skeleton failed to reach its minimum bid of $1 million. Even prices for … [Read more...]

November 26, 2010 – How US Job Losses Will End

Featured Trades: (STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT), (FXI), (EWY), (VNM), (PIN) 4) How US Job Losses Will End. I am not in the habit of regularly lifting data out of the Wall Street Journal, but even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. I was tempted by the comparative Asian wage data they published, which I just have to get into my data base. Textile workers earn … [Read more...]

November 26, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'The really big problem here is that we have 10% unemployment now. If you drop it 1/2% a year for ten years, we're not going to reach full employment before we reach the next recession,' said Lachmann Achutman, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute … [Read more...]

November 24, 2010 – The San Francisco Hard Asset Conference

Featured Trades: (SAN FRANCISCO HARD ASSET CONFERENCE), (GOLD), (SILVER), (PLATINUM), (PALLADIUM), (GLD), (SLV), (PPLT), (PALL)   1) The San Francisco Hard Asset Conference. Attending the San Francisco Hard Asset Investment Conference this week, I learned that the people who inhabit this world are different from you and I. They camp in remote, mosquito … [Read more...]

November 24, 2010 – Taking a Nissan Leaf Out for a Spin

Featured Trades: (NISSAN LEAF), (NSANY), (F) 2) Taking a Nissan Leaf Out for a Spin. After five years of waiting, I finally got to drive the dream car of the future, the 2011 all-electric Nissan Leaf at the San Francisco auto show. Pulling a few strings with CEO Carlos Ghosn landed me a VIP test drive. It was one of the most surreal driving experiences that I have ever … [Read more...]

November 24, 2010 – What About Asset Allocation?

Featured Trades: (ASSET ALLOCATION) 3) What About Asset Allocation? Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day which I absolutely cannot answer. The reason is simple: no two investors are alike. The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $10 million, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, in the top or the bottom … [Read more...]

November 24, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'The banks are effectively zombie banks, because their consumer and commercial assets are not growing and their fee businesses are getting crushed. You're looking at very low return vehicles,' said Meredith Whitney, CEO of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group. … [Read more...]

November 22, 2010 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Interviews Vivian Lewis of Global-Investing on Hedge Fund Radio

Featured Trades: (VIVIAN LEWIS ON HEDGE FUND RADIO), (PT), (EWZ), (TF), (UUP), (EUO), (PLND), (ECH), (PIN), (FXI), (GIFD), (PCY), (CYB) 1) Vivian Lewis of Global-Investing on Hedge Fund Radio. I managed to catch up with Vivian Lewis, the globetrotting publisher of http://www.global-investing.com/ , one of the oldest international investment newsletters in the industry. … [Read more...]

November 22, 2010 – The Tax Rate Fallacy

Featured Trades: (THE 'TAX RATE' FALLACY) 2) The Tax Rate Fallacy. When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away, and pretend you never heard of them. This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system, or is deliberately trying to deceive or mislead … [Read more...]

November 22, 2010 – Breaking Up With Rare Earths

Featured Trades: (RARE EARTHS), (MCP), (AVARF), (LYSCF) 3) Breaking Up With Rare Earths. I'm sorry to tell you this Rare Earths, but I have decided that it is time for me to move on. When I first met you at the Hard Assets Conference last May, you were the greatest cheap date around. You were thrilled when I took you out to dinner at the Olive Garden, and even … [Read more...]

November 22, 2010 – Business is Booming at ‘Ruff Times’

Featured Trades: (GLD), (SLV), (CCJ) 4) Business is Booming at 'Ruff Times'. Following Howard Ruff for the last 33 years has always been eye opening, if not entertaining. The irascible Mormon is the publisher of Ruff Times (http://www.rufftimes.com / ), one of the oldest investment letters in the business, and one of the original worshipers of hard assets. The great … [Read more...]

November 18, 2010 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Interviews Chuck Hughes of Legacy Publishing LLC on Hedge Fund Radio

Featured Trades: (SPX) 1) Charles Hughes on Hedge Fund Radio. My guest on Hedge Fund Radio this week is star options trader, Charles Hughes, of Legacy Publishing LLC. Charles has developed his own highly profitable and disciplined trading strategy which he markets under the names of the Market Volatility Profits Secrets, The Global PowerTrend System, and The Wealth … [Read more...]

November 18, 2010 – Note to Los Angeles Based Hedge Fund Managers

2) Note to Los Angeles Based Hedge Fund Managers and Traders. I will be available for a limited number of one-on-one meetings with individual hedge fund managers and traders at their offices during my upcoming visit to Los Angeles on December 3, 2010. This is an opportunity for me to privately consult on your strategy and risk control procedures, praise you for your wisdom, … [Read more...]

November 18, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'The commodities are overdone here. But if we get a break next year, I would think that is a great buying opportunity,' said Jeremy Grantham, the legendary founder of money manager Grantham, Mayo, Von Otterloo. … [Read more...]

November 17, 2010 – The Collapse of the Yen: The Party Has Started

SPECIAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DOUBLE ISSUE 2011 FORECASTS   Featured Trades: (FXY), (YCS) Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust ETF ProShares Ultra Short Yen ETF 1) The Collapse of the Yen: The Party Has Started. 'Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.' I'm sure Shakespeare would have come up with this line of iambic pentameter if he were a … [Read more...]

November 17, 2010 – Has The Euro Turned?

SPECIAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DOUBLE ISSUE 2011 FORECASTS   Featured Trades: (FXE), (EUO) Currency Shares Euro Trust ETF ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF 2) Has The Euro Turned? The call that a turn in the dollar was imminent by Brown Brothers Harriman's Mark Chandler is looking more prescient by the day (click here for the call). September and October … [Read more...]

November 17, 2010 – Why I'm Singing 'Waltzing Mathilda' in the Shower

SPECIAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DOUBLE ISSUE 2011 FORECASTS Featured Trades: (FXA) Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust ETF 3) Why I'm Singing 'Waltzing Mathilda' in the Shower. If you want to participate in the global carry trade in its purest form, take a look at the Australian dollar. The central bank has been the first and fastest to … [Read more...]

November 17, 2010 – The Loonie Takes Flight

SPECIAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DOUBLE ISSUE 2011 FORECASTS   Featured Trades: (FXC) Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust ETF 4) The Loonie Takes Flight. Many of the same arguments that make the Aussie so attractive on a long term basis also apply to the Canadian dollar, which forex traders affectionately call the 'loonie'. The Bank of Canada has been … [Read more...]

November 17, 2010 – Play China's Yuan From the Long Side

SPECIAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DOUBLE ISSUE 2011 FORECASTS Featured Trades: (CYB) Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund ETF 5) Play China's Yuan From the Long Side. Any doubts that China's Yuan is a huge screaming buy should have been dispelled when news came out that it had displaced Germany as the world's largest exporter. The Middle … [Read more...]

November 15, 2010 – Tremors in the Market

Featured Trades: (TREMORS IN THE MARKET)     1) Tremors in the Market. Yes! There is risk in the market! That was the hard lesson learned by latecomers to Ben Bernanke's quantitative easing party who, having watched the prices of all assets climb relentlessly for the last 2½ months, jumped in at the end and got burned. Perhaps they didn't want to be the … [Read more...]

November 15, 2010 – Taking Toyota Out for a Spin

Featured Trades: (TOYOTA), (TM) 2) Taking Toyota Out for a Spin. After silver's meteoric rise last week to nearly $30, I decided to take some profits and launch my own personal stimulus program. So I cashed in a chunk of my position, shoveled $50,000 in cash into a backpack, and sent a friend off to buy a new car. As the price of the white metal soared past $27, $28, … [Read more...]

November 15, 2010 – Nuclear Energy Makes a Comeback

Featured Trades: (NUCLEAR POWER), (NLR), (CCJ) 3) Nuclear Energy Makes a Comeback. Better drag your leisure suits, bell bottoms, and Bee Gee's records out the attic. The seventies are about to enjoy a rebirth. The nuclear industry, which has been comatose since the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979, is gearing up for one of the greatest comebacks of all time. … [Read more...]

November 12, 2010 – Only Three Weeks to Go Until the Los Angeles Strategy Lunch

Featured Trades: (LOS ANGELES STRATEGY LUNCH) 2) Only Three Weeks to Go Until the Los Angeles Strategy Lunch. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update in Los Angeles on Friday, December 3, 2010. A three course lunch will be followed by a 45-minute PowerPoint presentation and a 30-minute question and answer period. I'll give you … [Read more...]

November 12, 2010 – Has the Euro Turned?

Featured Trades: (HAS THE EURO TURNED?), (FXE), (EUO) ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF Currency Shares Euro Trust 3) Has The Euro Turned? The call that a turn in the dollar was imminent by Brown Brothers Harriman's Mark Chandler is looking more prescient by the day (click here for the call). September and October was all about pricing in Ben Bernanke's quantitative … [Read more...]

November 12, 2010 – The Cisco Shock

Featured Trades: (CISCO), (CSCO) 4) The Cisco Shock. When a great company announces a surprise, temporary setback that sends the stock plunging, I am drawn like a starving great white shark to fresh blood in the water. All it took was a matching of earnings expectations for this great technology firm to crater 13% in minutes, triggering stop losses, the gnashing of … [Read more...]

November 11, 2010 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Interviews Karl Denninger of Market Ticker

Featured Trades: (KARL DENNINGER ON HEDGE FUND RADIO), (ONLY BUY COMPANIES YOU HATE), (SPX), (INDU), (BAC), (C ), (JPM), (WFC), (AAPL), (GOOG), (QQQQ), (BP), (GS), (C), (PFE), (MO)   1) Karl Denninger of Market Ticker on Hedge Fund Radio. Karl Denninger of Market Ticker thinks there is a secondary banking crisis around the corner that will trigger a … [Read more...]

November 11, 2010 – Only Buy Companies You Hate

Featured Trades: (ONLY BUY COMPANIES YOU HATE), (SPX), (INDU), (BAC), (C ), (JPM), (WFC), (AAPL), (GOOG), (QQQQ), (BP), (GS), (C), (PFE), (MO) 2) Only Buy Companies You Hate. The Wall Street Journal published one of the funniest investment strategy pieces I have ever read. Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams argues that you should invest in companies you hate because … [Read more...]

November 11, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'Parabolic moves end up creating parabolic corrections. This is going to end badly. It's not a matter of if, but when.' said hedge fund manager Mark Fisher of MBF Asset Management. … [Read more...]

November 9, 2010 – Where to Play QEII in Europe

Featured Trades: (POLAND), (PLND), (EPOL) 2) Where to Play QEII in Europe. In one of the worst timed ETF launches of the year, Van Eck brought out the Market Vectors Poland ETF (PLND) in November, 2009, just on the eve of the Euro collapse. iShares followed with their MSCI Poland Investable Market ETF (EPOL) at the end of May. Since then, it has been off to the … [Read more...]

November 9, 2010 – You No Longer Have to Be Crazy to Buy Gold

Featured Trades: (GOLD), (GLD), (ABX) 3) You No Longer Have to Be Crazy to Buy Gold. The good news is that you no longer have to be crazy to buy gold. Until recently, certifiable believers chasing the barbaric relic were driven by a host of urban legends and wild conspiracy theories which frequently appear on the Internet, such as the imminent bankruptcy of the US … [Read more...]

November 8, 2010 – It’s Off to the Races With Emerging Markets

Featured Trades: (EMERGING MARKETS), (EWZ), (RSX), (PIN), (FXI) Brazil iShares ETF Market Vectors Russia ETF PowerShares India ETF iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF 1) It's Off to the Races With Emerging Markets. Ben Bernanke's unprecedented announcement that he is buying $600 billion in medium dated Treasury securities is tantamount to the government ordering … [Read more...]

November 8, 2010 – The Price of Oil is Going Up

Featured Trades: (OIL), (XOM), (OXY), (COP) 2) The Price of Oil is Going Up. The free Ben Bernanke put also applies to the commodities markets. I received another scratchy, crackling cell phone call from my drilling buddy in the Texas natural gas fields today. You could almost choke from the dust on the line. He told me that the BP Gulf disaster was turning the … [Read more...]

November 8 2010 – Load the Boat With Technology Stocks

Featured Trades: (TECHNOLOGY STOCKS), (INTC), (CSCO) (IBM), (JNPR), (JDSU), (SNDK), (MU), (ASML), (XLK), (QQQQ), (ROM) Technology Select Sector SPDR 3) Load the Boat With Technology Stocks. There is one sector that hedge funds have an absolute laser focus on in this Goldilocks environment, and that is technology stocks. This is where have been pouncing at the first … [Read more...]

November 5, 2010 – Come to the December 3rd Los Angeles Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (LOS ANGELES STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   1) Come to the December 3rd Los Angeles Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Los Angeles on Friday, December 3, 2010. A three course lunch will be followed by a 45 minute PowerPoint presentation and a 30 minute question … [Read more...]

November 5, 2010 – The One Bright Spot in Real Estate

Featured Trades: (MULTIFAMILY DWELLINGS) 2) The One Bright Spot in Real Estate. After my weekly dump on residential real estate, I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this beleaguered market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and that of the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to … [Read more...]

November 5, 2010 – I’m Singing “Waltzing Mathilda” Again

Featured Trades: (AUSTRALIA), (FXA), (FXE), (EWA) Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust ETF PowerShares Indio Portfolio ETF Currency Shares Euro Dollar Trust ETF 3) I'm Singing 'Waltzing Mathilda' Again. Many readers made a killing last February when I recommended they buy Australian dollars and short the euro against it (click here for the call). A lot of the … [Read more...]

November 5, 2010 – Silver Blasts Through to a New 30-Year High

Featured Trades: (SILVER), (SLV), (CDE), (SLW), (HL) SPDR Gold Trust Shares iShares Silver Trust 4) Silver Blasts Through to a New 30-Year High.  Those transfixed by gold (GLD) topping the $1,368 level again have been missing the real action in silver (SLV). The white metal has soared 45% to $18.46 since the July low, compared to a more modest 18% move for the … [Read more...]

November 4, 2010 – My Analysis of the Election

SPECIAL ELECTION ISSUE Featured Trades: (MY ANALYSIS OF THE ELECTION) 1) My Analysis of the Election. Won the World Series, but lost the Speaker of the House. I guess San Francisco can't have everything. My expectation that demographic trends would limit Democratic losses turned out to be wrong. The kids stayed home and texted each other, partied, … [Read more...]

November 4, 2010 – What The Election Means for Economic Policy

SPECIAL ELECTION ISSUE Featured Trades: (WHAT THIS MEANS FOR ECONOMIC POLICY) 2) What The Election Means for Economic Policy. Let's put the economic polices the voters chose under the microscope and see what we got. It is not a pretty picture. The bottom line is that my scenario of a lethargic 2-2.5% GDP growth rate continues for the foreseeable future. … [Read more...]

November 4, 2010 – What the Election Means for the Markets

SPECIAL ELECTION ISSUE Featured Trades: (WHAT THE ELECTION MEANS FOR THE MARKETS), (SPY), (TBT), (YCS) S&P 500 SPDR ETF ProShares Ultra Short Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF ProShares Ultra Short Yen ETF 3) What the Election Means for the Markets. Who really won this election? I did! It is setting up trends in the global financial markets that will be … [Read more...]

November 3, 2010 – How Big is QEII?

Featured Trades: (HOW BIG IS QEII?) 1) How Big is QEII? Speculation is rife in the Treasury markets on if quantitative easing has already started, and if it has, how big it is, or whether it will happen at all? Goldman Sachs has opened more than a few eyes when they put their $2 trillion forecast out there. The low-end estimate is $100 million between Fed meetings … [Read more...]

November 3, 2010 – Palladium Hits a Seven Year High

Featured Trades: (PALLADIUM), (PALL) ETFS Physical Palladium Shares ETF 2) Palladium Hits a Seven Year High. Palladium has soared by 60% since my recommendation in January, hitting a seven year high yesterday, making it one of my better calls of the year (click here for the piece).  Double dippers beware! Moves like this by industrial commodities do not occur in the … [Read more...]

November 3, 2010 – From Junk to Gold

Featured Trades: (JUNK BONDS), (JNK) SPDR Lehman High Yield Bond ETF 3) From Junk to Gold. Investors who bought beat up jalopies at the going out of business sale 18 months ago, ended up getting delivered a Rolls Royce. I piled readers into the junk bond ETF (JNK) 18 months ago because the market was discounting a future default rate of 17%, which I thought was … [Read more...]

November 3, 2010 – Special Subscription Offer From The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

4) SPECIAL SUBSCRIPTION OFFER FROM THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER. Any Texas residents who take out a two year subscription to The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader this week will get a free 'San Francisco Giants World Series Champions' knit hat. For proof of residence, please send me a stuffed armadillo. Cheap Chinese imports not accepted. There is a rumor on the Internet … [Read more...]

November 2, 2010 – Catching Up With Charles Nenner

Featured Trades: (CHARLES NENNER)   1) Catching Up With Charles Nenner. I managed to catch up with my friend, technical analyst to the stars, Charles Nenner, and quiz him about his recent relative silence. It has been many months since he predicted that the yen was going to soar from ¥95 to ¥80, that you should dump your longs before a plunge in the S&P 500 … [Read more...]

November 2, 2010 – The Treasury Bond Dilemma

Featured Trades: (THE TREASURY BOND DILEMMA), (TBT), (IEF) 2) The Treasury Bond Dilemma. There is a very interesting divergence going on in the Treasury bond market which readers should be aware of. The leveraged short ETF for long dated paper, the (TBT), looks like it bottomed in the end of August, indicating that the collapse I have been predicting has already been … [Read more...]

November 2, 2010 – There is Less Than Meets the Eye in Q3 GDP

Featured Trades: (Q3 GDP) 3) There is Less Than Meets the Eye in Q3 GDP. There was much celebration that the US economy managed a 2.0% growth rate in Q3, sending double dippers to the dust bin of history, where they rightfully belong. Of course, you already knew this was going to happen last January, because this is exactly the number I predicted then in my 2010 Asset … [Read more...]

November 1, 2010 – An Evening With Hillary Clinton

Featured Trades: (AN EVENING WITH HILLARY CLINTON) 1) An Evening With Hillary Clinton. When Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton passed through San Francisco last week I jumped at the chance to get an up to date overview on American foreign policy. The former first lady was making a brief San Francisco stop off on her way to meet leaders on an extended Asian … [Read more...]

November 1, 2010 – Is the Rare Earth ETF Calling a Market Top?

Featured Trades: (RARE EARTHS), (REMX), (MCP), (LYSCF), (AVARF) 2) Is the Rare Earth ETF Calling a Market Top? It looks like the Van Eck mutual fund group reads the Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, because last week they launched the first ETF (REMX) dedicated to rare earth and strategic metals. The move comes on the heels of incredibly bullish developments in this … [Read more...]

November 1, 2010 – Pricking the Bubble in the Yen

Featured Trades: (JAPANESE YEN), (FXY), (YCS) 3) Pricking the Bubble in the Yen. Analysts have been puzzled by the relentless appreciation of the Japanese yen, which went out at ¥80.40 on Friday, and seems poised to break out to the ¥70 handle and an all time high. Having written the authoritative tome on the Japanese banking system 30 years ago (it's in the Library of … [Read more...]