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DougD

Bidding Up the Market

Newsletter

A few years ago, I went to a charity fund raiser at San Francisco?s priciest jewelry store, Shreve & Co., where the well-heeled men bid for dinner with the local high society beauties, dripping in diamonds and Channel No. 5. Well fueled with champagne, I jumped into a spirited bidding war for one of the Bay Area?s premier hotties. Suffice to say, she has a sports stadium named after her.

The bids soared to $11,000, $12,000, $13,000. After all, it was for a good cause. But when it hit $13,200, I suddenly developed lockjaw. Later, the sheepish winner with a severe case of buyer?s remorse came to me and offered his date back to me for $13,200. I said ?no thanks.? $12,000, $11,000, $10,000? I passed.

The current altitude of the stock market reminds me of that evening. The higher it goes, the more people love it, until they don?t. As the bidding becomes more frenzied, not an hour passes without another technical report hitting my inbox screaming that the market is overbought, high risk, and cruising for a bruising.

When I did the research for my webinar this week, I had to struggle to find a single positive economic data point over the previous two weeks. The only one I found was the weekly jobless claims, which fell 5,000. Well guess what? This morning jobless claims rose by 13,000. That was the last fundamental economic point the bulls could hang their hats on.

If the current rally fails in the next few days, it could set up the head and shoulders top needed to drive managers more aggressively to the sell side.? After all, they have to be seeing the same thing I am, that the economy runs off a cliff at the end of the year.

For a more sobering view of the market, take a look at the two charts below for the Dow Average. If we don?t clear the old support at 13,000 in the next few days, which is now resistance, we may have the makings of a serious head and shoulders top setting up. The fact that this is happening in the run up to May makes them even more interesting.

Who was the hottie in question, you may ask? She shall remain nameless, since she is now happily married to a tech titan and with kids, and gentlemen don?t talk. Suffice it to say, she has a San Francisco Bay Area sports stadium named after her. I?ll let you figure it out.

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/300px-Stanfordstadium.jpg 225 300 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-12 23:04:462012-04-12 23:04:46Bidding Up the Market
DougD

Budget Cuts Hit the Wild Animal Market

Diary

In case you missed it, the second hand animal market has crashed. Forced to slash budgets by cash starved municipalities, the nation?s public zoos have been paring back their collections of living exhibits.

The Washington Zoo is trying to offload a 7,000 pound hippopotamus; while the San Francisco Zoo is short some tigers after one ate a visitor and had to be shot. The Portland Zoo was able to liquidate a portfolio of lemurs only because of the popularity of the recent DreamWorks? ?Madagascar 2? animated film.

When zoos are forced to economize, they downsize the big eaters first to save on feed costs; hence, the absence of elephants in San Francisco (Could this be a political gesture?). In fact, zoo staff were recently busted for illegally harvesting acacia on private property, a favorite food of giraffes, which grows wild here after its introduction a century ago. The hardest to move? Baltimore has been trying to sell its snake collection for two years now. Talk about an illiquid market. Maybe they should try AIG. Snake derivatives anyone?

 

Pink Slips for Tony?

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/siberian-tiger-6.jpg 400 315 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-12 23:03:372012-04-12 23:03:37Budget Cuts Hit the Wild Animal Market
DougD

Dinner With Elliot Spitzer

Diary

I couldn?t for the life of me figure out why New York?s former governor and federal prosecutor, Elliot Spitzer, wanted to invite me to dinner. He wasn?t flogging a book or promoting a movie, and he certainly wasn?t running for office again. But I went anyway, thinking perhaps the notorious ?Client No.9? might let me peek at his famous black book.

Elliot, who showed up wearing a classic New York blue pin stripped suit that seems oddly out of place in San Francisco, is currently running his family?s commercial real estate business. He told me that the advantages that the US enjoyed over the rest of the world in 1945, such as a monopoly in skilled labor, are now long gone. The driver of the world economy has switched from America to Asia in the nineties.

As a result, income distribution here has morphed from a bell shaped curve to a barbell, with both the wealthy and the poor increasing in numbers, squeezing the middle class. The financial crisis compressed 30 years of change into two, taking us from libertarian Ayn Rand to pay czar Ken Feinberg in one giant leap.

Having cut his teeth prosecuting the Gambino crime family in the eighties, Elliot had some views on the need for more regulation. We only need to enforce the laws on the books, not pass new ones. The ?white collarization? of organized crime has been a secular trend since the sixties. He said the ethical lapses in the run up to the crash were best characterized by a quote from Merrill Lynch?s Jack Robins; ?What used to be a conflict of interest is now a synergy.?

AIG getting 100 cents on the dollar was the greatest scam in history. The US did not extract a high enough price from highly paid executives and shareholders of financial institutions for failure, and should have let more firms go under. As for his own scandal last year, Elliot admitted that he failed, that his flaws were made publicly apparent, and that other politicians should be smarter than he was.

Although Elliot had some good ideas, I was still puzzled over what this was all about as I ploughed through my creme brulee. Perhaps the governor has a pathological need to be in front of the spotlight, even at the risk of flaming out. And no luck with the black book.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/creme.jpg 240 320 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-12 23:02:372012-04-12 23:02:37Dinner With Elliot Spitzer
DougD

April 13, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?People that have complete disdain for government intervention in the economy and markets of the West have complete faith in nine guys in a room being able to figure out the very complex and rapidly growing Chinese economy,? said hedge fund manager Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates, about foreign investors? unlimited faith in the Middle Kingdom?s politburo

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/flag.jpg 150 150 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-12 23:01:212012-04-12 23:01:21April 13, 2012 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up - (BA) April 12, 2012

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/investing-a-z-stock-market-game-for-students.jpg 240 320 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-04-12 12:14:592012-04-12 12:14:59Follow Up - (BA) April 12, 2012
DougD

Date, Don?t Marry Those Short Positions

Diary

Note to self. Don't do your midnight pee next to the bear box. They're called that for a reason. And I'm sorry that my shouting at the hungry, six foot tall black bear standing in front of me, no doubt attracted by my Cheetos, hot dogs, and marshmallows, woke up the campers at the 57 surrounding sites.

Of course it was too dark to find my bear spray. My ursine challenger eventually saw the merit of my logic that the neighbor's bacon stuffed ice chest was more appealing than me, and lumbered off into the darkness. Such was the conclusion of my camping trip on the California coast last weekend.

I am now dealing with a bear of a different sort, the financial kind. Never have I seen such a disconnect between the markets and the real economy. We have a 4% GDP stock market and a 2% GDP real economy.

All of a sudden the world has gotten expensive. Stock prices have been levitated by vapor in a faith based rally. Cost cutting, not sales growth, has artificially boosted earnings above subterranean forecasts. Commodity prices are now rolling over because of soured speculation and stockpiling and a dearth of real end consumption. This year?s rise has been entirely driven by multiple expansion, from 11 to 14 times earnings. Will this multiple expand further when earnings disappoint, as Alcoa just did with a 69% YOY drop in profits?

I am using the big up days to buy short dated out-of- the-money puts, which if I get things right should double in value. That's because I keep my favorite quote from John Maynard Keynes pasted to my monitor, ?Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.? Sure we're going down more, but zero interest rates won't let us crash. Date your short positions, don?t marry them. This is not the big one. For that, you?ll have to wait until next year.

 

 

Date, Don?t Marry Those Short Positions

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Marry.jpg 321 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-11 23:03:092012-04-11 23:03:09Date, Don?t Marry Those Short Positions
DougD

Taking profits on Apple

Newsletter

I am getting a lot of emails about how to come out of the $450-$480 Apple bull call spread, which I advised readers to go into on March 2. Now that we are deep in the money, what is the best way to take a profit?

Well, the first thing for me is to say congratulations. My expectation that Apple stock would continue grinding up has paid off handsomely. The entire position expires next week, on April 20. So the best thing to do here is nothing. You are so far in the money that you are almost certain to expire at the maximum profit point.

So just leave it alone. You don?t have to do anything. The $450 and $480 calls will cancel out each other, and your broker should post a cash credit to your account the following Monday, thus freeing up the margin requirement.

If you try to come out here the execution costs could unnecessarily eat up a chunk of your profit. Since there are two call options involved, that means paying a double trading spread. There is no need for you to pay for a bigger yacht for your broker this early in the year.

The only reason to come out earlier is that you think Apple might fall $150 in the next seven trading days. Given that the Justice Department announced an antitrust action against the company this morning an only knocked the stock down $10, I think this is unlikely.

Your net profit on this position should be $1,855, or? $1.86% for the notional $100,000 portfolio. I include my calculations below. Well done.

Execution

March $450 call cost?????... $97.60
March $480 call premium earned?-$70.25

Net Cost???????.........?. $27.35

Profit Calculation at Expiration

Expiration value???????..$30.00
Purchase cost ?..??????. . $27.35

Net Profit????????.??.$2.65

Total profit = ($2.65 X 100 X 7) = $1,855 = $1.86% for the notional $100,000 portfolio.

Thanks, Steve

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-11 23:02:332012-04-11 23:02:33Taking profits on Apple
DougD

April 12, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

My problem with the stock market is that I fail to see who the incremental buyer will be to take the S&P 500 to 1,500. It?s not going to be the retail investor who has been hit with a 34% drop in home prices, two market crashes in the last decade, and a flash crash while their incomes are not keeping up with inflation. The last thing on their minds right now is to buy stocks,? said Doug Kass of hedge fund Seabreeze Partners.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/The_Thinking_Man_6230651_std.jpg 311 299 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-11 23:01:592012-04-11 23:01:59April 12, 2012 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (BA) April 11, 2012

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-04-11 15:19:522012-04-11 15:19:52Trade Alert - (BA) April 11, 2012
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (IWM) April 11, 2012

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-04-11 12:00:402012-04-11 12:00:40Trade Alert - (IWM) April 11, 2012
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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