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DougD

Farewell to Barton Biggs

Diary

It is with a great sense of sorrow that I learned of the passing of industry legend, Barton Biggs. He was 79. I was speaking to him only a few weeks ago when I passed through New York for my strategy seminar, attempting to decipher the medium term trends for these fractious and conflicting markets. It is a reminder of how temporary and fleeting life can be.

Barton was a pioneer in the international investment arena and founding father of the modern hedge fund industry. He became famous for calling market bottoms in 1982, 1987, and 2008. He was a colorful and masterful writer who regularly titillated investors with his iconoclastic and out of consensus ideas. Sound familiar?

Barton grew up as a member of the East coast establishment, his father being the chief investment officer of the Bank of New York. He graduated from Yale in 1955 in creative writing and then did a brief stint in the Marine Corps. He next turned to Wall Street and joined E.F. Hutton as a junior broker (remember ?When E.F. Hutton speaks, people listen??).

In 1965 he spun off to create Fairfield Partners, one of the early long/short US equity hedge funds. After several prosperous years, the fund crashed and burned with the collapse of the ?Nifty 50?. He later told me that was when he first learned of the six standard deviation move. ?The biggest mistake you can make in a bear market is to cover your shorts too soon? he said.

In the mid seventies, he was recruited by a small, white shoed, private partnership called Morgan Stanley & Co. to build up an asset management division from scratch. Barton became my friend and mentor when I joined the firm in the early eighties, and I spent the better part of the decade debating every pebble of the investment landscape with him.

Together, we fought a major uphill battle trying to convince a cautious and blinkered management that the firm?s future lies in international and emerging market equities. Getting them to focus on Toyota and Matsushita instead of General Motors and IBM, we felt like Sisyphus endlessly rolling the boulder up a steep mountain.

Barton persevered, and in the following three decades the business grew to $1 trillion in assets along with a world-class global research department. After Morgan Stanley went public, he became a billionaire in his own right. I bailed to start my own hedge fund a few years later.

In 2003, Barton left (MS) to start a new hedge fund, Traxis Partners. We all thought he was crazy at the time, as it was the last thing you would expect a 71 year old to do. This is a business where 30 year olds regularly drop dead of heart attacks from the stress. That was pure Barton. I heard at one point he reached $5 billion in assets.

He became a regular fixture in the media, offering his wisdom and insights in his characteristic gravelly voice. Always the independent thinker, I know he voted for Obama in the last election, at odds with much of Wall Street.

To listen to my last extended interview with Barton where he gave his global view a few years ago on Hedge Fund Radio, please click here. He was tiring even then, and we had to record the show in 15-minute segments so he could rest in between sessions. But he made the extra effort to give my readers an edge on the market. That was pure Barton too.

Barton will be missed by many.

 

 

Sysiphus

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DougD

US Earnings Are Headed Down the Drain

Newsletter

Remember the $2 trillion US corporate cash mountain that you have heard so much about? Well, it is finally starting to shrink. Have they started reinvesting profits in America? Are they hiring more people? Did they finally get those tax breaks they were begging for? Have they dramatically increased dividends and share buy backs or returned to acquisitions to boost earnings?

Well, not exactly. The cash mountain is shrinking, but for all the wrong reasons. They are just not earning as much money as they used to. According to data released by S&P Capital IQ, US corporate cash flow turned negative in Q1, 2012 for the first time since 2008. It almost certainly worsened in Q2.

The harsh truth is that earnings are falling because of collapsing revenues, which at the rate reported so far in this season look to come in at about 1% YOY. Adjust for inflation, and these figures turn negative. This means that the 5.4% YOY earnings growth we are seeing, which I predicted all the way back in my January annual asset revue, are being achieved through aggressive cost cutting.

Managers aren?t hiring more, they?re firing more, which explains our stubbornly high headline 8.2% unemployment rate. This can?t last. You can only eat your seed corn for so long before you go hungry.

This deterioration, which has been under reported and unappreciated, has economists slashing their forecasts for US GDP growth. It is clear that consumers are returning to their bomb shelters. I recently chopped my own forecast from 2% to 1.5%, and even that could start to look high in a matter of weeks. All of this sets up the scenario which I have been pounding the table about in my strategy seminars in Chicago, New York, London, Paris, Frankfurt, and Zermatt, which I have entitled ?The Crash of 2013?.

None of this makes a convincing case for buying equities right now. It makes the current 14 multiple for the S&P 500 look positively pricey. If there was ever a case for selling rips in the indexes it is now. Keep your fastest finger on your mouse ready to buy puts on the (SPX), (IWM), and (QQQ), and the bear ETF (SDS), and (SH).

 

 

 

US Companies are Eating Their Seed Corn ?

 

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DougD

Report From London, Part II

Diary

I write this to you from my double suite on the Orient Express crossing the Swiss Alps. My manservant, Charles, is off fetching a cup of tea and steam pressing my white dinner jacket for tonight?s formal dinner.

My first night at the Naval & Military Club in London, a group of British Army officers just back from Afghanistan, and their dates, hosted a blowout black tie homecoming party, complete with disc jockey and disco ball. While singing a drunken and rautious ?Rule Britannia? at 4:00 AM we maxed out the amplifiers and ended up blowing the power, not only for our building, but for the entire block.

Suddenly, our 18th century building was plunged back to the 18th century, meaning no lights, Internet, or flushing toilets. Candelabras solved the first problem, and the Financial Times the second, but when nature called, I had to retire to the pub across the street. Each time I did so, I enjoyed a pint of Fuller?s London Pride, not sure if I was making my problem better or worse. Two days later, two truck sized diesel generators on loan from the army magically showed up and solved the power problem, and we returned to the 20th century.

 

 

The Globe Theater is a magnificent reproduction of the original, which burned down in 1613 during a canon during scene in Henry VIII (click here for the link at http://www.shakespearesglobe.com/ ). Its thatched roof, open air seats, and 12 inch roughhewn oak beams led me to expect The Bard from Stratford-upon-Avon to walk out any moment. Actors tore through the standing crowds, reciting lines, and embracing a startled few theater goers. Half way through As You Like It, I realized that the devotees sitting next to me were mouthing the lines. They had memorized the entire script.

 

 

One afternoon I asked a somewhat doddering old taxi driver to take me to Kensington Palace, who seemed quite impressed. He drove me directly to Harry and Kate?s private entrance. After giving me the gimlet eye, Scotland Yard directed us to the correct entrance for the tourists. I try not to cause international incidents when on vacation, and this time I came close.

England definitely did not show its best face when I walked out of a comedy club into Leicester Square at 2:00 AM. The women were so drunk that they walked barefoot across the vomit covered pavement, unable to walk in high heels.

Another day found me at Christie?s auction house for a private viewing of John James Audubon?s spectacular Birds of America. The multi-volume set was in mint condition, the colors as bright as the day they were printed. Only 70 of the original print run of 140 in 1838 are known to exist. One sold for $11.5 million last year, making it the world?s second most valuable book after the Gutenberg Bible.

 

 

My last morning in London found me desperately hailing a taxi in a torrential downpour. The taxi Gods smiled upon me, and I was soon barreling down the streets of Piccadilly and Westminster on the way to Victoria Station. It seems that a 20 pound tip can move mountains here. I arrived with more than enough time for a pre-prandial glass of Champagne before boarding the Orient Express.

Report from London, Part III will be continued tomorrow.

John Thomas
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

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DougD

July 25, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?The biggest mistake you can make in a bear market is to cover your shorts too soon? he said.

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DougD

How the Fed Will Trigger the Next Crash

Newsletter

Over the last two months, I have witnessed one of the least convincing rallies in the US stock market in recent memory. Looking at the chart for the S&P 500 below you can clearly see a modest, low conviction, declining volume rally in an ever-narrowing channel. This is further confirmed by the chart of the NYSE advance/decline ratio that is failing at the March support level, which has now become resistance.

Look at any other asset class and it is flashing warning lights. Ten year Treasury bonds are within a hair?s breadth of blasting through to an all time low yield below 1.42%. We all know from hard earned experience that stocks and bonds never go up together for more than short periods, and that it is almost always the debt markets that get the longer-term trend right.

That flight to safety currency, the Japanese yen, is also screaming at us that trouble is just around the corner. It made it to the ? 77 handle, or over $125.00 in the (FXY) in recent days. People are certainly not buying the Japanese currency because they like Japan?s long-term fundamentals and demographics, which are the worst in the world. Nor are they buying for the yield, which is zero.

It appears that stocks have rallied because traders believe that the Federal Reserve will launch QE3 at its upcoming August 1 meeting. Bonds have been rallying because they think it won?t. Only one of these markets is right. That means the Fed won?t be able to take further easing action until early next year, well after the presidential election. By then, it will have every reason in the world to launch QE3, with the ?fiscal cliff? at the top of the list. That?s why Ben Bernanke is not inclined to waste ammo now.

In the meantime, The US, China, and Japan are all slowing and Europe is falling off a cliff. I was speaking to a hedge fund friend of mine this morning who told me the German paper he read said that they were abandoning Greece. I replied, ?That?s funny, the German paper I read said that they were abandoning Spain.? What ECB rescue funds that are in place are being challenged in the German Supreme Court, creating further uncertainty.

Travel around European main streets, as I have done for the last 10 days, and the ?FOR SALE? signs are everywhere. These are not a signal that I should rush out and buy equities right now, no matter how high the dividends are. They will be higher still, later.

All of this is setting up for an August that could be grizzly. A Fed disappointment will lead to a rapid unwind of the recent stock market rally, and could take us down to the 2012 low at 1,266 pronto, or more. A pop to a 1.25% yield in the ten-year Treasury is a chip shot.

 

 

 

 

Sign of the August to Come?

 

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DougD

Report from London, Part I

Diary

I am writing this report on the Eurostar Express train 300 feet under the English Channel, which is speeding its way from London to Paris at 200 miles per hour.

Waking up in my suite on the Queen Mary 2 at the port of Southampton the other day, the first thing I noticed was that dreadful postwar English architecture. The Germans tried to bomb this place flat to block the shipment of American supplies during WWII, and in the rush to rebuild, style and taste were left by the wayside.

Walking out on my private deck I was greeted with an entirely different view. The pier next to us was parked bumper to bumper with US exports of Caterpillar (CAT) heavy bulldozers and John Deer (DE) tractors, the products of two of my favorite companies. God bless America! Who says we?re in decline?

 

God Bless America

I saw something else too, Austin Minis, thousands and thousands of them in every conceivable color and design. They crowded the docks, packed every parking structure and lot, and railcars brought in hundreds more by the hour. Roll-on-roll-off ships were loading 3,000 each for shipment to the US.

Who owns Austin Motors these days? Who else but the Germans? In a mere 60 years they have flipped from blocking imports to expediting exports from this southern English transportation hub. History may not repeat itself, but it certainly does rhyme.

To say that much of London is dreading the coming Olympic Games is a vast understatement. Much of the central part of the city has been closed to the public, with parks dedicated to events, and roads closed off to games participants only. Accommodation is so short that an entrepreneurial few have rented out their back yards for visitors to pitch tents.

There are rampant fears that Internet speeds will slow to the point of unusability, putting major multinationals out of business.? The cell phone network is supposed to crash from the backbreaking traffic load. The forecast is for rain on the opening ceremonies. Oh, and a giant asteroid will destroy the earth, at least according to an overwhelmingly downbeat media.

The security is overwhelming. Marine helicopters circle the city with crack snipers on board, the RAF is using fighters to fly combat air patrols, and the army has mounted ground to air missiles of rooftops. I hope they don?t shoot down their own planes. I asked some government officials if I could get an early peak at the Olympic Park and was given a rare flat out ?no?.

Some 4,000 tons of sand sit in front of Buckingham Palace awaiting construction of the courts for the women?s beach volleyball competition. England is suffering the wettest summer in history, and if it doesn?t warm up, the contestants, horror upon horrors, may have to wear clothes! As a result, the black market price for these tickets has fallen below $2,000 each.

More on my report from London tomorrow.

John Thomas
The Mad hedge Fund Trader

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DougD

Testimonial

Testimonials

You may not be the only renaissance man around today but you certainly must be the most unselfish. We vicariously live what you are living today and what you have experienced in the past through your wonderful prose. Oh, and by the, we also get paid (profits)!!

John, go see my doctor in New York next time you are there and tell him I sent you. I want you to live forever. He may not provide you with that but he likely will turn back the clock 15 years.

Again, thank you,
Jay
Greensboro, NC

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DougD

June 24, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?I used to tell lies. But I?ve given it up, because the field has become overrun with amateurs,? said the great American 19th century humorist, Mark Twain.

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (FXY) Expiration - July 23, 2012

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-07-23 09:38:032012-07-23 09:38:03Trade Alert - (FXY) Expiration - July 23, 2012
DougD

SOLD OUT Last Chance to Come Join Me for the Zermatt, Switzerland July 27, 2012 Seminar

Lunch

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Apls in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, July 27, 2012. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnaps will be made available, but no food. You are welcome to attend in your mountain climbing gear, if necessary.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $220.

I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The event will be held at a central Zermatt hotel with a great Matterhorn view,? the details of which will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store at http://madhedgefundradio.com/category/luncheons/ and click on ?Zermatt Strategy Seminar.? Or simply click on the button below:

 

 

 

[button size="large" color=(blue) link="http://madhedgefundradio.com/buy-tickets-zermatt-july-27-2012-lunch/"]Order Luncheon Tickets[/button]

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