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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert – (FXY) November 30, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

November 30, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-30 10:00:482015-11-30 10:00:48Trade Alert - (FXY) November 30, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 30, 2015 – MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

November 30, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-30 09:18:332015-11-30 09:18:33November 30, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 30, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 30, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DEFLATION IS ACCELERATING),
(USO), (CORN), ($BDI),
(THE WORST TRADE OF ALL TIME), (GLD), (GDX)

United States Oil (USO)
Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
Baltic Dry Index ($BDI)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

November 30, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-30 01:08:562015-11-30 01:08:56November 30, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Deflation is Accelerating

Diary, Newsletter

A number of friends have recently approached me asking the best way to refinance their home.

Should they be ultra conservative and lock in a historically low 3.9% conventional fixed rate 30-year loan? Or should they throw caution to the wind and be seduced by a 5/1 ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) available for half the monthly payment?

I tell them that the answer is obvious. All they have to do is closely watch the iron ore market for Chinese delivery.

Last week, the price of this principal raw material for steel fell to $43.5 per metric tonne, the lowest since the 2008 crash, off a gut churning 77% from its 2010 high.

I don?t think I?ll be singing ?Waltzing Matilda? in the shower anytime soon. That?s the national anthem of Australia, the world?s largest producer of the orange rocks.

If my answer puzzles them, I then direct them to the recent statement by the Saudi Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi. He says his kingdom will continue its present record levels of oil production, even if the price plummets to $20 a barrel.

If they then appear perplexed, I point out to them that US ethanol production just surpassed a once unimaginable 1 million barrels a day, a new all time high. Corn prices have fallen so far that it is cheaper to burn food than to eat it.

At this point, the expression on my friends? faces is now one on complete befuddlement. They start checking their watch, their iPhone for any new text messages, look for new tweets, or updates to their Facebook account.

Then I move in for the kill.

I point out that the Baltic Freight Index ($BDX) has just hit an eight year low. This is the widely followed index for the cost of moving bulk raw materials, like coal, grain, and iron ore.

Now my friends are utterly clueless. Wasn?t this supposed to be a conversation about homes, loans, and interest rates.

If they still don?t get it, I then spell it out more clearly, with the appropriate soaring logic and literary flourishes.

The bottom line for all of these disparate data points is that deflation is accelerating.

The continuing collapsing cost of all commodities is still driving prices relentlessly downward. This year, I think only the price of coca has risen.

Adding fuel to the fire is the relentless march of technology, which replacing expensive humans with cheap machines, further lowering costs.

The offshoring of jobs, once a major driver of the ongoing price collapse, is barely a factor anymore. Rapidly rising wages are steadily pricing Chinese labor out of the market.

Sure, there has been some modest cost increases on the US wage front with the new minimum wage movement. Many cities like Seattle and San Francisco have already mandated wage hikes from $8 to $15 an hour.

But this will only bring higher prices for those who eat fast food cheeseburgers, tacos, and burritos, which my doctors have expressly forbidden me to consume.

What this means is that interest rates are going to remain far lower for longer than even the Federal Reserve can imagine.

Sure, we will get a 25 basis point rise in December, followed by a second one in March, or June. But that may be it.

As unbelievable as it may seem, we might go into the next recession WITH INTEREST RATES ALREADY CLOSE TO ZERO!

All of this makes my friends? choice about how to refinance their home a complete no-brainer. Take the 5/1 ARM, NOW!

Chances are that we will enter a recession sometime in the next five years, before the first five-year interest rate reset. Then they can refinance again, probably at an interest rate even lower than the subterranean one they are getting now.

They can also reconsider the 30-year fixed rate at that time, as I expect inflation to return with a vengeance sometime in the 2020?s.

More than a few homeowners have already figured out that the only way to afford sky-high housing prices in San Francisco and New York is to finance them with the ultra low giveaway cost of money.

The only pre-conditions for this plan to work is for them to keep their jobs, the payments on time, and their credit rating up.

At this stage, my friends thank me effusively and rush off to call their loan brokers.

People who have known me a long time are used to me to making incredible, spectacular, out of consensus long-term forecasts, which eventually come true.

Yes, gold is going from $34 to $1,000 an ounce (1972).

Of course the Nikkei Average is about to rise tenfold from Y3,500 to Y35,000 (1982).

Dow 10,000 by 2,000? You betcha (1992)!

Why can?t oil collapse from $100 to $50 if we make peace with Iran (2014)?

Consider it all part of being Mad.

Iron OreSo, Where?s the Inflation?

BDI 11-25-15

CORN 11-25-5

WTIC 11-25-15

Ali al-Naimi$20 Oil? No Problem!

 

November 30, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Ali-al-Naimi-e1448650265142.jpg 265 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-30 01:07:352015-11-30 01:07:35Deflation is Accelerating
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Worst Trade of All Time

Diary, Newsletter

Now that I see gold closing today at a new six year low today I am reminded of one of the worst calls I have seen in my 50 year trading career.

Of course, readers of this letter have been avoiding the barbarous relic like the plague since I called the top 4 ? years ago.

One of the great asset management blunders of all time has to be the European Community?s decision to sell its gold reserves in the wake of the launch of the Euro in 1998.

The decision led to the fairly rapid sale of 3,800 metric tonnes of the yellow metal at an average price of $280/ounce, reaping about $56 billion, according to the Financial Times.

Today with gold at $1,056/ounce, the stash would be worth $211 billion. On top of this, the Swiss National Bank is poorer by $60 billion, after offloading 1,550 tons of the barbaric relic.

The large scale, indiscriminate selling depressed gold prices in the early part of the last decade, and made the final bottom of a 20-year move down.

It is a classic example of what happens when bureaucrats take over the money management business, ditching the best performing investment on the eve of a long-term bull market. The funds raised were largely placed in poorly performing national Eurobonds.

Where did all that gold go? To hedge funds, gold bugs, and inflationistas of many stripes, despite the fact that long dreaded price hyperinflation never showed.

The good news for gold bugs is that these reserves are largely drawn down now, and future selling will trail off in the years ahead. The shrinking supply can only be positive for prices.

Someday.

GOLD 11-27-15

?

Steve MartinNever Let a European Civil Servant Trade Your Portfolio

November 30, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Steve-Martin.jpg 208 297 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-30 01:06:482015-11-30 01:06:48The Worst Trade of All Time
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert – (DIS) November 27, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

November 27, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Mickey-Mouse-e1448641710923.jpg 400 383 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-27 12:44:332015-11-27 12:44:33Follow Up to Trade Alert - (DIS) November 27, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert – (DIS) November 27, 2015

Diary

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

November 27, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-27 11:29:202015-11-27 11:29:20Trade Alert - (DIS) November 27, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 27, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 27, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DECEMBER 2 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(SURVIVING THANKSGIVING)

November 27, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-27 01:08:132015-11-27 01:08:13November 27, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 25, 2015 – MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

November 25, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-25 09:25:412015-11-25 09:25:41November 25, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 25, 2015

Diary

Global Market Comments
November 25, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE BIG EQUITY PLAY OF 2016),
(AMZN), (FB), (NFLX), (HEDJ), (DXJ), (XLF), (FXE), (FXY),
(NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS),
(CHINA?S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE)

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Facebook, Inc. (FB)
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)
Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)

November 25, 2015/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-25 01:09:532015-11-25 01:09:53November 25, 2015
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