While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
November 9, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BLOCKBUSTER OCTOBER NONFARM PAYROLL AND YOUR PORTFOLIO),
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXY), (YCS),
(BANK OF AMERICA IS BREAKING OUT ALL OVER),
(BAC), (XLF), (TLT)
(THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
You could almost hear the roof blow off the top of the New York Stock Exchange when they announced the October nonfarm payroll. At a mind blowing 271,000, it came in at double the low ball pessimistic estimates.
The headline unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%, a decade low. The 4% handle beckons next month.
Bonds (TLT), the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS), the Euro (FXE), (EUO), oil (USO), and gold (GLD) crashed.
Banks stocks (KBE), the dollar (UUP) rocketed. Stocks were indifferent, as they already saw this move coming in October.
I have been observing these asset classes and their interrelationships for a half century, and every one is simultaneously pointing to the same conclusion. There is a gigantic ?RISK ON? move unfolding for the rest of 2015, and possibly for the next six months.
If you are one of the many new readers of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader who only recently just started reading this letter, you can now rush out and buy back all of those stocks you sold at the bottom in August because other newsletters told you to do so, like everyone else.
If you are one of my long-term subscribers, you already knew this was coming and positioned for it accordingly.
GOTTA LOVE THOSE SHORT BOND AND JAPANESE YEN POSITIONS!
There was really no place for the bears to hide in the October numbers.
YOY gains in wages were biggest since July, 2009. Private sector job growth was an eye-popping +268,000. The August and September payroll reports were revised up 12,000.
Business and professional services saw a +78,000 gain. Health care tacked on +45,000 jobs, while retail picked up +44,000. Mining lost -5,000 jobs, as usual.
The truly significant development with this data set was that the broader U-6 unemployment rate finally broke 10% for the first time in eight years, dropping to 9.8%.
The October number RULES OUT ANY CHANCE THAT THE FED WILL NOT RAISE RATES at the December 16-17 meeting.
Now that the economy is clearly strengthening, the global stock markets have stabilized, and a floor has been put under China, the path is clear for two such rate rises.
A new debate will now ensue. Will the Fed accelerate its tightening policy, moving beyond just two modest increases?
PERISH THE THOUGHT!
Here are the implications for your IRA, 401k, and pension fund.
*Stocks - sideways first, then higher. They already anticipated this figure with the heroic rise in October.
*Bonds - Keep falling until the next recession, whenever that is.
*Commodities - down first, then up big.
*Foreign Currencies - fall for another few years.
*Precious Metals - drop to new four year lows.
*Volatility - stays low until the next ?Sell in May.?
*The Ags - put in a bottom and then rise with El Ni?o.
*Real Estate - keeps rising as buyers rush to beat bigger rate increases.
THERE IS A REALLY EXCITING POSSIBILITY NOW SETTING UP FOR THE YEAR END.
Originally I thought that a mid-December rate rise then would trigger a mini correction in the major stock indexes. Today?s nonfarm payroll eliminates that uncertainty, and the correction that went with it.
Instead, we are getting that mini correction now. It will only last several more days. After that, it is UP, UP, AND AWAY.
We could well ring out this year with the markets at the top tick of the year. Now that?s a thought!
Just thought you?d like to know.
In view of the blockbuster October nonfarm payroll report, and the collapse of the bond market that followed, it is time to take a cold, steely eyed look, and the financials, especially Bank of America (BAC).
What did the stock do? It rocketed by 6.5%, along with the rest of the market, hitting four month high of $18.09. I hate it when that happens, being right on the fundamentals, and wrong on the market timing.
You are getting the reaction that the bang up Q3 earnings report should have delivered, just one week late. The shares appear to be taking a run at a new multi year high.
It was a stellar report, with earnings beating expectations handily on both the top and the bottom lines. Expenses are in free-fall, and the company?s cost of funds is plummeting, as lower cost deposit surge.
Analysts were blown away when they saw after tax profits come in at $4.5 billion, producing a diluted earnings per share of $0.37. The company returned a staggering $3 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and an aggressive share buy back program.
Every major business segment showed big year on year improvements, including consumer and business banking. Global wealth and investment management knocked the cover off the ball.
The sudden burst of market volatility gave a nice push in income to the global banking division.
Deposits from mobile banking jumped. Average deposits are up 4%. Subterranean interest rates kept income there flat.
Given the bank?s tremendous upside leverage, many analysts are now pegging the stock with a $30 handle.
There is another play here. (BAC) is highly geared to raising interest rates, which will enable them to lend money out at higher interest rates, increasing their spread. Think of it as long dated put option on the iShares Barclays 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).
That is not a bad position to have on board, given that we probably put in a multigenerational spike in bond prices last week.
Because of the bank?s long and well-publicized problems with regulators dating back to before the 2008 financial crisis, (BAC) became toxic waste for many portfolio mangers.
The end result of that has been to make the best-run banks in the industry also the cheapest.
I have a feeling that I will be visiting the trough here often, and generously.
Time to Visit the ATM Again
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
November 6, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WELCOME TO THE SIX WEEK YEAR),
(SPY), (TLT), (BAC), (GS),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
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