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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 25, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 25, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(A DAY IN THE LIFE OF THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER),
(SPY), (SPX), (QQQ), (AAPL), (VIX), (FSLR), (SCTY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (GLD), (GDX), (USO)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
United States Oil (USO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-25 01:07:512016-01-25 01:07:51January 25, 2016
DougD

January 22, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-01-22 09:15:212016-01-22 09:15:21January 22, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 22, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 22, 2015
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL SHORT SELLING ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(SHORT SELLING SCHOOL 101),
(SH), (SDS), (PSQ), (DOG), (RWM), (SPXU), (AAPL),
(VIX), (VXX), (IPO), (MTUM), (SPHB), (HDGE)

ProShares Short S&P500 (SH)
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)
ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ)
ProShares Short Dow30 (DOG)
ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM)
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO)
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor (MTUM)
PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB)
AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF (HDGE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-22 01:07:092016-01-22 01:07:09January 22, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) January 21, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-21 11:29:282016-01-21 11:29:28Trade Alert - (SPY) January 21, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-21 09:42:112016-01-21 09:42:11January 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 21, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 21, 2016
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL CRASH ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(HOW TO TRADE A CRASH),
(TEN STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),
(SPY), (QQQ), (USO), (IWM), (JNK)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)
United States Oil (USO)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-21 01:08:242016-01-21 01:08:24January 21, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Trade a Crash

Diary, Newsletter

I have a feeling that you are going to really need to know how to trade a crash in the coming weeks.

Due to our recent blockbuster performance, up 39% last year alone, we have also taken in a large number of new subscribers. They should read this piece carefully and commit it to memory, and have the key points tattooed on their forearm.

There won?t be time to look for these words to the wise, once the market?s wheels really fall off.

In my half-century of trading stocks, I have been through quite a few crashes.

When the Nifty Fifty collapsed in 1973, everyone thought it was the end of the world. The Dow Average fell to 650. President Nixon resigned shortly afterwards.

The 1987 crash certainly left its scars. My equity department at Morgan Stanley lost $75 million in one day, then a staggering amount. We had to pedal triple time to make it all back by the end of the month. I remember that George Soros puked right at the very low.

The 1998 emerging market debacle certainly put our wits to the test. That little affair ultimately led to the Russian debt default and the blow up of Long Term Capital Management, Nobel Prize winners and all.

The 2000 Dotcom Crash was one to remember. At least the parties leading up to the peak made it all worth it. But a lot of friends lost their careers and their homes over that one.

2008-09? That one sent us all back to our history books searching for comparisons with the Great Depression.

It turns out that we were only in for a Great Recession instead and a 52% market decline instead of a 90% one. Not a single person alive thought markets would triple over the next six years, as they have done.

The 2010 Flash Crash, the last time we were down 1,000 points in a single day? Seems like it was only yesterday, just water off your back.

So given my long history of surviving market melt downs, I have to tell you that the August swoon doesn?t even rank in the top ten.

But then again, it?s not over yet either.

So trading crashes is a skill set that every long-term investor is going to need. It is an ability that may save your wealth, if not your life.

I have listed below my twelve rules for trading crashes that I have compiled off the back of decades of hard earned experience.

TWELVE RULES FOR TRADING A CRASH

1) Shrink your trading book to a single position so it?s easier to watch.

2) Shrink your size so it?s small enough for you to sleep at night?even during a crash.

3) Watch the (VIX) as a leading indicator. This time, junk bonds (HYG) and the Russell 200 (IWM) are functioning as pathfinders as well.

4) Don?t be afraid to trade, since now is when risk is the lowest and the rewards the highest. Don?t give up, throw up your hands in despair, and go into hiding like everyone else is.

5) You wanted to buy on a dip? This is a dip. Be careful what you wish for.

6) Time is compressed during a crash. Share price movements that normally take months occur in minutes. Be prepared to do a lot of trading.

7) Liquidity disappears and spreads widen dramatically. Basically, the market wants you to go away. Some of the lesser ETF?s take the biggest hits, as no one wants to touch them.

8) Expect system breakdowns everywhere as they are hyper stressed. Trading platforms can seize up, computers freeze, and the Internet noticeably slows down.

9) If you have any kind of leverage, now is when your brokers will come after you. Margin requirements can double or quadruple overnight with no notice. If you can?t cough up the extra money they will execute a forced liquidation of your account at terrible prices.

10) When you buy single names, focus on quality. It is a rare chance to buy Cadillacs at a discount. Be careful, because fundamentals mean nothing during a crash. Cash is King.

11) Don?t even think about calling your broker. You?re on your own. They?ll just put you on perpetual hold or throw the handset down on the floor and burst into tears, as happened to me during the 1987 crash when I tried to buy.

12) Maintain discipline, exercise strict risk control, and let the other people panic. Now is when you define yourself as a trader. Anyone can trade a bull market. But only a few can handle the bear version.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT, GOOD LUCK AND GOOD TRADING!

 

INDU 3-1-88

INDU 12-31-98

INDU 12-30-11

 

John ThomasHow to Keep Your Head Above Water in a Crash

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/John-Thomas4-e1440624214232.jpg 400 317 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-21 01:07:372016-01-21 01:07:37How to Trade a Crash
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Ten Stocks to Buy at the Bottom

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Suddenly, the consolidation turned into a correction and maybe even a bear market.

A crucial part of trading a crash is knowing what to do at the bottom. Don?t worry. You?ll receive a flurry of text alerts from me right when that happens.

Many individual investors simply run to the bathroom and lock the door, hoping nobody knocks on the door for a couple of days.

Worse, they dump every stock they have. That?s what makes market bottoms.

Trades that once seemed impossible can now get done, provided you use limit orders.

Let me get this right. Stocks are crashing because:

1) The Federal Reserve isn?t going to raise interest rates anymore.
2) The price of oil has dropped 84% in five years.
3) Commodities have reached multi-decade lows.
4) The US dollar has suddenly stabilized.
5) Investors are yanking money from abroad and pouring it into the US on a flight to safety trade because it is the only place they can obtain a positive return, especially in stocks.

May I point out the screamingly obvious right here?

These are all reasons for 90% of US companies that borrow money and consume energy and commodities to increase earnings and to boost their share prices.

Only the 10% that derive revenues from ripping oil and commodities out of the ground should get hurt here.

Of course the market doesn?t know that. It is anything but rational when we hit big triple digit declines. There was only one direction on, and that was OUT.

And that is where you make your money

Margin clerks rule supreme, squeezing every bit of leverage out of their clients they can find.

The Dow and (SPY) are already posting large negative numbers for 2016.

Of course, I saw all of this coming a mile off.

I have been banging drums, pulling fire alarms, shooting off flare guns, and otherwise warning readers that the technical situation for the market was terrible ever since I went 100% into cash in December.

When the breakdown appeared imminent, I shot out Trade Alerts to sell short the S&P 500 (SPY) in size as fast as I could write them. And I started buying outright (SPY) puts for the first time in ages.

As a result of these sudden tactical moves, my model-trading portfolio has been keeping its head above water all month, up 2%. The Dow Average is off by a nausea inducing -10.7% at today?s low.

Yes, yes! All the hard work and research is paying off!

Ignore my musings at your peril!

What is even more stunning is that these declines are occurring in the face of US macro economic numbers that are going from strength to strength. The blockbuster December nonfarm payroll report of 292,000 is the real writing on the wall.

Housing, which accounts for about one third of the US economy, has been on fire. I?m sorry, but if you can?t find a parking space at Target, there is no recession.

Another crucial leg of the US economy, auto manufacturing, has been in overdrive. Auto sales are at a record 18 million annual rate, and some summer production shut downs have been cancelled.

That is, everywhere except Volkswagen.

With two of the most important legs firing on all cylinders, it?s clearly not about the economy, stupid!

There certainly hasn?t been a geopolitical event to justify moves of this magnitude.

As far as I can tell, Hitler has not invaded Poland, nor have the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor.

Sure, there is whining about China, which has the Shanghai Index approaching the 2,900 level once again, down 40% from the top.?

Which leads me to believe that all of this is nothing more than a temporary hiccup. A BIG Hofbrauhouse kind of hiccup, but a hiccup nonetheless.

In a zero interest rate world, stocks only have to fall back from a price earnings multiple of 18 to 15 to flush out a ton of buying, and they will have done just that when the (SPY) hits $174.

THAT IS MY LINE IN THE SAND.

If nothing else, corporate buybacks should reaccelerate here, which could reach $1 trillion in 2016. Some 75% companies exit their quiet period by February 5 and can resume buying.

That could signal an interim market bottom.

The great thing about this selloff is that the best quality companies have fallen the most. This has been a function of the heavy sovereign wealth fund selling the bridge oil deficits.

After all, when share prices are in free fall, you have to sell what you can, not what you want to. It is only human to realize profits rather than incur losses, so quality has been trashed.

I am therefore going to give you a list of ten of my favorite stocks to buy at the bottom, highlighting the sectors that will lead us into a yearend rally.

The themes here are home builders, consumer discretionary, autos, solar, old technology, and international. I?m sorry, but the entire interest sensitive sector is on hold for the rest of the year, thanks to likely Fed inaction.

Watch out, because when I sense that the market has burned itself out on the downside, the Trade Alerts are going to be coming hot and heavy.

You have been forewarned!

Read ?em and weep with joy!

10 Stocks to Buy at the Bottom

Lennar Homes (LEN)
Home Depot (HD)
Microsoft (MSFT)
General Electric (GE)
Tesla (TSLA)
Apple (AAPL)
First Solar (FSLR)
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
Wisdom Tree Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ)

SSEC 1-20-16

INDU 1-20-16

USO 1-20-16

VIX 1-20-16

JNK 1-20-16

John ThomasFinally, All the Hard Work is Paying Off

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/John-Thomas5-e1437678792272.jpg 299 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-21 01:06:152016-01-21 01:06:15Ten Stocks to Buy at the Bottom
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) #4 - January 20, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-20 15:45:162016-01-20 15:45:16Trade Alert - (SPY) #4 - January 20, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) #3 - January 20, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-20 14:29:282016-01-20 14:29:28Trade Alert - (SPY) #3 - January 20, 2016
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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